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Columbia vs Suwannee rivalry returning


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22 minutes ago, nolebull813 said:

@ColumbiaHighFan2017class who is Columbia’s leading returning rusher and top 2 receivers? 
 

The guys coming back. What was their production? 

 

15 minutes ago, nolebull813 said:

@ColumbiaHighFan2017class and can you explain the breakdown that made you put 6-5 Columbia in tier 1 and 11-3 Baker County in tier 2 just in the North Central region? 

@ColumbiaHighFan2017class

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2 minutes ago, nolebull813 said:

@ColumbiaHighFan2017class and can you explain the breakdown that made you put 6-5 Columbia in tier 1 and 11-3 Baker County in tier 2 just in the North Central region? 

Your biggest flaw of the entire statement is thinking that last seasons record plays a huge factor in how I rank teams 

 

It doesn't, in the case of tier 1 vs tier 2 the cutoff was teams I listed in the top 50 grade from that region which only Columbia and Buchholz were listed as, I have Baker County as a bubble top 50 and therefore I listed them as tier 2 

 

With Columbia playing 2 teams inside the top 50 with Buchholz and TCA and another bubble one in Madison County I know that one way or the other the rankings will correct themselves, while my rankings being right in preseason is cool I always want it set up where it can easily adjust as the season progresses as teams ranked lower can beat teams ranked higher to move up or teams unranked can beat teams who are ranked and jump into the rankings 

 

That system keeps it from having undefeated teams with weak schedules from jumping into it like a Keystone Heights or a Maclay or a St Joseph

 

Baker County currently has no games against any team currently in a top 50 grade so if I rank them immediately and they end up winning a bunch of close games against teams ranked below them they end up climbing too high because of teams above them losing which has messed up my rankings in the past since until last year teams wouldn't drop coming off a win but I still won't drop a team out of the top 50 on a win 

 

For Baker County to climb into the top 50 they either need to win decisively in their schedule or they will need to have teams on their schedule get some ranked wins to boost their grade and Baker County as a result 

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14 minutes ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

If I'm healthy when the game happens I will be 

It means as long as I'm not sick like I was when the Raines game happened last year where I thought my throat was gonna close up

@nolebull813

 

That was probably the first time I can remember missing a game because of being sick, normally I only miss games because I can't find a ride to it or I have a prior commitment

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4 minutes ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

Your biggest flaw of the entire statement is thinking that last seasons record plays a huge factor in how I rank teams 

 

It doesn't, in the case of tier 1 vs tier 2 the cutoff was teams I listed in the top 50 grade from that region which only Columbia and Buchholz were listed as, I have Baker County as a bubble top 50 and therefore I listed them as tier 2 

 

With Columbia playing 2 teams inside the top 50 with Buchholz and TCA and another bubble one in Madison County I know that one way or the other the rankings will correct themselves, while my rankings being right in preseason is cool I always want it set up where it can easily adjust as the season progresses as teams ranked lower can beat teams ranked higher to move up or teams unranked can beat teams who are ranked and jump into the rankings 

 

That system keeps it from having undefeated teams with weak schedules from jumping into it like a Keystone Heights or a Maclay or a St Joseph

 

Baker County currently has no games against any team currently in a top 50 grade so if I rank them immediately and they end up winning a bunch of close games against teams ranked below them they end up climbing too high because of teams above them losing which has messed up my rankings in the past since until last year teams wouldn't drop coming off a win but I still won't drop a team out of the top 50 on a win 

 

For Baker County to climb into the top 50 they either need to win decisively in their schedule or they will need to have teams on their schedule get some ranked wins to boost their grade and Baker County as a result 

What the hell does a teams schedule have to do with identifying how good a team is before the season starts? 

You just said you think Baker County is tier 2 not because of coaching, personnel etc but because they don’t play tough teams months in the future

That is some weird twisted shit. International School of Broward must have been the national champs in the preseason huh? 

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2 minutes ago, nolebull813 said:

What the hell does a teams schedule have to do with identifying how good a team is before the season starts? 

You just said you think Baker County is tier 2 not because of coaching, personnel etc but because they don’t play tough teams months in the future

That is some weird twisted shit. International School of Broward must have been the national champs in the preseason huh? 

