SPCjessica2004

Jesuit should be a 2 TD favorite over CCC, but they're on there. Trying to keep up with all the Central Florida teams is difficult enough, but it makes it increasingly more difficult when other areas of the state have multiple games every week and we're expected to be knowledgeable on their regions. When South Florida starts up, we'll probably see multiple South Florida games every week. Just looking for some balance in games to be selected.

Well, an improbable season ended in disappointment last night, as Apopka was done in by: 1. Friday 13 (not really); 2. An average kicking game; 3. A gutsy decision by Columbus to go for two instead of taking the PAT and overtime. 
While it hurts to lose a game when your opponent's only lead comes with 8.2 seconds left on the clock, putting things into perspective, Apopka had a great season. After losing its best offensive weapon (Davis-Hamilton) early in the 2018 season, the Darter's looked forward to his return for his senior season. But it was not to be as he aggravated his injury in a non-football related accident in the spring (it is really a pity as this kid had a fine college career and perhaps pro, ahead of him). Going into the spring game, the offense was really bad without him, and in four quarters of football the team managed only 2 points on a safety. 
With the above as the backdrop, I was not expecting much from Apopka this year. And, for the first seven games of the regular season, despite the defense playing stellar football, it seemed likely that Apopka was headed for a first or second round exit in the playoffs as more injuries to offensive players (both skill and linemen) plagued the team. Well, in the second to last game of the regular season against Lake Mary for the district title, a turnaround could be sensed as Apopka won what was expected to be a tight game easily. 
The turnaround was due to two main factors: 1. Some of the injured players returning to health and the team; 2. Some shifts by the coaching staff moving guys from defense to offensive and finding some diamonds in the rough on the bench. 
In the end it was not enough for a fourth state title. Still, in perspective, it was a good season for the Darters. 
Congrats to Columbus on pulling out the win. The two teams were fairly evenly matched, but very different in their strengths and weakness. I feel there will be other Columbus/Apopka finals in the future and I look forward to the chance for redemption. 

Due to the holiday season, this will be our last post for the year so we hope EVERYBODY has a warm and loving Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Year!  Here's a quick run down of the final 2 games:

Florida State High School (11-1) at Lakeland Christian School (10-2)
FSUHS comes into the game ranked #3 in Class 3A with a strength of schedule #10 in Class 3A.
LCS comes into the game ranked #12 in Class 3A with a strength of schedule #19 in Class 3A.

Our Thoughts:
Who would have thought that the state-semifinal would be anything other than JaxTCA vs the region 2 winner? We live in interesting times!  FSU-DRS just happened to have the right team at the right time and has played a few competitive games, upending Pensacola Catholic last week.   LCS comes into the game on a 9 game winning streak having defeated Orlando First Academy.

Prediction:
We think LCS has really come together at the perfect time and they've made an amazing run to the final 4. This is a winnable game for LCS, but FSU's senior class has been knocking on the door to get to the state finals which means they're playing with an edge and a sense of urgency. LCS has built a program that has strong potential to return to this spot for years to come, FSU-DRS is likely in a win now mode.

Our Pick: FSU-DRS by 7
MP: FSU-DRS by 21

Clearwater Central Catholic (10-3) at Chaminade-Madonna (10-2)
Chaminade-Madonna comes into the game ranked #1 in Class 3A with a strength of schedule #4 in Class 3A.
CCC comes into the game ranked #2 in Class 3A with a strength of schedule #2 in Class 3A.

Chaminade Madonna is a 2 time defending state champion and playing like a top 50 team in the country right now. As pointed out earlier, they have more division 1 prospects on this team than the other 3 combined.  Chaminade is currently the highest ranked small school in Florida in the nation by MaxPreps. This team has the formula down pat, take early season losses for long term gains.

CCC is the 2nd highest ranked small school in Florida in the nation by MaxPreps and has accumulated 102 wins in this decade which puts them in the top 10 winning-est programs this decade which is even more impressive since for most of the decade the small schools had 1 less game to play than the bigger schools. They don't boast the overall talent that Chaminade has, but they've scrapped together some improbable wins. On paper, Berkeley Prep, Bishop Verot, Uschool, Clearwater are all better teams than CCC but the Marauders won all of those games.

Prediction:
A south Florida coach who has played both Chaminade and CCC in years past put it perfect.

