LAZ

Actually it is Jefferson County who comes in at 0.387. Followed by FAMU (0.435), Flanagan (0.493) and then Nease (0.519). 
Jupiter Christian is actually 0.602 over the past twenty seasons.
     

Here are the best programs to have not reached a state title game this century, sorted by their W-L Pct. vs. Florida Competition (2000-2019). Out of State contests are not included.  
School W L Pct Vero Beach 168 51 0.767 Jesuit (Tampa)  178 58 0.754 Hillsborough (Tampa) 160 63 0.717 Columbia (Lake City)  164 65 0.716 Fletcher (Neptune Beach) 159 66 0.707 Largo 159 66 0.707 Fort Myers  161 67 0.706 Charlotte (Punta Gorda)  161 69 0.700 Lafayette (Mayo) 151 66 0.696 Countryside (Clearwater)  149 66 0.693 Hardee (Wauchula) 153 68 0.692 Dunnellon 147 68 0.684 Dixie County (Cross City) 150 70 0.682 First Baptist (Naples) 77 36 0.681 First Academy (Orlando) 151 71 0.680 South Fort Myers 112 56 0.667 Park Vista (Lake Worth) 109 55 0.665 Calvary Christian (Fort Lauderdale) 104 53 0.662 Merritt Island  149 77 0.659 Lake Wales 147 77 0.656 Winter Park 145 78 0.650 Fleming Island (Orange Park) 120 65 0.649 Winter Haven  143 78 0.647 Plantation  140 77 0.645 Pace 139 78 0.641

On the flip side, here are the worst winning percentages by division from 2000-2019. Same rules apply.   NCAA D1 FBS (P5) CONF W L Pct               Kansas BIG12 78 162 0.325   Duke ACC 82 161 0.337   Vanderbilt SEC 87 155 0.360   Indiana BIG10 88 152 0.367   Illinois BIG10 91 151 0.376   Colorado PAC12 102 147 0.410   Iowa St BIG12 106 142 0.427   Syracuse ACC 104 139 0.428   Kentucky SEC 107 138 0.437   Rutgers BIG10 107 138 0.437               NCAA D1 FBS (G5) CONF W L Pct               New Mexico St IND 66 176 0.273   Eastern Michigan MAC 67 172 0.280   UNLV MWC 76 166 0.314   Army IND 80 162 0.331   UTEP CUSA 82 160 0.339   Buffalo MAC 83 158 0.344   Kent St MAC 83 155 0.349   Tulane AAC 86 156 0.355   Louisiana-Monroe SBC 85 153 0.357   Akron MAC 88 153 0.365               NCAA D1 FCS CONF W L Pct               VMI SoC 49 176 0.218   Mississippi Valley St SWAC 49 169 0.225   Valparaiso (IN) PL 60 162 0.270   Rhode Island CAA 63 163 0.279   Columbia (NY) IVY 56 144 0.280   Idaho BSC 68 170 0.286 Moved down from FBS to FCS 2018 St Francis (PA) NEC 63 154 0.290   Indiana St MVFC 67 161 0.294   Austin Peay (TN) OVC 68 159 0.300   Texas Southern SWAC 67 153 0.305               NCAA D2 CONF W L Pct               Minnesota-Crookston NSC 29 188 0.134   Savannah St (GA) SIAC 37 176 0.174 moved from D2 to FCS in 2001; moved back to D2 2019 Lock Haven (PA) PSAC 39 179 0.179   Lincoln (MO) MIAA 38 169 0.184   Livingstone (NC) CIAA 40 158 0.202 Moved up from NAIA to D2 in 2002. Pace (NY) NE-10 44 158 0.218   Kentucky Wesleyan GMAC 48 160 0.231 Moved down D2 to NAIA 2004; back up to D2 in 2006  New Mexico Highlands RMC 53 163 0.245   St Anselm (NH) NE-10 51 154 0.249   Clark Atlanta (GA) SIAC 50 150 0.250               NCAA D3 CONF W L Pct               Hiram (OH) NCAC 31 169 0.155   Iowa Wesleyan UMAC 38 169 0.184 Moved from NAIA to D3 in 2013 North Park (IL) CCIW 37 163 0.185   Wilmington (OH) OAC 40 160 0.200   Whittier (CA) SCIAC 37 144 0.204   Lawrence (WI) Midwest 42 156 0.212   Hamilton (NY) NESCAC 35 128 0.215   Kenyon (OH) NCAC 44 156 0.220   Lewis & Clark (OR) NWC 40 135 0.229   FDU-Florham (NJ) NJAC 46 154 0.230               NAIA CONF W L Pct               Culver-Stockton (MO) HAAC 48 168 0.222   Mayville St (ND) NSAA 46 157 0.227   Montana St-Northern FC 57 153 0.271   SW Assemblies of God (TX) SAC 62 138 0.310   Central Methodist (MO) HAAC 68 145 0.319   Dakota St (SD) NSAA 66 138 0.324   Union (KY) MSC 69 141 0.329   Trinity International (IL) MSFA 71 144 0.330   Panhandle St (OK) SAC 70 139 0.335 Moved from D2 to NAIA in 2017 St Mary (KS) KCAC 69 134 0.340  

