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DarterBlue2

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Posts posted by DarterBlue2

  1. 59 minutes ago, Dr. D said:

    Instead, we have a proposal by the FHSAA "Task Force" to do away with district games altogether.  Which means fewer common opponents (which the mathematicians say are needed to make computer rankings more accurate).  So the Power Rankings will be even worse than they are now!  Brilliant!

    It would be funny if it were not tragic. If no district games, why bother with districts, then? Positive change is always good. Change for change sake without thinking things trough or if it's driven by political considerations, often is only leads to a worse situation.

  2. Sanford Seminole vs Lake Mary - Lake Mary silences all the remaining doubters.

    Tampa Bay Tech vs Armwood - I have to go with tradition and pick Armwood here. 

    Eau Gallie vs Rockledge - I usually root for the Raiders, but they don't impress me much this year. 

    Zephyrhills vs Cypress Creek - When I think of Cypress Creek, I think of a really bad Orlando area team.

    Colonial vs Orlando University - I believe University wins this one.

    Hagerty vs Spruce Creek - Hagerty edges Spruce Creek in a nail biter. 

    Tarpon Springs vs North Port - I flipped a coin.

    Godby vs Gadsden County - Godby in a close game. 

    Zephyrhills Christian vs Northside Christian  - I flipped a coin.

    Naples Community vs First Baptist - Battle tested First Baptist exposes unbeaten Naples Community. 

    Picks bold and underscored. 

  3. 22 minutes ago, THIS_IS_DILLARD said:

    Who would you place monarch over ? 
     

    & as for ely their 7-1 record is highly deceiving if you ask me. I saw the tigers 3x this year. 1st time blown out by norland, 2nd time blown out by creek.

    this past Saturday down 21-6 to a horrible piper team only to escape 33-26.

    I believe Dillard, Monarch and Cardinal Gibbons based on the way each is playing right now, are about all equal. 

  4. 6 minutes ago, Jambun82 said:

    The official should have told the coaches that he is not allowed to look at the video, and if the coaches don't not stop talking about the video, then an unsportsmanlike conduct foul will be enforced on the Head Coach. Officials CANNOT look at videos during a game under any circumstances, and if the coaches do not understand this, than they need to be made to understand through a penalty, and possible ejection of the Head Coach if this unacceptable behavior continues. Are Hudson and Williston High Schools relatively close to each other, distance wise?   

    No, not very close. But not like Orlando to Tally far. More like Orlando to Daytona.

  5. I agree with the placing of the first 9. I think Gibbons may be too high. I also think Monarch may be a little too low.  But, overall, the ranking of the bottom 4 on the list could be debated in the context of reasonable people having different opinions all of which have some merit.

    I think the first 2 on the list are in the first tier; 3-7 are in a second tier; 8-9 and 11, are in a third tier; and the rest in a fourth tier. A case could be made for Ely cracking the top 15, but I don't have an issue excluding them.  

  6. 2 minutes ago, Ray Icaza said:

    Thanks for that and hope whomever we meet if we do win our district is a home game as we need all the help we can get. Got to find some consistent offense not so much next week against Toho, but versus those top playoff teams being we most likely would be seeded #8.  Wondering if our coaching staff is considering returning to a power running game, using another RB or WR in the QB role to share that load.  Interesting idea particularly in matchups where we clearly have an advantage in the trenches to run it straight at them.  

    That's probably what they should do the rest of this year. Next year, once you have sorted out the QB situation or one of the kids makes substantial, rapid improvement, you can revert to what you were doing this year. 

  7. 30 minutes ago, Ray Icaza said:

    Thanks, as interpreting the language in the FHSAA site for a simpleton like myself is daunting.:lol:

     

    10 minutes ago, Dr. D said:

    To clarify (see 2023-24 FHSAA Administrative Procedures, section 3.3.1.1.3), 4 district champs and 4 at-large teams are seeded #1-#8 based on the final FHSAA Power Rankings.  The higher seed will always host, EXCEPT in the regional quarterfinal round when a district champ is matched against an at-large team; in this instance, the district champ will host regardless of seeding.

