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Hardee vs Lake Wales - finally, this one is back on!

Using the past 20 seasons of data, here is a mathematical projection of the 2019 season. It should be noted, this data is based on past performance and does not take coaching changes, returning players, etc. into consideration. And though entertaining, I would certainly not take it to the bank. After all, you wouldn't play the stock market based entirely on historic data. The first analysis is Classification Strength. This ranking is a weighted moving average combining team power rankings and median power rankings for each classification. It lists the Top 4 teams in each class. The second analysis measures "parity" within each classification using Std. Deviation as the guideline. CLASS AVG Strgth #1 #2 #3 #4 7A 128.33 St. Thomas Aquinas Venice Lakeland Armwood 8A 127.24 Christopher Columbus Plant Apopka Deerfield Beach 5A 125.61 Miami Northwestern American Heritage (Pl) Raines Vanguard 6A 124.42 Miami Central Columbia Robert E. Lee Naples 4A 117.28 Miami Carol City Cardinal Gibbons Cocoa Washington (Mia) 3A 114.23 Trinity Christian (Jax) Chaminade Clearwater Central Catholic King’s Academy 1A 110.19 Madison County Pahokee Fort White Baker 2A 99.58 Champagnat Catholic University Christian North Florida Christian Victory Christian PARITY CLASS STD DEV Highest Ranked Lowest Ranked 8A 12.82 Christopher Columbus Celebration 7A 13.37 St. Thomas Aquinas Tohopekaliga 6A 13.70 Miami Central Lecanto 1A 13.89 Madison County Bronson 5A 14.04 Miami Northwestern Gulf 2A 14.94 Champagnat Catholic Merritt Island Christian 4A 18.66 Miami Carol City Somerset Canyons 3A 18.91 Trinity Christian (Jax) Pinecrest Prep Next will be the same analysis looking at Regional Data and the Top 3 for each Region: CLASS REG AVG Strgth 1 2 3 8A 1 134.32 Apopka Winter Park Bartram Trail 7A 1 132.86 Wekiva Crestview Navarre 7A 2 129.37 Lakeland Armwood Viera 5A 1 128.38 Raines Godby Pine Forest 7A 3 127.48 Venice Dwyer Manatee 4A 4 127.38 Miami Carol City Cardinal Gibbons Washington (Mia) 6A 1 127.01 Columbia Robert E. Lee Mainland 6A 4 126.62 Miami Central Naples Miami Southridge 7A 4 126.35 St. Thomas Aquinas Miramar Atlantic (Del) 8A 4 126.05 Christopher Columbus South Dade Miami Palmetto 5A 3 125.48 Rockledge Jesuit Chamberlain 6A 3 124.75 Braden River Palmetto Hillsborough 8A 3 124.73 Deerfield Beach Vero Beach Palm Beach Central 5A 2 124.67 Vanguard Jones Bishop Moore 8A 2 124.56 Plant Riverview (Sar) Osceola (Kis) 5A 4 123.74 Miami Northwestern American Heritage (Pl) Miami Jackson 3A 3 120.83 Clearwater Central Catholic King’s Academy Berkeley Prep 6A 2 119.51 Largo St. Petersburg Gaither 4A 3 117.59 Glades Central Tampa Catholic American Heritage (Del) 3A 1 115.46 Trinity Christian (Jax) Florida High "FSU" Pensacola Catholic 4A 2 115.45 Cocoa Astronaut Palatka 1A 4 114.10 Pahokee Hawthorne Williston 1A 3 113.33 Madison County Fort White Dixie County 4A 1 112.13 Bolles Bradford West Nassau 3A 2 111.47 Melbourne Central Catholic Lakeland Christian First Academy (Orl) 1A 1 