This week's FHSAA MaxPreps rankings

[Dr. D]

For those who haven't seen them, the "official" FHSAA MaxPreps rankings (or whatever they are called) have been released and can be viewed here: https://fhsaa.com/rankings.aspx?path=football

Don't ask me how they are calculated, why they are so much different than the rankings on the MaxPreps website, and why Jay is #17 and STA is #57.  

[SportsFan]

39 minutes ago, Dr. D said:

For those who haven't seen them, the "official" FHSAA MaxPreps rankings (or whatever they are called) have been released and can be viewed here: https://fhsaa.com/rankings.aspx?path=football

Don't ask me how they are calculated, why they are so much different than the rankings on the MaxPreps website, and why Jay is #17 and STA is #57.  

Because it's just a ranking of record with SOS being used to separate teams with the same records 

And these rankings are hot flaming garbage 

Thank you state leadership for giving us the worst rankings setup imaginable 

[Perspective]

Legit question:   do these rankings mean anything (anything at all) until the final rankings come out after the games are played the final week of the season? 

[Dr. D]

Except there are numerous examples of team with a weaker SOS being ranked above a team with the same record.  Which makes even less sense, so clearly there are some other factors involved.  Of course we will never know what these factors are since the formula is more closely guarded than the secret recipe for the original Kentucky Fried Chicken.  The defenders of these rankings can say what they want, but agree with you on your assessment of this system.

[SportsFan]

14 minutes ago, Perspective said:

Legit question:   do these rankings mean anything (anything at all) until the final rankings come out after the games are played the final week of the season? 

So your saying teams should wait until AFTER they get screwed out of a playoff spot to speak up on a system that we 1) have no idea what goes into the formula and 2) have no way to double check the results to make sure the FHSAA didn't screw up inputting the correct information 

[SportsFan]

13 minutes ago, Dr. D said:

Except there are numerous examples of team with a weaker SOS being ranked above a team with the same record.  Which makes even less sense, so clearly there are some other factors involved.  Of course we will never know what these factors are since the formula is more closely guarded than the secret recipe for the original Kentucky Fried Chicken.  The defenders of these rankings can say what they want, but agree with you on your assessment of this system.

Problem is that with the formula being unknown we don't know for sure that any factors are even in play 

For all we know the FHSAA hand picks every team based on something completely random 

It's not like we could check the formula and be sure of it so we will continue to have a system that lacks transparency and that will make it impossible for us to actually judge what is being used to determine the postseason 

Basically seems the key to making the playoffs is buy easy wins and luck out with a crappy district and you can go to the playoffs easily every year 

[Dr. D]

1 hour ago, Perspective said:

Legit question:   do these rankings mean anything (anything at all) until the final rankings come out after the games are played the final week of the season? 

No, but that doesn't mean they are harmless.  I can cite at least one example of a team cancelling a Week 11 game last year and replacing with a stronger team in an attempt to improve its SOS.  Should teams run up the score, not knowing if/how much margin of victory impacts their rating?  Wouldn't it be better if the factors and weighting of those factors going into the rating was known and transparent, so that teams could plan their schedule accordingly?  Does it matter that the ratings cannot be verified for accuracy? (since no one ever makes an error when thousands of bits of data are input into a system).  Or wouldn't it just be better if we had large districts and playoff qualification was based on head-to-head, round-robin competition, like numerous other southern states? 

[HSfootballguy]

Josh just explained it on twitter after calling FHSAA.  For football only, maxpreps uses a prediction model. So, the ranking include predicting rest of season wins/losses.  FHSAA eliminates that prediction in their rankings, which is why they are different.  At end of season, all the games will be played and no more predictions. The ranking will be closer or the same between the two.

[Longtime Observer]

The problem, as is always the case with computer ratings, is the matter of strength of schedule. It's not that SOS doesn't matter or is overvalued. It's that determining HOW to measure SOS is tricky. Inevitably, either records end up being determinant (which makes an easier schedule a good idea), OR a good bit of subjectivity- in how programmers feel about teams and adjust their formulas- plays a large role.

As others have said, the exact formula and weighting system must be revealed to the public if these ratings are to be used to set playoff seeding. If the owner of the formula won't reveal it, it shouldn't be used to determine the outcomes of teams' seasons. 