CCC plays at an 8 every year, they are a very good, solid, strong program. They won't blow you away with talent or razzle-dazzle, but they win big regular games and get to the final 4 every year. They've seen the rise and success of south Florida superpowers Uschool, American Heritage, and now Chaminade, but they've also seen them fall, yet CCC stays the same. The problem is, Chaminade is playing at a 9.25 right now and CCC isn't willing to sell their soul as Chaminade and others have to get to the needed 9.5. They're just happy being an 8 and continue to be an 8 so when Chaminade finally falls and the next 3A Miami superpower rises to a 9.2-9.3, CCC will still be an 8.

The Pick: Chaminade by 28
MP: Chaminade by 3

 

Due to the holiday season, this will be our last post for the year so we hope EVERYBODY has a warm and loving Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Year!  Here's a quick run down of the final 2 games:

Florida State High School (11-1) at Lakeland Christian School (10-2)
FSUHS comes into the game ranked #3 in Class 3A with a strength of schedule #10 in Class 3A.
LCS comes into the game ranked #12 in Class 3A with a strength of schedule #19 in Class 3A.

Our Thoughts:
Who would have thought that the state-semifinal would be anything other than JaxTCA vs the region 2 winner? We live in interesting times!  FSU-DRS just happened to have the right team at the right time and has played a few competitive games, upending Pensacola Catholic last week.   LCS comes into the game on a 9 game winning streak having defeated Orlando First Academy.

Prediction:
We think LCS has really come together at the perfect time and they've made an amazing run to the final 4. This is a winnable game for LCS, but FSU's senior class has been knocking on the door to get to the state finals which means they're playing with an edge and a sense of urgency. LCS has built a program that has strong potential to return to this spot for years to come, FSU-DRS is likely in a win now mode.

Our Pick: FSU-DRS by 7
MP: FSU-DRS by 21

Clearwater Central Catholic (10-3) at Chaminade-Madonna (10-2)
Chaminade-Madonna comes into the game ranked #1 in Class 3A with a strength of schedule #4 in Class 3A.
CCC comes into the game ranked #2 in Class 3A with a strength of schedule #2 in Class 3A.

Chaminade Madonna is a 2 time defending state champion and playing like a top 50 team in the country right now. As pointed out earlier, they have more division 1 prospects on this team than the other 3 combined.  Chaminade is currently the highest ranked small school in Florida in the nation by MaxPreps. This team has the formula down pat, take early season losses for long term gains.

CCC is the 2nd highest ranked small school in Florida in the nation by MaxPreps and has accumulated 102 wins in this decade which puts them in the top 10 winning-est programs this decade which is even more impressive since for most of the decade the small schools had 1 less game to play than the bigger schools. They don't boast the overall talent that Chaminade has, but they've scrapped together some improbable wins. On paper, Berkeley Prep, Bishop Verot, Uschool, Clearwater are all better teams than CCC but the Marauders won all of those games.

Prediction:
A south Florida coach who has played both Chaminade and CCC in years past put it perfect.

CCC plays at an 8 every year, they are a very good, solid, strong program. They won't blow you away with talent or razzle-dazzle, but they win big regular games and get to the final 4 every year. They've seen the rise and success of south Florida superpowers Uschool, American Heritage, and now Chaminade, but they've also seen them fall, yet CCC stays the same. The problem is, Chaminade is playing at a 9.25 right now and CCC isn't willing to sell their soul as Chaminade and others have to get to the needed 9.5. They're just happy being an 8 and continue to be an 8 so when Chaminade finally falls and the next 3A Miami superpower rises to a 9.2-9.3, CCC will still be an 8.

The Pick: Chaminade by 28
MP: Chaminade by 3

 

The other two teams are
Bolles-6 appearances
Champagnat Catholic-5 appearances

You got 6 of them Jessica.  And I made a mistake in the original post...there are 9 schools, not 8.  Got another guess?  There are 3 to go.
Cocoa - 10 appearances
Madison County - 10 appearances
Vicotry Christian - 8 appearances
Booker T Washington - 7 appearances
Clearwater Central Catholic - 7 appearances
Trinity Christian - 6 appearances

UC is one of the 9!  So you got 7 of them Jessica.  Excellent!  2 to go.  
Cocoa - 10 appearances
Madison County - 10 appearances
Vicotry Christian - 8 appearances
Booker T Washington - 7 appearances
Clearwater Central Catholic - 7 appearances
Trinity Christian - 6 appearances
University Christian - 5 appearances

Since there are 9 and not 8 and we missed 2, we'll only take 1 additional guess to keep things even!

University Christian.

They were next on our list of teams we think have accomplished this feat.