No what it means is if I end up over ranking them it becomes a mistake my rankings won't be able to fix because I would need them to lose to correct it 

 

Because I'm not completely sold on them as it is I'm going to wait a few weeks and see how they play before I jump into ranking them, I personally think Baker County is usually a bubble top 50 team anyway and most people are looking at one half a game against Central LAST YEAR to justify them being much higher than they really are 

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1 minute ago, nolebull813 said:

We had 2 RBs who got the primary of the carries last year 

 

One graduated and one returns, Tony Fulton looks like a solid RB for what we need him for, the issue he had is our OL last year was very much sub average with run blocking and left him unable to get some momentum built up for much of the season to get running

 

Marcus Peterson graduating is a significant weapon lost to graduation but Tray Tolliver if he can come back healthy is one of the fastest WRs I've seen in person and probably the fastest I've seen at Columbia since 2015, he's also a 3* who now has one of the best QBs in North Florida throwing to him, that could end up being another Jordan Smith to Marquez Bell type connection which Columbia really hasn't had the last 2 seasons 

 

I've been trying to find out more about the other WRs, I know I saw we have a 6'4 freshman at WR but I want to see him in action in a game before I go into more detail but the stuff I've seen from practice highlights look good so far, if he can do it in a game I see him having a early impact at Columbia

 

The defense though was the biggest reason I have confidence in this Columbia team which as I already have explained is led by 4* LB/S Jaden Robinson and 4* CB Amare Ferrell who both play like game changers as well as rising junior Jerome Carter II who already has an Iowa State offer (his dad Jerome Carter was a 5* coming out of high school and signed with FSU) 

 

The defense looked very good when I saw them against Bartram Trail, I've never seen the defense look that good so early in the off-season, normally they don't look like that until a few weeks into the season 

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17 minutes ago, nolebull813 said:

What the hell does a teams schedule have to do with identifying how good a team is before the season starts? 

You just said you think Baker County is tier 2 not because of coaching, personnel etc but because they don’t play tough teams months in the future

That is some weird twisted shit. International School of Broward must have been the national champs in the preseason huh? 

You act like that's crazy yet most polls you reference all the time use some form of SOS in their algorithm and most human pollsters even if they don't admit it consider a teams schedule when ranking them 

 

It doesn't make or break them making the rankings, however if I'm on the fence and the schedule isn't going to provide a correctable opportunity than I tend to play it safe and leave a team on the bubble 

 

However it could be a case like Lakeland where they are clearly talent wise way beyond a bubble and I will rank them regardless even though I won't have much opportunity to move them around though they do have a few opportunities of teams ranked if I remember their schedule correctly so it's still more flexibility than Baker County gives me 

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1 hour ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

No what it means is if I end up over ranking them it becomes a mistake my rankings won't be able to fix because I would need them to lose to correct it

Don't take offense, ColumbiaFan, but I think this is a fatal flaw in all pre-season rankings. 

Personally, I don't think anyone should start ranking teams until at least week 4 or 5 of the season.   But, I get that news outlets, websites and high school football fans in Lake City like to give people something to talk about during the dog days of the summer.  But the flaw comes in when pollsters take the position that they can't drop a team (or, to use your words, "fix" it) unless and until they lose. 

Why not?!?    If a team gets ranked too high in the preseason because of their tradition, because the person putting out the poll hasn't done their homework, because players turn out not to be as good as expected, because the team doesn't just gel, or for any other reason, that team should drop in the polls . . .  even if they have managed to win a bunch of close games against inferior teams.    Just drop 'em like a hot potato.  

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2 minutes ago, Perspective said:

Don't take offense, ColumbiaFan, but I think this is a fatal flaw in all pre-season rankings. 

Personally, I don't think anyone should start ranking teams until at least week 4 or 5 of the season.   But, I get that news outlets, websites and high school football fans in Lake City like to give people something to talk about during the dog days of the summer.  But the flaw comes in when pollsters take the position that they can't drop a team (or, to use your words, "fix" it) unless and until they lose. 

Why not?!?    If a team gets ranked too high in the preseason because of their tradition, because the person putting out the poll hasn't done their homework, because players turn out not to be as good as expected, because the team doesn't just gel, or for any other reason, that team should drop in the polls . . .  even if they have managed to win a bunch of close games against inferior teams.    Just drop 'em like a hot potato.  

