New FHSAA rankings out

[Perspective]

Has anyone been tracking the weekly rankings enough to know how much teams rise and drop (in terms of the raw power ranking number or the placement within their region)?   Just curious how many of the "bubble teams" currently sitting in the 9 or 10 spot have any chance of bumping out the current number 8 team. 

[DisabledAccount]

1 minute ago, Perspective said:

Has anyone been tracking the weekly rankings enough to know how much teams rise and drop (in terms of the raw power ranking number or the placement within their region)?   Just curious how many of the "bubble teams" currently sitting in the 9 or 10 spot have any chance of bumping out the current number 8 team. 

I saw Columbia lost like 1/10th a point in the overall rankings for beating a 1-8 team and dropped a whole point in SOS 

 

Escambia plays a team with the same record this week so likely they drop by a similar margin and more if other teams on their schedule take a loss while Columbia could benefit from teams earlier in the season winning this week 

 

What it shows is some things will cause small shifts but it will depend how close teams are heading into the week if they can get jumped/drop out

[Perspective]

3 minutes ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

I saw Columbia lost like 1/10th a point in the overall rankings for beating a 1-8 team and dropped a whole point in SOS 

 

Escambia plays a team with the same record this week so likely they drop by a similar margin and more if other teams on their schedule take a loss while Columbia could benefit from teams earlier in the season winning this week 

 

What it shows is some things will cause small shifts but it will depend how close teams are heading into the week if they can get jumped/drop out

OK, next question:  in the FHSAA rankings, there is a category for "rating" and a category for "strength."  Only the "rating" matters, right?   Why is the "strength" even there?   Does it serve a purpose? 

[DisabledAccount]

7 minutes ago, Perspective said:

OK, next question:  in the FHSAA rankings, there is a category for "rating" and a category for "strength."  Only the "rating" matters, right?   Why is the "strength" even there?   Does it serve a purpose? 

Strength is showing the SOS (but I think the FHSAA has either altered it in some way or diminished it's value in the algorithm because it doesn't match the one off MaxPreps and the FHSAA "claimed" the only thing changed was taking out margin of victory but I don't believe that accounts for the results being done )

 

The overall rating is what will be used to determine playoff teams

[Dr. D]

1 hour ago, Perspective said:

Has anyone been tracking the weekly rankings enough to know how much teams rise and drop (in terms of the raw power ranking number or the placement within their region)?   Just curious how many of the "bubble teams" currently sitting in the 9 or 10 spot have any chance of bumping out the current number 8 team. 

I have been tracking several teams informally.  Seems like the weekly change in Rating has decreased as more games are played, which makes sense.  Generally, the maximum a team's Rating has changed is around 10% from week to week at this point in the season.  Since this is the tenth game of the season for most teams this week, the maximum change I would expect in a team's rating is 10% (1/10).  So, if a team has a rating of 5.0 and wins, the most they would gain is 0.5, taking them to 5.5.  If a team with a rating of 7.0 loses, they would lose 0.7 taking them to 6.3.  The lower ranked team has made up 1.2 points, but not enough to overtake the higher ranked team.  This is only an approximation, not a mathematical calculation, since strength of the opponent will factor in.  Not good if you are playing an 0-9 team.  So, I would guess that any chasing teams need to be within about 1-1.5 points of the team in front of them to have any chance of passing that team.

[Steinbrenner Warriors]

23 hours ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

Strength is showing the SOS (but I think the FHSAA has either altered it in some way or diminished it's value in the algorithm because it doesn't match the one off MaxPreps and the FHSAA "claimed" the only thing changed was taking out margin of victory but I don't believe that accounts for the results being done )

 

The overall rating is what will be used to determine playoff teams

The Strength is legit just the rating of each of that teams' opponents added together and divided by the number of games played. I have been working on cracking the formula quite a bit and have figured out a few things a long the way. 

