How the top seeds did . . .

[Perspective]

Ray, your post under the "TBT Shouldn't Have to Travel" topic got me thinking . . . how did the seeds do.  Here's what I've got so far, along with a few editorial comments:

4M:

R1:  6 of the 8 games will be played on Monday.  Apopka beat Boone on Saturday and now gets a couple extra days of rest and prep time.  And coaches can actually attend the Winter Park/Lake Brantley game Monday night to do their scouting in person. 

*** General observation:  I understand that a November hurricane is a rare occurrence and that player safety is of the utmost importance.  I also understand that certain parts of our state can be considered part of the Bible Belt.  That said, if games couldn't be played on Friday (because of field conditions or any other reasons), they should have been played Saturday (assuming the factors preventing play on Friday were resolved).  If not Saturday, the FHSAA should have given permission for the games to be played on Sunday.  I have absolutely no dogs in this fight, but to me it is patently unfair for one team to play on Friday night and then face an opponent that has played on the Monday of game week.   Think about it:  kids play Monday night.  Tuesday is basically a recovery day/film day.  Practice Wednesday.   And the Thursday before the Friday night game is essentially a walk-through practice.   So, a team playing Monday has to install their offensive game plan and the defense basically sees the red team O run their opponent's offense/plays one day - Wednesday. 

(Side note:  I can't imagine a team having a such a short time to try to prepare for Apopka back when they were running their single wing offense . . . but I digress).  While it might be OK  to ask a team to play Monday and then turn around and play again on Friday night in the regular season, it's just not right for the playoffs.  

OK, I'll get off my soapbox and get back to the seedings.

R2 - Top four seeds all won. 

R3 - all 8 games will be played Monday night, with winners playing again on Friday.  At least all 8 teams are in the same boat in this region. 

R4 - Top four seeds all won. 

3M:

R1 - 1 and 2 seed both won.  5 seed (Plant) beat 4 seed (Fletcher).  3 seed (Oviedo) plays 6 seed (Wharton) on Monday.   The winner has to turn around and play the 1 seed (Jones) four days later (see discussion above). 

R2 - Top four seeds all won.

R3 - 1 seed (STA) and 2 seed (Dillard) both won.  The 4/5 game and the 3/6 game both will be played on Monday, with the winners playing STA and Dillard, respectively, four days later.  Broken record time - that just ain't right. 

R4 - Top three seeds won and 5 beat 4 (Dr. Krop beat Belen Jesuit 23-17).

2M:

R1 - Chaos!!  If this were the NCAA Basketball tournament, this would be the bracket-buster region.  Much to ColumbiaFan's chagrin, 8 seed Riverside beat 1 seed Andrew Jackson 20-13; 5 seed (Raines) beat 4 seed (Ed White); and 7 seed beat 2 seed in the Bishop Bowl (Moore over Kinney).  The only top 4 seed to survive was 3 seed Bolles. 

R2 - Top four seeds all won.

R3 - The top of the bracket plays Monday; bottom of the bracket played Friday night and 2 and 3 seeds both won.  Friday night winners and Monday night winners will be on equal footing when it comes to playing the regional semifinal games.

R4 - Top four seeds all won (setting up a Central/Northwestern game this Friday night). 

1M : Opening round games will be played this Thursday and Friday. 

1R : Top 2 seeds got byes.   3 seeds all won handily.  5 seed beat the 4 seed in three of the four regions.   Only 4 seed to advance, much to Jesse's delight, was Madison County. 

4S:

R1 - 1, 3 and 4 seeds won.  7 seed (Crestview) upset 2 seed (Niceville).  This region featured one of the best games with 3 seed Buchholz beating Pace 35-34 with a last minute TD and a successful 2-point conversion. 

R2 - Top 2 seeds won; 5 beat 4 and 6 beat 3.

R3 - Top 2 seeds won, as did 4.  6 seed (Treasure Coast) beat 3 seed (Martin Co.) (see other thread). 

R4 - Ray, I think this is the region you were referring to.  5 beat 4; 7 beat 2; and 6 beat 3.  The only one of the top four seeds to win was Venice, who slipped by Archie, Jughead, Reggie and the rest of the Riverdale team 87 - 20.  (See separate thread for the discussion of this game). 

3S:

R1 - Top three seeds won and 5 beat 4 42-35.

R2 - 1, 3 and 4 won; 7 (Lecanto) beat 2 (Pasco) 45-14.

