Competitive balance?

[gatorman-uf]

On 11/23/2022 at 11:38 AM, Joshua Wilson said:

Watered down? Looking at this week's games, they are mostly competitive matchups outside a couple of games. Are we really serious that we are going to say this is watered down? Of course we could be like New Jersey and hand out 20 plus titles a year. We could be like them.

In defense of NJ, they only have 7 state championships now.

[cribboy305]

It is now possible for central & AH to play for all the marbles which I predicted. Homestead & STA can play for a state championship as well as columbus & apopka. It will be a movie in ft lauderdale come next month if all these matchups happen. 

[VeniceIndianFan]

1 hour ago, cribboy305 said:

It is now possible for central & AH to play for all the marbles which I predicted. Homestead & STA can play for a state championship as well as columbus & apopka. It will be a movie in ft lauderdale come next month if all these matchups happen. 

And now that Mater Dei lost, the door is open for Central to take home the National Championship! 

[anonimis]

 

 

Mismatches in district play are increasing over time.

Non-District play might be converging, hard to say.  This would be suggest coaches schedule their games better than the state schedules their games.

The playoffs are still in progress for this season, but I didn't want to leave it out for all the other years.  Score differences in the playoffs are increasing over time.

[Joshua Wilson]

On 11/24/2022 at 7:06 PM, gatorman-uf said:

In defense of NJ, they only have 7 state championships now.

About time they woke up from their slumber on that one.

[Joshua Wilson]

15 hours ago, anonimis said:

 

 

Mismatches in district play are increasing over time.

Non-District play might be converging, hard to say.  This would be suggest coaches schedule their games better than the state schedules their games.

The playoffs are still in progress for this season, but I didn't want to leave it out for all the other years.  Score differences in the playoffs are increasing over time.

Suggesting we should banish districts once and for all or should coaches put more emphasis on their non-district schedule? 

[DisabledAccount]

8 minutes ago, Joshua Wilson said:

Suggesting we should banish districts once and for all or should coaches put more emphasis on their non-district schedule? 

Well the FHSAA rankings exposed that it will favor record SIGNIFICANTLY higher than SOS going forward so it will be harder for good teams to find games

 

#3 team in 3S was Lake Wales which has the 24th out of 25th highest SOS in the 3S Top 25 (MaxPreps) 

 

And I can guarantee you that if you abolish districts there will be teams who will struggle to fill a schedule

[DisabledAccount]

I still think the FHSAA went and lowered the effect of SOS on the formula without telling anyone

 

After all if nobody but the FHSAA and MaxPreps have access to the formula THERE IS NO WAY TO KNOW WHAT WAS CHANGED FOR CERTAIN

[Joshua Wilson]

It is the margin of victory factor that is not equated into the formula for the FHSAA. I am telling you all this now. If the margin of victory component was added in you would see how it impacts SOS significantly and the rankings themselves.

[DisabledAccount]

Just now, Joshua Wilson said:

It is the margin of victory factor that is not equated into the formula for the FHSAA. I am telling you all this now. If the margin of victory component was added in you would see how it impacts SOS significantly and the rankings themselves.

But Josh if you like everyone else haven't seen the formula how can you be certain that margin of victory was the only thing changed? The problem is when you have an organization that goes and takes a route that basically removed any transparency and ability to double check the work it's hard for me to blindly trust them 

 

We had math errors on the point system and RPI because the FHSAA put the wrong information down and it was discovered by the schools tracking it as well and getting it corrected

 

We can't double check this system either which raises another problem about how do we know someone didn't get screwed out of the playoffs because the FHSAA put the wrong info down on a team, there were some very close races for playoff spots and seeding 

[Joshua Wilson]

17 minutes ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

But Josh if you like everyone else haven't seen the formula how can you be certain that margin of victory was the only thing changed? The problem is when you have an organization that goes and takes a route that basically removed any transparency and ability to double check the work it's hard for me to blindly trust them 

 

We had math errors on the point system and RPI because the FHSAA put the wrong information down and it was discovered by the schools tracking it as well and getting it corrected

 

We can't double check this system either which raises another problem about how do we know someone didn't get screwed out of the playoffs because the FHSAA put the wrong info down on a team, there were some very close races for playoff spots and seeding 

Also the responsibility of the schools to make sure the correct information is submitted. It goes both ways when it comes to data. 

[anonimis]

On 11/27/2022 at 10:45 AM, Joshua Wilson said:

Suggesting we should banish districts once and for all or should coaches put more emphasis on their non-district schedule? 

Hard to say where coaches should put their emphasis without knowing the exact way teams are rated.

I think districts can work with changes.  In my eyes, the problem is classes.  Many mismatches are caused by setting districts using population, then location.  Schools are obligated to play games that neither team would ever schedule on their own.  An example is Chaminade vs Somerset Academy Key, which ended 90-0.  Chaminade is an established national power and Somerset is a startup program.  The only things they have in common are population and location.  Both schools are in Broward county, where there are many other teams that could give each team better matchups.  With the current transfer rules, school population has less of a relation with team ability.

