Winning the district secures an automatic place in the FHSAA playoffs. The remaining positions in each eight-team regional field are filled through the at-large process, creating two connected races inside every district: the fight for the championship and the broader pursuit of a postseason berth.

The Florida Power Rankings Index provides an independent preseason model of how those races could develop. Each district section includes a standardized 10-game record projection, district championship probability, overall playoff probability and Class 6A state championship probability.

The projected records are not game-by-game schedule predictions. They represent the level at which each program is expected to perform across a standard 10-game regular season based on its preseason FPRI rating and recent results.

District championship probability measures each team’s chance of securing its district’s automatic playoff berth. Playoff probability includes both the district-title route and the possibility of qualifying as an at-large team. Class 6A state championship probability measures each team’s chance of winning the classification title.

The numbers show separation rather than certainty. Lake Mary, Vero Beach, Venice and West Broward begin with commanding advantages in their districts, while races such as Districts 6A-2, 6A-4, 6A-10 and 6A-11 present considerably less separation. A probability above 50% establishes a projected favorite, but it does not settle the race before a game is played.

MaxPreps is the FHSAA’s official rankings source for playoff qualification, seeding and regional placement. The projected bracket included here is not an official FHSAA bracket or a prediction of the final MaxPreps rankings. It is an educated preseason estimate of what the Class 6A field and first-round matchups could look like if teams perform near their current FPRI projections.

That distinction also applies to hosting. The model identifies projected district champions and at-large qualifiers, then seeds the regional field by FPRI rating to illustrate a possible bracket. The official seeds and matchups will ultimately be determined through the FHSAA process using the MaxPreps rankings.

These projections will change as results replace preseason expectations. District races will tighten or separate, at-large positions will shift and the regional picture will become clearer throughout the season.

The Open Division is not included in the district tables or the Class 6A bracket projection. That statewide eight-team field draws programs from all six FHSAA classifications and will be covered separately.

Below is the complete preseason outlook for all 16 Class 6A districts, followed by an FPRI-modeled playoff bracket for each of the classification’s four regions.

District 6A-1

Flagler Palm Coast holds a clear advantage in a district with one primary challenger and a tightly packed middle. Its 53.3% championship probability is nearly double Creekside’s, while the remaining four teams each sit below 10%.

Flagler Palm Coast is the projected favorite, with the model calling for a rebound from its 3-7 finish in 2025. Creekside remains a credible challenger despite a second consecutive losing record, while Tocoi Creek and First Coast form the next tier with identical 5-5 projections. Atlantic Coast faces a steeper climb, and Sandalwood remains well behind the rest of the field after three consecutive seasons with one victory or fewer.

Flagler Palm Coast also owns the district’s strongest postseason position, but Creekside’s 44.5% playoff probability gives the district a realistic second path after its 2025 regional quarterfinal appearance. Tocoi Creek and First Coast sit closer to the playoff bubble, with First Coast’s outlook following a run to the FIT regional semifinals. Flagler Palm Coast carries the district’s highest statewide 6A championship probability, though the district produces one modest class-title possibility rather than a group of prominent contenders.

VOTE

District 6A-2

DeLand leads a three-team race in which every contender is projected to finish 8-2. The Bulldogs’ 52.8% district championship probability provides a clear edge, but Spruce Creek and Mainland combine to make this one of the classification’s more competitive district races.

DeLand is the projected favorite after a 12-1 season and regional final appearance in 2025. Spruce Creek, which has posted three consecutive winning seasons, is the primary challenger, while Mainland’s 17.6% probability keeps the 2025 regional finalist firmly in the race. University’s 5-5 projection represents a substantial rebound from last season’s 1-9 finish, but the championship gap remains steep.

All three projected leaders have meaningful postseason paths, with DeLand approaching near-universal playoff positioning and Spruce Creek and Mainland also holding strong probabilities. DeLand carries the district’s highest statewide 6A championship probability at 5.0%, followed by Spruce Creek and Mainland, giving the district three legitimate class-title possibilities rather than a single isolated contender.

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District 6A-3

Lake Mary is the overwhelming projected favorite in a district with little uncertainty at the top. Its 97.5% district championship probability leaves Seminole as a distant challenger, despite the model projecting another strong season in Sanford.

Lake Mary’s projection continues a run that produced consecutive 12-3 seasons and the 2025 state championship. Seminole is projected to rebound sharply from last season’s 5-6 finish, but the separation in district championship probability remains substantial. Lake Brantley’s 5-5 projection would represent a slight step back from its 6-4 season, while Apopka remains well removed from the district race after consecutive losing records.

Lake Mary has the district’s strongest postseason position by a wide margin and carries its highest statewide 6A championship probability. Its class-title figure reflects only the traditional classification championship path and is narrower than its broader postseason outlook. Seminole retains a realistic playoff path after reaching the 2025 regional quarterfinals, while Lake Brantley and Apopka sit on the outside edge of the postseason picture.

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District 6A-4

Boone holds the advantage in a competitive two-team race with Winter Park. The gap between their district championship probabilities is meaningful but not decisive, while Hagerty remains within range of disrupting the top pairing.

Boone is the projected favorite after improving from consecutive .500-or-worse seasons to a 10-2 record and regional semifinal appearance in 2025. Winter Park is the clear primary challenger, with the 7-3 projection extending a five-year run without a losing season. Hagerty occupies a distinct third tier, while Timber Creek faces the steepest climb after three consecutive losing records.

Boone and Winter Park both have strong postseason positions, and each advanced in the 2025 state playoffs. Hagerty’s playoff probability is considerably stronger than its district championship probability, giving the Huskies a plausible postseason path even without winning the district. Boone carries the district’s highest statewide 6A championship probability, but the figures point to several modest possibilities rather than one dominant class-title contender.

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District 6A-5

Lake Nona is the clear projected favorite, holding a district championship probability more than twice St. Cloud’s. St. Cloud remains a credible challenger, while the separation grows sharply beyond the top two.

Lake Nona’s projection follows consecutive winning seasons, including an 8-4 record and regional semifinal appearance in 2025. St. Cloud also went 8-3 and reached the regional quarterfinals, supporting its placement as the primary challenger. Tohopekaliga occupies the middle after three consecutive seasons at or just above .500, while Harmony and Gateway face steeper climbs despite improved records in 2025.

Lake Nona has the district’s strongest playoff position and highest statewide 6A championship probability. St. Cloud remains close to a coin-flip postseason path, while Tohopekaliga’s playoff probability is notably stronger than its district championship probability. Harmony and Gateway sit farther from the postseason picture, leaving the district with one modest statewide class-title contender and several smaller possibilities.

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District 6A-6

Edgewater leads a strong three-team race, but Dr. Phillips and West Orange keep the district from becoming a runaway. All three are projected for at least eight victories, with Olympia separated sharply from the leading group.

Edgewater is the projected favorite after five consecutive seasons with at least 10 victories, including a 12-1 record and regional final appearance in 2025. Dr. Phillips matches Edgewater’s 9-1 projection and remains the primary challenger after also reaching a regional final last season. West Orange follows consecutive 10-win seasons and stays within the competitive top tier, while Olympia faces a steep climb after back-to-back losing records.

Edgewater and Dr. Phillips share 99.0% playoff probabilities, with West Orange also holding a strong postseason position after reaching the 2025 regional semifinals. All three carry meaningful statewide 6A championship probabilities, led by Edgewater at 6.9%, giving the district several credible class-title possibilities. Their statewide class-title figures are narrower than their broader postseason outlooks.

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District 6A-7

Ocoee is the decisive projected favorite in a district with substantial separation between first place and the rest of the field. East Ridge is the nearest challenger, but its district championship probability trails Ocoee’s by nearly 70 percentage points.

Ocoee’s 6-4 projection would mark a rebound from consecutive nonwinning seasons and gives the Knights a clear edge in the district race. East Ridge is projected to step back from its 6-5 finish and regional quarterfinal appearance in 2025 but remains the primary alternative. Horizon and Celebration face steeper climbs, with Celebration projected to match its 1-9 record from last season.

Ocoee also holds the district’s strongest postseason position by a wide margin after reaching the 2025 regional quarterfinals. East Ridge sits closer to the playoff bubble, while Horizon and Celebration have narrower paths. Ocoee carries the district’s only notable statewide 6A championship probability, though the figure remains modest at 1.3%.

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District 6A-8

Vero Beach is the overwhelming projected favorite after reaching the 2025 state championship game. Its 96.5% district championship probability leaves Fort Pierce Central as the only credible challenger, with a wide separation between the top two and the rest of the field.

Vero Beach’s projection continues a five-year run of winning seasons, highlighted by a 14-1 record and state runner-up finish in 2025. Fort Pierce Central follows a 10-2 season and regional semifinal appearance but remains a distant second in the district race. Centennial occupies a separate third tier, while Treasure Coast’s 3-7 projection would represent progress from its 0-9 finish last season.

Vero Beach owns the district’s strongest postseason position and highest statewide 6A championship probability. Its statewide class-title figure is narrower than its broader postseason outlook. Fort Pierce Central sits near the playoff bubble despite its recent postseason run, while Centennial and Treasure Coast face significantly smaller paths.

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District 6A-9

Ridge Community is the projected favorite in a district without a team expected to post a winning record. Its 58.8% district championship probability creates a clear advantage, while Winter Haven leads a compressed group competing for the primary challenger position.

Ridge Community’s 5-5 projection represents a modest improvement from its 5-6 finish and regional quarterfinal appearance in 2025. Winter Haven is the nearest challenger but is projected to step back from last season’s 6-5 record and regional quarterfinal appearance. Davenport and Poinciana are separated by one percentage point in the district race, while Haines City and George Jenkins face the steepest climbs.

Ridge Community owns the district’s strongest postseason position, with its playoff probability standing well above its district championship figure. Winter Haven remains within reach of the playoff picture, while Davenport and Poinciana hold smaller paths near the bubble. Ridge Community also carries the district’s highest statewide 6A championship probability, but the model identifies no major class-title contender.

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District 6A-10

Plant City holds the edge in a competitive district with Lennard positioned as the primary challenger. Durant and Newsome remain within the broader race, but the probabilities establish a distinct top two.

Plant City is the projected favorite after consecutive winning seasons and a 2025 regional quarterfinal appearance. Lennard’s matching 7-3 projection continues a recent rise that produced records of 6-4 and 8-3 over the past two seasons. Durant is projected to rebound from a 5-6 finish, while Newsome’s 5-5 projection would also mark improvement from 2025. Riverview faces the steepest climb after reaching the regional quarterfinals last season.

Plant City owns the district’s strongest postseason position, but Lennard also has a realistic playoff path after its 2025 regional quarterfinal appearance. Durant sits closer to the playoff bubble, with its playoff probability substantially stronger than its district championship probability, while Newsome remains within range. Plant City carries the district’s highest statewide 6A championship probability, though the district presents several modest possibilities rather than a dominant class-title contender.

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District 6A-11

Alonso holds a narrow edge in the classification’s most balanced district race so far. Strawberry Crest sits just 5.5 percentage points behind, while Palm Harbor University remains firmly within range of the top two.

Alonso is the projected favorite, with the 6-4 forecast matching its 2025 record. Strawberry Crest has posted winning records in three of the past four seasons and stands as a credible challenger despite its 5-5 projection. Palm Harbor University adds a viable third possibility after finishing 6-5 in 2025, while Steinbrenner’s projection represents a rebound from last season’s 1-9 finish.

Alonso and Strawberry Crest each sit near the midpoint of the playoff picture, and Palm Harbor University retains a smaller but realistic path after reaching the 2025 FIT regional semifinals. Alonso carries the district’s highest statewide 6A championship probability, but the narrow separation across the top three points to several modest possibilities rather than one clear class-title contender.

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District 6A-12

Venice is the overwhelming projected favorite, with Riverview standing as the district’s only meaningful challenger. The gap between those two is substantial, and the remaining four teams each carry a district championship probability of 0.1% or lower.

Venice’s projection extends a five-year run of winning seasons that includes four appearances in the state semifinals or beyond, most recently a 9-4 finish and state semifinal appearance in 2025. Riverview is the clear second choice after going 9-2-1 and reaching the regional semifinals last season. Lakewood Ranch, Sarasota and Lehigh form a compressed middle tier, while North Port faces the steepest climb after a 1-9 season.

Venice and Riverview both hold strong postseason positions, while the rest of the district sits well below the playoff midpoint. Venice carries the district’s highest statewide 6A championship probability, followed by Riverview, giving the district two class-title possibilities with a clear separation between them and the remaining field. Their statewide class-title figures are narrower than their broader postseason outlooks.

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District 6A-13

Jupiter is the projected favorite, but Palm Beach Central and Dr. Joaquin Garcia give the district a credible three-team race. Jupiter’s 54.3% district championship probability establishes a clear edge without closing the door on the two leading challengers.

Jupiter’s projection extends a run of three consecutive seasons with at least nine victories, including a 10-1 finish in 2025. Palm Beach Central’s matching 8-2 projection represents a rebound from last season’s 6-5 record, while Dr. Joaquin Garcia remains firmly in the race after improving from 1-9 in 2023 to 11-3 and an FIT championship in 2025. Santaluces occupies a separate fourth tier, with the remaining three teams facing steep climbs.

Jupiter holds the strongest postseason position, while Palm Beach Central also has a solid playoff path after a 2025 regional quarterfinal appearance. Dr. Joaquin Garcia sits almost exactly at the midpoint of the playoff picture, and Santaluces retains a smaller possibility after reaching the regional quarterfinals last season. Jupiter carries the district’s highest statewide 6A championship probability, with Palm Beach Central and Dr. Joaquin Garcia providing two additional but more modest class-title possibilities.

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District 6A-14

Spanish River is the clear projected favorite in a district with a compressed group behind it. Boca Raton and Nova lead the chase, but neither reaches a 20% district championship probability.

Spanish River’s 6-4 projection would extend a run of three consecutive winning seasons and gives it a substantial edge over the field. Boca Raton is the primary challenger after falling from 10-2 in 2024 to 5-5 last season, while Nova holds a similar position in the middle of the race. South Plantation, Park Vista and Coral Glades remain tightly grouped but face steeper championship paths.

Spanish River also owns the district’s strongest postseason position, with its playoff probability more than double that of every other team. Boca Raton and Nova hold smaller paths near the playoff bubble, while South Plantation’s outlook is more limited despite reaching the 2025 regional quarterfinals. Spanish River carries the district’s highest statewide 6A championship probability, but the model identifies no major class-title contender.

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District 6A-15

West Broward is the overwhelming projected favorite in an expanded six-team district. Western and Goleman lead the pursuit, but both sit more than 90 percentage points behind the defending state runner-up in district championship probability.

West Broward’s projection continues a steady rise from 4-5 in 2021 to 12-3 and a state runner-up finish in 2025. Western is projected to rebound from last season’s 4-7 record, while Goleman follows an 8-5 season and regional final appearance. Doral Academy and Cypress Bay share 5-5 projections, and Miami faces the steepest climb after going 0-9 in 2025.

West Broward holds the district’s strongest postseason position and highest statewide 6A championship probability by a wide margin. Western and Goleman sit below the playoff midpoint but remain the leading alternatives, while Doral Academy’s outlook follows a 2025 regional quarterfinal appearance. Cypress Bay and Miami have considerably narrower postseason paths.

VOTE

District 6A-16

Miami Palmetto is the clear projected favorite, with Columbus positioned as the primary challenger. The Panthers hold a 50.9-point advantage in district championship probability, while South Dade leads the next tier.

Miami Palmetto’s projection follows an 11-3 season and state semifinal appearance in 2025, giving the Panthers a clear edge at the top. Columbus is projected to rebound sharply from last season’s 4-8 finish after four consecutive winning seasons from 2021 through 2024. South Dade remains a distant third, while Homestead’s 4-6 projection would represent improvement after consecutive losing seasons.

Miami Palmetto owns the district’s strongest postseason position and highest statewide 6A championship probability. Columbus sits near the midpoint of the playoff picture after reaching the 2025 regional semifinals, while South Dade’s playoff probability remains notably stronger than its district championship probability following a regional quarterfinal appearance. The remaining three teams face much narrower postseason paths.

VOTE

Projected Playoff Field

Winning the district secures an automatic place in the FHSAA playoffs. The remaining positions in each eight-team regional field are filled through the at-large process, creating two connected races inside every district: the fight for the championship and the broader pursuit of a postseason berth.