Our guess is!

Cocoa
Victory Christian
Madison County
Chaminade
CCC
Uschool
Booker T.
JaxTCA

 

We have become fond of Orlando area football. One of our neighbors is a huge Apopka fan that has slowly rubbed off on us. Our youngest is signing up to play football for the first time for the Jr. Lion mighty-mites in Lake Nona next season. 



 

We have become fond of Orlando area football. One of our neighbors is a huge Apopka fan that has slowly rubbed off on us. Our youngest is signing up to play football for the first time for the Jr. Lion mighty-mites in Lake Nona next season. 



 

SpcJessica2004, I heard a rumor that it is in your marriage contract with your husband, that if either one of you discusses any other classification other than 3A, that the other spouse automatically gets all of the martial assets. Is the true? Thank you lol.

Oh hai guys and girls! In honor of the playoffs heating up, Brad and I decided to put together some information and look at round 2 of the 3A playoffs.  We've posted stuff on twitter for general consumption, but wanted to go a bit deeper into things since we've been told (we know!) that conversation about small school football is hard to come by. We also wanted to put some points out there in response to other conversations from around the state.

Random things we've been meaning to comment on!

--> JaxTCA lost to Ocala Trinity 23-21 in round 1. We'll give OTC their due further down the page, but outside of the Pensacola Catholic  loss in 2012, this has to be the most disappointing loss for JaxTCA in years. Let's be real, nobody wants to play JaxTCA, so they had to play one of the toughest schedules in recent memory. There was reason for hope when they defeated Raines in week 11, but the damage had already been done prior to the playoffs starting. JaxTCA entered the playoffs with more bodies on the sideline than on the field.  We expected JaxTCA to roll through the playoffs, but it didn't happen.  While we think the 2020 JaxTCA team has one of the highest talent and athletic windows in the state, it's also going to have to play another impossible schedule.

--> We no longer live in a world where rankings can be based soley on records, but we also don't believe that just because a team plays a tough schedule they should be given a pass. Like a healthy diet, everything needs to be in moderation. We aren't suggesting 3A teams go play STA every week, but we aren't saying to load your schedule up with 4-6 teams who beat other 4-6 teams either.  This has been a hot topic issue all year.

--> We like the RPI system, but it needs tweaks to the OOWP. We have been in favor of combining 2A and 3A for years. Many 2A and 3A teams have natural rivalries and it doesn't change the geography of the state.

Okay, now let's look Class 3A Round 2. Note, there are two predictions. Ours on top and the Maxpreps Prediction. We did NOT look at Maxprep's predictions prior to making our picks!

Lakeland Christian (8-1) hosts Melbourne Central Catholic (4-6)

LCS started the season off slow, but picked up momentum and has won 7 in a row. MCC has had a rough season this year, but did manage a victory at Frostproof. The Hustlers are balanced on offense and somewhat stout on defense. In their loses teams have had success running the ball.  LCS has been rolling after a week 2 loss to Bishop Verot.  LCS was always our pick to come out of region 2. MCC fights hard, but LCS gets the W.   

LCS by 14
MP: LCS by 9

Pensacola Catholic (10-0) vs Ocala Trinity Catholic (8-2)

Rumors of OTC coming back to power were murmured in DM's, watercooler talk and noises in the night. After defeating JaxTCA the rumors have been verified, OTC is a legitimate football team again. Jamarian Samuel has been a superstar for OTC rushing for just over 2,200 yards and 23 TD's. We watched OTC vs Calvary Christian and even though OTC came up short on that night against a very good Calvary team, we knew they had potential to be great.

Pensacola Catholic is having the season expected of them. They're 10-0 with a hefty senior class. They have a couple of good wins to their name, but no marquee wins. This is a hard nosed, tough football team that can harass quarterbacks.  Catholic has one heck of a homefield advantage in this one. OTC has a 5.5 hour drive (One way), but if they can overcome the early emotion should pick up their second stellar win in a row.  

OTC by 7
MP: OTC by 1

Chaminade-Madonna (8-2) vs Somerset Academy (8-2)

The 2x defending state champions start the playoffs against a good, but over matched opponent. Somerset isn't technically a bad football team in relationship to what their aspirations are, but Chaminade is simply better. The Lions won't need it this week, but they will need to continue to develop Brady Allen and Alexander Law at QB for next week. Also good news, the Lions are pretty much 100% healthy at this point outside of Willie Moise. Kudos to Somerset for a good 8-2 record, but this is the biggest mis-match in all of the small school games in Florida this week. 