    Thus, University could be the #1 regional seed, despite DeLand being the district champ, and University/at-large would have to travel to #8 seed/district champ Osceola in the regional quarterfinals. 

    Ray, I stand corrected, a district champ would not host in the first round, if they were paired with a higher rated district champ. But you would host in the first round if your opponent was not a district champ regardless of them being seeded higher. It's a fine kettle of fish. 

  8. 7 minutes ago, Ray Icaza said:

    Thanks, as interpreting the language in the FHSAA site for a simpleton like myself is daunting.:lol:

    You are far from being a simpleton. Frankly, the language and the methods being employed to determine the playoffs, who makes them, and what their seeding is, is getting so complicated that it would make both attorneys and CPAs blush. And those professions make their bread, to a large degree, by obfuscation, not clarity. I am not particularly proud to admit that I buttered my bread in one of those fields.   

  9. 5 minutes ago, Ray Icaza said:

    With Deland winning on Friday night over University, they seem to be in the driver's seat for that district title.  Plus I didn't think you automatically were a first round host just by being a district champ.

    Ray, my understanding is that this year, in the first round, all District champs host. In subsequent rounds, the host is the higher seed.

    Going forward, if the new proposals are implemented, that may change. And all the district champ distinction will get you is a playoff birth. 

  10. On 10/21/2023 at 7:45 PM, Dan in Daytona said:

    My favorite economist breaking it down for the masses. Preach Darter preach  :)

    @Dan in Daytona, looking at my life in the rear view mirror, I would likely have been more fulfilled being an Economics professor. Unfortunately, I found the process to get there via a doctoral degree both somewhat distasteful and quite costly timewise with a young family to support. 

    Distasteful in the sense that most doctoral dissertations are actually not based on cutting edge research based on the interests of the candidate or quality of the of the analysis of the data gathered, but rather extensions of the view and theories promulgated by his/her predecessors, who may just happen to be one's "doctoral advisor." 

    Costly in the sense that at a minimum, it adds on at least another two years beyond the completion of the masters degree, and often quite a bit more. All this while earning the princely wages of a teaching and/or research assistant. 

  11. 8 hours ago, DarterBlue2 said:

    Columbus dropped a lot because if they are without their QB then they aren’t really as good as you would believe they are. Like I said I can’t rank someone how I believe they would be at full strength. Even without their starting QB, they played Norland tough. To me, at their current strength, even if the QB never makes it back (I hope that's not the case), they are better than # 24.
     

    Buchholz beat a team who is now 4-4 and you might say B Trail had a tough schedule and only lost to really good teams but that just means you aren’t good. When you lose to the only good teams on your schedule that means you aren’t good. And Buchholz other big win was Vanguard and they just got obliterated Friday. While I am no fan of Gainesville football, high school or college, I have to give credit where it's due. Buchholz beat BT very easily while much higher rated teams (Mainland and St. Auggie) struggled with BT. Certainly, at this stage, Buchholz has earned the benefit of the doubt. Just ask our favorite Lakeland fan on this board his opinion. I am certain that he would say they are the favorite over Lakeland at this point come playoffs.

    Regarding Treasure Coast, they have a chance this Friday to either earn their rating or get booted. 

     

    30 minutes ago, nolebull813 said:

    No. Teams are way different from week 1 to week 10. You can’t compare scores either. And we are just gonna forget about Homestead dog walking them? 
     

    That’s why you can’t daisy chain games. It doesn’t make any sense. 
     

    Palmetto beats Homestead, and Columbus beats Palmetto. So comparing scores, you would say without a shadow of a doubt Columbus will beat Homestead right? WRONG!!!! 

    I see you have crickets related to my rebuttal. I understand, you can't justify dropping Columbus that far or not giving Buchholz their just due. 