Here is a chart showing the 2019 weekly power rating performance of our state's FBS teams. What's interesting to note are the trend lines. While schools like Florida, USF and FIU remained static throughout the season, the others display "cross-over" points. For example, the data shows that even though UCF blew out FAU at the beginning of the year, if they were to play again at the end of the season, the game should be much, much closer with FAU possibly winning. The same is true for Miami and FSU. The reverse happens with Florida and Miami. It shows that despite their first game being  close, if the Gators and 'Canes played again at year's end, the Gators would have probably hammered them.      

Here is a chart showing the 2019 weekly power rating performance of our state's FBS teams. What's interesting to note are the trend lines. While schools like Florida, USF and FIU remained static throughout the season, the others display "cross-over" points. For example, the data shows that even though UCF blew out FAU at the beginning of the year, if they were to play again at the end of the season, the game should be much, much closer with FAU possibly winning. The same is true for Miami and FSU. The reverse happens with Florida and Miami. It shows that despite their first game being  close, if the Gators and 'Canes played again at year's end, the Gators would have probably hammered them.      

Hey Peezy! Nah, just plain ol' Excel. I'm in the Geritol club, remember? I can't keep up with all you whippersnappers and your new technology. LOL
Actually, I have heard of it but I've never even seen it in action, let alone use it.
Happy New Year! You were missed at the state championships. 

I'll be going into greater detail on my site in a couple of weeks. But here is the championship data from 1963-2019 by County Size and by title appearances Public and Private. 

I'll be going into greater detail on my site in a couple of weeks. But here is the championship data from 1963-2019 by County Size and by title appearances Public and Private. 

Perhaps this is another way to get my message across. I've charted the MEDIAN final state rankings for teams in each classification over the past 5 seasons. This reflects the data along with a linear line which one would expect to see when we have 8 different classifications, assuming the reason for having so many is based on the theory that the more populated schools have an advantage over the less populated. The classifications to the left of the linear line are "over-performing and the classes to the right are under-performing.     

Actually only slightly.  A lot less than most people would imagine. It's not even worth charting. If we remove Madison County from 1A, the 5 year number drops from 110.11 to 109.69. And while Madison County is surely the most dominant team in 1A, the balance of the class is steady. Unlike 2A where the bottom half of the class is more on par with large school Freshman or JV teams. That's not a slight to Champagnat, University Chr, Victory Chr and some others who obviously have some pretty good programs, so please I mean no harm by that comment. But the fact still remains. The average 1A team (with or without Madison County) is still at least a touchdown better than the average 2A team. 
 

nice work Laz, hope all is well.

Done a lot of analysis on this one as well over the past 17 years. I'm absolutely positive if Pinkos, Massey, etc. were to perform the same exercise, their charts would look very similar.  
Class 5 Yr Avg 8A 127.80 6A 126.86 7A 126.77 5A 122.96 3A 122.30 4A 114.58 1A 110.11 2A 101.82                                      
 
 

Went there years ago.  No problem until this year.  I have a close friend who is an Army Vet and served our country in Viet Nam.  He is wheelchair bound.  There were no accommodation's for him to see the games.  None!  That issue needs to be addressed for next year.  