Chaminade by 49.
MP: Chaminade by 26

Miami Edison (6-5)  vs Calvary Christian Academy (9-1)

This game is a poster child for throwing out the records. Calvary is having a great season and did pull off quality wins over Benjamin and Miami Christian, but Miami Edison has played some of the best the state has to offer including Booker T, Northwestern, Carol City, Naples, Miami Central, Coral Gables.  Edison has taken some losses, but they did manage to compete in some of those games and even pulled off a win over Carol City.

Calvary has taken a few steps forward, but even with some lopsided losses we're going Miami Edison.  

Edison by 14.
MP: Edison by 4.

Benjamin School (8-3) at Bishop Verot (8-2)

This should be a good game as the Bishop Verot Vikings are having a good season this year having defeated Lakeland Christian, Tampa Catholic and North Ft. Myers. They competed well, but came up short against American Heritage and always tough Uschool.  Benjamin School hasn't been shabby themselves, their win over a good Cardinal Newman team last week was impressive and the Buccaneers have been consistent all season.

We think Bishop Verot has to much speed for Benjamin School, but the Bucs will make this a game. 

Bishop Verot by 10
MP: BV by 10

FSU-DRS (9-1) vs Episcopal School of Jacksonville (10-1)

On paper this game should favor FSU-DRS and Qb Willie Taggart Jr.  FSU's only loss was to super tough Madison County, Episcopal School was blown out earlier in the year by Baldwin but avenged that loss last week 35-25.  This is a high quality match-up, but we're going FSU-DRS in this one. FSU has played a significantly tougher schedule. We just think they have the passing attack to open this game. 

FSU-DRS by 20
MP: Episcopal by 20

Berkeley Prep (8-1) vs Clearwater Central Catholic (8-3)

There are many individuals around the state who feel that this Berkeley Prep team can win class 3A this year. They have a devastating 3 pronged rushing attack lead by one of the better linemen in the state Zach Perkins, a stout passing game and a defense giving up less than 10 points per game lead by one of the top linebackers in the country, Jaylen Harrell. Dom Ciao, the HC at Berkeley is one of the best coaches in the business. They have home field advantage against the teams they need it against and they also have a 21-14 win over CCC.

Of course, that win was in week 1. To say CCC has gotten better since their early season losses to Tampa Jesuit, Berkeley and Brentwood is an understatement. They are 8-1 since starting 0-2. They do hold wins over Clearwater, Uschool, Sebring and a rout of Tampa Catholic. CCC has clearly played a tougher schedule at this point.  We pegged Berkeley facing Calvary Christian in the regional finals playing a classic and surviving. Part of this is because we also felt Berkeley and Calvary were far and away better than the rest of the region. CCC put a running clock on Calvary in the third quarter. Berkeley is better than Calvary, but they aren't playing better than CCC right now. Still, Berkeley has had 2 weeks to prep for this match-up and that will be the difference.

Berkeley by 10
MP: Berkeley by 3

And because we have friends at Tampa Catholic! 4A!

Tampa Catholic (6-5) at American Heritage (5-5)

Tampa Catholic started off the season on fire at 2-0 and winning by a combined 78-14, then they faced 0-2 CCC who finally got healthy and was run off the field. That can be forgiven. TC then caught fire and won the next two games 125-0. They then lost to Berkeley Prep in a game they were down 21-16 with the ball under 2 minutes, but couldn't convert. Then they lost Winter Haven, then they lost to Bishop Verot and for the 20th consecutive year lost to Tampa Jesuit. 

The point? TC is very good at running the score up on bad teams, but not so good at scoring against good teams.   American Heritage is a good team that could be very good if not for being bit by the injury bug.  TC doesn't really have a signature win, but they have levels of competitiveness against good teams. Outside of the CCC game, they were at least in every other game until the 4th quarter.

My understanding is that AHD is finally healthy which doesn't bode well for TC. This is a shame because on paper, TC should be one of the top teams in the state but clearly something is holding them back.

AHD by 14
MP: AHD by 4



 

Do 1A Madison king county.

Great post, we really like reading your stuff.

Oh hai guys and girls! In honor of the playoffs heating up, Brad and I decided to put together some information and look at round 2 of the 3A playoffs.  We've posted stuff on twitter for general consumption, but wanted to go a bit deeper into things since we've been told (we know!) that conversation about small school football is hard to come by. We also wanted to put some points out there in response to other conversations from around the state.

