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Sharkbait

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  1. Like
    Sharkbait reacted to gatorman-uf in Cocoa Beach factor in play-offs   
    I will also continue to say the old system was not a dumpster fire, the very best teams always made the playoffs. Did a team that today we might consider the 6th seed not make the playoffs in the old system? Yep. Did a team that would be ranked 16th in the new system be in the playoffs occasionally? Yep.

    But those sins are a lot smaller than the consensus best teams in the classifications not making it. And again, the really bad teams making the playoffs happens because of small districts, something that was easier to fix than the radical chance this untested was. 

    In the old system, some of the best teams might have been on the road for 4 games, but they were in it. We have had numerous posts about how 2 top ranked teams might miss the playoffs all together for scheduling tough. The thing is that if those teams scheduled tough in the old system, they still make the playoffs. I will continually ask and nobody ever seems to answer, but how did the old system discourage teams from playing a tough schedule? If you lost against a good team, it didn't hurt your chances of ultimately achieving your goal of making the playoffs and winning a state championship. Now, if you schedule tough and lose a couple, you might not be in the playoffs.
    Teams are going to figure this out quickly. Again, the problem of blowouts is because we put teams of different quality in the same districts/classifications. Look at Bolles playing Westside (Jacksonville) or this Friday playing Terry Parker. Bolles is already playing up, but neither Parker not Westside should be competing against Bolles.

    The current system says 35 points for a Category 4 win vs 30 for a Category 1 loss. Some say that losing to a 10-0 by 1 point should mean more than beating an 0-10 by 50. They say decrease the Category 4 win points and increase Category 1 loss points. At that point, you will see teams schedule tougher, but to what end? One of the original proposals did something similar and an 0-10 Creekside would have made the playoffs that year because of the difficulty of their schedule. 

    Again, if you want better games, eliminate one classification from 4A-8A. The longer a team goes without making the playoffs subtract students from their population, the more and deeper they make it, add more students. This will eventually even out. With bad schools moving down, good schools moving up. As bad schools move down they will become more competitive, learn to win, and able to move back up. As good schools move up, they will become less dominating and either become better or move back down to become competitive.
  2. Like
    Sharkbait got a reaction from DisabledAccount in Florida high school football records   
    Hey I don't remember if I have shared this before but this guy has some pretty cool info on twitter   Richard Burton‏ @FLFBRecords
  3. Like
    Sharkbait got a reaction from DarterBlue2 in Fhsaa Points vs Laz Index vs Max Preps 1A , 2A, 3A, 4A   
    Hey Badbird thanks for putting this together.  It gives a pretty clear layout of things along with some good insights.  A lot of things will sort out this week.  
  4. Like
    Sharkbait got a reaction from Dan in Daytona in Fhsaa Points vs Laz Index vs Max Preps 1A , 2A, 3A, 4A   
    Hey Badbird thanks for putting this together.  It gives a pretty clear layout of things along with some good insights.  A lot of things will sort out this week.  
  5. Like
    Sharkbait got a reaction from DisabledAccount in Week 9 Joe pinkos power rankings   
    I'm mostly talking about his spread we can all be 70-80 %  picking games but his spreads have been way off and those are based on subtracting the ratings from one another.  In 2015 he was nailing the spreads within a point or two but be is off by 15 regularly.  I know it is not an exact science and I appreciate his effort, your effort, and anyone else's that puts the time and work into this.
  6. Like
    Sharkbait reacted to Roadkillav8r in Chocawatchee   
    With the current transfer rules I'm not sure the areas of the state with less dense populations will be able to compete on a regular basis with the central and southern teams.   It's all about numbers of players available.  Sure, any school could win the lucky sperm contest and have 2 or 3 real 5 star players that enable a run but using just home grown talent with the current rules you don't stand a chance year in and year out.  
  7. Like
    Sharkbait got a reaction from DisabledAccount in Point System Issues?   
    Because you will never stop blowouts in the playoffs.  A very simple example of this is 2014 Port St Joe wins the 1A championship over Hamilton County they return in 2015 for the championship and get throttled 56-21 in the title game.  A defending state champ getting beat by 35,  would you say they didn't deserve to be there or is there just times that great teams come along and impose their will on everyone else.  There will be blowouts in the playoffs this year as there always has and always will be.
  8. Like
    Sharkbait reacted to gatorman-uf in Point System Issues?   
    While I am not one to defend the system (let us see how it works out), In the FHSAA's defense, I think they did a good job of explaining it. They had several workshops, allowed coaches feedback through the internet poll, etc. Additionally, all FHSAA sports have an advisory committee that was allowed to make some changes. They had to make the change last year or you have to go to this season and next season to make the changes, because the schedules would have already been determined next year. 