The Florida Power Rankings Index provides an independent preseason model of how those races could develop. Each district section includes a standardized 10-game record projection, district championship probability, overall playoff probability and Class 5A state championship probability.

The projected records are not game-by-game schedule predictions. They represent the level at which each program is expected to perform across a standard 10-game regular season based on its preseason FPRI rating and recent results.

District championship probability measures each team’s chance of securing its district’s automatic playoff berth. Playoff probability includes both the district-title route and the possibility of qualifying as an at-large team. Class 5A state championship probability measures each team’s chance of winning the classification title.

The numbers show separation rather than certainty. Lakeland, West Boca Raton, St. Thomas Aquinas and Miami Southridge begin with overwhelming advantages, while races such as Nease against Mandarin, Mitchell against Gaither, the four-team field in District 5A-10 and Coconut Creek against Piper project to be much tighter. A probability above 50% establishes a projected favorite, but it does not settle the race before a game is played.

MaxPreps is the FHSAA’s official rankings source for playoff qualification, seeding and regional placement. The projected bracket included here is not an official FHSAA bracket or a prediction of the final MaxPreps rankings. It is an educated preseason estimate of what the Class 5A field and first-round matchups could look like if teams perform near their current FPRI projections.

That distinction also applies to hosting. The model identifies projected district champions and at-large qualifiers, then seeds the regional field by FPRI rating to illustrate a possible bracket. The official seeds and matchups will ultimately be determined through the FHSAA process using the MaxPreps rankings.

These projections will change as results replace preseason expectations. District races will tighten or separate, at-large positions will shift and the regional picture will become clearer throughout the season.

The Open Division is not included in the district tables or the Class 5A bracket projection. That statewide eight-team field draws programs from all six FHSAA classifications and will be covered separately.

Below is the complete preseason outlook for all 16 Class 5A districts, followed by an FPRI-modeled playoff bracket for each of the classification’s four regions.

District 5A-1

Pace holds a commanding position in a district that otherwise projects as a much tighter race. Its district championship probability sits more than 60 percentage points ahead of Niceville, extending the momentum of consecutive 10-2 seasons.

Pace is the clear projected favorite after reaching the 2025 regional semifinals, while Niceville leads the chase despite slipping to 6-5 last season. Tate’s 7-3 projection would represent a step back from its 10-4 finish but keeps it within the competitive middle alongside Crestview. Navarre faces the steepest climb after a 1-9 season in 2025.

Pace also owns the district’s strongest overall postseason position and its only notable statewide 5A championship probability. Niceville, Tate and Crestview each have playoff probabilities well above their district championship probabilities, leaving multiple postseason paths behind the favorite, though all three remain modest statewide title possibilities.

VOTE

District 5A-2

Nease holds the early edge, but this projects as one of the classification’s deeper district races. Mandarin sits fewer than 10 percentage points behind the favorite, while Ponte Vedra gives the district a third team with a substantial championship probability after reaching the 2025 state semifinals.

Nease’s projection continues a strong two-year run that produced records of 10-1 and 9-3, but Mandarin is a credible challenger after finishing 11-2 in 2025. Ponte Vedra remains firmly involved despite the separation from the top two, while Beachside’s projected 8-2 record gives it a stronger profile than its district championship probability suggests. Fletcher and Bartram Trail face a much steeper climb in a field with four teams projected for at least eight wins.

Nease, Mandarin and Ponte Vedra each carry a strong postseason probability, and Beachside remains a realistic part of that broader race after reaching the 2025 regional semifinals. Nease owns the district’s highest statewide 5A championship probability, but Mandarin and Ponte Vedra are close enough to give District 5A-2 three meaningful class-title possibilities rather than one isolated contender.

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District 5A-3

Buchholz is the overwhelming projected favorite after five consecutive double-digit-win seasons and a 2025 state semifinal appearance. Oakleaf is the only credible challenger, but the gap between the district’s top two is nearly 79 percentage points.

Buchholz has a clear edge in a district with little projected uncertainty at the top. Oakleaf’s 8-2 projection continues the program’s recent winning form, but Matanzas, Forest and West Port face a substantial separation from the leading pair. Forest’s projected 4-6 finish would represent a step back from its 6-4 record in 2025, while West Port’s projection remains close to its recent results.

Buchholz has the district’s strongest postseason position and statewide 5A championship probability, although the class-title figure is narrower than its broader postseason outlook. Oakleaf remains a realistic postseason candidate after reaching the 2025 regional quarterfinals, while the remaining three teams sit well outside the district’s primary playoff picture.

VOTE

District 5A-4

Evans and South Lake form a clear two-team race, with Evans holding a little more than a 2-to-1 advantage in district championship probability. Both are projected at 8-2 after posting their strongest records of the past five seasons in 2025.

Evans is the projected favorite after improving from 3-7 in 2022 to 8-3 and a regional quarterfinal appearance in 2025. South Lake is the only substantial challenger, building on an 11-2 season that ended in the regional finals. A gap of more than 40 rating points separates the leading pair from Wekiva and Lake Minneola, leaving both with a steep climb despite modest rebound projections from 1-9 finishes.

Evans owns the district’s strongest playoff probability and statewide 5A championship probability. South Lake also has a realistic postseason path, with its playoff probability standing well above its district championship probability, but the model sees little postseason traction beyond the top two.

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District 5A-5

Oviedo owns a decisive advantage in a district with a tightly grouped set of challengers. Viera, Melbourne and Lake Howell are separated by fewer than six percentage points in district championship probability, but each sits more than 60 points behind the projected favorite.

Oviedo is the clear projected favorite after three consecutive 8-3 seasons and a 2025 regional quarterfinal appearance. Viera leads the pursuit, though its 6-4 projection would represent a step back from last season’s 7-5 regional semifinal run. Melbourne and Lake Howell form the next tier, while East River and Lyman face the district’s steepest climbs.

Oviedo also has the district’s strongest playoff probability and its only notable statewide 5A championship probability. Viera, Melbourne and Lake Howell each have a broader postseason path than their district championship probabilities suggest, but none reaches a 30% playoff probability, leaving the district’s postseason outlook heavily concentrated around Oviedo.

VOTE

District 5A-6

Lakeland is the dominant projected favorite after four consecutive 12-win seasons and a 2025 state runner-up finish. Osceola leads the pursuit, but the gap between the top two exceeds 90 percentage points in district championship probability.

Lakeland holds a clear edge over a competitive second tier. Osceola’s 8-2 projection represents a rebound from its 7-5 regional semifinal season, while Auburndale and Sebring remain closely grouped after both reached the 2025 postseason. Lake Gibson and Bartow face the steepest climb, though each is projected to improve from a losing record.

Lakeland owns the district’s strongest postseason position and statewide 5A championship probability, although its class-title figure reflects only the traditional classification path. Osceola has a realistic postseason route despite its limited district championship probability, while Auburndale and Sebring remain near the broader playoff conversation. The district’s statewide title outlook is otherwise concentrated almost entirely around Lakeland.

VOTE

District 5A-7

Wiregrass Ranch holds a commanding advantage over a district otherwise defined by a compressed middle tier. Wesley Chapel and Land O Lakes are separated by fewer than two percentage points in district championship probability, but both sit more than 70 points behind the projected favorite.

Wiregrass Ranch is the clear projected favorite, with its 8-2 projection representing a rebound from a 5-6 season that still produced a 2025 regional quarterfinal appearance. Wesley Chapel also reached the regional quarterfinals last season and narrowly leads Land O Lakes in championship probability, although Land O Lakes owns the stronger projected record. Wharton, Sunlake and Cypress Creek face progressively steeper climbs.

Wiregrass Ranch carries the district’s strongest playoff probability and its only notable statewide 5A championship probability. Wesley Chapel and Land O Lakes have postseason probabilities well above their district championship chances, leaving both within the broader playoff conversation, while the remaining three teams sit below 13%.

VOTE

District 5A-8

Mitchell holds the projected edge, but Gaither keeps this from becoming a one-team race. Fewer than 15 percentage points separate the leading pair in district championship probability, while East Lake and Largo form a distinct second tier.

Mitchell is the projected favorite after consecutive double-digit-win seasons, including a 10-3 regional final run in 2025. Gaither is a credible challenger following a 10-2 regional semifinal season, while East Lake’s 7-3 projection largely maintains the progress behind last year’s 8-3 finish. Largo remains within the competitive middle, but Sickles faces a steep climb after three consecutive two-win-or-fewer seasons.

Mitchell and Gaither carry the district’s strongest postseason positions and are its two meaningful statewide 5A championship possibilities. East Lake’s playoff probability remains substantially stronger than its district championship probability after reaching the 2025 regional semifinals, while Largo retains a smaller postseason path following a regional quarterfinal appearance. Sickles sits well outside the primary playoff picture.

VOTE

District 5A-9

Armwood is the clear projected favorite, but Tampa Bay Tech gives the district a second nine-win projection and a credible challenger. The championship gap remains substantial, with Armwood holding more than four times Tampa Bay Tech’s probability.

Armwood’s projection extends a three-year run of double-digit-win seasons, including a 13-1 state semifinal finish in 2025. Tampa Bay Tech remains the primary challenger after four consecutive seasons with at least nine wins, while Plant’s 7-3 projection represents a rebound from last year’s 5-6 regional quarterfinal season. Spoto occupies the middle, with Bloomingdale and Leto facing the steepest climbs.

Armwood carries the district’s strongest overall postseason position and statewide 5A championship probability, although its class-title figure is narrower than its broader postseason outlook. Tampa Bay Tech also has a strong playoff probability after reaching the 2025 regional semifinals, while Plant retains a smaller postseason path despite its limited district championship probability. The remaining three teams sit outside the district’s primary playoff picture.

VOTE

District 5A-10

District 5A-10 projects as a four-team race without a dominant favorite. Manatee and Palmetto are separated by fewer than six percentage points in district championship probability, while Sumner and Parrish Community remain close enough to keep the field unsettled.

Manatee holds a narrow projected edge despite a 6-7 season that ended in the 2025 regional finals. Palmetto is the closest challenger after finishing 10-2 and reaching the regional semifinals, while Sumner’s recent 10-3 regional final run supports its place within the district’s leading group. Parrish Community has the smallest championship probability, but its 8-2 projection continues a two-year stretch that produced records of 9-2.

All four teams carry realistic postseason probabilities, with Manatee and Palmetto holding the strongest positions. Sumner and Parrish Community also have playoff probabilities considerably higher than their district championship figures, underscoring the depth of the field. Manatee owns the district’s highest statewide 5A championship probability, but the narrow separation leaves several smaller class-title possibilities rather than one clear statewide contender.

VOTE

District 5A-11

Riverdale holds a clear projected edge, but Cape Coral and Immokalee give the district two credible challengers. The leading three programs all reached at least the regional semifinals in 2025, adding recent postseason weight to the race.

Riverdale is the projected favorite after improving from 2-8 in 2023 to 10-3 and 12-2 over the past two seasons, with last year’s run ending in the state semifinals. Cape Coral and Immokalee are closely matched behind it after both reached the 2025 regional semifinals. Charlotte and North Fort Myers face a sizable gap from the leading group, while East Lee County has the steepest climb after an 0-10 season.

Riverdale owns the district’s strongest playoff probability and statewide 5A championship probability. Cape Coral and Immokalee remain realistic postseason possibilities despite considerably smaller district championship probabilities, while Charlotte and North Fort Myers hold more limited paths after regional quarterfinal appearances last season. East Lee County sits outside the district’s primary playoff picture.

VOTE

District 5A-12

Martin County holds a clear advantage in a district with a compressed group of challengers. Royal Palm Beach and Palm Beach Gardens are separated by fewer than seven percentage points in district championship probability, but both sit more than 50 points behind the projected favorite.

Martin County is the projected favorite after improving from 5-4 in 2023 to 6-4 and 8-3 over the past two seasons, with its 2025 run ending in the regional quarterfinals. Royal Palm Beach is the primary challenger following consecutive winning seasons, while Palm Beach Gardens’ 5-5 projection would improve on last year’s 5-7 finish. Seminole Ridge, South Fork and Dwyer face steeper climbs, though Dwyer’s projection represents a rebound from an 0-10 season.

Martin County carries the district’s strongest playoff probability and its only notable statewide 5A championship probability. Royal Palm Beach and Palm Beach Gardens have postseason probabilities meaningfully higher than their district championship figures after both finished as regional finalists in the 2025 consolation bracket. The remaining three teams sit below a 10% playoff probability.

VOTE

District 5A-13

West Boca Raton is the overwhelming projected favorite after winning 28 games and a state championship across the past two seasons. Monarch is the clear second choice, but the district championship gap approaches 98 percentage points.

West Boca Raton holds a decisive edge after following a 15-0 season in 2024 with a 13-2 state championship run in 2025. Monarch remains the primary challenger after reaching last year’s regional semifinals, but its 7-3 projection leaves substantial separation from the favorite. Deerfield Beach faces another difficult outlook after four consecutive losing seasons, while Olympic Heights’ projection represents a step back from its 5-4 finish in 2025.

West Boca Raton carries a near-certain postseason probability and the district’s strongest statewide 5A championship probability, though the class-title figure is narrower than its broader postseason position. Monarch also has a realistic postseason path despite its limited district championship probability. Deerfield Beach and Olympic Heights remain outside the district’s primary playoff picture.

VOTE

District 5A-14

Coconut Creek and Piper project as an almost even two-team race. Fewer than six percentage points separate them in district championship probability, while Boyd Anderson sits far behind the leading pair.

Coconut Creek holds the narrow projected edge after rebounding from 4-6 in 2024 to 9-3 and a regional semifinal appearance last season. Piper reached the same postseason round during a 7-5 season and remains nearly level with the favorite across the projection. Boyd Anderson faces a steep climb, though its 2-8 projection would represent modest improvement from an 0-9 finish.

Coconut Creek and Piper carry nearly identical postseason profiles, with both holding playoff probabilities above 75%. Coconut Creek has the district’s highest statewide 5A championship probability by only one-tenth of a percentage point, leaving the district with two modest class-title possibilities rather than a clear statewide contender.

VOTE

District 5A-15

St. Thomas Aquinas is the overwhelming projected favorite after five consecutive seasons with at least 12 wins. Archbishop McCarthy and Flanagan both carry strong postseason profiles, but the district championship race is heavily tilted toward the defending state champion.

St. Thomas Aquinas holds a decisive edge after finishing 14-1 and winning the 2025 state championship. Archbishop McCarthy is the primary challenger following a 10-3 regional final run, continuing a sharp rise from one- and two-win seasons in 2021 and 2022. Flanagan’s 7-3 projection extends its recent improvement after records of 7-4 and 8-3 over the past two seasons.

St. Thomas Aquinas and Archbishop McCarthy both carry 99% playoff probabilities despite the wide separation in their district championship chances, while Flanagan remains a meaningful postseason possibility after reaching the 2025 regional quarterfinals. St. Thomas Aquinas owns the district’s highest statewide 5A championship probability, narrowly ahead of Archbishop McCarthy. Those class-title figures reflect only the traditional 5A championship path and are narrower than the teams’ broader postseason positions.

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District 5A-16

Miami Southridge is the overwhelming projected favorite after consecutive double-digit-win seasons. Mater Academy is the only credible challenger, but the district championship gap exceeds 93 percentage points.

Miami Southridge holds a decisive edge after following a 12-3 season in 2024 with an 11-2 regional final run in 2025. Mater Academy’s 6-4 projection represents a step back from last year’s 8-3 finish but leaves it clearly second in the district. Everglades faces the steepest climb after dropping from 6-4 in 2023 to 4-6 and 2-8 over the past two seasons.

Miami Southridge carries the district’s strongest playoff probability and statewide 5A championship probability. Mater Academy’s 50% playoff probability is substantially stronger than its district championship figure, preserving a realistic postseason path beyond the title race. Everglades remains a more limited postseason possibility.

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Projected Playoff Field

Winning the district secures an automatic place in the FHSAA playoffs. The remaining positions in each eight-team regional field are filled through the at-large process, creating two connected races inside every district: the fight for the championship and the broader pursuit of a postseason berth.

The Florida Power Rankings Index provides an independent preseason model of how those races could develop. Each district section includes a standardized 10-game record projection, district championship probability, overall playoff probability and Class 4A state championship probability.

The projected records are not game-by-game schedule predictions. They represent the level at which each program is expected to perform across a standard 10-game regular season based on its preseason FPRI rating and recent results.

