Wellington

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Jesse, one game does not define an entire season. I've been reading your posts and I understand why you keep pushing this narrative of "Madison beat FSU High which beat Trinity Christian which beat American Heritage which beat Chaminade"...which means that if the stars were aligned perfectly then Madison would beat Chaminade. I'm not saying it's impossible...just highly unlikely. Just like the the Chaminade/Berkeley game. Tons of respect for Berkeley, but they were outclassed and were not going to win that game. Same goes for Madison/Chaminade, Madison/Venice, etc. And considering that Madison barely got past Hawthorne I would expect a little humility on your part rather than casting Madison in with the elite teams in Florida. But maybe it's just me.

You should absolutely feel free to express your views and I apologize if I was harsh. Regarding Cocoa, Gibbons and Jesuit: I excluded those 3 teams based on their performance in the playoffs, specifically the championship game. I'm sure I don't need to explain why Jesuit limping to the finish line against nationally unranked Pine Forest does not inspire confidence. And the Cocoa/Gibbons game - which I gladly paid the $9.99 expecting to see the game of the weekend - was such a disappointment. Closely contested? Yes. Played at a high level? Not even close. Thought I was watching a JV game. Both of those teams had close games with Venice earlier in the season. But I don't think either of them could stay within 2 touchdowns if they played Venice now. Just my opinion. That's why I think there are 4 elite FL teams right now: Miami Central, Aquinas, Chaminade, Venice.

Ray, did you and I watch the same game? You said that one call was a "back breaker". As if that blown call made the difference in the game. Apopka was not going to win this game. Was their offense ever in the red zone? How many times did their offense even cross the 50 yard line? The only reason Apopka got 7 points is because Venice handed them an early Christmas present on a special teams blunder at their own 10 yard line. Venice won by 4 touchdowns and very nearly started running the clock. Why are we discussing this?!

Jesse, did you actually watch the Venice/Apopka game? Because that game wasn't as close as the 35-7 score. And Apopka is the team that just beat Treasure Coast 21-0. Right now I think there are probably only 3 teams in Florida that can hang with Venice: Miami Central, Chaminade, and Aquinas. No offense, but your Madison County is nowhere near ready for that type of challenge.

Temerity is the right word. Exactly what I was thinking at the time. No way I give my sophomore QB the ball after already throwing 4 interceptions. Apparently the coach has a lot more faith in that kid than I had at that point in the game. The guy doing color commentary for Spectrum seemed to think Jesuit was going to run down the clock and kick a field goal to win it...which made sense...but is always risky in high school football...but letting that kid throw the ball was even riskier! Geez. Glad I wasn't really rooting for Jesuit or I probably would have had a stroke. Lol.

Trinity deserves a lot of respect for playing such a tough schedule. I'm new to Florida. Why did they move from 3A to 2A? Is it based on enrollment? Will they be in 2A again next year?

I would say you are half correct. It is true that TCA dominated the game. Unfortunately they did not dominate the scoreboard...and that is the only part of the game that matters. To clarify: with 5 minutes left in the 4th quarter the score was 27-15 and Champagnat had the ball at midfield. The game was not over. Yes, the game should have been over. It should have been over before the 4th quarter. So many missed opportunities by TCA. On the one hand I can totally see how TCA was able to beat American Heritage earlier this year by 13 points. But on the other hand I can totally see how they barely managed to escape defeat last week against a sub-par Orlando Christian. They seem to play to the level of their opposition. I picked them to win, I'm happy for them, I'm not trying to rain on anyone's parade. But that's how I see it.

16 Miami Central (approx 99.99% chance of winning..LOL) 15 Chaminade-Madonna (85% chance of winning) 14 Jesuit (80%) 13 St. Thomas Aquinas (75%) 12 Venice (65%) 11 Trinity Christian Academy (51%) 10 Hawthorne (50.1%) 9 Cocoa (50.01%)

Was leaning towards Mad Co in this game because I'm not impressed by Hawthorne's undefeated record. And Mad Co has only given up 6 points in the playoffs which is impressive...BUT...they had two losses earlier in the year against teams they probably should have beaten. Any arguments in favor of Mad Co over Hawthorne?