Random things we've been meaning to comment on!

--> JaxTCA lost to Ocala Trinity 23-21 in round 1. We'll give OTC their due further down the page, but outside of the Pensacola Catholic  loss in 2012, this has to be the most disappointing loss for JaxTCA in years. Let's be real, nobody wants to play JaxTCA, so they had to play one of the toughest schedules in recent memory. There was reason for hope when they defeated Raines in week 11, but the damage had already been done prior to the playoffs starting. JaxTCA entered the playoffs with more bodies on the sideline than on the field.  We expected JaxTCA to roll through the playoffs, but it didn't happen.  While we think the 2020 JaxTCA team has one of the highest talent and athletic windows in the state, it's also going to have to play another impossible schedule.

--> We no longer live in a world where rankings can be based soley on records, but we also don't believe that just because a team plays a tough schedule they should be given a pass. Like a healthy diet, everything needs to be in moderation. We aren't suggesting 3A teams go play STA every week, but we aren't saying to load your schedule up with 4-6 teams who beat other 4-6 teams either.  This has been a hot topic issue all year.

--> We like the RPI system, but it needs tweaks to the OOWP. We have been in favor of combining 2A and 3A for years. Many 2A and 3A teams have natural rivalries and it doesn't change the geography of the state.

Okay, now let's look Class 3A Round 2. Note, there are two predictions. Ours on top and the Maxpreps Prediction. We did NOT look at Maxprep's predictions prior to making our picks!

Lakeland Christian (8-1) hosts Melbourne Central Catholic (4-6)

LCS started the season off slow, but picked up momentum and has won 7 in a row. MCC has had a rough season this year, but did manage a victory at Frostproof. The Hustlers are balanced on offense and somewhat stout on defense. In their loses teams have had success running the ball.  LCS has been rolling after a week 2 loss to Bishop Verot.  LCS was always our pick to come out of region 2. MCC fights hard, but LCS gets the W.   

LCS by 14
MP: LCS by 9

Pensacola Catholic (10-0) vs Ocala Trinity Catholic (8-2)

Rumors of OTC coming back to power were murmured in DM's, watercooler talk and noises in the night. After defeating JaxTCA the rumors have been verified, OTC is a legitimate football team again. Jamarian Samuel has been a superstar for OTC rushing for just over 2,200 yards and 23 TD's. We watched OTC vs Calvary Christian and even though OTC came up short on that night against a very good Calvary team, we knew they had potential to be great.

Pensacola Catholic is having the season expected of them. They're 10-0 with a hefty senior class. They have a couple of good wins to their name, but no marquee wins. This is a hard nosed, tough football team that can harass quarterbacks.  Catholic has one heck of a homefield advantage in this one. OTC has a 5.5 hour drive (One way), but if they can overcome the early emotion should pick up their second stellar win in a row.  

OTC by 7
MP: OTC by 1

Chaminade-Madonna (8-2) vs Somerset Academy (8-2)

The 2x defending state champions start the playoffs against a good, but over matched opponent. Somerset isn't technically a bad football team in relationship to what their aspirations are, but Chaminade is simply better. The Lions won't need it this week, but they will need to continue to develop Brady Allen and Alexander Law at QB for next week. Also good news, the Lions are pretty much 100% healthy at this point outside of Willie Moise. Kudos to Somerset for a good 8-2 record, but this is the biggest mis-match in all of the small school games in Florida this week. 

Chaminade by 49.
MP: Chaminade by 26

Miami Edison (6-5)  vs Calvary Christian Academy (9-1)

This game is a poster child for throwing out the records. Calvary is having a great season and did pull off quality wins over Benjamin and Miami Christian, but Miami Edison has played some of the best the state has to offer including Booker T, Northwestern, Carol City, Naples, Miami Central, Coral Gables.  Edison has taken some losses, but they did manage to compete in some of those games and even pulled off a win over Carol City.

Calvary has taken a few steps forward, but even with some lopsided losses we're going Miami Edison.  

Edison by 14.
MP: Edison by 4.

Benjamin School (8-3) at Bishop Verot (8-2)

This should be a good game as the Bishop Verot Vikings are having a good season this year having defeated Lakeland Christian, Tampa Catholic and North Ft. Myers. They competed well, but came up short against American Heritage and always tough Uschool.  Benjamin School hasn't been shabby themselves, their win over a good Cardinal Newman team last week was impressive and the Buccaneers have been consistent all season.

We think Bishop Verot has to much speed for Benjamin School, but the Bucs will make this a game. 