For the same reason there are many other unwritten rules in sports and the fact that seemingly only computer polls will drop teams off a win and while I did start dropping teams a few slots if they struggle with lower ranked teams I don't drop them out of the poll until they lose 

 

What I've realized over the last few years of doing rankings is it's a lot easier to boost a team into a rankings when they win than to drop a team when they win 

 

The way I rank teams and the biggest flaw of it is that it really needs teams to play other ranked teams or unranked teams to play ranked teams for it to follow the method that gives fluid results by mid season

 

I could definitely wait until week 5 but unless I use the preseason poll as a start point then my rankings tend to be erratic and all over the place which is why when I did wait until a few weeks into the season (COVID year) the rankings were a train wreck

 

Last year I ranked all 8 state champs at #1 in their class during the preseason which was cool but even so that isn't necessary for the rankings to work over the course of the season, all I need for it to work over the course of the season is for there to be enough results to allow the rankings to adjust to itself

 

My rankings follow a similar approach to MaxPreps in that wins over teams ranked higher will boost a team more than a similar ranked win or lower ranked win and losing to a highly ranked team won't drop a team as far as losing to a team far lower than them

 

By doing this it allows teams that may have a wider range of where they can end up as a team early on to eventually level out to their correct positioning by mid to late season, it also keeps teams that play all unranked opponents like a Lake Wales or a Keystone Heights from ending up in the top 15 just because they go 10-0 even without facing a single top 50 or top 100 team 

 

 

Plus I think with all due respect that I see waiting until mid season to release any form of ranking is like playing Monday night QB, it's not hard to rank with 5 weeks of results in the back pocket but doing so and acting like my rankings are better at first glance than others who took some blind leaps of faith in the preseason feels a bit disrespectful of their work so I am more willing to have my misses because at least I feel proud of doing my best attempt to get as many teams ranked correctly in the preseason 

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15 minutes ago, Perspective said:

Don't take offense, ColumbiaFan, but I think this is a fatal flaw in all pre-season rankings. 

Personally, I don't think anyone should start ranking teams until at least week 4 or 5 of the season.   But, I get that news outlets, websites and high school football fans in Lake City like to give people something to talk about during the dog days of the summer.  But the flaw comes in when pollsters take the position that they can't drop a team (or, to use your words, "fix" it) unless and until they lose. 

Why not?!?    If a team gets ranked too high in the preseason because of their tradition, because the person putting out the poll hasn't done their homework, because players turn out not to be as good as expected, because the team doesn't just gel, or for any other reason, that team should drop in the polls . . .  even if they have managed to win a bunch of close games against inferior teams.    Just drop 'em like a hot potato.  

I've seen some polls also that have dropped teams off a win and I see it all the time that they get a lot of flack for it because most say "why did a team that won fall out of the top 10?!!" 

 

Most don't consider "you all barely beat an unranked team" as a valid excuse

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4 minutes ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

I've seen some polls also that have dropped teams off a win and I see it all the time that they get a lot of flack for it because most say "why did a team that won fall out of the top 10?!!" 

 

Most don't consider "you all barely beat an unranked team" as a valid excuse

I hear you.   But, in order to move a team up, a team above them has to lose.  In a college season, that tends to works itself out over the course of a long season.   This happens to a lesser extent in high school.  But, at the end of the day, it really doesn't matter in high school because every state I know of has some sort of playoff system to determine the state/class champ.   Where it really becomes a problem is with national polls . . .  especially when multiple teams all end the season undefeated.   In most of those cases, where you start is where you end.  If IMG starts out ranked above Mater Dei in the preseason, and both teams go undefeated, chances are IMG is going to be ranked higher than MD at the end of the year.  Just because people don't like to adjust a team downward until they lose.  

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1 hour ago, Perspective said:

I hear you.   But, in order to move a team up, a team above them has to lose.  In a college season, that tends to works itself out over the course of a long season.   This happens to a lesser extent in high school.  But, at the end of the day, it really doesn't matter in high school because every state I know of has some sort of playoff system to determine the state/class champ.   Where it really becomes a problem is with national polls . . .  especially when multiple teams all end the season undefeated.   In most of those cases, where you start is where you end.  If IMG starts out ranked above Mater Dei in the preseason, and both teams go undefeated, chances are IMG is going to be ranked higher than MD at the end of the year.  Just because people don't like to adjust a team downward until they lose.  

Which is why I have tended to avoid national rankings myself other than a few spitball attempts because at least in state rankings it will work itself out in the playoffs but national rankings with 50 states and several different independents with different rules it's nearly impossible to run a coherent system as a human poll for those rankings 

 

Kudos to anyone who has the ability to pull off a respectable human poll on the national level 

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I see Suwannee coaches got something to say about Columbia now hmm?