District championship probability measures each team’s chance of securing its district’s automatic playoff berth. Playoff probability includes both the district-title route and the possibility of qualifying as an at-large team. Class 4A state championship probability measures each team’s chance of winning the classification title.

The numbers show separation rather than certainty. Miami Northwestern, St. Augustine, Choctawhatchee, Jesuit, American Heritage, Vanguard and Naples begin with commanding advantages in their districts. Races such as District 4A-2 between Mosley and Lincoln, District 4A-3 between Columbia and Ed White, and District 4A-13 involving Jensen Beach, Heritage and Fort Pierce Westwood present considerably more competition. A probability above 50% establishes a projected favorite, but it does not settle the race before a game is played.

MaxPreps is the FHSAA’s official rankings source for playoff qualification, seeding and regional placement. The projected bracket included here is not an official FHSAA bracket or a prediction of the final MaxPreps rankings. It is an educated preseason estimate of what the Class 4A field and first-round matchups could look like if teams perform near their current FPRI projections.

That distinction also applies to seeding and hosting. The model identifies projected district champions and at-large qualifiers, then orders each regional field by FPRI rating to illustrate one possible bracket. The official qualifiers, seeds, regional placement and matchups will ultimately be determined through the FHSAA process using the MaxPreps rankings.

These projections will change as results replace preseason expectations. District races will tighten or separate, at-large positions will shift and the regional picture will become clearer throughout the season.

The Open Division is not included in the district tables or the Class 4A bracket projection. That statewide eight-team field draws programs from all six FHSAA classifications and will be covered separately.

Below is the complete preseason outlook for all 16 Class 4A districts, followed by an FPRI-modeled playoff bracket for each of the classification’s four regions.

District 4A-1

Choctawhatchee holds the clearest advantage in the district, with a 95% championship probability separating it sharply from the rest of the field. The projection follows three consecutive double-digit-win seasons and a 2025 state semifinal appearance.

The real competition sits behind the projected favorite. Escambia and Milton are nearly even for second, although their recent paths differ: Escambia’s projection represents a rebound from a 3-7 finish, while Milton’s 5-5 mark would be a step back from its 7-4 season and 2025 regional quarterfinal appearance. Booker T. Washington remains within reach of that middle tier, while Fort Walton Beach and Gulf Breeze face steeper climbs based on both the model and recent results.

Choctawhatchee is the district’s only strong postseason favorite and its most meaningful statewide 4A championship contender. Escambia and Milton retain modest playoff paths despite limited district-title probabilities, while Booker T. Washington sits further toward the bubble after reaching the regional quarterfinals in 2025. The remaining teams carry single-digit playoff probabilities and no significant statewide championship position.

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District 4A-2

Mosley and Lincoln form the district’s clear top tier, with Mosley holding a 20-point advantage in championship probability. Mosley’s position follows a 10-2 season and regional semifinal appearance, while Lincoln remains a credible challenger despite slipping to 6-5 in 2025.

The district race is concentrated around Mosley and Lincoln rather than spread across the full field. Chiles projects as the strongest team outside that pairing, though its championship probability remains well behind the leaders after an 8-5 season and FIT semifinal appearance. Rickards and Arnold carry identical district probabilities despite different projected records, while Leon faces the steepest climb.

Mosley and Lincoln both have strong postseason positions and account for nearly all of the district’s meaningful statewide 4A championship probability. Chiles has a more plausible playoff path than its district-title probability suggests, while Rickards and Arnold sit closer to the postseason bubble despite both reaching regional quarterfinals in 2025. Leon’s single-digit playoff probability leaves little margin for outperforming the projection.

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District 4A-3

Columbia and Ed White sit at the center of a competitive two-team race, with only 12.5 percentage points separating their district championship probabilities. Both reached the regional semifinals in 2025, giving the projected matchup a strong recent postseason foundation.

Columbia owns the narrow edge, but Ed White’s consecutive seasons of eight or more wins support its position as a credible challenger. Yulee sits alone in the next tier after rebounding from 2-8 in 2024 to 8-3 and a regional quarterfinal appearance in 2025. Riverside’s projection represents improvement from a 2-8 finish, while Ribault faces the widest separation from the district leaders.

The model gives Columbia and Ed White clear postseason paths and the district’s only notable statewide 4A championship possibilities. Yulee’s playoff probability is considerably stronger than its district-title probability, leaving a realistic route beyond winning the district. Riverside remains on the edge of the postseason picture, while Ribault carries little projected margin.

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District 4A-4

St. Augustine is the overwhelming projected favorite, carrying a 96.9% district championship probability while no other team reaches 2%. That separation follows three consecutive seasons with at least 11 victories and a 2025 regional final appearance.

The model leaves little uncertainty at the top, but Fleming Island and Middleburg are closely matched in the next tier. Middleburg’s projection continues a recent rise from 7-4 in 2024 to 8-3 and a regional quarterfinal appearance in 2025, while Fleming Island is projected to improve from 6-4. Orange Park, Clay and Ridgeview face steep climbs, with each separated significantly from the district’s top three.

St. Augustine is the district’s only near-certain postseason team and its strongest statewide 4A championship contender. Its overall postseason position is stronger than its classification championship probability alone suggests. Fleming Island and Middleburg have credible playoff paths despite minimal district-title probabilities, while Orange Park, Clay and Ridgeview remain on the outer edge of the postseason picture.

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District 4A-5

Vanguard stands well apart from the field, with a 93.8% district championship probability and no challenger above 3%. The projection extends a run of five consecutive winning seasons that included a 10-3 finish and regional semifinal appearance in 2025.

The more competitive portion of the district sits behind Vanguard. Lecanto has a narrow edge over Mount Dora and Leesburg, with its 6-4 projection representing modest improvement after consecutive 6-5 seasons. Mount Dora receives a rebound projection after falling from three consecutive winning seasons to 2-8 in 2025, while Leesburg remains close to its recent 5-5 finish. Lake Weir and Gainesville face the steepest climb.

Vanguard is the district’s only strong postseason favorite and its lone meaningful statewide 4A championship possibility. Lecanto, Mount Dora and Leesburg have playoff probabilities that substantially exceed their district-title chances, but each remains below 25%. Lake Weir and Gainesville sit near the outer edge of the postseason picture, leaving the district’s broader outlook heavily dependent on Vanguard.

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District 4A-6

Bishop Moore holds a commanding position at the top, with an 89.7% district championship probability and a wide gap over New Smyrna Beach. The projection extends a four-year run of winning seasons that culminated in a 12-2 record and state semifinal appearance in 2025.

Bishop Moore is the clear projected favorite, while New Smyrna Beach occupies a distinct second tier after consecutive 8-3 seasons and a 2025 regional quarterfinal appearance. Winter Springs, Deltona and Seabreeze are tightly grouped in the lower half of the district, with identical projected records and only three-tenths of a percentage point separating their championship probabilities. Deltona’s projection continues its gradual recovery from a 1-9 finish in 2023, while Seabreeze’s 4-6 mark would be a slight step back from 5-5.

Bishop Moore is the district’s only strong postseason favorite and its leading statewide 4A championship contender. New Smyrna Beach has a credible playoff path despite its limited district-title probability, while Winter Springs and Deltona remain closer to the postseason bubble after both reached regional quarterfinals in 2025. Seabreeze carries a similar playoff probability but little projected statewide championship position.

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District 4A-7

Jones and Lake Wales give the district two projected nine-win teams, but Jones holds a commanding 84.1% district championship probability. The favorite has recorded at least 10 wins in five consecutive seasons and finished as the Class 4A state runner-up in 2025.

Jones owns the clear edge, but Lake Wales remains a credible challenger after a 10-3 season and regional final appearance in 2025. The separation becomes severe beyond the top two: Lake Region is projected to fall from 5-5 to 3-7, while Kathleen and Brandon remain aligned with their recent losing records.

Jones and Lake Wales are both strong postseason favorites and account for all of the district’s meaningful statewide 4A championship probability. Their overall postseason positions are stronger than their classification championship probabilities alone suggest. Lake Region, Kathleen and Brandon carry single-digit playoff probabilities, leaving the district’s postseason outlook concentrated almost entirely around its two leaders.

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District 4A-8

Zephyrhills holds a decisive advantage, with an 85.6% district championship probability and no challenger above 7%. The projection follows an 11-1 season and regional semifinalist finish in 2025.

Zephyrhills is the clear projected favorite after five consecutive winning seasons. River Ridge and Springstead form a closely matched second tier, although Springstead’s 7-3 projection represents a rebound from 4-5 in 2025. Gulf sits between that pairing and a lower group led by Fivay and Hudson, while Pasco faces the steepest climb after three losing seasons in the past four years.

Zephyrhills is the district’s only strong postseason favorite and its leading statewide 4A championship contender. River Ridge and Springstead have playoff probabilities that are substantially stronger than their district-title chances, giving both credible postseason paths. Gulf and Fivay sit closer to the bubble, while Hudson’s outlook is more limited despite finishing as an FIT regional finalist in 2025. Pasco carries little projected postseason margin.

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District 4A-9

Jesuit is the overwhelming projected favorite, carrying a 94.4% district championship probability while no challenger reaches 4%. The projection follows an 11-2 season and regional final appearance in 2025.

The competition behind Jesuit is centered on East Bay and Blake, which share 6-4 projections and are separated by less than one percentage point in district championship probability. Blake’s projection matches its seven-win 2025 season and regional quarterfinal appearance, while East Bay is projected to improve from 5-5. Hillsborough receives a modest rebound projection after consecutive losing seasons, while Freedom and Middleton remain aligned with their 2-8 finishes from 2025.

Jesuit is the district’s only strong postseason favorite and its leading statewide 4A championship contender. East Bay and Blake have playoff probabilities that are considerably stronger than their district-title chances, giving both plausible postseason paths. Hillsborough sits near the outer edge of the playoff picture, while Freedom and Middleton carry limited projected postseason margin.

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District 4A-10

Clearwater holds a commanding advantage, with an 82.4% district championship probability and no challenger reaching 10%. The projection builds on an 8-4 season and regional semifinal appearance in 2025.

Clearwater is the clear projected favorite, while Pinellas Park, Osceola and St. Petersburg form the more competitive second tier. Pinellas Park receives a rebound projection after finishing 5-6 in 2025, while Osceola’s 6-4 mark remains close to its recent form following a 7-4 season and regional quarterfinal appearance. St. Petersburg’s projected return to .500 would represent a sharp response to its 2-7 finish, while Northeast and Hollins face steeper climbs.

Clearwater is the district’s only strong postseason favorite and its leading statewide 4A championship contender. Pinellas Park, Osceola and St. Petersburg each have playoff probabilities considerably stronger than their district-title chances, although none reaches 40%. Northeast remains near the outer edge of the postseason picture, while Hollins carries little projected margin.

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District 4A-11

Port Charlotte is the overwhelming projected favorite, carrying a 90.6% district championship probability while no challenger reaches 5%. The projection extends a steady rise from 5-4 in 2021 to an 11-3 season and state semifinal appearance in 2025.

The more competitive race is for second, where Dunbar and South Fort Myers share 7-3 projections and are separated by less than one percentage point in district championship probability. Both reached the regional quarterfinals in 2025, while Dunbar’s projection would continue a five-year run of winning seasons. Fort Myers receives a rebound projection after falling to 3-7, while Mariner remains well behind the district’s top three.

Port Charlotte is the district’s only strong postseason favorite and its leading statewide 4A championship contender. Dunbar and South Fort Myers have playoff probabilities far stronger than their district-title chances, leaving both with credible postseason paths. Fort Myers sits closer to the playoff bubble, while Mariner carries a single-digit probability and little projected statewide championship position.

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District 4A-12

Naples is the overwhelming projected favorite, carrying a 92.8% district championship probability while no challenger reaches 4%. The model’s 8-2 projection continues a five-year run of winning seasons after Naples finished 7-4-1 and reached the regional semifinals in 2025.

The race behind Naples is more compressed. Estero holds a narrow edge over Gulf Coast after both reached the regional quarterfinals in 2025, while Barron Collier remains within the next tier despite a second consecutive losing season. Golden Gate’s projection represents a modest improvement from consecutive 4-6 finishes, while Aubrey Rogers remains aligned with its 2-8 record from 2025.

Naples is the district’s only strong postseason favorite and its leading statewide 4A championship contender. Estero and Gulf Coast have playoff probabilities significantly stronger than their district-title chances, but both remain below 30%. Barron Collier sits near the outer edge of the postseason picture, while Golden Gate and Aubrey Rogers carry single-digit playoff probabilities.

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District 4A-13

Jensen Beach is the projected favorite, but Heritage and Fort Pierce Westwood keep the district from becoming a one-team race. Jensen Beach holds a 64.3% district championship probability, with the two leading challengers combining for another 33.3%.

Jensen Beach’s projection continues a run of four consecutive winning seasons and follows an 8-3 finish with a regional quarterfinal appearance in 2025. Heritage receives a rebound projection after finishing 4-7 despite also reaching the regional quarterfinals, while Fort Pierce Westwood remains a credible challenger after going 7-6 and advancing to an FIT semifinal. Sebastian River, Legacy and Port St. Lucie face a sizable gap from the top three.

Jensen Beach owns the district’s strongest postseason position and its best statewide 4A championship probability. Heritage and Fort Pierce Westwood both have playoff probabilities notably higher than their district-title chances, giving the district multiple realistic postseason paths. Sebastian River and Legacy sit closer to the outer edge of contention, while Port St. Lucie carries a limited outlook after a winless 2025 season.

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District 4A-14

Atlantic is the projected favorite, but Plantation gives the district a credible second contender. Atlantic holds an 84% district championship probability after consecutive double-digit-win seasons, while Plantation follows a 7-5 finish and regional semifinal appearance in 2025.

Atlantic owns the clear edge after going 10-2 and reaching the regional semifinals in 2025, but Plantation remains a meaningful challenger with a projected 8-2 record. Blanche Ely receives a rebound projection after falling from three consecutive winning seasons to 2-7, while Northeast faces a steep climb following four straight losing records.

Atlantic has the district’s strongest postseason position and its leading statewide 4A championship probability. Its overall postseason outlook is stronger than its classification championship probability alone suggests. Plantation also carries a realistic playoff path despite the gap in the district race, while Blanche Ely sits closer to the postseason bubble and Northeast has little projected margin.

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District 4A-15

American Heritage is the clear projected favorite, carrying a 93.6% district championship probability after winning the Class 4A state title in 2025. Miami Norland stands as the primary challenger, but the gap between the top two remains substantial.

American Heritage’s position reflects sustained success, including double-digit wins in three consecutive seasons before its 9-4 championship run in 2025. Miami Norland receives a strong rebound projection after falling to 6-6 and exiting in the regional semifinals. McArthur’s 7-3 projection follows a sharp rise from 2-8 to 10-3, while Miramar is projected to recover from a 4-7 season.

All four teams retain meaningful postseason paths, although American Heritage and Miami Norland are the only strong playoff favorites. McArthur and Miramar have playoff probabilities far exceeding their district-title chances, placing both in the broader postseason conversation. American Heritage owns the district’s strongest statewide 4A championship probability, though its classification-title figure reflects only the traditional class-title path.

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District 4A-16

Miami Northwestern is the most decisive district favorite in Class 4A, carrying a 99.6% championship probability. The projection follows consecutive seasons with at least 12 victories and a 2025 state runner-up finish.

The model leaves virtually no separation to debate at the top. Hialeah and North Miami form the second tier after both finished 7-4 and reached regional quarterfinals in 2025, although neither carries a meaningful district-title probability. American’s 3-7 projection represents a slight step back from its 4-6 finish.

Miami Northwestern is the district’s only strong postseason favorite and owns its leading statewide 4A championship probability. Its overall postseason position is stronger than its traditional classification-title probability alone suggests. Hialeah and North Miami retain modest playoff paths despite the district gap, while American sits near the outer edge of the postseason picture.

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The complete projected seeds and regional brackets are available below for Season Ticket members.

Projected Playoff Field

Winning the district secures an automatic place in the FHSAA playoffs. The remaining positions in each eight-team regional field are filled through the at-large process, creating two connected races inside every district: the pursuit of the championship and the broader fight to reach the postseason.

The Florida Power Rankings Index provides an independent preseason model of how those races could develop. Each district section includes a standardized 10-game record projection, district championship probability, overall playoff probability and Class 3A state championship probability.