Bishop Verot by 10
MP: BV by 10

FSU-DRS (9-1) vs Episcopal School of Jacksonville (10-1)

On paper this game should favor FSU-DRS and Qb Willie Taggart Jr.  FSU's only loss was to super tough Madison County, Episcopal School was blown out earlier in the year by Baldwin but avenged that loss last week 35-25.  This is a high quality match-up, but we're going FSU-DRS in this one. FSU has played a significantly tougher schedule. We just think they have the passing attack to open this game. 

FSU-DRS by 20
MP: Episcopal by 20

Berkeley Prep (8-1) vs Clearwater Central Catholic (8-3)

There are many individuals around the state who feel that this Berkeley Prep team can win class 3A this year. They have a devastating 3 pronged rushing attack lead by one of the better linemen in the state Zach Perkins, a stout passing game and a defense giving up less than 10 points per game lead by one of the top linebackers in the country, Jaylen Harrell. Dom Ciao, the HC at Berkeley is one of the best coaches in the business. They have home field advantage against the teams they need it against and they also have a 21-14 win over CCC.

Of course, that win was in week 1. To say CCC has gotten better since their early season losses to Tampa Jesuit, Berkeley and Brentwood is an understatement. They are 8-1 since starting 0-2. They do hold wins over Clearwater, Uschool, Sebring and a rout of Tampa Catholic. CCC has clearly played a tougher schedule at this point.  We pegged Berkeley facing Calvary Christian in the regional finals playing a classic and surviving. Part of this is because we also felt Berkeley and Calvary were far and away better than the rest of the region. CCC put a running clock on Calvary in the third quarter. Berkeley is better than Calvary, but they aren't playing better than CCC right now. Still, Berkeley has had 2 weeks to prep for this match-up and that will be the difference.

Berkeley by 10
MP: Berkeley by 3

And because we have friends at Tampa Catholic! 4A!

Tampa Catholic (6-5) at American Heritage (5-5)

Tampa Catholic started off the season on fire at 2-0 and winning by a combined 78-14, then they faced 0-2 CCC who finally got healthy and was run off the field. That can be forgiven. TC then caught fire and won the next two games 125-0. They then lost to Berkeley Prep in a game they were down 21-16 with the ball under 2 minutes, but couldn't convert. Then they lost Winter Haven, then they lost to Bishop Verot and for the 20th consecutive year lost to Tampa Jesuit. 

The point? TC is very good at running the score up on bad teams, but not so good at scoring against good teams.   American Heritage is a good team that could be very good if not for being bit by the injury bug.  TC doesn't really have a signature win, but they have levels of competitiveness against good teams. Outside of the CCC game, they were at least in every other game until the 4th quarter.

My understanding is that AHD is finally healthy which doesn't bode well for TC. This is a shame because on paper, TC should be one of the top teams in the state but clearly something is holding them back.

AHD by 14
MP: AHD by 4



 

Oh hai guys and girls! In honor of the playoffs heating up, Brad and I decided to put together some information and look at round 2 of the 3A playoffs.  We've posted stuff on twitter for general consumption, but wanted to go a bit deeper into things since we've been told (we know!) that conversation about small school football is hard to come by. We also wanted to put some points out there in response to other conversations from around the state.

Random things we've been meaning to comment on!

--> JaxTCA lost to Ocala Trinity 23-21 in round 1. We'll give OTC their due further down the page, but outside of the Pensacola Catholic  loss in 2012, this has to be the most disappointing loss for JaxTCA in years. Let's be real, nobody wants to play JaxTCA, so they had to play one of the toughest schedules in recent memory. There was reason for hope when they defeated Raines in week 11, but the damage had already been done prior to the playoffs starting. JaxTCA entered the playoffs with more bodies on the sideline than on the field.  We expected JaxTCA to roll through the playoffs, but it didn't happen.  While we think the 2020 JaxTCA team has one of the highest talent and athletic windows in the state, it's also going to have to play another impossible schedule.

--> We no longer live in a world where rankings can be based soley on records, but we also don't believe that just because a team plays a tough schedule they should be given a pass. Like a healthy diet, everything needs to be in moderation. We aren't suggesting 3A teams go play STA every week, but we aren't saying to load your schedule up with 4-6 teams who beat other 4-6 teams either.  This has been a hot topic issue all year.

--> We like the RPI system, but it needs tweaks to the OOWP. We have been in favor of combining 2A and 3A for years. Many 2A and 3A teams have natural rivalries and it doesn't change the geography of the state.