  12. 48 minutes ago, Jullian said:

    1) Cham

    2) Norland

    3)Central

    4) AHP 

    5) Cocoa

    6) STA

    7) Venice

    8) BTW

    9) Homestead 

    10) Edgewater 

    11) Mainland 

    12) Lake Mary

    13) Buchholtz 

    14) Seminole

    15) Mia Palmetto 

    16) Armwood

    17) Columbus

    18) St Aug

    19) CCC

    20) NW

    21) Lakeland

    22) Vero Bch

    23) Jesuit

    24) Bishop Verot

    25) Hawthorne 

    Honorable Recog: Williston

    I can find no major fault with your ratings this week. They are certainly much better than what the FHSAA ratings were as of Friday and I think they are better than @nolebull813's this week also. While I could nit pick with the placing of a couple teams, it would be marginal at best, and would come down to slightly different perceptions on my part which may or may not be correct. 

  13. Columbus dropped a lot because if they are without their QB then they aren’t really as good as you would believe they are. Like I said I can’t rank someone how I believe they would be at full strength. Even without their starting QB, they played Norland tough. To me, at their current strength, even if the QB never makes it back (I hope that's not the case), they are better than # 24.
     

    Buchholz beat a team who is now 4-4 and you might say B Trail had a tough schedule and only lost to really good teams but that just means you aren’t good. When you lose to the only good teams on your schedule that means you aren’t good. And Buchholz other big win was Vanguard and they just got obliterated Friday. While I am no fan of Gainesville football, high school or college, I have to give credit where it's due. Buchholz beat BT very easily while much higher rated teams (Mainland and St. Auggie) struggled with BT. Certainly, at this stage, Buchholz has earned the benefit of the doubt. Just ask our favorite Lakeland fan on this board his opinion. I am certain that he would say they are the favorite over Lakeland at this point come playoffs.

    Regarding Treasure Coast, they have a chance this Friday to either earn their rating or get booted. 

  14. Much props for finally giving Lake Mary the credit they deserve. I do have three issues with this week's rankings, though.

    First, Columbus. I think you are penalizing them too much for the loss to Miami Norland. Norland is one of the best, some would argue the best, in the state. Columbus hung tough with them while being short its starting QB. I don't think Columbus should have dropped all the way down to 24. A ranking between 16 and 20 seems a lot more reasonable. 

    Second, Buchholz. This team scored an incredibly impressive win this week, has taken down all it has faced, and seems like a potential state champion at this stage. I think they belong right around the edge of the top 10 like Lake Mary. 

    Third, Treasure Coast High. I continue to feel that they are over ranked by you. Fortunately, this week Vero will likely put them out of the top 25, which is where they almost certainly belong. 

    Finally, I think that aside from the above you have done a very good job this week. Jesuit has finally convinced me that they do belong in the top 25 with a very good win against TBT. 

  15. 2 hours ago, anonimis said:

    What do you think is causing the lines in the scatter plot?  It looks like there are 10 lines.

    image.png.0476b85b496b46f30751882fd6cac897.png

     

    That's an interesting question. Normally scatter plots don't cluster that way. Normally, you would have random dots ascending from let to right, but not almost straight lines. As presented, there seems to be various linear relationships between the strength of schedule and your rating that increase your rating disproportionally when you win more games. I assume that the yellow dot in the top right hand quadrant represents undefeated Chaminade which has had a tough schedule and has won all its games. Contrast that with Cocoa green dot near top right, which has an equally tough schedule according to their criteria, but has a "loss" to St. Thomas. 

    Had margin of victory been included in their calculations, then we would not have those "straight lines" in the data scatter plot. 

  16. 30 minutes ago, Dr. D said:

    Thank you for your work and explaining your methodology.  Confirms what seemed intuitive initially within the parameters available. 

    The next question would be whether the FHSAA Power Rankings as currently constructed are an accurate measure of the relative strength of teams, but I'll leave that for another day. 

     

    Now that's the million dollar question; for the measures of mean, median and variance are meaningless if the relative strength of the teams is not calculated correctly. 

    If we are going to continue using the current methodology, which, to me seems flawed, at a minimum, the way in which it is calculated should be disclosed. That's the only way teams on the bubble can double check to see if their elimination/inclusion was even computed accurately regardless of any inherent flaws that the method may have. 

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