The projected records are not game-by-game schedule predictions. They represent the level at which each program is expected to perform across a standard 10-game regular season based on its preseason FPRI rating and recent results.

District championship probability measures each team’s chance of securing its district’s automatic playoff berth. Playoff probability includes both the district-title route and the possibility of qualifying as an at-large team. Class 3A state championship probability measures each team’s chance of winning the classification title.

The numbers show separation rather than certainty. Raines, Cardinal Mooney, Glades Central, Miami Central and Jefferson begin with commanding district advantages, while District 3A-15 presents an almost even race between Dillard and Cardinal Gibbons. Districts 3A-5, 3A-6 and 3A-13 also feature credible challengers capable of keeping those races unsettled.

MaxPreps is the FHSAA’s official rankings source for playoff qualification, seeding and regional placement. The projected bracket included here is not an official FHSAA bracket or a prediction of the final MaxPreps rankings. It is an educated preseason estimate of what the Class 3A field and first-round matchups could look like if teams perform near their current FPRI projections.

That distinction also applies to seeding and hosting. The model identifies projected district champions and at-large qualifiers, then seeds each regional field by FPRI rating to illustrate one possible bracket. The official playoff field, seeds and matchups will ultimately be determined through the FHSAA process using the MaxPreps rankings.

These projections will change as results replace preseason expectations. District races will tighten or separate, at-large positions will shift and the regional picture will become clearer throughout the season.

The Open Division is not included in the district tables or the Class 3A bracket projection. That statewide eight-team field draws programs from all six FHSAA classifications and will be covered separately.

Below is the complete preseason outlook for all 16 Class 3A districts, followed by an FPRI-modeled playoff bracket for each of the classification’s four regions.

District 3A-1

Bay holds a clear edge in a district where the next three teams are much more tightly grouped. The projection builds on Bay’s 9-2 finish in 2025, while West Florida and South Walton lead the pursuit behind the favorite.

Bay is the projected favorite by a wide margin, with its 68.4% district championship probability exceeding the combined figure of its three closest challengers. West Florida and South Walton form the most credible second tier after both reached regional semifinals in 2025. Pine Forest’s 5-5 projection would represent a rebound from 3-7, while Pensacola faces the steepest climb after a 1-9 season.

Bay’s 89.3% playoff probability gives it the district’s strongest overall postseason position and follows a 2025 regional quarterfinal appearance. West Florida and South Walton remain viable postseason candidates even without winning the district, while Pine Forest sits farther toward the bubble. Bay also owns the district’s highest statewide 3A championship probability at 2.6%, leaving the district with one modest state-title possibility rather than a group of prominent contenders.

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District 3A-2

Godby carries a meaningful but not overwhelming advantage over a closely matched pair of challengers. Wakulla and Baker County are separated by fewer than 2 percentage points in the district race, giving the favorite little room for a significant stumble.

Godby is the projected favorite, with a 56.3% district championship probability and a rebound to 6-4 after finishing 5-7 in 2025. Wakulla and Baker County form an almost even second tier, and both are projected at 6-4 after reaching the 2025 regional quarterfinals. Suwannee faces a steep climb, although its 3-7 projection would improve upon last season’s 1-9 finish.

Godby owns the district’s strongest postseason position at 81.6% after advancing to a regional semifinal in 2025. Wakulla and Baker County also have realistic playoff paths beyond the district-title race, with both probabilities sitting above 50%. Godby’s 2.1% statewide 3A championship probability leads the group, but the district projects as having one modest title possibility rather than a major state favorite.

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District 3A-3

Raines is the overwhelming projected favorite after five consecutive winning seasons capped by a 14-0 state championship run in 2025. Bishop Kenny remains a strong overall team, but the district-title probability gap leaves little ambiguity at the top.

Raines holds a commanding edge in the district race, with Bishop Kenny positioned as the only credible challenger despite the wide separation between them. The projection continues Raines’ rise from 10 wins in 2023 to 13 in 2024 and 14 in 2025. Bishop Kenny’s 8-2 projection also fits a program that has posted consecutive nine-win seasons, while Terry Parker faces a steep climb after finishing 2-7 last year.

Raines and Bishop Kenny each carry a 99.0% playoff probability, giving the district two exceptionally strong postseason positions despite the one-sided district race. Raines owns the highest statewide 3A championship probability at 6.2%, narrowly ahead of Bishop Kenny at 4.7%, after the teams finished as the 2025 state champion and regional finalist, respectively. Their classification-title figures reflect only the traditional 3A championship path and are narrower than their broader postseason outlooks.

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District 3A-4

Palatka owns a decisive advantage in a district with clear separation between each tier. Menendez is the primary challenger, but the championship probabilities position Palatka well ahead of the rest of the field.

Palatka is the clear projected favorite and has posted at least six victories in four consecutive seasons despite finishing 6-7 in 2025. Menendez’s 4-6 projection would represent a modest improvement from last season’s 3-7 record, but it remains well behind Palatka in the district race. Wolfson faces a steeper climb, while Westside’s projected victory would end a winless 2025 season.

Palatka’s 88.3% playoff probability gives the district one strong postseason position after the program reached the 2025 FIT semifinals. Menendez remains within range of the broader playoff race, while Wolfson and Westside carry substantially smaller paths. Palatka also leads the district with a 1.4% statewide 3A championship probability, leaving the group without a prominent state-title favorite.

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District 3A-5

Eastside and Dunnellon form the district’s clear top tier, with both projected at 7-3. Eastside holds the advantage, but Dunnellon’s 38.6% district championship probability keeps this among Class 3A’s more competitive races.

Eastside is the projected favorite after four consecutive winning seasons, including a 9-3 finish and regional semifinal appearance in 2025. Dunnellon remains a credible challenger after finishing 8-6 and winning the 2025 FIT 1A-3A championship. The separation becomes substantial after the top two, with Santa Fe and North Marion projected at 4-6 and Belleview facing the steepest climb.

Eastside carries the district’s strongest playoff probability at 81.0%, while Dunnellon’s 69.5% figure gives the district two realistic postseason paths. Santa Fe is farther toward the bubble despite improving from four consecutive one-win-or-fewer seasons to 7-4 and a regional quarterfinal appearance in 2025. Eastside also leads the statewide 3A championship outlook at 2.8%, narrowly ahead of Dunnellon’s 2.1%, giving the district two smaller title possibilities rather than one dominant contender.nt statewide contender.

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District 3A-6

The Villages holds the early advantage, but South Sumter and Tavares give the district three credible contenders. The projected favorite leads South Sumter by 31 percentage points, creating separation without turning the race into a runaway.

The Villages is the projected favorite after improving from 5-5 in 2024 to 9-2 and a regional quarterfinal appearance in 2025. South Sumter and Tavares also reached regional quarterfinals last season, and their projections keep both within the district race. Eustis faces substantial separation from the top three, although a 2-8 projection would represent a small step forward after consecutive 1-9 finishes.

The Villages owns the district’s strongest postseason position at 82.4%, while South Sumter also has a realistic path beyond the district championship race. Tavares sits closer to the playoff bubble at 45.0%, and Eustis has little margin for error. The Villages leads the district with a 2.8% statewide 3A championship probability, followed by smaller possibilities for South Sumter and Tavares.

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District 3A-7

Mulberry is the clear projected favorite despite a modest 5-5 record projection. Tenoroc is the only meaningful challenger, while Discovery and Liberty sit well outside the primary district race.

Mulberry’s district advantage is substantial, with its championship probability nearly four times Tenoroc’s. The 5-5 projection represents a rebound from a 4-7 finish in 2025, when Mulberry reached the regional quarterfinals. Tenoroc also finished 4-7 and advanced to the FIT regional semifinals, but its projected decline to 3-7 creates further separation. Discovery and Liberty are each projected to improve from winless seasons, though both face a steep climb.

Mulberry’s 82.6% playoff probability gives the district one strong postseason position even though its statewide 3A championship probability is only 0.6%. Tenoroc remains a secondary postseason possibility, while Discovery and Liberty carry limited paths. The district projects as more consequential in the regional qualification race than in the statewide championship picture.

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District 3A-8

Eau Gallie is the clear projected favorite in a district with several credible teams behind it. Merritt Island and Titusville lead a crowded second tier, but both face substantial separation from the top.

Eau Gallie’s 9-1 projection continues a run that includes 10, 12 and nine victories over the past three seasons, along with a regional final appearance in 2025. Merritt Island and Titusville are both projected at 7-3, though Merritt Island holds the stronger district position. Astronaut and Rockledge remain secondary possibilities, while Palm Bay faces the district’s steepest climb.

Eau Gallie carries a 99.0% playoff probability and the district’s highest statewide 3A championship probability at 6.3%. Merritt Island also owns a strong postseason path after reaching a regional semifinal in 2025, while Titusville sits near an even chance after a regional quarterfinal appearance. Astronaut and Rockledge remain within the broader playoff conversation, but the district’s championship outlook is concentrated primarily around Eau Gallie.

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District 3A-9

Nature Coast is the clear projected favorite after reaching the regional final and winning 10 games in 2025. Hernando and Weeki Wachee form a tightly grouped second tier, but both face a sizable gap in the district championship race.

Nature Coast owns substantial separation at the top, and its 7-3 projection would extend a five-year run without a losing season. Hernando and Weeki Wachee are the closest challengers after each posted seven victories in 2025, although neither reaches a 10% district championship probability. Crystal River sits just behind that pair, while Central and Citrus face the steepest climbs.

Nature Coast’s 90.3% playoff probability gives the district one strong postseason position following its 2025 regional final appearance. Hernando, Weeki Wachee and Crystal River remain in the broader playoff conversation, but all three sit closer to the bubble than the favorite; Hernando reached a regional quarterfinal and Weeki Wachee advanced to a FIT regional semifinal last season. Nature Coast also leads the district with a 2.7% statewide 3A championship probability, leaving the remaining teams with only limited title paths.

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District 3A-10

Jefferson is the overwhelming projected favorite after consecutive double-digit-win seasons. Chamberlain is the only credible challenger, but the 83.2-point gap between their district championship probabilities makes this one of Class 3A’s clearest preseason races.

Jefferson holds commanding separation at the top after going 11-1 in 2024 and 10-2 in 2025. Chamberlain has posted consecutive 7-4 finishes, but its 5-5 projection places it well behind the favorite. Morgan and Robinson are projected at 2-8, while King faces the steepest climb at 1-9.

Jefferson’s 96.1% playoff probability gives the district one strong postseason position after its 2025 regional semifinal appearance. Chamberlain remains a secondary possibility after reaching a regional quarterfinal last season, but the remaining teams carry limited paths. Jefferson also owns the district’s highest statewide 3A championship probability at 2.9%, leaving the group with one modest class-title contender.

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District 3A-11

Tarpon Springs holds a commanding advantage in a district without another team projected above three victories. Gibbs and Dunedin form the closest second tier, but both remain far behind the favorite in the district championship race.

Tarpon Springs is the clear projected favorite, and a 5-5 finish would represent a rebound from 3-7 in 2025. Gibbs and Dunedin are separated by only 1.7 percentage points in the race for the strongest challenge, with both projected at 3-7. Countryside, Seminole and Anclote remain farther back, although Countryside’s projection would continue its improvement from a winless 2024 season.

Tarpon Springs’ 79.8% playoff probability gives the district its only strong postseason position. Gibbs reached a regional quarterfinal in 2025 but carries a 22.3% probability this season, with Dunedin close behind at 20.3%. Tarpon Springs also owns the district’s only nonzero statewide 3A championship probability, though its 0.7% figure leaves the district without a prominent state-title contender.

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District 3A-12

Cardinal Mooney and Booker share 9-1 projections, but the district championship race is far less balanced than those records suggest. Cardinal Mooney holds an overwhelming probability advantage over a Booker program that has increased its win total in four consecutive seasons.

Cardinal Mooney is the clear projected favorite after three consecutive 12-win seasons and a 14-1 state championship finish in 2025. Booker remains the district’s strongest challenger after progressing from 1-8 in 2021 to 12-2 and a state semifinal appearance last season, but the model creates substantial separation between the top two. Southeast’s 5-5 projection represents a step back from 8-2, while Bayshore, Braden River and Wellen Park face steeper climbs.

Cardinal Mooney and Booker each carry a 99.0% playoff probability, giving the district two of Class 3A’s strongest overall postseason positions. Southeast sits closer to the playoff bubble, while the remaining three teams have narrower paths. Cardinal Mooney leads the statewide 3A championship outlook at 8.8%, followed by Booker at 6.8%; those classification-title figures reflect only the traditional 3A championship path and are narrower than the teams’ broader postseason outlooks.

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District 3A-13

Bishop Verot is the projected favorite, but Lely gives the district a credible second contender. Cypress Lake remains within striking distance of the postseason race, while Island Coast sits well behind the top three.

Bishop Verot owns the clearest path to the district championship, though its 8-2 projection would represent a sharp rebound from a 5-7 finish in 2025. Lely has increased its win total in each of the past two seasons and remains the strongest challenger after an 8-4 campaign. Cypress Lake’s 6-4 projection largely continues its recent improvement, while Island Coast faces the steepest climb after finishing 1-8.

Bishop Verot carries a 99.0% playoff probability after reaching a regional semifinal in 2025. Lely also holds a strong postseason position following its own regional semifinal appearance, while Cypress Lake sits almost directly on the playoff bubble after advancing to a regional quarterfinal. Bishop Verot leads the district with a 5.0% statewide 3A championship probability, with Lely and Cypress Lake offering smaller secondary possibilities.

VOTE

District 3A-14

Glades Central is the overwhelming projected favorite in a two-team district. Boynton Beach faces a 97-point gap in district championship probability, leaving little uncertainty in the preseason outlook.

Glades Central’s 8-2 projection continues its recent return to winning form after going 9-2 in 2024 and 10-2 in 2025. Boynton Beach is projected to slip below .500 after consecutive 5-5 seasons, and the model gives it only a narrow district-title path.

Glades Central carries a 99.0% playoff probability after reaching a regional semifinal in 2025, giving the district one exceptionally strong postseason position. Boynton Beach’s 23.1% probability leaves it farther from the playoff field. Glades Central also owns the district’s strongest statewide 3A championship probability at 4.9%, while Boynton Beach remains a much smaller title possibility.

VOTE

District 3A-15

Dillard and Cardinal Gibbons create an almost even district race, with identical 8-2 projections and fewer than 4 percentage points separating their championship probabilities. Stranahan sits far behind a top tier that is clearly defined.

Dillard holds the narrowest of projected edges after rebounding from 5-6 in 2023 to nine wins in 2024 and 10 in 2025. Cardinal Gibbons is a credible co-favorite after reaching a state semifinal during a 10-4 season, and its five-year record includes winning finishes every year. Stranahan’s 3-7 projection would improve slightly upon last season’s 2-8 finish, but the district championship gap remains substantial.

Dillard and Cardinal Gibbons each carry a 99.0% playoff probability, giving the district two exceptionally strong postseason positions. Their statewide 3A championship probabilities are nearly identical, with Dillard holding a 5.0% to 4.9% edge, while Stranahan has a much narrower postseason path. The statewide outlook reflects a district with two legitimate secondary title possibilities rather than one dominant Class 3A favorite.

VOTE

District 3A-16

Miami Central is the overwhelming projected favorite, holding more than 96 percentage points of separation over the rest of the district. Key West leads a compressed chase group, but the race for first carries little preseason ambiguity.

Miami Central’s 9-1 projection continues a five-year stretch without an on-field losing season. The Rockets went 8-1 during the 2024 regular season before forfeiting all nine games, then finished 10-2 in 2025. Key West is the clearest alternative after consecutive winning seasons, while North Miami Beach’s 5-5 projection would represent improvement from last year’s 6-7 finish. St. Brendan and Miami Springs occupy the next tier, with Miami Jackson projected to rebound from a winless season.

Miami Central carries a 99.0% playoff probability after reaching the 2025 regional final and owns the district’s highest statewide 3A championship probability at 8.7%. Key West sits directly on the playoff bubble after a regional semifinal appearance, while North Miami Beach remains a secondary possibility following its FIT runner-up finish. Miami Central’s classification championship probability reflects only the traditional 3A title path and is narrower than its broader postseason outlook.

VOTE

The complete projected seeds and regional brackets are available below for Season Ticket members.

Projected Playoff Field

Winning the district secures an automatic place in the FHSAA playoffs. The remaining positions in each regional field are filled through the at-large process, creating two connected races inside every district: the fight for the championship and the broader pursuit of a postseason berth.

