Perspective

Nolebull, I was 'just kidding' about you being the coach at TOHO -- although since I posted, you have acknowledged that you  "might be in Kissimmee this Friday" and, if so, you're "gonna have to hit up the Osceola/Toho game," so now I'm not so sure.  (I'm at a loss what acronym/emoji/emoticon to put here to let you know that I don't really believe you are the coach, but that there is a certain amount of irony going on here). 
Admittedly, I have a somewhat different 'perspective' than you do when it comes to running up the score on an out-matched opponent.  If I remember correctly, you seem to be of the mindset that it's more insulting to an opponent to take your foot off the gas and that if a team is consistently getting blown out, that team should just give up the sport. 
I, on the other hand, believe that football karma is the ultimate bitch.  As such,and recognizing there are some exceptions to the rule, when you are the coach for a superior team playing against a clearly-outmatched opponent, it pays to show a certain degree of sportsmanship and allow the other team to maintain some semblance of their dignity.   The greater the talent differential, the more creative the sure-to-win coach has to be.   This is especially true when neither team has any control over the scheduling.  
Obviously, based on my recollection of your prior posts, I thought of you when I read Beek's accounts of the JV game and my post was simply my attempt to humorously connect your philosophy with that of the TOHO coach.  So, now that I made this much of an effort to explain (but not defend) myself, I'll ask you this question:  what do you think of Beek's account of the TOHO coach?  Assuming everything in Beek's post is true, are you OK with what the TOHO coach did? 
 

When did Nolebull become the head football coach at TOHO?   You know, the guy who said this a few weeks ago:  "I don’t have a problem winning like this. It just shows the losing team they don’t belong playing football and that’s ok." 

(JK, Nolebull)

Yeah, you'd have two teams losing in the opening round instead of one. 

Yeah, you'd have two teams losing in the opening round instead of one. 

They changed the rule at the April Board of Director's meeting.  The FHSAA Handbook may not have been updated.  The original article is on floridahsfootball.com and confirmed in the Board of Directors' meeting minutes.
 REGIONAL PLAYOFF RESEEDING TO OCCUR
 
The Board of Directors approved 16-0 a policy change that will now seed teams No. 1-No. 8 by the FHSAA Power Rankings that are generated by MaxPreps while only guaranteeing district champions an entry into the regional bracket, but not guaranteed a home game.
In the previous years, district champions have been seeded No. 1-No. 4 first while at-large teams were seeded No. 5-No. 8. In this situation, a district champion would have been guaranteed a home game in at least the first round of the playoffs.
However, the Operations Committee on Sunday modified the language slightly to read that while the teams will be seeded by the FHSAA Power Rankings first, if a district champion were to go up against an at-large team in the first round of the playoffs, they would be guaranteed to host regardless of their seed number.
As for two district champions meeting in the first round? The higher seeded district champion would host the first-round game under that caveat while if an at-large team faces another at-large team in the first round, the higher-seeded team of the two at-large teams would host.
After the first round, the higher seed will host regardless of if they are a district champion or not.

Not me.  District champs deserve to host the first game.  I'm even more convinced of that opinion now that I'm seeing the FHSAA power rankings.  

Dillard seconds the motion.   

Not trying to clog up the forum with big attachments, but 4S below was my first attempt.  So really just 5 more classifications to go, although I'm getting tired of looking at my Rand-McNally Road Atlas and MapQuest.  But I learned that Lake Placid is in Florida, when I thought all this time it was in New York, so I'm learning a lot about Florida geography.  I'll leave computer models to the mathematicians and statisticians. 

@Perspective, as promised, here are the current 66 teams in 2S arranged into 8 districts. This actually works better than I imagined. The longest drives are in the Panhandle, but that is already the case for teams there. All the districts are reasonably compact (except there is no good answer for Key West). This actually creates some good local rivalries, and a lot of the district games created are already being played as non-district games. Problem solved.  Don’t have to worry if it’s better to lose to a 7-3 team or beat a 3-7 team, just beat the teams in your district.  And I won’t even charge the FHSAA for my product. 

 
 

I'll ask the question another way:  is there anyone on this board that thinks Hawthorne would stay within 14 points of Northwestern in a neutral field game?   If not, how can the FHSAA defend a ranking system that has Hawthorne ranked ahead of Northwestern?  Obviously those two teams are not in the same classification, so we don't have to worry about one of those teams making the playoffs at the expense of the other.  But my point is this:   if the system is that flawed, there will be some serious issues when it comes time to select the four non-district winners that make the playoffs in each region.  

Makes all the sense in the world Dr.D, at least with the larger metro areas.   How would it work for the smaller suburban areas?  I'd like to see a similar set-up for, say, 2S.  

I've only put 4M and 4S on paper, but at first glance it looks workable in 2S.  I'm not as familiar with some of the smaller locales in central and southern Florida, so it will take some time to get something together (and I'm not getting paid to do the FHSAA's job, although I would settle for 10% of the MaxPreps $$$ ).  I promise I'll get back to you with an honest assessment of whether it would work at this level or not.  