R3 - 1, 2 and 3 won.  4/5 game is Monday night, with the winner getting the privilege of playing top seed Rockledge four days later. 

R4 - Top four seeds all won.

2S:

R1 - Top four seeds all won.

R2 - 1, 2 and 3 won, but 5 beat 4 27-14.

R3 - Top four seeds all won.

R4 - Top two seeds both won, but 5 beat 4 in a close one and 6 beat 3 in a game that wasn't close. 

1S:   Opening round games will be played this  Friday. 

 

All I've got for now. 

 

 

[KeemD321]

For the teams who play Monday the FHSAA has given the option for those teams to either play their round 2 game on that Friday or Saturday. It's all up to the schools

[Perspective]

35 minutes ago, KeemD321 said:

For the teams who play Monday the FHSAA has given the option for those teams to either play their round 2 game on that Friday or Saturday. It's all up to the schools

Keem, thanks.  Do you have a link for that?  I'm wondering if it applies to any team that plays Monday or only to games where both teams played on Monday.  If a team that wins on Monday is playing a team that played Friday, I can't imagine any coach choosing to play on Friday if Saturday is an option. 

[KeemD321]

1 hour ago, Perspective said:

Keem, thanks.  Do you have a link for that?  I'm wondering if it applies to any team that plays Monday or only to games where both teams played on Monday.  If a team that wins on Monday is playing a team that played Friday, I can't imagine any coach choosing to play on Friday if Saturday is an option. 

I would have to look it up but it was reported by Brevard Sports Network since Eau Gallie is playing Mainland Monday and the winner of that game plays at Rockledge. 

[THIS_IS_DILLARD]

14 hours ago, Perspective said:

Keem, thanks.  Do you have a link for that?  I'm wondering if it applies to any team that plays Monday or only to games where both teams played on Monday.  If a team that wins on Monday is playing a team that played Friday, I can't imagine any coach choosing to play on Friday if Saturday is an option. 

The winner of ely vs Dwyer will play @ Dillard Saturday night at 7:30pm. 

[DarterBlue2]

12 hours ago, THIS_IS_DILLARD said:

The winner of ely vs Dwyer will play @ Dillard Saturday night at 7:30pm. 

That will be Ely!

[Ray Icaza]

#1 Seed Seminole trails Mandarin in the 3rd qtr.  Their offense loses a lot of firepower without their starting QB.  Again, they have a backup and he is decent but they ain't the same with Rucker out. 

[DarterBlue2]

20 minutes ago, Ray Icaza said:

#1 Seed Seminole trails Mandarin in the 3rd qtr.  Their offense loses a lot of firepower without their starting QB.  Again, they have a backup and he is decent but they ain't the same with Rucker out. 

That's the truth. That's one of the reasons we beat them.

[Ray Icaza]

Just now, DarterBlue2 said:

That's the truth. That's one of the reasons we beat them.

Looks like they just re-took the lead in the 4th qtr. 30-28.

[Ray Icaza]

1 hour ago, DarterBlue2 said:

That will be Ely!

You called it!!  Ely leads 21-0 in the 4th qtr.

[DarterBlue2]

1 minute ago, Ray Icaza said:

You called it!!  Ely leads 21-0 in the 4th qtr.

Their feature back played a minor role in our success last year. It's a pity he returned to Broward County. We could certainly have used him this year. 

[DarterBlue2]

4 minutes ago, Ray Icaza said:

Looks like they just re-took the lead in the 4th qtr. 30-28.

Win or lose, Seminole is clearly in a dog fight against the lowest seeded team in the region. 

[Ray Icaza]

10 minutes ago, Ray Icaza said:

Looks like they just re-took the lead in the 4th qtr. 30-28.

It's a final and Seminole survives to play another Friday (30-28).

[DarterBlue2]

4 minutes ago, Ray Icaza said:

It's a final and Seminole survives to play another Friday (30-28).

I have mixed feelings about that. But first we would need to get by Winter Park which will be no walk in the park!

[Ray Icaza]

2 minutes ago, DarterBlue2 said:

I have mixed feelings about that. But first we would need to get by Winter Park which will be no walk in the park!

Seems like they are making short work of Lake Brantley (31-0).  Offensively they have looked good all year but their defense has shown down the stretch. 