The Florida Power Rankings Index provides an independent preseason model of how those races could develop. Each district section includes a standardized 10-game record projection, district championship probability, overall playoff probability and Class 2A state championship probability.

The projected records are not game-by-game schedule predictions. They represent the level at which each program is expected to perform across a standard 10-game regular season based on its preseason FPRI rating and recent results.

District championship probability measures each team’s chance of securing its district’s automatic playoff berth. Playoff probability includes both the district-title route and the possibility of qualifying as an at-large team. Class 2A state championship probability measures each team’s chance of winning the classification title.

The numbers show separation rather than certainty. Bolles, Pensacola Catholic, Immaculata-La Salle and Bradford begin with commanding advantages in their districts, while the races between Cocoa and The First Academy, Cardinal Newman and Chaminade-Madonna, and the leading teams in Districts 2A-6, 2A-8 and 2A-10 feature considerably less separation. A probability above 50% establishes a projected favorite, but it does not settle the race before a game is played.

MaxPreps is the FHSAA’s official rankings source for playoff qualification, seeding and regional placement. The projected bracket included here is not an official FHSAA bracket or a prediction of the final MaxPreps rankings. It is an educated preseason estimate of what the Class 2A field and first-round matchups could look like if teams perform near their current FPRI projections.

Class 2A uses a 32-team playoff field divided into four eight-team regions. Each district contributes its champion, with the remaining positions filled through the regional at-large process.

The projected qualifiers are seeded by FPRI rating to illustrate a possible bracket. District champions may be seeded below at-large teams, and seeding does not automatically determine the host because a district champion hosts an at-large opponent regardless of seed. If a region has fewer than eight eligible qualifiers, the highest seeds without a lower-seeded opponent receive first-round byes.

The official qualifiers, seeds, regional placement and matchups will ultimately be determined through the FHSAA process using the MaxPreps rankings. The FPRI bracket is designed only to provide a preseason picture of how the regional fields could take shape.

These projections will change as results replace preseason expectations. District races will tighten or separate, at-large positions will shift and the regional picture will become clearer throughout the season.

The Open Division is not included in the district tables or the Class 2A bracket projection. That statewide eight-team field draws programs from all six FHSAA classifications and will be covered separately.

Below is the complete preseason outlook for all 10 Class 2A districts, followed by an FPRI-modeled playoff bracket for each of the classification’s four regions.

District 2A-1

Pensacola Catholic stands as the overwhelming projected favorite, with Walton and Freeport separated from the leader but still carrying meaningful postseason paths. Destin begins well behind the district’s top three.

Pensacola Catholic carries the district’s clearest edge after four consecutive winning seasons and an 11-2 regional final run in 2025. Walton’s 6-4 projection represents a rebound from last season’s 4-7 finish, while Freeport is projected to remain at 5-5 for a third consecutive season. Destin faces the steepest climb after consecutive one-win seasons.

The postseason race is more competitive than the district championship probabilities suggest. Walton’s 88.3% playoff probability and Freeport’s 70.4% figure give both teams realistic paths into the regional field, while Pensacola Catholic remains firmly positioned at 99.0%. The Crusaders also own the district’s strongest statewide Class 2A championship probability at 5.1%.

VOTE

District 2A-2

Florida High and Gadsden County form a defined two-team race, with the Seminoles holding a meaningful but not decisive advantage. Rutherford and North Bay Haven remain well behind the district’s leading pair.

Florida High is the projected favorite, but Gadsden County remains a credible challenger with nearly one-third of the district championship probability. Both teams are projected at 7-3, which would represent a rebound from losing records in 2025. Rutherford and North Bay Haven face much steeper paths into the district race.

Florida High and Gadsden County each carry a 99.0% playoff probability, giving the district two strongly positioned postseason candidates. Florida High reached the 2025 regional semifinals, while Gadsden County’s absence from that postseason resulted from its playoff ban rather than the normal qualification process. Florida High holds the district’s strongest statewide Class 2A championship probability at 3.4%, with Gadsden County close behind at 2.6%.

VOTE

District 2A-3

Bolles holds an overwhelming advantage in the district championship race, leaving Baldwin and Andrew Jackson focused primarily on the broader postseason picture. KIPP Bold City begins with the steepest path in the district.

Bolles is the clear projected favorite after consecutive double-digit-win seasons and a 2025 state runner-up finish. Baldwin’s 6-4 projection remains close to its 7-4 record from last season, but the district-title separation is substantial. Andrew Jackson is projected below .500 for a fourth consecutive season, while KIPP Bold City faces the widest gap after an 0-10 finish in 2025.

The postseason outlook extends beyond the district championship race. Baldwin carries a 72.8% playoff probability after reaching the 2025 regional quarterfinals, while Andrew Jackson stands at 50.9% following a run to the FIT regional final. Bolles remains the district’s strongest statewide Class 2A championship contender at 8.2%.

VOTE

District 2A-4

Bradford holds a clear advantage in a district with one credible challenger. Newberry remains within the competitive picture, but Trinity Catholic begins well behind the top two.

Bradford is the projected favorite after four consecutive winning seasons and an 11-2 regional final run in 2025. Newberry’s 7-3 projection represents a rebound from last season’s 5-6 finish and establishes it as the primary challenger. Trinity Catholic improved from 2-9 in 2024 to 4-6 in 2025, and the model projects another 4-6 finish.

Bradford carries a 99.0% playoff probability and the district’s strongest statewide Class 2A championship possibility at 5.5%. Newberry remains in a competitive postseason position at 67.6% after reaching the 2025 regional quarterfinals. Trinity Catholic faces a much narrower path at 10.5%.

VOTE

District 2A-5

Cocoa and The First Academy form one of Class 2A’s strongest two-team district races. Cocoa holds the projected edge, but The First Academy remains close enough to make the championship race genuinely competitive.

Cocoa is the projected favorite after five consecutive winning seasons, including an 8-5 finish and state semifinal appearance in 2025. The First Academy remains a credible challenger, with its 8-2 projection representing a rebound from last season’s 5-5 record. Its absence from the past two postseasons resulted from a playoff ban rather than the normal qualification process.

Both teams carry 99.0% playoff probabilities and meaningful statewide Class 2A championship possibilities. Cocoa leads the district at 6.8%, but The First Academy remains close behind at 6.0%, giving the district two of the classification’s stronger projected title contenders.

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District 2A-6

Clearwater Central Catholic leads the deepest district in Class 2A, but Lakewood, Calvary Christian and Berkeley Prep all carry credible postseason profiles. The district championship race has a defined favorite without becoming a one-team field.

Clearwater Central Catholic is the projected favorite after five consecutive winning seasons and a 2025 regional final appearance. Lakewood is the primary challenger following an 11-2 season and its own regional final run, while Calvary Christian and Berkeley Prep remain within the competitive tier behind the top two. Berkeley Prep’s 7-3 projection would represent a rebound from consecutive seasons at or near .500, while Tampa Catholic is projected to improve after a 1-9 finish.

The postseason outlook extends well beyond the district championship race. Clearwater Central Catholic carries a 99.0% playoff probability, Lakewood stands at 95.9%, and Calvary Christian and Berkeley Prep remain competitive at 72.4% and 59.1%. Clearwater Central Catholic also owns the strongest statewide Class 2A championship probability at 6.0%, with Lakewood providing another meaningful possibility at 4.7%.

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District 2A-7

Cardinal Newman and Chaminade-Madonna form one of the classification’s strongest district races, with both projected at 9-1 and separated by only 0.1 percentage point in statewide Class 2A championship probability. Cardinal Newman holds the clearer district edge, while Saint Andrew’s remains well behind the leading pair despite a strong projected record.

Cardinal Newman is the projected favorite after five consecutive winning seasons and a 12-3 state championship campaign in 2025. Chaminade-Madonna remains a formidable challenger following its state runner-up finish, creating substantial separation between the district’s top two teams and Saint Andrew’s. The 8-2 projection for Saint Andrew’s closely follows its 9-2 record from last season, but its district championship path remains narrow.

All three teams carry 99.0% playoff probabilities, giving the district exceptional postseason depth. Cardinal Newman and Chaminade-Madonna stand almost even as statewide Class 2A championship contenders, while Saint Andrew’s remains a smaller but notable possibility at 3.4%.

VOTE

District 2A-8

Miami Edison holds the advantage in a competitive three-team district, but Miami Carol City and Booker T. Washington remain within reach. The projected order is clear without creating significant separation across the field.

Miami Edison is the projected favorite, with its 7-3 record representing a step forward after finishing between five and seven wins in each of the past five seasons. Miami Carol City remains the primary challenger after consecutive winning seasons, while Booker T. Washington’s 6-4 projection points toward a rebound from its 3-9 finish in 2025.

Each team carries a 99.0% playoff probability. Edison reached the 2025 regional semifinals, Miami Carol City advanced to the regional quarterfinals and Booker T. Washington reached the FIT semifinals. Edison also owns the district’s strongest statewide Class 2A championship probability at 3.3%, followed by Miami Carol City at 2.4% and Booker T. Washington at 2.0%.

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District 2A-9

Immaculata-La Salle holds a commanding advantage in the district championship race, while Ransom Everglades and Gulliver Prep are closely grouped behind the favorite. The projected order is clear, but the broader postseason outlook remains strong across all three programs.

Immaculata-La Salle is the clear projected favorite after consecutive double-digit-win seasons and a 12-1 regional final run in 2025. Ransom Everglades and Gulliver Prep carry identical 6-4 projections and are separated by only 1.3 percentage points in the district championship race. Those projections closely follow their 2025 results.

Immaculata-La Salle, Ransom Everglades and Gulliver Prep each carry a 99.0% playoff probability, giving the district three strongly positioned postseason candidates. Immaculata-La Salle also owns the district’s strongest statewide Class 2A championship probability at 5.0%, with Ransom Everglades and Gulliver Prep presenting smaller possibilities.

VOTE

District 2A-10

Miami Killian holds the projected edge in a district where all three teams retain realistic postseason paths. Somerset Charter remains the primary challenger, while Westminster Christian stays within range despite a narrower district championship probability.

Miami Killian is the projected favorite after rebounding to 8-3 and reaching the regional semifinals in 2025 following three consecutive 3-7 seasons. Somerset Charter carries the same 6-4 projection and remains a credible challenger, while Westminster Christian’s 5-5 mark would represent a step back from its 8-2 finish last season.

All three teams carry 99.0% playoff probabilities. Killian owns the district’s strongest statewide Class 2A championship probability at 1.9%, followed by Somerset Charter at 1.3% and Westminster Christian at 0.9%.

VOTE

The complete projected seeds and regional brackets are available below for Season Ticket members.

Projected Playoff Field

Winning the district secures an automatic place in the FHSAA playoffs. The remaining positions in each eight-team regional field are filled through the at-large process, creating two connected races inside every district: the fight for the championship and the broader pursuit of a postseason berth.

The Florida Power Rankings Index provides an independent preseason model of how those races could develop. Each district section includes a standardized 10-game record projection, district championship probability, overall playoff probability and Class 1A state championship probability.

The projected records are not game-by-game schedule predictions. They represent the level at which each program is expected to perform across a standard 10-game regular season based on its preseason FPRI rating and recent results.

District championship probability measures each team’s chance of securing its district’s automatic playoff berth. Playoff probability includes both the district-title route and the possibility of qualifying as an at-large team. Class 1A state championship probability measures each team’s chance of winning the classification title.

The numbers show separation rather than certainty. Districts 1A-2, 1A-6 and 1A-11 begin with overwhelming projected favorites, while Districts 1A-3, 1A-9 and 1A-10 present considerably more competitive races. A probability above 50% establishes a projected favorite, but it does not settle the race before a game is played.

MaxPreps is the FHSAA’s official rankings source for playoff qualification, seeding and regional placement. The projected bracket included here is not an official FHSAA bracket or a prediction of the final MaxPreps rankings. It is an educated preseason estimate of what the Class 1A field and first-round matchups could look like if teams perform near their current FPRI projections.

Class 1A uses a 32-team playoff field divided into four eight-team regions. Each district contributes its champion, with the remaining positions filled through the regional at-large process.

The projected qualifiers are seeded by FPRI rating to illustrate a possible bracket. District champions may be seeded below at-large teams, and seeding does not automatically determine the host because a district champion hosts an at-large opponent regardless of seed. If a region has fewer than eight eligible qualifiers, the highest seeds without a lower-seeded opponent receive first-round byes.

The official qualifiers, seeds, regional placement and matchups will ultimately be determined through the FHSAA process using the MaxPreps rankings. The FPRI bracket is designed only to provide a preseason picture of how the regional fields could take shape.

These projections will change as results replace preseason expectations. District races will tighten or separate, at-large positions will shift and the regional picture will become clearer throughout the season.

The Open Division is not included in the district tables or the Class 1A bracket projection. That statewide eight-team field draws programs from all six FHSAA classifications and will be covered separately.

Below is the complete preseason outlook for all 12 Class 1A districts, followed by an FPRI-modeled playoff bracket for each of the classification’s four regions along with polls for each district in which you can choose vote on who you think might win their district in 2026.

All Polls close at 11:59 PM EDT on Sunday, August 16, 2026.

Poll Disclaimer

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District 1A-1

Blountstown holds a commanding advantage, with Baker established as the clear second team in the district. Port St. Joe and Holmes County form a more competitive middle tier in the broader postseason race.

Blountstown owns a decisive advantage in the district race, extending a five-year stretch without a losing season and building on its 12-1 state runner-up finish in 2025. Baker remains the only substantial challenger after an 11-1 regional final season. Port St. Joe and Holmes County are closely grouped behind the leading pair, while Northview faces the steepest climb after three consecutive losing seasons.

Blountstown and Baker carry the district’s strongest postseason positions at 99.0% and 92.7%, respectively. Port St. Joe sits near the playoff bubble at 49.1%, with Holmes County still within range at 40.7%, while Northview has a considerably narrower path. Blountstown leads the district’s statewide championship outlook at 5.8%, with Baker providing a secondary possibility at 2.6%.

VOTE

District 1A-2

Chipley holds an overwhelming advantage, leaving North Florida Christian and Marianna in a much tighter race behind the favorite. FAMU DRS faces significant separation from the rest of the district.

Chipley owns nearly the entire district championship probability after five consecutive winning seasons and a 2025 regional semifinal appearance. North Florida Christian and Marianna share 4-6 projections, although Marianna’s mark would represent a rebound from last season’s 1-9 finish. FAMU DRS faces the steepest climb after five consecutive losing seasons.

Chipley’s 99.0% playoff probability gives the district one dominant postseason position. North Florida Christian holds a narrow edge over Marianna for the next-best path, but both remain below 30%, while FAMU DRS has a considerably smaller opening at 6.8%. Chipley also carries the district’s only notable statewide championship probability at 2.9%.

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District 1A-3

Madison County holds the edge, but Taylor County remains a credible challenger in one of the region’s stronger three-team districts. Fort White is separated in the district-title race but carries a meaningful postseason path.

Madison County is the projected favorite, but Taylor County’s 34.1% district championship probability keeps the race competitive. Madison County’s 8-2 projection represents a rebound from its 6-6 finish, while Taylor County remains near the level of its 10-2 season. Fort White faces more separation from the leading pair, though its 6-4 projection continues a five-year stretch without a losing record.

Madison County and Taylor County share 99.0% playoff probabilities, giving the district two of the classification’s strongest postseason positions. Fort White also carries a substantial path at 74.7% after winning the 2025 FIT Rural championship. Madison County leads the statewide championship outlook at 4.8%, narrowly ahead of Taylor County at 4.0%, while Fort White adds a smaller possibility at 1.6%.

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District 1A-4

Hawthorne remains the clear favorite, but Chiefland and Williston give the district exceptional depth behind the leader. All three carry 8-2 projections or better and enter the season with 99.0% playoff probabilities.

Hawthorne owns a decisive advantage in the district race after five consecutive double-digit-win seasons and the 2025 state championship. Chiefland remains the primary challenger following an 11-2 state semifinal run, while Williston’s matching 8-2 projection continues a four-year stretch of winning records. The district-title probabilities show clear separation, but the projected records reflect strength across the entire field.

All three teams carry 99.0% playoff probabilities after reaching at least the regional final last season. Hawthorne leads the statewide championship outlook at 9.0%, while Chiefland’s 5.3% and Williston’s 4.0% figures give District 1A-4 three meaningful Class 1A title possibilities.