    The problem is that other than some numbers nerds like me, nobody was seeing how it worked out. Nobody ran the simulations. At the same time, they promised teams would be rewarded for playing good teams(and they are, if they win) so good teams scheduled other good teams. They also forgot to show that if all the good teams played each and beat up on each other than those "quality" wins wouldn't be quality wins anymore and thus you might not make the playoffs. 

    The very first incantation of this idea I showed how a team who was 0-10 would have been very close to the playoffs (they scraped that idea). Long term, I think there are elements of this that would work, but the reality is that this doesn't fix the problem they were most upset about (blowouts in playoff games). 
     
  9. Like
    Sharkbait got a reaction from Zoe Boy in Point System Issues?   
    This whole system was rushed into by fhsaa.  They did a terrible job explaining it to the coaches, ideally you would keep the old system another year but have teams schedule their non-district by the new system and see how the points system worked without it affecting their playoff chances, that would heip everyone for future scheduling.  But I guess the problem everyone had was the blowout games so if this new system is able to keep teams like Booker T and Pakokee maybe there will be less blowouts.
  10. Like
    Sharkbait reacted to badbird in Point System Issues?   
    that would be great.  It would make a mockery of the system
  11. Thanks
    Sharkbait reacted to gatorman-uf in Week 8 Playoff Projections & Points System Updates!   
    But why? Why should when a 7A school plays and beats a 1A school count towards if you make the playoffs? In the system you are defending, it does. No, if Columbia beats Madison County it shouldn't count towards them making the playoffs. The size difference alone makes it ridiculous. Columbia should beat them, they have 4 times as many students to pull from. 
    But at the same time, Columbia should play them if for nothing else the gate. Why should only 4 games count instead of 10, because not all games are created equal. The idea that the district champion and runner-up make the playoff is fair, because those 5 teams all played the exact same opponents and have the same school size and are close geographically. You have an apples to apples comparison. In this new system, you have apples to cantaloupes to bananas comparison in terms of schedule and the value of your opponent's schedule.  
    Let me type in smaller words. You said, only district games counted in the past... if so, why do you keep talking about the winningest football in North Florida history, if the only games that counted in the past were district games. Shouldn't you only care about the results of those? But no, you do care about the results of GHS, BHS, and SHS, because those games mattered to those players, coaches, and fans. Just not for the playoffs.
    You realize that even when Suwannee is good (like state championship level good), CHS still dominates. It isn't even a rivalry anymore other than the fact they are close, why is beating up on them worthy of playoffs... play the game because of history and tradition, but the game is stupid for the purpose of playoffs. Beating Suwannee should happen, rewarding points for it is stupid. 
    Again, you can only control what happens on your field. Columbia beat a solid Trinity Christian team. Imagine though if the ineligible player didn't just play against Bolles, but in every game. The 48 or 53 points that CHS gains from beating TC goes down to 38 as TC is forced to forfeit every game. Is that fair to CHS? Absolutely not, and that is why we only used district games. The district games made sure the district champ and runner-up were all judged by the same exact criteria. 
    .....
    Again, FHSAA is trying to solve something that wasn't issue. The average fan does not care any more than they did previously. After next season, you are going to see a lot of good teams going back to trying to schedule weak teams to pad their schedule. As the risk of playing a tough team is not worth the risk. 
    -----
    Several moons ago, Miami Northwestern played at Southlake Carroll in a tremendous game at SMU stadium in Dallas. It was a great game, the game played a role in the mythical nation championship, but in reality had no bearing on the ability of Miami Northwestern to play in the state playoffs, which is good. If they lose the game, who knows. 