Okay, now let's look Class 3A Round 2. Note, there are two predictions. Ours on top and the Maxpreps Prediction. We did NOT look at Maxprep's predictions prior to making our picks!

Lakeland Christian (8-1) hosts Melbourne Central Catholic (4-6)

LCS started the season off slow, but picked up momentum and has won 7 in a row. MCC has had a rough season this year, but did manage a victory at Frostproof. The Hustlers are balanced on offense and somewhat stout on defense. In their loses teams have had success running the ball.  LCS has been rolling after a week 2 loss to Bishop Verot.  LCS was always our pick to come out of region 2. MCC fights hard, but LCS gets the W.   

LCS by 14
MP: LCS by 9

Pensacola Catholic (10-0) vs Ocala Trinity Catholic (8-2)

Rumors of OTC coming back to power were murmured in DM's, watercooler talk and noises in the night. After defeating JaxTCA the rumors have been verified, OTC is a legitimate football team again. Jamarian Samuel has been a superstar for OTC rushing for just over 2,200 yards and 23 TD's. We watched OTC vs Calvary Christian and even though OTC came up short on that night against a very good Calvary team, we knew they had potential to be great.

Pensacola Catholic is having the season expected of them. They're 10-0 with a hefty senior class. They have a couple of good wins to their name, but no marquee wins. This is a hard nosed, tough football team that can harass quarterbacks.  Catholic has one heck of a homefield advantage in this one. OTC has a 5.5 hour drive (One way), but if they can overcome the early emotion should pick up their second stellar win in a row.  

OTC by 7
MP: OTC by 1

Chaminade-Madonna (8-2) vs Somerset Academy (8-2)

The 2x defending state champions start the playoffs against a good, but over matched opponent. Somerset isn't technically a bad football team in relationship to what their aspirations are, but Chaminade is simply better. The Lions won't need it this week, but they will need to continue to develop Brady Allen and Alexander Law at QB for next week. Also good news, the Lions are pretty much 100% healthy at this point outside of Willie Moise. Kudos to Somerset for a good 8-2 record, but this is the biggest mis-match in all of the small school games in Florida this week. 

Chaminade by 49.
MP: Chaminade by 26

Miami Edison (6-5)  vs Calvary Christian Academy (9-1)

This game is a poster child for throwing out the records. Calvary is having a great season and did pull off quality wins over Benjamin and Miami Christian, but Miami Edison has played some of the best the state has to offer including Booker T, Northwestern, Carol City, Naples, Miami Central, Coral Gables.  Edison has taken some losses, but they did manage to compete in some of those games and even pulled off a win over Carol City.

Calvary has taken a few steps forward, but even with some lopsided losses we're going Miami Edison.  

Edison by 14.
MP: Edison by 4.

Benjamin School (8-3) at Bishop Verot (8-2)

This should be a good game as the Bishop Verot Vikings are having a good season this year having defeated Lakeland Christian, Tampa Catholic and North Ft. Myers. They competed well, but came up short against American Heritage and always tough Uschool.  Benjamin School hasn't been shabby themselves, their win over a good Cardinal Newman team last week was impressive and the Buccaneers have been consistent all season.

We think Bishop Verot has to much speed for Benjamin School, but the Bucs will make this a game. 

Bishop Verot by 10
MP: BV by 10

FSU-DRS (9-1) vs Episcopal School of Jacksonville (10-1)

On paper this game should favor FSU-DRS and Qb Willie Taggart Jr.  FSU's only loss was to super tough Madison County, Episcopal School was blown out earlier in the year by Baldwin but avenged that loss last week 35-25.  This is a high quality match-up, but we're going FSU-DRS in this one. FSU has played a significantly tougher schedule. We just think they have the passing attack to open this game. 

FSU-DRS by 20
MP: Episcopal by 20

Berkeley Prep (8-1) vs Clearwater Central Catholic (8-3)

There are many individuals around the state who feel that this Berkeley Prep team can win class 3A this year. They have a devastating 3 pronged rushing attack lead by one of the better linemen in the state Zach Perkins, a stout passing game and a defense giving up less than 10 points per game lead by one of the top linebackers in the country, Jaylen Harrell. Dom Ciao, the HC at Berkeley is one of the best coaches in the business. They have home field advantage against the teams they need it against and they also have a 21-14 win over CCC.