The Florida rankings could be weighing out of state games differently.  I think I read they don't use previous years results as much as the national ratings.  If the teams opponents and opponents of opponents have little crossover play, their ratings aren't as comparable as they seem.
 
For what it's worth, I think they choose not to include margin of victory to stop coaches from running up the score, which they would be obligated to do.  Take the Chaminade vs Somerset Academy Key game.  If margin of victory is a factor and there is no cap, they would have scored well over 100.  Chaminade won 90-0 and while I didn't watch the game, I am sure they weren't actively trying to run up the score, but rather a national powerhouse was forced to play a startup football team in its second season that has never won a game.  Rating teams without factoring in the score actually works well, but it requires more sophisticated matchmaking than the current district/region/class system.  Matchmaking forces teams of similar scores to play each other with the winners score improving and the losers score falling.  After a few weeks teams converge around their rating (depending on the rating system, there is also a variance rating, which is helpful for matchmaking).  Pairing teams against each other by school population is nonsense in 2022.
 
Anyway, I updated my spreadsheet of weekly scores.  I added a column for risers and fallers in October and a column measuring the difference between a teams rating and their opponent rating.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19-MEgcJCmU7gkFDTGlT3qS_7WCDCcFHjzLC1qMicz90/edit?usp=sharing
If you notice any errors, let me know.
It's also possible to scrape all the results off of maxpreps and check the weekly ratings against the actual game outcomes.  It should get more accurate each week.  More work than I want to do right now though.

Interestingly, when MaxPreps uses their own formula, Northwestern is ranked 14 and Hawthorne is ranked 81. 
Seriously, how can there be that much difference between the two rankings?  Is this all because the FHSAA version doesn't include point differential in the formula?

So, just curious:  by how many points would #27 Hawthorne be favored over #31 Northwestern (neutral site, of course)? 

I guess the real heyday was 2006 to 2011, but PHS was still “very good” until 2018. 
 
2011- Plant 54 Boone 20
Plant 49 dr p 14
2012- Plant 48 Orlando Freedom 31
Dr P 24 Plant 7
2013- Plant 42 Boone 3
Plant 24 Dr P 23
rd 4 Apopka 45 Plant 29
2014 Plant 29 Boone 7
Dr P 24 Plant 10
2015- 7a dnp Orlando area schools
2016- Plant 35 Viera 7 in 3rd rd
2017- Plant 43 East River 0
Plant 22 Viera 18
2018- Plant 39 Viera 18
 

Um, not entirely true -- depending, I guess, on when you start and stop the "Plant heyday".   Personally, I think the heyday continued up until 2018, but certainly until 2016 when they made it to the state finals.  However, after winning the state championship in 2011, Plant proceeded to lose playoff games to Dr. Phillips (2012), Apopka (2013) and Dr. Phillips again (2014).   Of course, it didn't help that Plant was one of the smallest schools in 8A, often playing schools with double their student population. 
That said, you are certainly correct when you say that times have changed. 

Looks like Plant's region will include the likes of Ocoee, East Lake, West Orange, Sumner, Durant, Olympia, Steinbrenner, Alonso (who Plant plays this Friday for the District title) and Dr. Phillips.  Those teams, along with Plant, are currently the top 10 teams out of 4M Region 2 (Districts 5, 6,7 and 8).   So, two of those teams won't make it.   Newsome, Riverview and PHU are currently on the outside looking in and will need a lot of help to crack the top 8. 
Region 1 has Seminole, Apopka and Winter Park, all of whom are ranked higher than Ocoee, the top ranked team in Region 2. 

Interestingly, when MaxPreps uses their own formula, Northwestern is ranked 14 and Hawthorne is ranked 81. 
Seriously, how can there be that much difference between the two rankings?  Is this all because the FHSAA version doesn't include point differential in the formula?

So, just curious:  by how many points would #27 Hawthorne be favored over #31 Northwestern (neutral site, of course)? 

Madison County.  3-0. 
(Posted solely in honor of Jesse). 

For what it's worth, the most recent FHSAA power rankings have Dillard ranked 21 overall and 4th in Class 3M.  
Yeah, Dillard is 5-3, but look who they played tho.    (There, now someone has said it). 

Looks like Plant's region will include the likes of Ocoee, East Lake, West Orange, Sumner, Durant, Olympia, Steinbrenner, Alonso (who Plant plays this Friday for the District title) and Dr. Phillips.  Those teams, along with Plant, are currently the top 10 teams out of 4M Region 2 (Districts 5, 6,7 and 8).   So, two of those teams won't make it.   Newsome, Riverview and PHU are currently on the outside looking in and will need a lot of help to crack the top 8. 
Region 1 has Seminole, Apopka and Winter Park, all of whom are ranked higher than Ocoee, the top ranked team in Region 2. 

Madison County.  3-0. 
(Posted solely in honor of Jesse). 

LMAO LOL good 1 hahahahahahaha. Welp one person has now said it lol hahahahaha.