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District 1A-5

Trinity Christian holds the advantage, but University Christian remains a credible challenger in a district with two strong postseason positions. Impact Christian sits in a separate middle tier, while North Florida Educational faces a steeper path.

Trinity Christian is the projected favorite after five consecutive winning seasons, including a 9-5 state semifinal campaign in 2025. University Christian’s 25.4% district championship probability keeps the race competitive following its 9-4 regional final appearance. Impact Christian remains within the broader district picture, while North Florida Educational faces the steepest climb despite improving to 6-5 last season.

Trinity Christian and University Christian share 99.0% playoff probabilities, giving the district two of its strongest postseason positions. Impact Christian also carries a realistic path at 59.9% after reaching the regional semifinals in 2025, while North Florida Educational remains further back at 26.7%. Trinity Christian leads the statewide championship outlook at 5.4%, with University Christian providing a second meaningful possibility at 3.8%.

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District 1A-6

Melbourne Central Catholic holds an overwhelming advantage in a district with substantial separation between the favorite and the rest of the field. Wildwood and Father Lopez are closely grouped behind it but face much narrower postseason paths.

Melbourne Central Catholic controls nearly the entire district championship probability despite a projected 6-4 record. The projection calls for a rebound from its 3-7 finish in 2025, when it still reached the regional semifinals. Wildwood is projected to improve from 2-10, while Father Lopez faces a step back from last season’s 6-5 finish.

Melbourne Central Catholic’s 99.0% playoff probability gives the district one dominant postseason position. Wildwood and Father Lopez remain well behind at 15.2% and 12.6%, respectively, despite both participating in the postseason last year. Melbourne Central Catholic also holds the district’s only measurable statewide championship probability at 2.6%.

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District 1A-7

Lakeland Christian holds a commanding advantage, with Victory Christian established as the primary challenger. Fort Meade sits near the center of the postseason race, while Moore Haven and McLaughlin face progressively steeper paths.

Lakeland Christian owns a decisive district-title edge, and its 8-2 projection continues a five-year run without a losing record. Victory Christian remains the only substantial challenger, with its projected 7-3 finish representing an improvement from last season’s 6-6 mark. Fort Meade occupies a distinct third tier, Moore Haven projects at .500, and McLaughlin faces the steepest climb after going 1-8 in 2025.

Lakeland Christian’s 99.0% playoff probability gives the district its strongest postseason position. Victory Christian carries a substantial path at 75.6%, while Fort Meade sits just above the playoff bubble at 51.8% and Moore Haven remains within range at 34.2%. Lakeland Christian leads the district’s statewide championship outlook at 5.3%, with Victory Christian providing a smaller secondary possibility at 1.9%.

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District 1A-8

Carrollwood Day holds a commanding advantage, with St. Petersburg Catholic established as the clear second team in the district. Northside Christian sits near the center of the postseason race, while Zephyrhills Christian faces a much steeper path.

Carrollwood Day owns a decisive district-title edge, and its 9-1 projection follows a 12-1 state semifinal season in 2025. St. Petersburg Catholic remains the only substantial challenger after also finishing 12-1 and reaching the regional final last season. Northside Christian occupies a separate third tier, while Zephyrhills Christian faces the steepest climb despite improving from 1-9 in 2024 to 4-6 in 2025.

Carrollwood Day and St. Petersburg Catholic share 99.0% playoff probabilities, giving the district two of its strongest postseason positions. Northside Christian sits just above the playoff bubble at 51.5% after reaching the regional quarterfinals last season, while Zephyrhills Christian remains further back at 17.0%. Carrollwood Day leads the district’s statewide championship outlook at 7.7%, with St. Petersburg Catholic providing a second meaningful possibility at 3.9%.

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District 1A-9

Community School holds the edge, but St. John Neumann remains a credible challenger in a competitive two-team race. First Baptist is separated from the leading pair in both the district and postseason outlook.

Community School is the projected favorite, with an 8-2 record that closely follows its 8-3 finish in 2025. St. John Neumann remains firmly in the race after going 8-4 last season, giving the district two programs with recent winning results and regional semifinal appearances. First Baptist faces a substantial gap, though its 4-6 projection represents a modest rebound from last year’s 2-8 finish.

Community School and St. John Neumann carry the district’s strongest postseason positions at 99.0% and 92.1%, respectively. First Baptist has a considerably narrower path at 23.3%. Community School leads the statewide championship outlook at 3.9%, with St. John Neumann close behind at 2.8%, giving District 1A-9 two meaningful Class 1A title possibilities.

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District 1A-10

Pahokee holds the edge, but John Carroll remains a credible challenger in a competitive district race. Benjamin adds a strong third postseason position, while Somerset Prep is separated sharply from the top three.

Pahokee is the projected favorite, but John Carroll’s 35.8% district championship probability keeps the race competitive. Pahokee’s 8-2 projection continues a five-year run without a losing season after reaching the state semifinals in 2025. John Carroll has posted winning records in four of the past five seasons, while Benjamin’s 6-4 projection calls for a rebound from last year’s 3-8 finish. Somerset Prep faces the steepest climb after consecutive two-win seasons.

Pahokee, John Carroll and Benjamin each carry a 99.0% playoff probability, giving the district three of the classification’s strongest postseason positions. Somerset Prep remains further back at 26.3%. Pahokee leads the statewide championship outlook at 4.1%, narrowly ahead of John Carroll at 3.4%, while Benjamin provides an additional possibility at 1.8%.

VOTE

District 1A-11

True North holds nearly complete control of the district race, leaving BridgePrep Village Green with a steep climb. The separation extends into the broader postseason outlook, where True North carries one of the classification’s strongest positions.

True North is the overwhelming projected favorite, with its 8-2 projection continuing a five-year stretch without a losing record after reaching the regional final in 2025. BridgePrep Village Green is projected to improve from last season’s 1-6 finish, but the gap between the two programs remains substantial.

True North’s 99.0% playoff probability gives the district one dominant postseason position. BridgePrep Village Green has a narrower but measurable path at 26.7%. True North also carries the district’s only statewide championship probability at 5.6%, making it the lone meaningful Class 1A title possibility in the field.

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District 1A-12

Archbishop Carroll holds the advantage, but Palmer Trinity remains a credible challenger in a competitive two-team race. Somerset Academy Charter South Homestead is separated sharply from the leading pair.

Archbishop Carroll is the projected favorite, though Palmer Trinity’s 28.4% district championship probability keeps the race competitive. Archbishop Carroll’s 6-4 projection represents a slight step back from its 7-3-1 finish in 2025, while Palmer Trinity projects closer to .500 after going 7-3 last season. Somerset Academy Charter South Homestead faces the steepest climb with a third consecutive one-win season projected.

Archbishop Carroll and Palmer Trinity carry the district’s strongest postseason positions at 99.0% and 92.6%, respectively. Somerset Academy Charter South Homestead has a considerably narrower path at 16.2%. Archbishop Carroll leads the statewide championship outlook at 1.9%, with Palmer Trinity providing a smaller secondary possibility at 1.1%.

VOTE

The complete projected seeds and regional brackets are available below for Season Ticket members.

Projected Playoff Field

Division A includes participating schools with student populations of 900 or more. The division is separated into North and South regions, with eight teams from each region advancing to a 16-team playoff field.

There are no districts and no automatic qualifying berths. The final MaxPreps rankings will determine the eight qualifiers and seeds in each region at the conclusion of the regular season. Higher-seeded teams will host each playoff round, although the FHSAA retains discretion to adjust pairings when significant travel concerns exist.

The North and South regional champions will meet for the Division A championship on Friday, Dec. 4, 2026, at The Villages Charter High School. The game time remains to be determined.

The Florida Power Rankings Index provides an independent preseason estimate of how those regional races could develop. Each team receives a standardized 10-game record projection, playoff probability and Division A championship probability.

The projected records are not game-by-game schedule predictions. They represent the level at which each program is expected to perform across a standard 10-game regular season based on its preseason FPRI rating and recent results.

Playoff probability measures each team’s chance of finishing among the eight qualifiers in its region. Division A championship probability measures each team’s chance of advancing through its regional bracket and defeating the opposite regional champion in the championship game.

These projections are not official MaxPreps rankings, playoff selections or seeds. MaxPreps will determine the official postseason field, and the order can change substantially once regular-season results replace preseason expectations.

The probabilities are intended to show separation, not certainty. A high playoff probability represents a strong preseason position, while teams closer to the projected cutoff have less room for error.

North Region outlook

Windermere enters the new structure with the strongest profile in Division A after completing consecutive 10-0 seasons in 2024 and 2025. The program has made a dramatic climb from three consecutive losing seasons, including a 3-7 finish in 2023, to 20 straight victories over the past two years.

Umatilla presents the clearest challenge after improving from 6-5 in 2024 to 11-1 in 2025. Its only loss came during a run to the SSAA Atlantic regional final, giving the Bulldogs both recent postseason experience and the second-highest Division A championship probability.

Innovation also arrives with upward momentum. The Bulls improved from 5-6 in 2024 to 8-2 last season and project as the third member of the North’s leading group.

Oak Ridge occupies the next position after following a 7-4 season in 2024 with a 4-6 finish in 2025. Its rating still places it comfortably inside the projected field, but the gap between Oak Ridge and the top three is substantial.

Lake Buena Vista, Freedom, Pine Ridge and Colonial hold the final four projected positions. Lake Buena Vista improved from 3-7 to 4-6, while Freedom moved from 1-9 to 3-7. Pine Ridge and Colonial finished a combined 4-16 last season, leaving the bottom of the projected field far less secure.

University, Englewood, Atlantic and Cypress Creek begin outside the bracket. Atlantic finished 0-10 in 2025 but reached the semifinals of its SSAA Atlantic consolation bracket, while Englewood and Cypress Creek also enter 2026 trying to recover from winless seasons.

South Region outlook

The South projects as the deeper and less settled regional race.

Somerset Academy begins with the highest championship probability in the region despite falling from 7-4 in 2024 to 4-7 last season. The Panthers still reached the Class 3A regional quarterfinals, giving them recent postseason experience that several other South contenders do not possess.

Oasis follows after consecutive contrasting seasons. The Sharks went 7-2 in 2024 before slipping to 4-7 in 2025, but their preseason rating remains the second-highest in the South.

South Broward, Hallandale, Cooper City and Hollywood Hills complete a group of six teams carrying 99.0% modeled playoff probabilities. Hallandale owns the strongest recent upward trend among them, improving from 3-6 in 2024 to 6-5 and reaching a FIT regional final last season. Cooper City also improved significantly, moving from 2-8 to 5-5.

Hollywood Hills followed a 5-5 season with a 4-6 finish, while South Broward enters after consecutive losing seasons of 4-7 and 3-7.

Belen Jesuit and Fort Lauderdale hold the final two projected positions. Belen Jesuit improved slightly from 2-8 to 3-7, while Fort Lauderdale followed a 4-5 season with a 3-7 finish.

Pembroke Pines Charter and Stoneman Douglas are the closest projected challengers. Pembroke Pines Charter declined from 6-4 in 2024 to 2-8 last season, while Stoneman Douglas improved from 1-9 to 4-6. Forest Hill and Gateway form the next tier behind them.

Division A championship picture

Windermere owns the strongest preseason championship position by a substantial margin. Its 40.0% probability reflects both the highest rating in Division A and the program’s consecutive unbeaten seasons.

Umatilla and Innovation give the North two additional contenders with strong recent momentum. Umatilla won 11 games and reached a regional final last season, while Innovation made a three-win improvement.

The South has greater depth but less separation. Somerset Academy leads the region, followed by Oasis and South Broward. Hallandale’s improvement and postseason run make it another team capable of outperforming its fourth-place championship projection.

That creates two different regional races: a North bracket centered on one overwhelming favorite and a South bracket in which several teams carry plausible paths to The Villages.

The complete team-by-team projections, playoff probabilities, projected seeds and regional brackets are available below for Season Ticket members.

Complete Division A projections

Division B includes participating schools with student populations of 899 or fewer. The division is separated into North and South regions, with eight teams from each region advancing to a 16-team playoff field.

There are no districts and no automatic qualifying berths. The final MaxPreps rankings will determine the eight qualifiers and seeds in each region at the conclusion of the regular season. Higher-seeded teams will host each playoff round, although the FHSAA retains discretion to adjust pairings when significant travel concerns exist.

The North and South regional champions will meet for the Division B championship on Friday, Dec. 4, 2026, at The Villages Charter High School. The game time remains to be determined.

The Florida Power Rankings Index provides an independent preseason estimate of how those regional races could develop. Each team receives a standardized 10-game record projection, playoff probability and Division B championship probability.

The projected records are not game-by-game schedule predictions. They represent the level at which each program is expected to perform across a standard 10-game regular season based on its preseason FPRI rating and recent results.

Playoff probability measures each team’s chance of finishing among the eight qualifiers in its region. Division B championship probability measures each team’s chance of advancing through its regional bracket and defeating the opposite regional champion in the championship game.

These projections are not official MaxPreps rankings, playoff selections or seeds. MaxPreps will determine the official postseason field, and the order can change substantially once regular-season results replace preseason expectations.

The probabilities are intended to show separation, not certainty. A high playoff probability represents a strong preseason position, while teams closer to the projected cutoff have less room for error.

North Region outlook

Mount Dora Christian enters the Independent League as the clear North Region favorite after producing the strongest 2025 season among the Division B programs.

The Bulldogs finished 12-2 and reached the SSAA 11-Man state championship game, completing a substantial rise from an 8-3 finish in 2024. Mount Dora Christian has posted winning records in each of the past five seasons and begins with the North’s highest rating and Division B championship probability.

The Masters Academy follows despite entering 2026 after a significant reversal. The Eagles went 11-1 in 2024 before falling to 5-7 last season. Their broader record, which includes a 9-2 finish in 2023, keeps them near the top of the preseason model.

Jay, Providence and Oak Hall form the next group. Jay followed a 9-2 season in 2024 with a 6-5 finish and reached the Rural regional semifinals last fall. Providence declined from 8-4 to 4-7, while Oak Hall rebounded from a 4-6 season to finish 9-4 and win its SSAA consolation bracket.

Bozeman occupies the sixth projected position. The Bucks finished 6-5 last season after going 5-5 in 2024, but their recent history also includes a 12-1 campaign in 2023.

Hamilton County and Hilliard hold the final two projected positions. Hamilton County improved from 2-8 to 5-5, while Hilliard climbed from 1-9 to 3-7 after winning 16 games across the 2021 and 2022 seasons.

Geneva, Halifax Academy and Trinity Prep begin closest to the cutoff. Geneva fell from 7-5 to 2-10, and Halifax Academy dropped from 5-4 to 1-10. Trinity Prep moved in the opposite direction, improving from 1-9 to 5-6.

South Region outlook

The South presents a deeper race with several programs carrying strong recent postseason credentials.

Lake Highland Prep begins with the region’s highest championship probability after finishing 7-3 and reaching an SSAA 11-Man regional final in 2025. The Highlanders have posted winning records in each of the past five seasons, including consecutive unbeaten seasons in 2021 and 2022.

Foundation Academy follows after improving from 5-5 to 10-3 and advancing to the SSAA 11-Man state semifinals. The Lions have recorded a winning season in four of the past five years and carry the South’s second-highest championship probability.

Southwest Florida Christian also enters with significant momentum. The King’s improved from 6-4 to 9-2 after posting losing records in 2022 and 2023. Their 2025 season ended in the Class 1A regional quarterfinals.

Holy Trinity completed a second consecutive improvement, rising from 5-5 to 7-3 after a 7-4 finish in 2023. The Tigers also reached the SSAA 11-Man regional semifinals last season.

Santa Fe Catholic rounds out a group of five teams with 99.0% playoff probabilities. The Hawks improved from 6-5 to 9-3 and reached a regional final in their SSAA consolation bracket.

Central Florida Christian owns the next-strongest playoff position after producing one of the largest turnarounds in the field. The Eagles went from 3-6 in 2024 to 9-1 last season and advanced to the SSAA 11-Man regional semifinals.

All Saints and St. John Paul II hold the final two projected positions. All Saints rebounded from 2-6 to 9-2 and won its SSAA 8-Man consolation bracket. St. John Paul II slipped from 5-5 to 3-6 but reached the Class 1A regional quarterfinals.

Pine Crest and Orangewood Christian are the first two teams outside the projected field. Pine Crest improved from 3-6 to 5-4, while Orangewood Christian finished 6-5 for the second consecutive season and reached a regional final in its SSAA consolation bracket.

