LAZ

Here is a chart showing the 2019 weekly power rating performance of our state's FBS teams. What's interesting to note are the trend lines. While schools like Florida, USF and FIU remained static throughout the season, the others display "cross-over" points. For example, the data shows that even though UCF blew out FAU at the beginning of the year, if they were to play again at the end of the season, the game should be much, much closer with FAU possibly winning. The same is true for Miami and FSU. The reverse happens with Florida and Miami. It shows that despite their first game being  close, if the Gators and 'Canes played again at year's end, the Gators would have probably hammered them.      

Hey Peezy! Nah, just plain ol' Excel. I'm in the Geritol club, remember? I can't keep up with all you whippersnappers and your new technology. LOL
Actually, I have heard of it but I've never even seen it in action, let alone use it.
Happy New Year! You were missed at the state championships. 

I'll be going into greater detail on my site in a couple of weeks. But here is the championship data from 1963-2019 by County Size and by title appearances Public and Private. 

I'll be going into greater detail on my site in a couple of weeks. But here is the championship data from 1963-2019 by County Size and by title appearances Public and Private. 

Perhaps this is another way to get my message across. I've charted the MEDIAN final state rankings for teams in each classification over the past 5 seasons. This reflects the data along with a linear line which one would expect to see when we have 8 different classifications, assuming the reason for having so many is based on the theory that the more populated schools have an advantage over the less populated. The classifications to the left of the linear line are "over-performing and the classes to the right are under-performing.     

Actually only slightly.  A lot less than most people would imagine. It's not even worth charting. If we remove Madison County from 1A, the 5 year number drops from 110.11 to 109.69. And while Madison County is surely the most dominant team in 1A, the balance of the class is steady. Unlike 2A where the bottom half of the class is more on par with large school Freshman or JV teams. That's not a slight to Champagnat, University Chr, Victory Chr and some others who obviously have some pretty good programs, so please I mean no harm by that comment. But the fact still remains. The average 1A team (with or without Madison County) is still at least a touchdown better than the average 2A team. 
 

nice work Laz, hope all is well.

Done a lot of analysis on this one as well over the past 17 years. I'm absolutely positive if Pinkos, Massey, etc. were to perform the same exercise, their charts would look very similar.  
Class 5 Yr Avg 8A 127.80 6A 126.86 7A 126.77 5A 122.96 3A 122.30 4A 114.58 1A 110.11 2A 101.82                                      
 
 

Went there years ago.  No problem until this year.  I have a close friend who is an Army Vet and served our country in Viet Nam.  He is wheelchair bound.  There were no accommodation's for him to see the games.  None!  That issue needs to be addressed for next year.  

Careful Darter. Next thing you know, Edgewater will have played a "down" Aquinas team. Simply remind him that Edgewater made the Raiders appear to be not themselves. Also, it must be noted Aquinas beat De LaSalle earlier this year and beat them by 10....in California. Yesterday,  De LaSalle played National #1 St. John Bosco for the California State Title. Despite losing, De LaSalle scored more points than vs. Bosco than any team this year with the exception of Mater Dei. Just sayin'.   

Last night the Edgewater Eagles gave their all on the field and came up just short of beating nationally ranked, recruiting mill, St. Thomas Aquinas. Up in Georgia, Marietta upset that other Valdosta team to win their state title, too. As he has disparaged other teams on this board, including, among others Miami Northwestern, NB has spent late summer and fall doing the same to Edgewater, insisting they were, in his words: "Fool's Gold." What I would like to see him do, given the fact that Edgewater all but won last night's game, is justify his position on Edgewater.
IF he were a real man, he would fess up and admit he was wrong. But I doubt he is, so he will once again move the goal post and somehow insist that their performance against a team supposedly in contention for a mythical National Championship,  does not qualify them as a good team.
@nolebull813I await with bated breath your response to last night. I will add that crickets on your part will tell me as much as I need to know about you, as would you spinning some ridiculous justification for continuing to argue Edgewater is no good. 
I could go on, but you are not worth the time.  

Darter, MarkE, Myself and maybe the infamous Peezster from what I hear.

Darter, MarkE, Myself and maybe the infamous Peezster from what I hear.

Darter, MarkE, Myself and maybe the infamous Peezster from what I hear.

OK. I'm just looking for some feedback. Tell me to "hit the road" or whatever.  Here is a comparison of both college and our Fla. high school scoring margins and my opinion of game interest based on those margins. The college data reflects all 4189 FBS, FCS, D2, D3 and NAIA games in 2019, including interdivisional play (FBS vs FCS, etc.)
College 4189 Games             Score Margin My Interest Games Pct 1-7 pts Great Game 1188 28% 8-13 pts Good Game 525 13% 14-20 pts Somewhat 668 16% 21-23 pts Blah - So-So 248 6% 24 -31 pts Ugly 583 14% 32 - 45 pts Very Bad 658 16% 46+ pts Puke 319 8%
Florida HS       2636 games
      Score Margin My Interest Games Pct 1-7 pts Great Game 527 20% 8-13 pts Good Game 324 12% 14-20 pts Somewhat 378 14% 21-23 pts Blah - So-So 171 6% 24 -31 pts Ugly 383 15% 32 - 45 pts Very Bad 617 23% 46+ pts
Puke 236 9%       As you can see, college games decided by 20 points or less is 57% as compared to our schools 46%. This is a huge difference in competitiveness.                                                                

And they’re off!!! Can’t wait for the shenanigans. 

We can discuss the odds next week, LOL! See you in two.