[Ray Icaza]

Oviedo was a higher seed in this region over Wharton but trailed all night before tying the score 14-14 late forcing overtime.   They ended up winning in OT 22-21, another nailbiter but another win by CFL team vs Hillsborough team.  West Orange trounced Steinbrenner and Ocoee beat Durant.  Couple of heavyweights from each region face off on Friday when Edgewater takes on Tampa Bay Tech.  Playoffs have now arrived. 

[DarterBlue2]

11 minutes ago, Ray Icaza said:

Oviedo was a higher seed in this region over Wharton but trailed all night before tying the score 14-14 late forcing overtime.   They ended up winning in OT 22-21, another nailbiter but another win by CFL team vs Hillsborough team.  West Orange trounced Steinbrenner and Ocoee beat Durant.  Couple of heavyweights from each region face off on Friday when Edgewater takes on Tampa Bay Tech.  Playoffs have now arrived. 

That game should be  a nail biter. Jones, the lower seed, has a much easier path to the Regional Finals than Edgewater. 

Speaking of which, I wonder if the game will be played at Jones or a neutral site given what happened Saturday. 

[Ray Icaza]

41 minutes ago, DarterBlue2 said:

That game should be  a nail biter. Jones, the lower seed, has a much easier path to the Regional Finals than Edgewater. 

Speaking of which, I wonder if the game will be played at Jones or a neutral site given what happened Saturday. 

I bet Jones wants to play at home vs Oviedo and you are right as it being the more favorable matchup.  

[Perspective]

11 hours ago, Ray Icaza said:

Oviedo was a higher seed in this region over Wharton but trailed all night before tying the score 14-14 late forcing overtime.   They ended up winning in OT 22-21, another nailbiter but another win by CFL team vs Hillsborough team.  West Orange trounced Steinbrenner and Ocoee beat Durant.  Couple of heavyweights from each region face off on Friday when Edgewater takes on Tampa Bay Tech.  Playoffs have now arrived. 

What a great game. 

I saw an endzone video of the 2-point conversion in OT that gave Oviedo the win.   I don't think it could have been any closer.   When I first saw it, it looked like the RB came up inches short.   But then I saw a slow-mo version where it appeared the RB may have just broken the plane before landing short of the goal.  Without a goal line camera/view, it's hard to tell.   It's really important to have the right perspective.  

Too bad someone had to lose that game.  But, it brings me to my question (I eventually get there):

@Jambun82, when I watched the video, there was an official (line judge?) right on the goal line.   The play came towards him and did NOT involve a big pile up.  It was basically the RB against a LB or DB, with a second defender coming in to help.  From the video I saw, there was nothing in the way of the official that obscured his line of sight.  In other words, he appeared to be in perfect position and had a clear sight line as to whether the ball broke the plane or not.   As I believe he's supposed to, he immediately closed the gap and ran in to where the play ended.  But instead of giving an immediate signal (either raising his hands to signify a TD or waiving his hands over his head and putting his foot down to signify that the offensive player was stopped short of the goal line), he basically stood there for what seemed like an eternity before he finally signaled a score.  Why?   Under the circumstances that I laid out, what would cause the line judge to wait so long before signaling?   Who or what would or could he be waiting on?  I'll keep the conspiracy theories to myself for now.

Thanks in advance. 

[Dr. D]

With deference to Perspective's original topic, it is also informative to see how the top seeds (1, 2, 3, 4) fared this year as compared to 2021.  In 2021, top seeds won 68% (60/88) of regional quarterfinal games.  in 2022, top seeds won 81% (78/96) of regional quarterfinal games.  The obvious conclusion is that eliminating automatic top-4 seeds for district champions and seeding by Power Rankings produced a more accurate seeding order, leading to more victories by the "more deserving" top seeds.  The 81% figure is also on level with the purported predictive accuracy of the MaxPreps/CalPreps ratings.  The 19%-win rate by the lower seeds (5, 6, 7, 8) shows that games are settled on the field, not by CPUs.

[Perspective]

10 minutes ago, Dr. D said:

With deference to Perspective's original topic, it is also informative to see how the top seeds (1, 2, 3, 4) fared this year as compared to 2021.  In 2021, top seeds won 68% (60/88) of regional quarterfinal games.  in 2022, top seeds won 81% (78/96) of regional quarterfinal games.  The obvious conclusion is that eliminating automatic top-4 seeds for district champions and seeding by Power Rankings produced a more accurate seeding order, leading to more victories by the "more deserving" top seeds.  The 81% figure is also on level with the purported predictive accuracy of the MaxPreps/CalPreps ratings.  The 19%-win rate by the lower seeds (5, 6, 7, 8) shows that games are settled on the field, not by CPUs.