I think a system that could work replaces population/location classes/districts with team-ratings/location based "districts" with out of district games scheduled by teams.  This ensures teams play competitive games, but can still play some city championship or rivalry type games.  If teams don't play competitive games across the board, its much harder to rate teams, especially if margin of victory isn't taken into account like it is Florida.

Another option is to have a "beginning of season district" with games in the first 6 or so weeks of the season, followed by a reshuffle of "playoff rating districts" for the last 4 or so weeks of the season in the interest of competitive balance to identify deserving teams for post season play.  Non-district games are sprinkled throughout the season.  I'm not sure how many district games would be needed for this, but I think 4 at the beginning and 2 at the end would work.  I'd also support a system where winning a "district" is rewarded and wildcards can be added.  Similar to what already exists.

[anonimis]

On 11/26/2022 at 6:49 PM, anonimis said:

 

Here is Georgia for comparison.  They have been a little bit better, but their scores differences are creeping up too.

Georgia Region = Florida District

[Dr. D]

Maybe it's time to think outside the box.  Florida could be bold and adapt the model utilized by California to seed its Sectional playoff brackets.  (Note: California uses CalPreps rankings, but Florida could use the FHSAA Power Rankings or any other ranking system.)

The top 16 teams in the end-of-regular season rankings would be placed in the Division 1 ("Super 16") bracket.  The next 32 highest ranked teams (teams #17-48) would be placed in the Division 2 bracket, the next 32 highest ranked teams (teams #49-80) would be placed in the Division 3 bracket, and so on for however many playoff levels you wish to have.  Seeding within the brackets is also based on the computer ranking,

This year's first-round "Super 16" matchups, based on the end-of-regular season FHSAA Power Rankings would look like this (focus on the concept, not the specific teams):

#1 Miami Central vs. #16 Cardinal Newman;   #8 American Heritage vs. #9 Lakeland;

#4 Trinity Christian vs. #13 Jones;                  #5 Bartram Trail vs. #12 Clearwater Central Catholic;

#2 Edgewater vs. #15 Seminole;                     #7 Columbus vs. #10 University Christian;

#3 STA vs. #14 Cardinal Gibbons;                  #6 Chaminade-Madonna vs. #11 Pine Forest;

So teams are essentially classified for the playoffs AFTER the season, not before, based solely on their in-season performance that year.  School enrollment and population density have no bearing.  Sort of annual promotion/relegation taken to the extreme.  Such a system would seemingly promote more "competitive balance" at all playoff levels, since teams would be grouped with others of similar strength in that given year.  (I know this would never fly with the FHSAA, but we've eventually got to move on from this 1990s paradigm of school enrollment as a prominent factor in the classification process.)

 

[Perspective]

17 minutes ago, Dr. D said:

Maybe it's time to think outside the box.  Florida could be bold and adapt the model utilized by California to seed its Sectional playoff brackets.  (Note: California uses CalPreps rankings, but Florida could use the FHSAA Power Rankings or any other ranking system.)

The top 16 teams in the end-of-regular season rankings would be placed in the Division 1 ("Super 16") bracket.  The next 32 highest ranked teams (teams #17-48) would be placed in the Division 2 bracket, the next 32 highest ranked teams (teams #49-80) would be placed in the Division 3 bracket, and so on for however many playoff levels you wish to have.  Seeding within the brackets is also based on the computer ranking,

This year's first-round "Super 16" matchups, based on the end-of-regular season FHSAA Power Rankings would look like this (focus on the concept, not the specific teams):

#1 Miami Central vs. #16 Cardinal Newman;   #8 American Heritage vs. #9 Lakeland;

#4 Trinity Christian vs. #13 Jones;                  #5 Bartram Trail vs. #12 Clearwater Central Catholic;

#2 Edgewater vs. #15 Seminole;                     #7 Columbus vs. #10 University Christian;

#3 STA vs. #14 Cardinal Gibbons;                  #6 Chaminade-Madonna vs. #11 Pine Forest;

So teams are essentially classified for the playoffs AFTER the season, not before, based solely on their in-season performance that year.  School enrollment and population density have no bearing.  Sort of annual promotion/relegation taken to the extreme.  Such a system would seemingly promote more "competitive balance" at all playoff levels, since teams would be grouped with others of similar strength in that given year.  (I know this would never fly with the FHSAA, but we've eventually got to move on from this 1990s paradigm of school enrollment as a prominent factor in the classification process.)

 

I like when folks think outside the box.   My immediate concern would be the travel issue.  What happens when a #9 seed from the Panhandle has to play a #8 seed from South Florida in an opening round game?  And then what happens when that #9 team gets the "upset win" and then has to turn around and get back to South Florida for a second round game? 

While I understand your argument about using (or not using) student population as the key factor, I do believe that geography should play some role in determining when and where teams play early round playoff games. 