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  12. Like
    Sharkbait reacted to DarterBlue2 in So Zoe boy tell us again how great booker t is   
    Those team play at Gene Cox, I believe. Or at least they used to back in the mid 2000s.
  13. Like
    Sharkbait got a reaction from Cat_Scratch in So Zoe boy tell us again how great booker t is   
    Bay County has Tommy Oliver Stadium (under major renovation this year)where Bay, Mosley, Rutherford, and North Bay Haven call home.  Arnold (PC Beach)and Bozeman(Sandhills/Southport) have stadiums  on campus.  In Tallahassee  Fla High, Leon,  Chiles, McClay, and NFC have on campus stadiums.
  14. Like
    Sharkbait reacted to badbird in Week 8 Playoff Projections & Points System Updates!   
    then put everyone in a 8 team district with people in their own class and now 7 count and you can play 3 rivals.  Or put them in an 11 team district and now they all count.
  15. Like
    Sharkbait reacted to gatorman-uf in Week 8 Playoff Projections & Points System Updates!   
    Josh,
    I asked the question from the very beginning (check the archives), how did the old system discourage playing a tough out of district opponent? Nobody has ever answered it, because simply the answer does not exist. If you lost the game, you lost, but than you focused on district play. Did all games matter, no. But now, things as a coach that you cannot control matter that shouldn't. Trinity Christian beat Bolles, but now with Trinity Christian having to forfeit the game, it not only affects Trinity, but now effects everyone else as well. Is that really fair to those teams that TC plays if that affects what bracket TC is in?
    This happened in basketball over 8 years ago, a boys basketball was very good. They were dominating for their classification. They ended up finding out that they had used an ineligible player for all of their games. They paid the fine, but were allowed to play in the district tournament (but having forfeited all the games). They went from a #1 seed to a #5 (in a 5 team district). They beat the #4 team. They then had to play the formerly #2 team in the semi-finals of district play. They won. Now, think of the #2 team, they are eliminated in the semi-finals instead of the finals (thus missing state playoffs if they had been the #2 seed). I don't like when things off the court affect the results on the court.

    I was told numerous times that the advantage of the "new" system was that teams would play a more challenging schedule and be rewarded for it. Let's be honest, the FHSAA screwed it up. You don't actually receive a reward for playing a "tough" schedule. If you play a tough schedule and go 6-4, it will not be better than play some barely above cupcake power teams, winning, and going 10-0. Sure, you aren't ready for the playoffs, but you are in the playoffs, play the easiest seed, and probably get a home game or 2. After that who cares.
    Again, we tried solving a problem that didn't exist. The best teams make it to the state championships, but they still had blowouts, this new playoff system won't fix that. The reality is that we have a bunch of teams that are just better than the classification they are in. We could have kept the old system, allowed good teams to move up until they are no longer dominating, but merely competitive. We should force bad teams down until they are competitive.
    Do I think there is a class that would make STA merely competitive? No, but we could try. 

     
  16. Like
    Sharkbait reacted to DarterBlue2 in Week 8 Playoff Projections & Points System Updates!   
    Too harsh. Perhaps a three year ban!!
  17. Haha
    Sharkbait got a reaction from DarterBlue2 in Week 8 Playoff Projections & Points System Updates!   
    I think what we should do is any team that wins state be banned from the playoffs for 20 years that will give teams that never win a chance.  
  18. Haha
    Sharkbait got a reaction from badbird in Week 8 Playoff Projections & Points System Updates!   
    I think what we should do is any team that wins state be banned from the playoffs for 20 years that will give teams that never win a chance.  
  19. Like
    Sharkbait reacted to badbird in Season rankings   
    they played Columbia so they get 50 bonus spots
  20. Like
    Sharkbait reacted to Willie Stargell in What's up in here?   
    Wofford has done okay...Del Rio has found a niche...Tebow...I'm just throwing names out there...I see your point.
  21. Haha
    Sharkbait got a reaction from badbird in Florida State 20 vs Miami 24 Final   
    I guess FSU will drop all the way down to #25 in Columbiahighfan's college poll  
  22. Like
    Sharkbait got a reaction from BrowardHandicapper in Florida State 20 vs Miami 24 Final   
    I guess FSU will drop all the way down to #25 in Columbiahighfan's college poll  
  23. Like
    Sharkbait got a reaction from Title Town in Playoff point system has major flaws   
    Yeah so lets experiment with the lower classifications because they don't matter.  
  24. Like
    Sharkbait reacted to badbird in Playoff point system has major flaws   
    I can appreciate Beasley stepping up and doing something different.  There needed to be change.  The point system needs to be adjusted.  The 3 bonus points for teams making the playoffs is silly.   Because Leon or Gateway or any bad team now made the playoffs and Miami Norland didn't you get bonus points for playing Leon but not for playing Miami Norland.  More points need to be added for playing good teams or less points need to be given for beating bad teams.  A 1 point win over Mount Dora Christian should not be worth 53 points and a one point loss to IMG worth 33 points.  
  25. Like
    Sharkbait got a reaction from Joshua Wilson in Playoff point system has major flaws   
    The important thing to me is getting the teams in the playoffs that deserve to be there.  If a team wins their district they should be in but once you're in then it is about the best team moving forward.  If you have to play a team in the first round that you can't beat then you were not going to win that ring anyway.  For a team to win the championship they have to be an exceptional  team and usually catch a lucky break along the way.  But if you get in the playoffs you have a chance maybe you are the one that catches a lucky break.
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