Historically speaking, playoff teams that do not finish the regular season as district champion and have 3 or more regular season losses have a very small chance of making a deep playoff run. Back in 1993, the FHSAA started to allow a lot more teams to make the playoffs. The data below shows that the vast majority of these "additional" playoff teams have not fared well. There are some limited exceptions. It makes one wonder if adding some of these additional playoff teams was really worth it, at least in terms of helping us determine the truly best team in each class.
Between 2000-2017, about 1150 district runners-up/wilcard teams made the playoffs in the upper classes (5A-8A from 2011-2016 and 3A-6A from 2000-2010). Of those teams, only 4% made it to a state semifinal or beyond and 1.5% made it to a state final. Only 1% of those 1150 teams with 3 or more regular season losses made it to a state semifinal or beyond.
Listed below are the teams that made a state semifinal or beyond during this time frame. After each team name is their regular season record, the class in which they played that year, and the team that won their district that year. I've italicized some of the outliers.
Here are some interesting facts about these teams during this time frame:
21 of the 45 teams below finished the regular season with one loss.
Only 2 teams that did not win a district title and finished the regular season with 3 or more losses made it to a state final: Apopka in 2014 and Carol City in 2016
Only 12 teams that did not win a district title and finished the regular season with 3 or more losses made it to a state semifinal
Only 6 teams have won a state title without winning a district title: Godby, Apopka, Armwood, South Dade, Carol City, and Miami Central
Apopka won each of its 3 state titles without winning their district those years. Carol City won 2 state titles in years they did not finish as district champion.
One team with a losing record made a state semifinal...Deerfield Beach in 2001. They were in an especially weak region that year.
Classes 5A-8A below
2017 Miami 8-1 (8A-Columbus)
2016 Navarre 9-1 (6A-Gulf Breeze), **Carol City 6-3 (6A-Northwestern), Clay 7-3 (5A-Baker County)
2015 Columbus 9-1 (8A-Coral Gables), Tate 7-2 (6A-Pine Forest), **Miami Central 5-2 (6A-Carol City)
2014 **Apopka 6-4 (8A-West Orange)
2013 **South Dade 9-1 (8A-Killian), Bartram Trail 5-5 (6A-St Augustine)
2012 **Apopka 8-2 (8A-Olympia), **Godby 9-1 (5A-Wakulla), Miami Jackson 6-4 (5A-Norland)
2011 Fletcher 8-2 (8A-Deland), Bartram Trail 9-1(6A-St Augustine)
Classes 3A-6A below
2010 *Norland 9-1 (3A-Belen Jesuit)
2009 *Deland 9-1 (6A-Mainland), Miami Central 9-1 (6A-Northwestern), *Manatee 9-1 (5A-Venice), Lake Wales 8-1 (3A-Winter Haven)
2008 Boone 8-2 (6A-Dr Phillips), Miramar 8-2 (6A-Cypress Bay), *Northwestern 8-1 (6A-Central), Seabreeze 5-5 (4A-Merritt Island)
2007 Cocoa 7-3 (3A-Astronaut)
2006 *Lake Brantley 9-1 (6A-Oviedo), Boone 6-4 (6A-Dr Phillips), Bartow 7-3 (3A-Kathleen)
2005 None
2004 Ely 7-2 (6A-Deerfield Beach), Riverview 7-2 (5A-Sarasota), *Lake Gibson 9-1 (4A-Auburndale), **Armwood 8-1 (4A-Middleton)
2003 Deerfield Beach 9-1 (6A-Ely) **Carol City 9-1 (6A-Northwestern), Dunnellon 8-2 (3A-North Marion)
2002 *Wharton 9-1 (5A-Chamberlain), *Jefferson 9-1 (4A-Armwood)
2001 **Apopka 9-1 (6A-Edgewater), Deerfield Beach 4-6 (6A-Douglas), Dillard 6-4 (6A-Piper), Atlantic 8-2 (5A-Boca Raton),
2000 Miami Jackson 6-4 (6A-Central), Tate 6-4 (5A-Rutherford), *Dwyer 9-1 (5A-PB Gardens), Armwood 8-2 (3A-Haines City)
*State runner-up
**State champion