 

How about I respond, for a school that got busted during a state championship year for ineligible players you all are one to talk about us getting a few transfers

 

How about we talk about how this game was brought back as a kickoff classic after Columbia went 5-6 and 6-5 the last 2 seasons but before we went 5-6 in 2020 we actually offered you all a chance to play us and you declined but now that you looked at the last two years you think you can sneak a win in, you see this is your problem as a program. You all wait until you think you can get a win to step up against bigger competition but when you realize you can't handle it you run away, you ran from Hawthorne and Columbia and now you all think because we were down the last two years you could sneak a win but now you realize that's backfiring so you want to discredit our talent? Maybe if Suwannee wasn't afraid that a loss to Columbia would keep causing middle school kids to enroll at Columbia as freshman because we have more success at getting kids to playing college football and if you all would stop living off your championship run in the JV leagues back in the late 80s maybe you all wouldn't be a 1 and done playoff team for the majority of the last decade 

 

The difference between Columbia and Suwannee is even when Columbia is supposed to be down, Columbia hasn't dodged playing teams like Madison County or TCA, you all won't play TCA much less compete with them. Last time Suwannee had to play TCA, the conquerors ran you all off the field like a JV team in the opening round of the playoffs 

 

But feel free to come on and talk all you want because come August 19th, your time to talk is over and I don't care if it's a KOC because I'm gonna enjoy watching Columbia kick your all's ass one more time

 

(Mic drop)

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  • 3 weeks later...
On 7/12/2022 at 7:40 PM, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

I see Suwannee coaches got something to say about Columbia now hmm?

 

How about I respond, for a school that got busted during a state championship year for ineligible players you all are one to talk about us getting a few transfers

 

How about we talk about how this game was brought back as a kickoff classic after Columbia went 5-6 and 6-5 the last 2 seasons but before we went 5-6 in 2020 we actually offered you all a chance to play us and you declined but now that you looked at the last two years you think you can sneak a win in, you see this is your problem as a program. You all wait until you think you can get a win to step up against bigger competition but when you realize you can't handle it you run away, you ran from Hawthorne and Columbia and now you all think because we were down the last two years you could sneak a win but now you realize that's backfiring so you want to discredit our talent? Maybe if Suwannee wasn't afraid that a loss to Columbia would keep causing middle school kids to enroll at Columbia as freshman because we have more success at getting kids to playing college football and if you all would stop living off your championship run in the JV leagues back in the late 80s maybe you all wouldn't be a 1 and done playoff team for the majority of the last decade 

 

The difference between Columbia and Suwannee is even when Columbia is supposed to be down, Columbia hasn't dodged playing teams like Madison County or TCA, you all won't play TCA much less compete with them. Last time Suwannee had to play TCA, the conquerors ran you all off the field like a JV team in the opening round of the playoffs 

 

But feel free to come on and talk all you want because come August 19th, your time to talk is over and I don't care if it's a KOC because I'm gonna enjoy watching Columbia kick your all's ass one more time

 

(Mic drop)

Who are you talking to? Specifically 

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On 7/29/2022 at 10:33 AM, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

The Suwannee coach that wanted to accuse Columbia of recruiting

What Suwannee coach and is there a link to him saying it? If it was just in passing who told you he said it? How credible is that person? These are basic questions to avoid fake news 

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And if you accuse someone of recruiting, I’m assuming you would post the proof of it. Why would you call it out and not at least benefit from the info? Why would you just do it to piss someone off? Wouldn’t the Suwannee coach who has the goods feel compelled to give this info to the FHSAA especially if he is being hit by it? 
 

recruiting can have real world consequences. What if you lose kids to someone recruiting and you have a bad year and get fired? That’s your livelihood. I don’t think a coach would call it out without evidence 

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3 minutes ago, nolebull813 said:

And if you accuse someone of recruiting, I’m assuming you would post the proof of it. Why would you call it out and not at least benefit from the info? Why would you just do it to piss someone off? Wouldn’t the Suwannee coach who has the goods feel compelled to give this info to the FHSAA especially if he is being hit by it? 
 

recruiting can have real world consequences. What if you lose kids to someone recruiting and you have a bad year and get fired? That’s your livelihood. I don’t think a coach would call it out without evidence 

The benefit is so they can downplay when Columbia blows them out and make it look like we only beat them by cheating even though Columbia in the entire FHSAA playoff era has never been busted for playing ineligible players 

 

They can't say the same over at Suwannee

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