Division B championship picture

Mount Dora Christian owns the strongest Division B championship probability at 16.2%, supported by its 12-win season and appearance in the 2025 SSAA 11-Man state championship game.

Lake Highland Prep follows at 12.3%, giving the South a leading contender with five consecutive winning seasons and recent regional-final experience.

Foundation Academy, The Masters Academy, Southwest Florida Christian and Jay form the next tier. Foundation Academy and Southwest Florida Christian enter with strong upward momentum, while The Masters Academy and Jay are attempting to regain the form they displayed during stronger 2024 seasons.

The South carries more depth among the leading contenders, but Mount Dora Christian gives the North the clearest individual favorite. That creates a championship race built around a proven North frontrunner and a South bracket with several teams capable of reaching The Villages.

The complete team-by-team projections, playoff probabilities, projected seeds and regional brackets are available below for Season Ticket members.

Complete Division B projections

FloridaHSFootball.com has released teams ranked No. 101 through No. 572 in the Florida Power Rankings Index, beginning the Countdown to Kickoff rankings rollout ahead of the start of regular-season play.

For the first time, every FPRI ranking will be available free for all readers throughout the season. No subscription or account will be required to view the statewide rankings.

Separate classification and regional rankings will be introduced later during the preseason rollout.

The Top 100 is intentionally not included in this opening release.

Beginning Thursday, FloridaHSFootball.com will reveal the 2026 Preseason Top 100 through individual team previews, starting with No. 100 and continuing in exact order toward the top-ranked program in Florida.

The opening release includes 472 teams representing Classes 6A through 1A, the Sunshine State Athletic Association, the FHSAA Independent Leagues and independent programs from across the state.

A new preseason starting point

The 2026 preseason rankings are powered by the Florida Power Rankings Index, FloridaHSFootball.com’s proprietary system for evaluating high school football programs across Florida.

The FPRI has undergone a complete rebuild entering the 2026-27 school year, incorporating lessons learned from the 2025 tackle football season and the spring 2026 girls flag football season.

The preseason rankings are not simply a continuation of the final 2025 order.

Instead, the system establishes a new starting point by evaluating multiple seasons of available information and broad factors that include game results, scoring performance, opponent quality, strength of schedule and recent form.

A team’s 2025 record matters, but it is not evaluated in isolation.

Its previous season, level of competition, scoring results and complete recent profile can all influence where the program begins the new year.

Once games begin, 2026 performance will receive increasing weight while the preseason component gradually falls away.

For a complete explanation of the system, read:

How the Florida Power Rankings Index works for the 2026 season:

Records provide context, but they do not determine the rankings

The 2024 and 2025 records, along with 2025 postseason finishes, help explain several of the largest movements in the opening release.

They also demonstrate why the FPRI should not be viewed as a standings table.

A strong record does not automatically produce a high rating. A losing season does not automatically push a team toward the bottom.

Opponent quality, scoring performance, schedule strength and the larger two-year profile all matter.

Some programs struggled in 2025 but are supported by stronger 2024 seasons. Others produced outstanding records last fall but moved lower because their broader recent profile did not rate as strongly.

Postseason advancement also provides useful context, but it does not create an automatic ranking bonus.

FHSAA playoff games, Florida Invitational Tournament games and association postseason games are evaluated as part of the complete body of work. Their value depends on the opponents, competitiveness of the results and how those games fit within the team’s entire season.

A crowded group immediately outside the Top 100

Taylor County (Perry) opens at No. 101, making the Bulldogs the first team outside the Preseason Top 100.

Taylor County finished 10-2 in 2025 after going 7-4 in 2024. The Bulldogs moved from No. 106 in the final 2025 FPRI to No. 101 entering the new season.

Williston follows at No. 102 after finishing 10-2 and reaching a Rural regional final.

Only 1.03 rating points separate Taylor County at No. 101 from Monarch at No. 110, creating a tightly packed group that could change quickly once regular-season games begin.

The group shows how different paths can lead to nearly identical preseason ratings.

St. Petersburg Catholic went 12-1 and reached a regional final. Newberry finished 5-6 and exited in the regional quarterfinals. Niceville also finished 6-5, while Florida High went 5-7.

Despite those contrasting records, the four programs are separated by less than four-tenths of a rating point.

Niceville makes a major move toward the Top 100

One of the most significant rises near the cutoff belongs to Niceville.

The Eagles finished No. 218 in the final 2025 FPRI but enter the preseason at No. 106, a gain of 112 positions.

Niceville’s rating increased from 44.45 to 59.83.

The Eagles finished 6-5 and reached a Class 5A regional quarterfinal in 2025 after going 12-2 the previous year.

That two-season contrast illustrates how the preseason reset can evaluate a program differently from its final position following one uneven season.

Niceville begins only six spots outside the Top 100.

Newberry rises 59 positions

Newberry begins at No. 105 after finishing No. 164 in the final 2025 rankings.

The Panthers gained 59 positions, with their rating increasing from 51.32 to 60.04.

Newberry went 5-6 and reached a Class 2A regional quarterfinal last season after finishing 10-3 in 2024.

Its placement shows how a stronger previous season can remain meaningful in the preseason evaluation even after a sub-.500 campaign.

Gadsden County records one of the largest jumps

Gadsden County (Havana) makes one of the most substantial upward moves among the teams included in the opening release.

The Jaguars climbed from No. 332 in the final 2025 FPRI to No. 145 in the preseason, a gain of 187 positions.

Their rating increased from 31.92 to 54.07.

Gadsden County finished 3-5 last season after going 13-2 in 2024.

The Jaguars’ new position does not erase their 2025 struggles. It reflects a broader recent profile that remains stronger than the latest record alone would suggest.

Booker T. Washington surges despite its record

Booker T. Washington (Miami) enters the preseason at No. 178 after ending 2025 at No. 320.

The Tornadoes gained 142 positions, while their rating increased from 33.56 to 49.56.

Booker T. Washington finished 3-9 last season but reached the semifinals of the FIT 1A-3A bracket. The Tornadoes also went 10-3 in 2024.

That movement reinforces one of the central principles of the FPRI: a team’s record does not provide the complete picture by itself.

The struggles remain part of the evaluation, but so do the previous season, complete schedule and postseason results.

Blanche Ely climbs nearly 150 positions

Blanche Ely (Pompano Beach) climbed from No. 421 in the final 2025 rankings to No. 273 entering the new season.

The Tigers gained 148 positions, with their rating rising from 20.44 to 39.18.

Blanche Ely went 2-7 last season after finishing 8-4 in 2024.

Like Gadsden County and Booker T. Washington, the Tigers demonstrate how a stronger previous season can influence the preseason starting point after a difficult fall.

Columbus moves closer to the Top 100

Columbus (Miami) begins at No. 133 after finishing No. 248 in the final 2025 FPRI.

The Explorers gained 115 positions, with their rating increasing from 41.73 to 55.90.

Columbus finished 4-8 last season after going 9-4 in 2024 and reaching a regional semifinal in 2025.

The Explorers begin 33 spots outside the Top 100 and have an opportunity to climb quickly if their early results support the preseason projection.

Several Panhandle teams gain ground

The opening release includes several notable rises among Panhandle programs.

In addition to Gadsden County and Niceville:

• Escambia (Pensacola) moved from No. 376 to No. 262, gaining 114 positions.
• Marianna climbed from No. 499 to No. 388, a rise of 111 positions.
• Florida High (Tallahassee) moved from No. 162 to No. 108, gaining 54 positions.

Escambia finished 3-7 in 2025 after going 9-3 in 2024.

Marianna went 1-9 last season after finishing 10-1 the year before.

Florida High went 5-7 following an 8-4 season in 2024.

Those year-to-year differences show why the preseason rankings consider multiple seasons rather than treating one fall as the complete identity of a program.

Strong records do not guarantee upward movement

Several teams with successful 2025 seasons moved lower during the preseason recalibration.

The clearest example near the Top 100 is St. Petersburg Catholic.

The Barons finished 12-1 and reached a Class 1A regional final but open at No. 104 after finishing No. 29 in the final 2025 FPRI.

Their rating declined from 75.19 to 60.11.

St. Petersburg Catholic went 5-5 in 2024, creating a different two-year profile than its 12-1 record alone would indicate.

Central Florida Christian (Orlando) also experienced a substantial decline despite going 9-1 last season.

The Eagles moved from No. 100 in the final 2025 order to No. 281 in the preseason, with their rating falling from 61.56 to 37.68. Central Florida Christian went 3-6 in 2024.

Windermere Prep finished 8-3 and was the runner-up in the SSAA 11-Man 1A postseason bracket, but the Lakers fell from No. 236 to No. 403. They went 2-7 the previous year.

Liberty County (Bristol) went 7-3 in 2025 but opens at No. 314 after finishing No. 166. The Bulldogs were 1-9 in 2024.

Those examples do not mean the successful 2025 seasons were ignored. They show that the preseason starting point evaluates the larger recent body of work rather than carrying the final order forward unchanged.

Other notable declines

Several additional programs experienced substantial downward movement:

• Cambridge Christian (Tampa): No. 205 to No. 342
• North Florida Educational (Jacksonville): No. 217 to No. 353
• Eagle’s View (Jacksonville): No. 220 to No. 348
• Trinity Prep (Winter Park): No. 370 to No. 504
• Santa Fe Catholic (Lakeland): No. 145 to No. 264
• Milton: No. 155 to No. 272
• Father Lopez (Daytona Beach): No. 349 to No. 471
• Santa Fe (Alachua): No. 173 to No. 286
• McArthur (Hollywood): No. 51 to No. 153
• Trenton: No. 114 to No. 218

McArthur finished 10-3 last season after going 2-8 in 2024.

Milton went 7-4 and reached a regional quarterfinal after finishing 0-10 the previous year.

Trenton went 7-4 and reached a Rural regional semifinal after posting a 5-8 record in 2024.

Those dramatic contrasts help explain why a successful 2025 season does not always preserve a team’s final ranking in a preseason model evaluating a broader period.

Postseason advancement is part of the résumé

Several programs included in the opening release reached the FHSAA playoffs or competed in FIT and association postseason brackets last season.

Those finishes provide useful context, but the FPRI does not rank teams solely by the round they reached.

A regional finalist can move down. A quarterfinalist can move up. A FIT participant with a losing record can make a substantial climb.

For example:

• Williston went 10-2 and reached a regional final but moved from No. 101 to No. 102.
• Community School went 8-3 and reached a regional semifinal but moved from No. 81 to No. 103.
• Niceville went 6-5 and reached a regional quarterfinal but climbed 112 positions.
• Booker T. Washington went 3-9 and reached the FIT semifinals but rose 142 positions.
• Windermere Prep went 8-3 and finished as an SSAA postseason runner-up but dropped 167 positions.

Those results demonstrate why postseason labels alone cannot explain a rating.

The competition, scores and complete résumé provide the larger context.

Preseason influence will fade during the season

The preseason FPRI establishes a starting point, but that starting point will not remain fixed.

As 2026 games are played, current-season results will receive more weight while the preseason component gradually declines.

Early in the year, the preseason foundation helps prevent one unusual result from creating an extreme overreaction.

As more games are completed, the system gains a larger current-season sample and becomes increasingly driven by what teams accomplish on the field.

By the later portion of the regular season, a team’s position will be shaped primarily by its 2026 results, scoring performance, opponent quality, schedule strength and recent form.

That means every team has an opportunity to move.

Programs outside the Top 100 can climb by performing well against quality competition. Teams beginning near the top can fall when their results no longer support their initial placement.

Tackle football rankings will update weekly throughout the season.

The Top 100 countdown begins Thursday

The release of Nos. 101 through 572 is only the beginning of FloridaHSFootball.com’s preseason rankings coverage.

Beginning Thursday, each team in the Preseason Top 100 will receive a complete individual preview.

The series will start with No. 100 and continue in exact order toward No. 1.

Each preview will include:

• Head coach and district information
• 2024 and 2025 records
• 2025 final FPRI rating and state rank
• 2026 preseason rating and state rank
• Classification rank
• 2025 playoff or FIT finish
• Schedule overview and complete schedule
• Key losses
• Players to watch
• Toughest opponents
• District breakdown
• Playoff outlook
• Schedule difficulty rating
• Projected season range

Each team’s schedule and postseason outlook will be examined through four areas:

• 1st Down — The Gauntlet
• 2nd Down — Strength of Schedule
• 3rd Down — The Proving Ground
• 4th Down — Playoff Picture

The previews will conclude with a season outlook identifying the team’s realistic record range, potential ceiling and the factors most likely to determine whether it meets its preseason expectations.

View the 2026 preseason FPRI rankings

Teams ranked No. 101 through No. 572 are available now on FloridaHSFootball.com’s permanent rankings page.

The Top 100 remains unrevealed and will be added as teams are introduced through the Countdown to Kickoff preview series.

View the 2026 Preseason FPRI Rankings:

The rankings represent the preseason starting point and will update weekly once regular-season results begin arriving.

The Countdown to Kickoff continues Thursday with the reveal of No. 100.

Known as the FPRI, the system will serve as the foundation for statewide rankings, classification rankings, regional rankings, strength-of-schedule analysis, weekly game forecasts and postseason probabilities throughout the tackle football and girls flag football seasons.

The latest version represents four years of development and incorporates lessons learned from the 2025 tackle football season and the spring 2026 girls flag football season.

It is designed to do more than place teams in order.

The FPRI will evaluate schedules, compare programs across classifications, forecast individual games and track district, playoff and championship races as each season develops.

Continuing a tradition of statewide rankings and forecasts

Development of the FPRI began following the passing of longtime rankings expert Joe Pinkos, whose forecasts and power rankings appeared on FloridaHSFootball.com for many years.

Pinkos helped establish the value of combining statewide rankings with weekly game forecasts. His work gave readers more than a list of teams by also providing a way to compare matchups throughout Florida.

The FPRI continues that broader tradition while operating as FloridaHSFootball.com’s own proprietary system.

It is not a recreation of Pinkos’ formula. The system has been developed independently to evaluate the modern Florida high school football landscape, which includes hundreds of programs competing across multiple classifications, associations and independent groupings.

Entering the 2026-27 school year, FloridaHSFootball.com is unveiling the Enhanced Florida Power Rankings Index, a complete rebuild shaped by what was learned during the past tackle and girls flag football seasons.

After that introduction, the system will simply be referred to as the FPRI.

What the FPRI evaluates

The FPRI evaluates teams through a collection of performance-based factors rather than relying solely on wins and losses.

The broad areas considered include:

• Game results
• Scoring performance
• Opponent quality
• Strength of schedule
• Recent form
• Current-season performance
• Available historical performance
• Sport-specific scoring and scheduling patterns

The rankings are not a standings table.

Two teams with identical records can carry significantly different ratings depending on the quality of their opponents, the competitiveness of their games and their complete bodies of work.

A victory over a highly rated opponent can provide more value than a win over a struggling program. A competitive loss against one of Florida’s strongest teams can also be evaluated differently than a loss to a lower-rated opponent.

One result does not tell the entire story.

The FPRI examines how every result fits into the team’s overall résumé and continues reassessing that résumé as additional games are completed.

Why strength of schedule matters

Strength of schedule is a central part of the FPRI.

A team’s record cannot be evaluated without considering the competition that produced it. A 9-1 record against a difficult schedule may represent something different from the same record against a collection of lower-rated opponents.

The system evaluates the quality of each opponent and continues updating that evaluation throughout the season.

That means an early result can gain or lose context later.

A victory can become more valuable if the defeated opponent goes on to have a strong season. A result that initially appeared significant can carry less weight if that opponent struggles afterward.

The same principle applies to losses.

Losing to a highly rated team is not evaluated the same way as losing to an opponent rated considerably lower. The opponent, score and overall performance all contribute to the result’s place within the rating.

The preseason rankings establish a starting point

Every team needs an initial rating before current-season results are available.

The preseason FPRI establishes that starting point by evaluating multiple seasons of available program information and broader performance indicators.

The preseason order is not simply a copy of the final 2025 rankings.

A team may begin higher or lower than where it finished last season based on its larger recent performance profile, schedule quality, scoring results and available historical information.

That is why a program coming off a difficult season may still move upward during the preseason reset when its previous performance provides a stronger foundation.

The reverse can also occur.

A team may have posted an outstanding 2025 record but move lower when its broader profile, including the previous season and strength of schedule, is considered.