107.51 Baker Vernon Northview 1A 2 107.49 Taylor County Blountstown Port St. Joe 3A 4 105.29 Chaminade (Hollywood) Miami Edison Calvary Christian (FtL) 2A 3 103.78 Admiral Farragut Zephyrhills Christian Seffner Christian 2A 4 103.34 Champagnat Catholic Moore Haven Glades Day 2A 1 95.99 University Christian North Florida Christian FAMU 2A 2 92.72 Victory Christian Foundation Academy Orangewood Christian PARITY CLASS REG STD DEV Highest Ranked Lowest Ranked 1A 1 8.18 Baker Cottondale 8A 1 10.18 Apopka University (Orl) 2A 4 10.80 Champagnat Catholic SW Florida Christian 7A 1 11.06 Wekiva Winter Springs 7A 4 11.40 St. Thomas Aquinas Miami Beach 6A 2 11.92 Largo Lecanto 6A 3 12.11 Braden River Okeechobee 8A 4 12.70 Christopher Columbus Coral Glades 2A 3 12.97 Admiral Farragut Keswick Christian 8A 3 13.07 Deerfield Beach Spanish River 5A 2 13.38 Vanguard Central 5A 4 13.39 Miami Northwestern LaBelle 5A 1 13.47 Raines Paxon 8A 2 13.99 Plant Celebration 7A 3 14.08 Venice Leto 6A 1 14.20 Columbia Englewood 1A 2 14.23 Taylor County Liberty County 1A 4 14.49 Pahokee Bronson 6A 4 14.98 Miami Central East Lee County 4A 1 15.65 Bolles North Bay Haven 5A 3 16.25 Rockledge Gulf 7A 2 16.77 Lakeland Tohopekaliga 2A 2 16.79 Victory Christian Merritt Island Christian 3A 3 16.85 Clearwater Central Catholic Oasis 3A 2 17.29 Melbourne Central Catholic Cornerstone 2A 1 17.29 University Christian Rocky Bayou Christian 4A 2 17.80 Cocoa Umatilla 4A 3 17.88 Glades Central Somerset Canyons 3A 1 18.10 Trinity Christian (Jax) Wolfson 1A 3 18.40 Madison County Bell 4A 4 21.77 Miami Carol City Somerset Academy 3A 4 22.34 Chaminade Pinecrest Prep Finally, we will look at District Data and the Top 2 for each District: CLASS DIST AVG Strgth 1 2 6A 2 141.18 Columbia Robert E. Lee 6A 16 141.07 Miami Central Miami Southridge 8A 1 141.03 Bartram Trail Mandarin 7A 8 139.83 Armwood Tampa Bay Tech 8A 15 138.45 Christopher Columbus Coral Gables 7A 1 138.40 Crestview Navarre 6A 12 138.12 Braden River Palmetto 7A 7 136.12 Lakeland Bloomingdale 5A 2 135.72 Godby Wakulla 8A 4 134.98 Apopka West Orange 7A 2 134.75 Fletcher Buchholz 8A 2 134.42 Seminole (San) Flagler Palm Coast 8A 9 134.02 Vero Beach Treasure Coast 7A 3 133.57 Wekiva Edgewater 7A 10 132.88 Venice Manatee 5A 15 132.72 American Heritage (Pl) Hallandale 5A 9 131.68 Rockledge Palm Bay 5A 6 131.58 Vanguard North Marion 7A 14 129.48 St. Thomas Aquinas Plantation 8A 16 129.35 South Dade Miami Palmetto 5A 5 129.03 Clay Menendez 5A 16 128.99 Miami Northwestern Miami Jackson 5A 3 128.78 Baker County Ed White 6A 14 128.76 Naples Immokalee 5A 12 128.65 Jesuit Chamberlain 7A 12 127.94 Dwyer Palm Beach Lakes 5A 10 127.45 Sebring Hardee 6A 1 127.34 Gulf Breeze Escambia 7A 15 126.97 Miramar McArthur 8A 5 126.88 Dr. Phillips Boone 5A 1 126.86 Pine Forest West Florida 8A 3 126.86 Winter Park Oviedo 7A 9 126.76 Pinellas Park East Lake 6A 3 126.54 St. Augustine Ponte Vedra 8A 14 126.13 Western Piper 7A 16 125.94 North Miami Hialeah 7A 11 125.81 Riverdale Lehigh 8A 8 125.46 Riverview (Sar) Ridge Community 8A 10 125.18 Palm Beach Central Palm Beach