I will give you 17.  Look forward to seeing you in Daytona..

Looking at the 2019 Playoff Field, here is a mathematical ranking (most to least) of the classes where the most upsets are likely to occur during the course of the tournament. 
Class 6A        Std Dev 8.78
Class 8A        Std Dev 9.16
Class 5A        Std Dev 9.72
Class 1A        Std Dev 11.46
Class 7A        Std Dev 11.69
Class 3A        Std Dev 14.90
Class 4A        Std Dev 15.01
Class 2A        Std Dev 15.82
It should also be noted that looking at the first round only, Class 1A may experience the most upsets. 

Looking at the 2019 Playoff Field, here is a mathematical ranking (most to least) of the classes where the most upsets are likely to occur during the course of the tournament. 
Class 6A        Std Dev 8.78
Class 8A        Std Dev 9.16
Class 5A        Std Dev 9.72
Class 1A        Std Dev 11.46
Class 7A        Std Dev 11.69
Class 3A        Std Dev 14.90
Class 4A        Std Dev 15.01
Class 2A        Std Dev 15.82
It should also be noted that looking at the first round only, Class 1A may experience the most upsets. 

I really like the RPI. It’s the best method the FHSSA has ever used to help determine the “strongest” teams within each classification. There will be detractors and whiners with every selection process (See At-Large teams in the NCAA basketball tournament). But the FHSAA is light years ahead of where they’ve been when it comes to creating a more competitive playoff field. The only other major change that would help ensure we have the absolute best state tournament, would be to shrink the number of classifications but we all know that might take some doing. So from a spectator’s perspective, Kudos FHSAA for taking this important leap. 
 

I really like the RPI. It’s the best method the FHSSA has ever used to help determine the “strongest” teams within each classification. There will be detractors and whiners with every selection process (See At-Large teams in the NCAA basketball tournament). But the FHSAA is light years ahead of where they’ve been when it comes to creating a more competitive playoff field. The only other major change that would help ensure we have the absolute best state tournament, would be to shrink the number of classifications but we all know that might take some doing. So from a spectator’s perspective, Kudos FHSAA for taking this important leap. 
 

I really like the RPI. It’s the best method the FHSSA has ever used to help determine the “strongest” teams within each classification. There will be detractors and whiners with every selection process (See At-Large teams in the NCAA basketball tournament). But the FHSAA is light years ahead of where they’ve been when it comes to creating a more competitive playoff field. The only other major change that would help ensure we have the absolute best state tournament, would be to shrink the number of classifications but we all know that might take some doing. So from a spectator’s perspective, Kudos FHSAA for taking this important leap. 
 

I really like the RPI. It’s the best method the FHSSA has ever used to help determine the “strongest” teams within each classification. There will be detractors and whiners with every selection process (See At-Large teams in the NCAA basketball tournament). But the FHSAA is light years ahead of where they’ve been when it comes to creating a more competitive playoff field. The only other major change that would help ensure we have the absolute best state tournament, would be to shrink the number of classifications but we all know that might take some doing. So from a spectator’s perspective, Kudos FHSAA for taking this important leap. 
 

Gotta love chains! I sent this to a die hard UCF fan last year after their loss to LSU. It shows how using the “chains” you can create a winning scenario and rarely lose an argument as long as both teams have at least one loss. 
This proves that using chains to find better teams, non scholarship Division 3 Alfred State Pioneers who won 1 game in 2018, could have beaten last year’s UCF squad.
III    Alfred St    beat    Anna Maria    30-28
III    Anna Maria    beat    Castleton    31-24
III    Castleton    beat    Fitchburg St    34-13
III    Fitchburg St    beat    MA Dartmouth    32-29
III    MA Dartmouth    beat    Plymouth St    21-16
III    Plymouth St    beat    Framingham St    29-28
III    Framingham St    beat    Endicott    34-13
III    Endicott    beat    Hobart & Smith    27-24
III    Hobart & Smith    beat    Shenandoah    56-48
III    Shenandoah    beat    NC Wesleyan    59-21
III    NC Wesleyan    beat    Thomas More    35-28
III    Thomas More    beat    WI Platteville    35-28
III    WI Platteville    beat    WI Stevens Pt    20-6
III    WI Stevens Pt    beat    WI Oshkosh    27-21
III    WI Oshkosh    beat    Lincoln MO    17-7
II    Lincoln MO    beat    Lane    10-7
II    Lane    beat    Miles    15-14
II    Miles    beat    Albany GA    50-23
II    Albany GA    beat    Catawba    35-21
II    Catawba    beat    Tusculum    55-37
II    Tusculum    beat    Carson-Newman    41-28
II    Carson-Newman    beat    Wingate    31-14
II    Wingate    beat    West Georgia    41-31
II    West Georgia    beat    West Florida    27-7
II    West Florida    beat    North Alabama    24-19
I - FCS    North Alabama    beat    Jackson St    24-7
I - FCS    Jackson St    beat    Florida A&M    18-16
I - FCS    Florida A&M    beat    NC A&T    22-21
I - FCS    NC A&T    beat    East Carolina    28-23
I - FBS    East Carolina    beat    North Carolina    41-19
I - FBS    North Carolina    beat    Pittsburgh    38-35
I - FBS    Pittsburgh    beat    Virginia    23-13
I - FBS    Virginia    beat    South Carolina    28-0
I - FBS    South Carolina    beat    Missouri    37-35
I - FBS    Missouri    beat    Florida    38-17
I - FBS    Florida    beat    LSU    27-19
I - FBS    LSU    beat    UCF    40-32