Of course, that win was in week 1. To say CCC has gotten better since their early season losses to Tampa Jesuit, Berkeley and Brentwood is an understatement. They are 8-1 since starting 0-2. They do hold wins over Clearwater, Uschool, Sebring and a rout of Tampa Catholic. CCC has clearly played a tougher schedule at this point.  We pegged Berkeley facing Calvary Christian in the regional finals playing a classic and surviving. Part of this is because we also felt Berkeley and Calvary were far and away better than the rest of the region. CCC put a running clock on Calvary in the third quarter. Berkeley is better than Calvary, but they aren't playing better than CCC right now. Still, Berkeley has had 2 weeks to prep for this match-up and that will be the difference.

Berkeley by 10
MP: Berkeley by 3

And because we have friends at Tampa Catholic! 4A!

Tampa Catholic (6-5) at American Heritage (5-5)

Tampa Catholic started off the season on fire at 2-0 and winning by a combined 78-14, then they faced 0-2 CCC who finally got healthy and was run off the field. That can be forgiven. TC then caught fire and won the next two games 125-0. They then lost to Berkeley Prep in a game they were down 21-16 with the ball under 2 minutes, but couldn't convert. Then they lost Winter Haven, then they lost to Bishop Verot and for the 20th consecutive year lost to Tampa Jesuit. 

The point? TC is very good at running the score up on bad teams, but not so good at scoring against good teams.   American Heritage is a good team that could be very good if not for being bit by the injury bug.  TC doesn't really have a signature win, but they have levels of competitiveness against good teams. Outside of the CCC game, they were at least in every other game until the 4th quarter.

My understanding is that AHD is finally healthy which doesn't bode well for TC. This is a shame because on paper, TC should be one of the top teams in the state but clearly something is holding them back.

AHD by 14
MP: AHD by 4



 

University School threw multiple interceptions early in the game, 2 in the first half, 1 in the second half on drives they were moving the ball.  Bishop Verot was up 6-0 at halftime. In the second half, the Uschool passing game finally got on track and provided separation. Uschool won the second half 21-7.

I admit that we got this one wrong. Bishop Verot appears ready to be a force in their region with their athletes. There are some good video highlights and commentary of the game on the Ft. Myers TV station. I don't have a link but watched it yesterday.

This might end up being a bigger win for Uschool than first thought.

University School threw multiple interceptions early in the game, 2 in the first half, 1 in the second half on drives they were moving the ball.  Bishop Verot was up 6-0 at halftime. In the second half, the Uschool passing game finally got on track and provided separation. Uschool won the second half 21-7.

I admit that we got this one wrong. Bishop Verot appears ready to be a force in their region with their athletes. There are some good video highlights and commentary of the game on the Ft. Myers TV station. I don't have a link but watched it yesterday.

This might end up being a bigger win for Uschool than first thought.

University School threw multiple interceptions early in the game, 2 in the first half, 1 in the second half on drives they were moving the ball.  Bishop Verot was up 6-0 at halftime. In the second half, the Uschool passing game finally got on track and provided separation. Uschool won the second half 21-7.

I admit that we got this one wrong. Bishop Verot appears ready to be a force in their region with their athletes. There are some good video highlights and commentary of the game on the Ft. Myers TV station. I don't have a link but watched it yesterday.

This might end up being a bigger win for Uschool than first thought.

University School threw multiple interceptions early in the game, 2 in the first half, 1 in the second half on drives they were moving the ball.  Bishop Verot was up 6-0 at halftime. In the second half, the Uschool passing game finally got on track and provided separation. Uschool won the second half 21-7.

I admit that we got this one wrong. Bishop Verot appears ready to be a force in their region with their athletes. There are some good video highlights and commentary of the game on the Ft. Myers TV station. I don't have a link but watched it yesterday.

This might end up being a bigger win for Uschool than first thought.

NORTH FL
Raines @ Bartram Trail
Crestview @ Madison County
N Marion @ Columbia
 
CENTRAL FL
IMG @ Hoover
Trinity Catholic @ Dunnellon
Wekiva @ Apopka
Armwood @ Gaither
Winter Haven @ Lake Gibson
Cocoa @ Rockledge
Viera @ Vero Beach
 
SOUTH FL
PB Lakes @ PB Gardens
Columbus @ Atlantic
STA @ Western
Plantation @ Douglas
AH Delray @ Gulliver
S Dade @ Hialeah

Agreed. I would not want to be Bishop Verot this week.

Agreed. I would not want to be Bishop Verot this week.

Agreed. I would not want to be Bishop Verot this week.