Gardens 6A 8 124.63 St. Petersburg Boca Ciega 8A 12 124.11 Deerfield Beach Boca Raton 6A 9 124.05 Lake Gibson Heritage 6A 10 123.59 Hillsborough Jefferson 7A 5 122.71 Viera Harmony 6A 4 122.66 Mainland New Smyrna Beach 6A 7 122.52 Largo Clearwater 8A 7 122.38 Plant Steinbrenner 7A 13 122.17 Atlantic (Del) Ely 6A 13 121.90 North Fort Myers Fort Myers 5A 4 120.90 Cape Coral DeSoto County 7A 6 119.51 Winter Haven Liberty 5A 14 119.42 Coconut Creek Jensen Beach 5A 7 119.09 Jones Bishop Moore 8A 13 118.73 Douglas Taravella 7A 4 118.50 Lyman East River 5A 8 118.15 Nature Coast Tech Hernando 6A 15 117.62 Dillard Boyd Anderson 6A 6 117.32 Gaither Freedom (Tam) 6A 11 116.34 Fort Pierce Westwood Sebastian River 5A 13 116.16 Cape Coral DeSoto County 8A 6 115.41 Osceola (Kis) Lake Nona 8A 11 114.90 Park Vista Santaluces 5A 11 114.14 Zephyrhills River Ridge 6A 5 113.10 Springstead Lake Minneola PARITY CLASS DIST STD DEV Highest Ranked Lowest Ranked 5A 5 4.88 Clay Eastside 5A 13 5.52 Cape Coral LaBelle 7A 4 6.46 Lyman Winter Springs 6A 12 7.25 Braden River Southeast 7A 11 7.26 Riverdale North Port 8A 14 7.28 Western Flanagan 6A 1 7.73 Gulf Breeze Fort Walton Beach 7A 16 8.02 North Miami Miami Beach 7A 2 8.03 Fletcher Creekside 7A 15 8.08 Miramar South Broward 8A 10 8.37 Palm Beach Central Jupiter 5A 2 8.48 Godby Rickards 6A 11 8.56 Fort Pierce Westwood Okeechobee 8A 1 8.84 Bartram Trail Nease 6A 8 9.15 St. Petersburg Dixie Hollins 5A 14 9.46 Coconut Creek Suncoast 8A 2 9.63 Seminole (San) West Port 8A 13 9.70 Douglas Coral Glades 8A 4 9.87 Apopka Evans 5A 3 10.08 Baker County Westside 6A 14 10.52 Naples Lely 7A 1 10.66 Crestview Leon 7A 8 10.97 Armwood Wiregrass Ranch 8A 11 11.13 Park Vista John I. Leonard 8A 3 11.42 Winter Park University (Orl) 8A 9 11.42 Vero Beach Fort Pierce Central 5A 1 11.43 Pine Forest Bay 8A 8 11.48 Riverview (Sar) Haines City 5A 12 11.52 Jesuit Bayshore 5A 8 11.53 Nature Coast Tech Central 6A 9 11.66 Lake Gibson Bayside 6A 10 11.98 Hillsborough King 6A 6 12.28 Gaither Fivay 6A 15 12.34 Dillard Northeast (OP) 6A 5 12.36 Springstead Lecanto 7A 3 12.48 Wekiva Forest 7A 13 12.62 Atlantic (Del) West Boca Raton 5A 15 13.10 American Heritage (Pl) Stranahan 8A 5 13.33 Dr. Phillips Windermere 5A 9 13.54 Rockledge Atlantic (PtO) 8A 15 13.72 Christopher Columbus Miami 8A 7 13.79 Plant Palm Harbor University 7A 12 13.92 Dwyer Royal Palm Beach 6A 7 14.27 Largo Osceola (Sem) 7A 6 14.44 Winter Haven Poinciana 7A 9 14.82 Pinellas Park Leto 7A 7 14.94 Lakeland Strawberry Crest 6A 13 15.03 North Fort Myers East Lee County 5A 6 15.16 Vanguard Belleview 6A 16 15.67 Miami Central South Miami 5A 16 15.72 Miami Northwestern Miami Springs 6A 4 16.10 Mainland Pine Ridge 5A 11 16.49 Zephyrhills Gulf 6A 2 16.59 Columbia Middleburg 8A 16 16.74 South Dade Coral Reef 5A 7 16.76 Jones Tavares 6A 3 17.25 St. Augustine Englewood 7A 14 17.76 St. Thomas Aquinas South Plantation 7A 5 17.95 Viera Tohopekaliga 8A 12 19.09 Deerfield Beach Spanish River 8A 6 19.49 Osceola (Kis) Celebration 5A 10 20.23 Sebring Lake Region 5A 4 20.75 Raines Paxon 7A 10 21.12 Venice Lakewood Ranch