Careful Darter. Next thing you know, Edgewater will have played a "down" Aquinas team. Simply remind him that Edgewater made the Raiders appear to be not themselves. Also, it must be noted Aquinas beat De LaSalle earlier this year and beat them by 10....in California. Yesterday,  De LaSalle played National #1 St. John Bosco for the California State Title. Despite losing, De LaSalle scored more points than vs. Bosco than any team this year with the exception of Mater Dei. Just sayin'.   

Last night the Edgewater Eagles gave their all on the field and came up just short of beating nationally ranked, recruiting mill, St. Thomas Aquinas. Up in Georgia, Marietta upset that other Valdosta team to win their state title, too. As he has disparaged other teams on this board, including, among others Miami Northwestern, NB has spent late summer and fall doing the same to Edgewater, insisting they were, in his words: "Fool's Gold." What I would like to see him do, given the fact that Edgewater all but won last night's game, is justify his position on Edgewater.
IF he were a real man, he would fess up and admit he was wrong. But I doubt he is, so he will once again move the goal post and somehow insist that their performance against a team supposedly in contention for a mythical National Championship,  does not qualify them as a good team.
@nolebull813I await with bated breath your response to last night. I will add that crickets on your part will tell me as much as I need to know about you, as would you spinning some ridiculous justification for continuing to argue Edgewater is no good. 
I could go on, but you are not worth the time.  

Darter, MarkE, Myself and maybe the infamous Peezster from what I hear.

Darter, MarkE, Myself and maybe the infamous Peezster from what I hear.

Darter, MarkE, Myself and maybe the infamous Peezster from what I hear.

OK. I'm just looking for some feedback. Tell me to "hit the road" or whatever.  Here is a comparison of both college and our Fla. high school scoring margins and my opinion of game interest based on those margins. The college data reflects all 4189 FBS, FCS, D2, D3 and NAIA games in 2019, including interdivisional play (FBS vs FCS, etc.)
College 4189 Games             Score Margin My Interest Games Pct 1-7 pts Great Game 1188 28% 8-13 pts Good Game 525 13% 14-20 pts Somewhat 668 16% 21-23 pts Blah - So-So 248 6% 24 -31 pts Ugly 583 14% 32 - 45 pts Very Bad 658 16% 46+ pts Puke 319 8%
Florida HS       2636 games
      Score Margin My Interest Games Pct 1-7 pts Great Game 527 20% 8-13 pts Good Game 324 12% 14-20 pts Somewhat 378 14% 21-23 pts Blah - So-So 171 6% 24 -31 pts Ugly 383 15% 32 - 45 pts Very Bad 617 23% 46+ pts
Puke 236 9%       As you can see, college games decided by 20 points or less is 57% as compared to our schools 46%. This is a huge difference in competitiveness.                                                                

And they’re off!!! Can’t wait for the shenanigans. 

We can discuss the odds next week, LOL! See you in two.

I will give you 17.  Look forward to seeing you in Daytona..

Looking at the 2019 Playoff Field, here is a mathematical ranking (most to least) of the classes where the most upsets are likely to occur during the course of the tournament. 
Class 6A        Std Dev 8.78
Class 8A        Std Dev 9.16
Class 5A        Std Dev 9.72
Class 1A        Std Dev 11.46
Class 7A        Std Dev 11.69
Class 3A        Std Dev 14.90
Class 4A        Std Dev 15.01
Class 2A        Std Dev 15.82
It should also be noted that looking at the first round only, Class 1A may experience the most upsets. 

Looking at the 2019 Playoff Field, here is a mathematical ranking (most to least) of the classes where the most upsets are likely to occur during the course of the tournament. 
Class 6A        Std Dev 8.78
Class 8A        Std Dev 9.16
Class 5A        Std Dev 9.72
Class 1A        Std Dev 11.46
Class 7A        Std Dev 11.69
Class 3A        Std Dev 14.90
Class 4A        Std Dev 15.01
Class 2A        Std Dev 15.82
It should also be noted that looking at the first round only, Class 1A may experience the most upsets. 

I really like the RPI. It’s the best method the FHSSA has ever used to help determine the “strongest” teams within each classification. There will be detractors and whiners with every selection process (See At-Large teams in the NCAA basketball tournament). But the FHSAA is light years ahead of where they’ve been when it comes to creating a more competitive playoff field. The only other major change that would help ensure we have the absolute best state tournament, would be to shrink the number of classifications but we all know that might take some doing. So from a spectator’s perspective, Kudos FHSAA for taking this important leap.