This may be public knowledge and I just never knew but Maxpreps, rating and Strength numbers are exact mirror copies of whatever Calpreps posts. So Calpreps computers do the work, maxpreps uses those numbers as their ratings. Calpreps may I add does a phenomenal job. Whatver the formula is they use is pretty damn good as nearly all state games are predicted at 82% or better. 

 

We are in a tight race with Dr. Phillips and Olympia for the last 2 playoffs spots in 4m 2. I predicted using what I thought was the formula within a couple tenths of a point this week. The issue is I still cannot for the life of me figure out exactly what they are using and being a couple tenths off this coming week means playoffs or no playoffs. 

I really do not understand the logic of not sharing the formula. Even share it on maxpreps pages so it generates traffic and advertising. Have a what if calculator and get 100 million new clicks with bored coaches and fans trying to see how they can get in. 

 

There is no doubt in my mind the current formula is a bit wonky because you can't just remove point spread from a beautiful computer formula that uses point spread heavily in their formula and expect a pretty picture.

Current top 10 4m2

Maxpreps                FHSAA

1. Ocoee                  1. West Orange 

2. West Orange       2. East Lake

3. Plant                    3. Ocoee

4. East Lake            4. Plant

5. Sumner               5. Sumner

6. Steinbrenner      6. Durant

7. Durant                7. Dr. Phillips

8. Olympia             8. Olympia

9. Newsome          9. Steinbrenner

10. Riverview        10. Alonso

 

We are a 6 seed per maxpreps, who mind you is the same company that does the FHSAA rankings but with the FHSAA we are not in the playoffs at this moment. 

This is why I wish they would give us the formula so we could see how things are being done so we can say, hey that makes sense... it is a pretty good tool. When the group that has us as a 6th seed, also ranks us as a 9th seed using whatever the different formula is... it is a bit tougher to swallow 

I do respect the FHSAA is trying to make things more fair and more balanced so the right teams get in and the better teams get chances to host even if their district was brutal. It is a bit disheartening however that we are left to sit until Sunday without knowing how to figure out if we are in or not but hoping and having faith the numbers have all been entered correctly. 

 

 

[181pl]

FHSAA has not gotten this right in years. It’s not rocket science or brain surgery. It’s high school football. It’s simple numbers.  

The root of the problem is too many classes. We do not need nine classes in Florida. We need six classes. We could go to seven if you wanted to separate private schools (4 public classes and 3 private classes). This would allow for large districts and/or large regions in each class.  District records or Regional records would determine playoffs (if fhsaa wanted to scrap the district model). Plain and simple. Also, the fhsaa should come up with a way to get more participation so there are less independent schools. I think over 600 schools play football in FLA but only 500 or so participate in classes. 

[h8r]

2 hours ago, Steinbrenner Warriors said:

The Strength is legit just the rating of each of that teams' opponents added together and divided by the number of games played. I have been working on cracking the formula quite a bit and have figured out a few things a long the way. 

This may be public knowledge and I just never knew but Maxpreps, rating and Strength numbers are exact mirror copies of whatever Calpreps posts. So Calpreps computers do the work, maxpreps uses those numbers as their ratings. Calpreps may I add does a phenomenal job. Whatver the formula is they use is pretty damn good as nearly all state games are predicted at 82% or better. 

 

We are in a tight race with Dr. Phillips and Olympia for the last 2 playoffs spots in 4m 2. I predicted using what I thought was the formula within a couple tenths of a point this week. The issue is I still cannot for the life of me figure out exactly what they are using and being a couple tenths off this coming week means playoffs or no playoffs. 

I really do not understand the logic of not sharing the formula. Even share it on maxpreps pages so it generates traffic and advertising. Have a what if calculator and get 100 million new clicks with bored coaches and fans trying to see how they can get in. 

 

There is no doubt in my mind the current formula is a bit wonky because you can't just remove point spread from a beautiful computer formula that uses point spread heavily in their formula and expect a pretty picture.