Lol they beat us 3 years in a row with alot of the same core players. They were just nasty and always played their A game in the finals.

Guess you got me! Hawthorne is tired of losing 1 game to Madison. We are 0-1 all-time and we are just tired of seeing them every year. Yep that's what it is. Taylor and Madison should be in the "North"

The series dates back to 1927. Hardee leads the series 16-15. Last game played was in 2011, first round of the playoffs and the two have met in the playoffs 3 times.

I have heard folks on this board talk about Madison having an unfair advantage in terms of their classification. If this is true... My comments above were generalizations. There are numerous means by which a team/coach can create an unfair advantage.

I favor whatever gives coaches and kids today more of a feeling of ownership and equity in the current system. The real problem we have today is not a "system" issue, it's a "people" issue. ...certain people (coaches and parents) who have lost sight of basic tenets of sportsmanship and the reason we have hs sports to begin with....not to win at all costs and get kids into college

But for some reason they didn't do a simulcam of Woods and Dean despite them being 2 fastest

We had 10 very large 6A-8A teams do exactly that when they chose not to be in 6A-8A and form their own independent conference. I will continue to say it, but until the FHSAA starts moving good teams and bad teams down, this will continue to happen.

I think what they have done is basically gone back to playing in a district. I don't see an issue with it. Scheduling has been an issue for these schools and if this is an opportunity to have meaningful games in the regular season it can only better prepare them for FHSAA playoffs. As for criticizing these teams for not being able to beat Madison the last couple of years let us then also throw shade at all the other teams Madco has beaten outside of the 1A championship game.

Since Pahokee, Moore Haven and Marathon are the only public schools in S FL in 1A-3A, maybe they will form their own Southern League. That's assuming they are all like-minded, of course.

A am pretty sure Lincoln - Niceville not happening was money related. Visiting gate much larger with panhandle teams. The Niceville crowd is showing up no matter what.

Madison though is playing 4 dimensional chess while the rest of us are playing checkers. The use of the charter school to siphon enough students away to lower their population numbers is darn near criminal in my opinion. If Madison played in the classification that their numbers are this wouldn't be an issue. As for Pahokee, they are who we thought they are. They couldn't even beat Hawthorne last year. Imagine if every school could do this. Take every kid who could care so little about sports, band, cheerleading and put them in their own school and your population numbers is only kids who want to play sports, cheer, dance, do band, or just come to games. All of a sudden, we might get very different classifications.

Word on the street for Kissimmee Osceola: District: Cypress Creek, Freedom, Celebration, and Lake Nona Out of District: Columbus, Cocoa, Harmony, Manatee, St. Cloud. and Liberty Spring: Edgewater Classic: Lakeland

They’re playing Centennial on 9/27, Cen-10’s full schedule is out on MaxPreps, see below: 8/167:00p @ Astronaut Preview Game 8/237:00p Westwood Preview Game 8/307:00p @ Viera Preview Game 9/67:00p Apopka Preview Game 9/137:00p Lake Placid Preview Game 9/197:00p Sebastian River Preview Game 9/277:00p @ Vero Beach Preview Game 10/47:00p @ Lakeland Preview Game 10/117:00p @ Central Preview Game 10/257:00p Treasure Coast Preview Game 11/17:00p @ Port St. Lucie Preview Game If you have corrections for the CHS football schedule please contact support. EAGLES SPORTSWEAR CENTENNIAL EAGLES FOOTBALL CUSTOM PRODUCTS