Point well taken.   I noticed the same thing.  In fact, when I was typing out the original post, I even 'copied' the "Top four seeds all won" line so that I could 'paste' it in where applicable.  And it was applicable several times.  

That said, I'll go to my grave believing that the winner of each district deserves, at a minimum, to host the first round of the playoffs . . . even if that means the winner of a weak district hosts a runner up from a strong district and, as a result, the traveling team has a higher power rating than the home team based on some formula that no one can figure out. 

[Dr. D]

As you may recall, it was a relatively last-minute decision by the Board of Directors to guarantee district champions would host an at-large team, regardless of seed, in the regional quarterfinal round.  The problem is when two district champions are drawn against one another.  In that case, one of the district champions is going to be left out in the cold for hosting purposes.  While I personally agree with your sentiment, not sure I want to mess with the current seeding model since it seems to be pretty accurate.  As an aside, I need to look and see how many district champions that hosted now have to go on the road to a higher seed, whether an at-large team or a higher seeded district champion.

[Jambun82]

11 hours ago, Perspective said:

What a great game. 

I saw an endzone video of the 2-point conversion in OT that gave Oviedo the win.   I don't think it could have been any closer.   When I first saw it, it looked like the RB came up inches short.   But then I saw a slow-mo version where it appeared the RB may have just broken the plane before landing short of the goal.  Without a goal line camera/view, it's hard to tell.   It's really important to have the right perspective.  

Too bad someone had to lose that game.  But, it brings me to my question (I eventually get there):

@Jambun82, when I watched the video, there was an official (line judge?) right on the goal line.   The play came towards him and did NOT involve a big pile up.  It was basically the RB against a LB or DB, with a second defender coming in to help.  From the video I saw, there was nothing in the way of the official that obscured his line of sight.  In other words, he appeared to be in perfect position and had a clear sight line as to whether the ball broke the plane or not.   As I believe he's supposed to, he immediately closed the gap and ran in to where the play ended.  But instead of giving an immediate signal (either raising his hands to signify a TD or waiving his hands over his head and putting his foot down to signify that the offensive player was stopped short of the goal line), he basically stood there for what seemed like an eternity before he finally signaled a score.  Why?   Under the circumstances that I laid out, what would cause the line judge to wait so long before signaling?   Who or what would or could he be waiting on?  I'll keep the conspiracy theories to myself for now.

Thanks in advance. 

Perspective, I really wouldn't be able to answer that without seeing the play myself. Thank you. 

[DarterBlue2]

12 hours ago, Perspective said:

What a great game. 

I saw an endzone video of the 2-point conversion in OT that gave Oviedo the win.   I don't think it could have been any closer.   When I first saw it, it looked like the RB came up inches short.   But then I saw a slow-mo version where it appeared the RB may have just broken the plane before landing short of the goal.  Without a goal line camera/view, it's hard to tell.   It's really important to have the right perspective.  

Too bad someone had to lose that game.  But, it brings me to my question (I eventually get there):

@Jambun82, when I watched the video, there was an official (line judge?) right on the goal line.   The play came towards him and did NOT involve a big pile up.  It was basically the RB against a LB or DB, with a second defender coming in to help.  From the video I saw, there was nothing in the way of the official that obscured his line of sight.  In other words, he appeared to be in perfect position and had a clear sight line as to whether the ball broke the plane or not.   As I believe he's supposed to, he immediately closed the gap and ran in to where the play ended.  But instead of giving an immediate signal (either raising his hands to signify a TD or waiving his hands over his head and putting his foot down to signify that the offensive player was stopped short of the goal line), he basically stood there for what seemed like an eternity before he finally signaled a score.  Why?   Under the circumstances that I laid out, what would cause the line judge to wait so long before signaling?   Who or what would or could he be waiting on?  I'll keep the conspiracy theories to myself for now.

Thanks in advance. 

My guess is he probably was not sure himself even from his vantage point. Therefore, he was reluctant to commit either way. After giving it some thought, for whatever reason, he decided to rule in favor of the conversion.  

[Perspective]

11 hours ago, Jambun82 said:

Perspective, I really wouldn't be able to answer that without seeing the play myself. Thank you. 

Ask and ye shall receive.