[Dr. D]

Travel would definitely be a very big concern.  California is made up of 10 Sections, so the travel is reduced, although can still be significant.  There are several iterations of this model that could be employed.  One way would be to use the current Region set-up and apply the power rankings to populate the Regional brackets, regardless of class.  Lakeland, Clearwater Central Catholic, Lake Wales, and Tampa Catholic might be in the same Regional bracket, for example.  Then the Regional winners would advance to the state semifinals as they do now.  Some states allow the state association to move teams up or down on the seed line (within reason) to mitigate travel.  You could force teams to opt-in or opt-out of the State playoffs on the front end and relegate the opt-outers to some sort of regional series.  Obviously, a hypothetical discussion, but talking about things is the only way to possibly create movement, as opposed to the status quo.  Rotary telephones were great in the 1990s, but we moved on.  Same with student enrollment.     

[Floridaatlantic1]

The suburban - metro idea was poor solution to real problem of imbalance between haves and have not due to recruiting.  As I predicted. The same teams who already made it to the finals or semi finals in old system but lost will win the suburban titles. The same group of teams will win suburban every year just like the same will win metro with a few exceptions . Move teams up who dominate and put all Chester in one or two classes and let non cheater play each other in others. . Real solution  to problem 

[VeniceIndianFan]

9 minutes ago, Floridaatlantic1 said:

The suburban - metro idea was poor solution to real problem of imbalance between haves and have not due to recruiting.  As I predicted. The same teams who already made it to the finals or semi finals in old system but lost will win the suburban titles. The same group of teams will win suburban every year just like the same will win metro with a few exceptions . Move teams up who dominate and put all Chester in one or two classes and let non cheater play each other in others. . Real solution  to problem 

But every single state championship game, with the exception of CMD and CCC, has a chance to be competitive now. You fail to realize that the FHSAA knew that there was a problem with blowouts in state championships, so they took steps to fix it. Just look at the finals matchups:

STA vs Homestead

Central vs AHP

Venice vs Lakeland

Lake Wales vs Mainland

Chaminade vs CCC

First Baptist vs Trinity Catholic

Columbus vs Apopka

Hawthorne vs Northview

FSU High vs Cocoa

The only runaway I see is CMD vs CCC. Add in the fact that teams now have two weeks to prepare for their state championship opponents instead of just 1 like before, and it should be clear that the FHSAA took a big step in the right direction.

[DarterBlue2]

8 minutes ago, VeniceIndiansFootball said:

But every single state championship game, with the exception of CMD and CCC, has a chance to be competitive now. You fail to realize that the FHSAA knew that there was a problem with blowouts in state championships, so they took steps to fix it. Just look at the finals matchups:

STA vs Homestead

Central vs AHP

Venice vs Lakeland

Lake Wales vs Mainland

Chaminade vs CCC

First Baptist vs Trinity Catholic

Columbus vs Apopka

Hawthorne vs Northview

FSU High vs Cocoa

The only runaway I see is CMD vs CCC. Add in the fact that teams now have two weeks to prepare for their state championship opponents instead of just 1 like before, and it should be clear that the FHSAA took a big step in the right direction.

There will be at least four or five blowouts in the above list. 

I also don't think attendance will be any better than it was under the pre urban/suburban. 

[VeniceIndianFan]

My predictions:

STA does just enough to defeat Homestead.

Venice wins over Lakeland.

Hawthorne edges Northview.

Trinity Catholic defeats First Baptist.

Cocoa leaves their late scares against Bradford behind and dominates FSU High.

Columbus hands Apopka a second straight championship loss.

Chaminade BIG over CCC.

Lake Wales takes a convincing win over Mainland.

Central completes their dream season and overtakes AHP to claim the state and national championship.

 

[VeniceIndianFan]

10 minutes ago, DarterBlue2 said:

There will be at least four or five blowouts in the above list. 

I also don't think attendance will be any better than it was under the pre urban/suburban. 

Between whom?

[DarterBlue2]

7 hours ago, VeniceIndiansFootball said:

Between whom?

You already have three in your predictions. I will leave you to figure out the fourth and possible fifth.

[Dan in Daytona]

11 hours ago, VeniceIndiansFootball said:

My predictions:

STA does just enough to defeat Homestead.

Venice wins over Lakeland.

Hawthorne edges Northview.

Trinity Catholic defeats First Baptist.

Cocoa leaves their late scares against Bradford behind and dominates FSU High.

Columbus hands Apopka a second straight championship loss.

Chaminade BIG over CCC.

Lake Wales takes a convincing win over Mainland.

Central completes their dream season and overtakes AHP to claim the state and national championship.

 

Homer prediction :

Mainland beats Lake Wales and wins the 3S title. ( Lake Wales ain't Miami Central ).

[imjustafan2]

Thursday-Saturday, December 8-10

12 hours ago, VeniceIndiansFootball said:

 Add in the fact that teams now have two weeks to prepare for their state championship opponents instead of just 1 like before, and it should be clear that the FHSAA took a big step in the right direction.

Not for 1M, 1R, 1S & 2S. They play starting Thursday-Saturday, December 8-10.

[VeniceIndianFan]

2 hours ago, Dan in Daytona said:

Homer prediction :

Mainland beats Lake Wales and wins the 3S title. ( Lake Wales ain't Miami Central ).

I thought Columbia would beat them soundly, but boy, was I wrong. Best of luck to your Bucs. Don't overlook them!