The preseason ranking provides context. It does not permanently define the team.

Preseason influence will gradually fall away

The preseason component will not maintain the same influence throughout the season.

As 2026 games are completed, current-season performance will receive more weight while the preseason influence gradually declines.

Early in the season, the preseason foundation helps prevent the ratings from overreacting to a single unusual result. One game should not completely redefine a team when only a small sample of current-season information exists.

As more games are played, the FPRI gains a larger collection of current results and relies less on the preseason starting point.

By the later stages of the regular season, the ratings will be driven primarily by what teams have accomplished during the 2026 season, including:

• Current game results
• Scoring performance
• Opponent quality
• Strength of schedule
• Recent form
• The complete current-season résumé

No team is locked into its preseason position.

A program beginning outside the Top 100 can move upward by consistently performing well against quality competition. A highly rated team can fall if its results no longer support its starting placement.

Recent performance will matter

The FPRI considers the complete season, but it also accounts for recent form.

That allows the rankings to recognize when a team is improving or declining as the year develops.

A program that struggles early but begins producing stronger results later should not be evaluated exactly the same as a team trending in the opposite direction.

Recent-form weighting does not erase earlier games. Instead, it provides additional context for how a team is performing as it approaches district play, playoff qualification races and the postseason.

How postseason games are evaluated

FHSAA playoff games, Florida Invitational Tournament games and association postseason games are included as part of each team’s complete body of work.

A team does not receive an automatic rating bonus simply for reaching a specific round.

The value of a postseason run depends on factors such as:

• Opponent quality
• Competitiveness of the games
• Scoring performance
• Strength of schedule
• The team’s complete season résumé

A regional finalist can move lower during the following preseason reset if its larger performance profile does not support its previous position.

A team with a losing record can still receive value from competing against strong opponents or producing meaningful postseason results.

The FPRI evaluates the games themselves rather than assigning value solely from labels such as district champion, regional finalist or state semifinalist.

Tackle football and girls flag football

Tackle football and girls flag football use the same underlying mathematical foundation, but the two sports are not treated as identical.

Each has different scoring environments, scheduling structures and postseason formats.

The FPRI uses sport-specific adjustments designed to account for those differences while maintaining a consistent statewide framework.

Tackle football rankings will update weekly during the fall season.

Girls flag football rankings will update daily during the spring season as results are entered and verified.

What the FPRI will produce

The FPRI will power a larger collection of rankings, forecasts and analytical products throughout the year.

Those products will include:

• Statewide rankings
• Classification rankings
• Regional rankings
• Strength-of-schedule ratings
• Weekly game forecasts
• Win probabilities
• Projected final scores
• District championship probabilities
• Playoff qualification probabilities
• FHSAA Open Division qualification probabilities
• Classification championship probabilities
• Open Division championship probabilities
• Playoff bracket projections
• Prediction accuracy reports
• Advanced statistical breakdowns
• Weekly written previews and analysis

The ratings will also be incorporated directly into FloridaHSFootball.com’s Top 100 team previews.

Each preview will compare the team’s final 2025 FPRI position with its 2026 preseason rating while using opponent ratings to examine the schedule, district race and postseason path.

Rankings and weekly quick picks will remain free

All statewide, classification and regional FPRI rankings will be available free to readers.

No account or subscription will be required to view the rankings.

FloridaHSFootball.com will also publish a free weekly forecast identifying the team favored to win each game.

Those quick picks will provide a straightforward look at which team the FPRI favors without placing the primary rankings or projected winners behind a paywall.

The permanent rankings page is available at:

What Season Ticket subscribers receive

Season Ticket subscribers will receive the complete predictive layer built around the FPRI.

That includes:

• Exact win probabilities
• Projected final scores
• District championship probabilities
• Playoff qualification probabilities
• Open Division qualification probabilities
• Classification championship probabilities
• Open Division championship probabilities
• Week-over-week probability tracking
• Playoff bracket projections
• Prediction accuracy reports
• Advanced statistical breakdowns
• Weekly written previews and analysis

Season Ticket membership is available for $59.99 per year or $7.99 per month.

Get Season Ticket:
https://floridahsfootball.com/seasonticket/

How forecasts should be interpreted

No ranking or forecasting system can guarantee the result of a high school football game.

The FPRI provides probabilities and projections using the information available at the time.

Unexpected results will happen.

Injuries, player availability, weather, travel, turnovers, coaching decisions and other game-day factors can influence an outcome in ways no mathematical model can completely anticipate.

A team carrying a 70% win probability is favored, but the opponent still has a realistic opportunity to win. The number represents relative likelihood, not certainty.

Projected scores should be interpreted the same way. They represent an expected result produced by the system, not a guaranteed final score.

Forecast accuracy will be tracked

FloridaHSFootball.com will track the performance of FPRI forecasts throughout the season.

Accuracy reports will examine areas such as:

• Straight-up winners
• Projected scores
• Win probabilities
• Performance by classification
• Performance by week
• Changes as the season develops

Publicly tracking the results creates accountability and provides measurable information that can guide future improvements.

The FPRI will continue evolving as additional seasons of verified results become available.

An independent analytical product

The FPRI is an independent analytical product created by FloridaHSFootball.com.

It is not an official ranking produced by the Florida High School Athletic Association, Sunshine State Athletic Association or MaxPreps.

That distinction is especially important when discussing the FHSAA Open Division.

FloridaHSFootball.com’s Open Division probabilities will project each team’s likelihood of qualifying based on available results and the developing postseason race.

Those projections will not determine which teams officially qualify.

The FHSAA’s official selection process and any ranking source designated by the association remain separate from the FPRI.

Why the complete formula will remain private

FloridaHSFootball.com will explain the broad factors influencing the FPRI, but the complete internal formula will remain proprietary.

That includes the exact:

• Weights
• Rating scales
• Adjustments
• Floors
• Benchmarks
• Probability calibration
• Sport-specific calculations

Publishing the complete formula would make it easier for others to copy the system and would limit FloridaHSFootball.com’s ability to continue refining it.

Readers will still be able to evaluate its performance through the published rankings, forecasts, probabilities and accuracy reports.

The results will provide the clearest measurement of how well the system performs.

The Top 100 preview series

FloridaHSFootball.com’s Countdown to Kickoff Top 100 begins Thursday with the reveal of No. 100.

Each ranked team will receive a complete preseason scouting report rather than a short ranking capsule.

The previews will include:

• Head coach and district information
• 2024 and 2025 records
• 2025 final FPRI rating and statewide rank
• 2026 preseason rating and statewide rank
• 2026 classification rank
• 2025 playoff or FIT finish
• Schedule overview and complete schedule
• Average opponent rating
• Combined opponent record and win percentage
• Key departures
• Returning players to watch
• Toughest opponents
• District breakdown
• Playoff outlook
• Schedule difficulty rating
• Projected season range

Each preview will be organized around four areas:

1st Down — The Gauntlet

The most difficult portion of the schedule and the challenges the team must solve during that stretch.

2nd Down — Strength of Schedule

An evaluation of the complete schedule and how it could help or hurt the team’s development, ranking and postseason résumé.

3rd Down — The Proving Ground

The swing games and defining matchups most likely to determine the direction of the season.

4th Down — Playoff Picture

The district race, automatic qualification path, wildcard possibilities and broader postseason outlook.

Each preview will conclude with a season outlook examining the team’s realistic record range, ceiling, potential floor and the primary factors that will determine whether it meets its preseason expectations.

The countdown begins with No. 100 and continues in order toward the No. 1 team in Florida.

The preseason ratings provide the starting point.

What happens next will be determined on the field.

Florida high school football programs claimed 53 spots in High School Football America’s 2026 Preseason Top 300, released Monday and powered by NFL Play Football, extending the Sunshine State’s streak as the most represented state in the country’s most comprehensive prep football rankings. Texas and Georgia each placed 38 programs. No one else was particularly close.

The rankings land at a pivotal moment for Florida prep football. The FHSAA is introducing an Open Division format this fall for the first time in state history — a standalone postseason bracket that pits the top eight MaxPreps-ranked teams in Florida against each other regardless of classification. No more hiding behind enrollment numbers. The question of who is actually the best team in the state will finally get a clean answer.

That context makes every ranking, every placement, and every movement in this list matter more than it ever has before.

STA slips to No. 4 and nobody in Fort Lauderdale is losing sleep over it

St. Thomas Aquinas (Fort Lauderdale), the defending HSFA national champion and winner of seven consecutive Florida state titles, opens 2026 ranked fourth in the country. The algorithm’s reasoning is cold logic — the Raiders went 14-1, with that one loss coming against Mater Dei in last year’s season opener — but the drop from No. 1 to No. 4 will fuel a program that has never needed much fueling to begin with.

Their August 29 opener against DeSoto, ranked 22nd nationally out of Texas, is already the most anticipated early-season game on Florida’s prep calendar. If STA handles it the way they’ve handled most things over the past seven years, the conversation about their national ranking will be very short-lived.

IMG Academy in Bradenton, meanwhile, opens at No. 3 after going undefeated at 9-0 in 2025. The Ascenders play a schedule that annually includes some of the best programs in the country and closes November 13 against No. 6 St. Frances Academy of Maryland — a game that figures to have serious national championship implications. Florida’s fingerprints will be all over the national title race, same as always.

The Open Division bubble is already bubbling

Below the two national independents, the FHSAA-eligible programs with Open Division aspirations are stacked in a tight national band — and several of them have legitimate grievances with where they landed.

Raines of Jacksonville went a perfect 14-0 last season and finished 2025 ranked 17th nationally. They open 2026 at No. 46. That’s the kind of number that gets taped to a weight room wall and stays there until November. Miami Northwestern (No. 26), Miami Central (No. 35), Chaminade-Madonna (Hollywood) (No. 37), and American Heritage (Plantation) (No. 41) round out the core of what figures to be a ferocious Open Division race.

Lakeland (No. 55), Cardinal Newman (No. 57), and West Boca Raton (No. 64) sit just outside that group, with Buchholz (Gainesville) (No. 120) as the most prominent bubble program in the state. The MaxPreps power ratings — which will actually determine the Open Division field — are a different animal than the HSFA algorithm, and a strong non-district schedule could move any of these programs significantly by October.

The most puzzling placement in the entire rankings

Columbus (Miami) went 4-8 last season. They were not ranked in the final 2025 HSFA 300. They open 2026 at No. 113 nationally.

That is not a typo. The algorithm looked past the record and found something — talent level, recruiting pipeline, the quality of competition Columbus was facing — and decided this program is significantly better than its win-loss column suggested. Columbus enters 2026 with more to prove than almost any team in the state, and if HSFA’s formula is right, they’re about to make a lot of noise.

Three programs the algorithm is clearly higher on than most people

Venice climbed 25 spots to No. 77 despite going 9-4 a year ago. The Indians played a difficult schedule, their losses came against quality opponents, and this is a program with enough institutional credibility that the algorithm doesn’t overreact to a down year. Expect a bounce-back.

Miami Norland jumped 42 spots despite going 6-6. Read that again. Forty-two spots, for a .500 team. That is a loud statement about a program the formula believes is loaded with talent that the scoreboard simply didn’t reflect. File it away.

Edgewater (Orlando) (No. 93, up 21 spots) and Jones (No. 86, up 20 spots) both out of Orlando make the Central Florida region worth watching as a collective this season. The I-4 corridor has been building toward something for a few years. These rankings suggest it’s arriving.

The big fallers and what it means

Port Charlotte went 11-3 and dropped 104 spots, from No. 159 to No. 263. That is the steepest single-program decline among Florida schools and almost certainly reflects schedule recalibration — the opponents Port Charlotte beat last year didn’t hold up well once the algorithm reassessed the full national picture. Choctawhatchee (Fort Walton Beach) (-66), Miami Southridge (-63), Vanguard (Ocala) (-60), and McArthur (Hollywood) (-50) all took significant hits despite winning records, for similar reasons.

Buchholz drops 26 spots to No. 120 after going 12-2. The Bobcats remain a Top 125 national program and a legitimate Open Division bubble team, but the competition around them recalibrated this offseason, and they’ll need to respond on the field.

The bigger picture

Fifty-three programs. Programs from Fort Walton Beach to Miami-Dade, from Lake City to Sarasota, from Ocala to Kissimmee — where Osceola sneaks into the national rankings for the first time after going unranked in 2025. Two programs in the national Top 5. A new Open Division format that is going to produce the most compelling postseason in the history of Florida prep football.

The rest of the country has been chasing Florida for years. The 2026 season, with more at stake than ever before, isn’t going to change that.

Fall camp opens July 27. The Kickoff Classics start August 14 while regular season games for FHSAA teams kickoff August 21. It’s almost time.

All 53 Florida Programs in the 2026 Preseason HSFA 300

(*) Denotes asterisk on original record as listed by HSFA.

Source: High School Football America / NFL Play Football, June 22, 2026.

Below are the top teams in each classification, along with the Top 25 teams in Florida, updated weekly during the season based on our FPRI rating system.

HOW THE RANKINGS WORK

The Florida Power Rankings Index (FPRI) evaluates teams using a combination of game results, strength of schedule, and overall performance throughout the season.

Rankings are updated weekly and will shift as new games are played and results are added. Teams may move up or down based on their performance, the strength of their opponents, and how other teams across the state perform.

Head-to-head results are considered, but they are one of several factors in the system. In some cases, a team may remain ranked higher despite a head-to-head loss if they have a stronger overall body of work.

FPRI is designed to reflect the team’s overall performance over time, not just individual game results.

FLORIDA POWER 25

RELATED (SEASON TICKET): See full FLORIDA POWER 504 rankings

CLASS 4A POWER 16

RELATED (SEASON TICKET): See full Class 4A Rankings 1-97

CLASS 3A POWER 16

RELATED (SEASON TICKET): See full Class 3A Rankings 1-103

CLASS 2A POWER 16

RELATED (SEASON TICKET): See full Class 2A Rankings 1-112

CLASS 1A POWER 16

RELATED (SEASON TICKET): See full Class 1A Rankings 1-121

Below are the full rankings for all of Florida, updated weekly during the season based on our FPRI rating system.

TO VIEW THESE RANKINGS REQUIRES A PREMIUM SEASON TICKET OR PREMIUM MONTHLY SEASON TICKET MEMBERSHIP

HOW THE RANKINGS WORK

The Florida Power Rankings Index (FPRI) evaluates teams using a combination of game results, strength of schedule, and overall performance throughout the season.

Rankings are updated weekly and will shift as new games are played and results are added. Teams may move up or down based on their performance, the strength of their opponents, and how other teams across the state perform.

Head-to-head results are considered, but they are one of several factors in the system. In some cases, a team may remain ranked higher despite a head-to-head loss if they have a stronger overall body of work.

FPRI is designed to reflect the team’s overall performance over time, not just individual game results.

Below are the full rankings for all of Class 4A, updated weekly during the season based on our FPRI rating system.

TO VIEW THESE RANKINGS REQUIRES A PREMIUM SEASON TICKET OR PREMIUM MONTHLY SEASON TICKET MEMBERSHIP

HOW THE RANKINGS WORK

The Florida Power Rankings Index (FPRI) evaluates teams using a combination of game results, strength of schedule, and overall performance throughout the season.

Rankings are updated weekly and will shift as new games are played and results are added. Teams may move up or down based on their performance, the strength of their opponents, and how other teams across the state perform.

Head-to-head results are considered, but they are one of several factors in the system. In some cases, a team may remain ranked higher despite a head-to-head loss if they have a stronger overall body of work.

FPRI is designed to reflect the team’s overall performance over time, not just individual game results.

CLASS 4A | 1-97

Below are the full rankings for all of Class 3A, updated weekly during the season based on our FPRI rating system.

TO VIEW THESE RANKINGS REQUIRES A PREMIUM SEASON TICKET OR PREMIUM MONTHLY SEASON TICKET MEMBERSHIP

HOW THE RANKINGS WORK

The Florida Power Rankings Index (FPRI) evaluates teams using a combination of game results, strength of schedule, and overall performance throughout the season.

Rankings are updated weekly and will shift as new games are played and results are added. Teams may move up or down based on their performance, the strength of their opponents, and how other teams across the state perform.

Head-to-head results are considered, but they are one of several factors in the system. In some cases, a team may remain ranked higher despite a head-to-head loss if they have a stronger overall body of work.

FPRI is designed to reflect the team’s overall performance over time, not just individual game results.

CLASS 3A | 1-103