So I was leaning towards Cocoa in this game until I saw that Cocoa has 1 point victories over both Vero Beach and Osceola and a 4 point victory over Dr. Phillips. I realize these games were early in the season, but it doesn't inspire a lot of confidence against a team like Gibbons. Any thoughts?

Disregard my earlier question. But I have a different question. For those of you who already submitted picks this week...am I correct that your #1 pick is actually worth 9 points and your #8 pick is worth 16 points according to the instructions of the game? Thanks for clarifying.

Question: would it be unethical to give advice to another person in the contest? If so, no problem. Just tell me and I'll shut up.

I'm surprised how many of you are picking Miami Northwestern over Jesuit. Northwestern lost to Miami Central 49-6 a little over a month ago. I'm not saying they aren't a good team, but it doesn't bode well for their chances.

16 Hawthorne 15 Miami Central 14 Chaminade-Madonna 13 Berkeley Prep 12 Cardinal Gibbons 11 Venice 10 Merritt Island 9 Cocoa 8 Madison County 7 St. Thomas Aquinas 6 Trinity Christian Academy 5 Jesuit 4 Champagnat Catholic 3 Lake Gibson 2 Treasure Coast 1 Jones Bonus: Clearwater Academy

16 Cocoa 15 Jesuit 14 St. Thomas Aquinas 13 Orlando Christian Prep 12 Berkeley Prep 11 Lake Gibson 10 Champagnat Catholic 9 Baker 8 Hawthorne 7 Benjamin School 6 Gulliver Prep 5 Seminole 4 Pine Forest 3 Sebring 2 Columbus 1 Wakulla

16 Chaminade-Madonna 15 Benjamin School 14 Jones 13 Pahokee 12 Edgewater 11 Miami Central 10 Dillard 9 Madison County 8 Western 7 South Walton 6 Raines 5 John Carroll 4 Northwestern 3 Zephyrhills Christian 2 Lemon Bay 1 Palm Beach Central BONUS: Lake Highland Prep

Again, I do not claim to be an expert on FL rankings. But a quick look at RPI reveals a flaw in their algorithm. Too much value is placed on record. In 7A, undefeated Tampa Bay Tech is ranked #1...ahead of 4 nationally-ranked teams (Aquinas, Bucholz, Edgewater and Dillard). Unbeaten does not mean unbeatable. (Mater Dei in CA being a possible exception). In the case of Tampa Bay Tech...it’s more likely that they haven’t lost yet. Here are some other disparities: 6A: I’ve already mentioned undefeated Dunbar having the 5th highest RPI in the state...and then losing badly in Round 1. And there are 3 more undefeated teams -- Vanguard, Naples, Auburndale -- all with a lower strength-of-schedule and a higher RPI than nationally-ranked Jones and Northwestern. 5A: One-loss Merritt Island ranked #2...ahead of Miami Central and American Heritage 4A: undefeated Villages Charter ranked higher than Cardinal Gibbons and Bolles 3A: One-loss Florida Christian ranked higher than FSU High and Clearwater Central 2A: undefeated Avante Garde ranked higher than Trinity Christian and Champagnat Catholic Personally, I don’t care about a team’s record. I care about the opposition they’ve faced. Having said that...if Naples beats Northwestern this weekend then I may have to revise my own algorithm. Lol.

Of the 100 or so games played last night it would appear that there were 28 upsets...based on FHSAA seeding (a lower seed beating a higher seed). But if we use a more reliable measurement...MaxPreps' rating...we see that there were only about 12 upsets. I'm new to Florida, so maybe someone can justify the use of FHSAA data? Including RPI? Dunbar losing decisively looks especially bad for the FHSAA...who have them ranked #5 in the entire state (ahead of Aquinas, Jesuit, Venice, Gibbons, Central, etc.) One more fun fact before I go: Northwestern is ranked #85 in the state (using RPI) but they are ranked #78 in the entire country by MaxPreps. If you can make sense of that then you are smarter than me. Lol.

16 Dillard 15 Apopka 14 Jones 13 Riverside 12 Holmes County 11 Baker County 10 Bishop Verot 9 Lakeland 8 Foundation Academy 7 Chamberlain 6 Holy Trinity 5 Liberty County 4 Gadsden County 3 American Heritage 2 Carrollwood Day 1 Newsome BONUS: St. Edward’s