Current top 10 4m2

Maxpreps                FHSAA

1. Ocoee                  1. West Orange 

2. West Orange       2. East Lake

3. Plant                    3. Ocoee

4. East Lake            4. Plant

5. Sumner               5. Sumner

6. Steinbrenner      6. Durant

7. Durant                7. Dr. Phillips

8. Olympia             8. Olympia

9. Newsome          9. Steinbrenner

10. Riverview        10. Alonso

 

We are a 6 seed per maxpreps, who mind you is the same company that does the FHSAA rankings but with the FHSAA we are not in the playoffs at this moment. 

This is why I wish they would give us the formula so we could see how things are being done so we can say, hey that makes sense... it is a pretty good tool. When the group that has us as a 6th seed, also ranks us as a 9th seed using whatever the different formula is... it is a bit tougher to swallow 

I do respect the FHSAA is trying to make things more fair and more balanced so the right teams get in and the better teams get chances to host even if their district was brutal. It is a bit disheartening however that we are left to sit until Sunday without knowing how to figure out if we are in or not but hoping and having faith the numbers have all been entered correctly. 

 

 

cal preps is very cool site, 

the prediction model is interesting, but 82% is a bit high I think.  numbers dont equate to heart, attitude, weather, etc.  games aint won in cpus, they are won on the field.

its a bit ludacris to think that the top 8 in  a region could feature 4 schools from 1 district and 1 school from the other 3 districts.  not that those 4 may not be deserving,  and or some poor records for teams that played a tough schedule.  is what it is,

top 2 from each district, make the districts mandatory 6 teams, lower the classes back to 6 to increase sizes of the classes.  simple fix.  things like travel should be part of the appeal process.  playing in a tough district should not.  

[Steinbrenner Warriors]

3 hours ago, h8r said:

cal preps is very cool site, 

the prediction model is interesting, but 82% is a bit high I think.  numbers dont equate to heart, attitude, weather, etc.  games aint won in cpus, they are won on the field.

its a bit ludacris to think that the top 8 in  a region could feature 4 schools from 1 district and 1 school from the other 3 districts.  not that those 4 may not be deserving,  and or some poor records for teams that played a tough schedule.  is what it is,

top 2 from each district, make the districts mandatory 6 teams, lower the classes back to 6 to increase sizes of the classes.  simple fix.  things like travel should be part of the appeal process.  playing in a tough district should not.  

Go to their projection link... at the top says projection accuracy for 2022

http://calpreps.com/2022/projection_accuracy.htm

Their model has projected 1288 Wins and lost 249 for 83.8%

Their national pre game projections of games this year is 35,143- 6892 for 83.6% 

The model is phenomenal... it is based on point spread which increases greatly how well they can pinpoint wins and losses... the FHSAA model takes out the most important piece of the accuracy of power ratings

[DisabledAccount]

12 hours ago, Steinbrenner Warriors said:

Go to their projection link... at the top says projection accuracy for 2022

http://calpreps.com/2022/projection_accuracy.htm

Their model has projected 1288 Wins and lost 249 for 83.8%

Their national pre game projections of games this year is 35,143- 6892 for 83.6% 

The model is phenomenal... it is based on point spread which increases greatly how well they can pinpoint wins and losses... the FHSAA model takes out the most important piece of the accuracy of power ratings

Most of the losses in their system also come early in the season when they are relying on past season results to create a start point

 

That's why calpreps and MaxPreps have pathetically bad rankings in the preseason but it usually is solid by the end of the regular season

[h8r]

14 hours ago, Steinbrenner Warriors said:

Go to their projection link... at the top says projection accuracy for 2022

http://calpreps.com/2022/projection_accuracy.htm

Their model has projected 1288 Wins and lost 249 for 83.8%

Their national pre game projections of games this year is 35,143- 6892 for 83.6% 

The model is phenomenal... it is based on point spread which increases greatly how well they can pinpoint wins and losses... the FHSAA model takes out the most important piece of the accuracy of power ratings

ok cool,

cpu models still dont understand high school kids.  they are wrong too.

so I went thru a couple of games teams lost to teams they were supposed to beat and, cpu model says win but they actually got blown out in the game.

why?

because its a 16yr old kid, and weather in florida and whatever ever ever.