[Longtime Observer]

7 hours ago, Dr. D said:

No, but that doesn't mean they are harmless.  I can cite at least one example of a team cancelling a Week 11 game last year and replacing with a stronger team in an attempt to improve its SOS.  Should teams run up the score, not knowing if/how much margin of victory impacts their rating?  Wouldn't it be better if the factors and weighting of those factors going into the rating was known and transparent, so that teams could plan their schedule accordingly?  Does it matter that the ratings cannot be verified for accuracy? (since no one ever makes an error when thousands of bits of data are input into a system).  Or wouldn't it just be better if we had large districts and playoff qualification was based on head-to-head, round-robin competition, like numerous other southern states? 

The matter of "running up the score" has ALREADY been accounted for- in a significant way- by having the hyper-aggressive running clock rule (Florida's running clock runs much more liberally than many other states' running clock). This perverse obsession with wanting everyone to be equal, and/or not wanting to hurt others' feelings, has gone too far. Margin of victory DOES help to determine who the better teams are in the aggregate. 

[Longtime Observer]

6 hours ago, HSfootballguy said:

Josh just explained it on twitter after calling FHSAA.  For football only, maxpreps uses a prediction model. So, the ranking include predicting rest of season wins/losses.  FHSAA eliminates that prediction in their rankings, which is why they are different.  At end of season, all the games will be played and no more predictions. The ranking will be closer or the same between the two.

STA is currently #57 in the state. The Raiders are currently behind the likes of Beachside (confession: I did not know there was such a school) and many teams with one or more losses. The Raiders are the #1 team in the state in the maxpreps ratings. I'm sorry, but, I don't think the mere presence or absence of some "prediction model" explains this. Something profoundly screwy is impacting the ratings.

[SportsFan]

On 9/24/2024 at 9:33 PM, Longtime Observer said:

STA is currently #57 in the state. The Raiders are currently behind the likes of Beachside (confession: I did not know there was such a school) and many teams with one or more losses. The Raiders are the #1 team in the state in the maxpreps ratings. I'm sorry, but, I don't think the mere presence or absence of some "prediction model" explains this. Something profoundly screwy is impacting the ratings.

Beachside was opened like 2 years ago as a relief school for Bartram Trail and Creekside

[Cat_Scratch]

SOS is truly broken at this point in the season. Hopefully strength of schedule will regain some justification before the end of the season. 

There is no way more than half the teams  have better strength to schedules than say Cocoa. IMG,Venice, Norland, etc... are not easy crappy teams. How does the system justify Bolles and Bishop Verot have a stronger schedule. Unless the system does not factor in IMG, even though they use IMG in the win loss bracket.

[Jullian]

23 hours ago, Dr. D said:

For those who haven't seen them, the "official" FHSAA MaxPreps rankings (or whatever they are called) have been released and can be viewed here: https://fhsaa.com/rankings.aspx?path=football

Don't ask me how they are calculated, why they are so much different than the rankings on the MaxPreps website, and why Jay is #17 and STA is #57.  

Congratulations to our #1 team in the state…..Nease!!!! Bishop Moore has to feel pretty good about being the 5th best team in the state. As stated above , that powerhouse Jay that knocked off unbeaten Chipley last week, is better than any South Florida team!!!! There comes a time where we might have to storm the gates of the FHSAA or at least start a petition to get their heads out their backsides concerning EVERYTHING pertaining to Florida High School football! They make Dumb & Dumber look Smart & Smarter……..

[PinellasFB]

18 hours ago, HSfootballguy said:

Josh just explained it on twitter after calling FHSAA.  For football only, maxpreps uses a prediction model. So, the ranking include predicting rest of season wins/losses.  FHSAA eliminates that prediction in their rankings, which is why they are different.  At end of season, all the games will be played and no more predictions. The ranking will be closer or the same between the two.

Prediction model uses margin of victory, I presume?  Right now, without MoV in the rankings, the rankings are garbage.  At the end of the year they will get better but still need MoV for a power ranking, which what this is supposed to be.  It sounds like FHSAA in their mathematical non-wisdom still chooses to eliminate the SINGLE BIGGEST ACCURACY FACTOR in any power rankings.  Elo Chess, which is a ranking system based upon W-L record only, requires thousands and thousands of games (chess matches) to converge to an acceptable confidence interval.  You only get 10 games in a season and not even close to a sufficient number of games to become accurate.

[Perspective]

1 minute ago, PinellasFB said:

Prediction model uses margin of victory, I presume?  Right now, without MoV in the rankings, the rankings are garbage.  At the end of the year they will get better but still need MoV for a power ranking, which what this is supposed to be.  It sounds like FHSAA in their mathematical non-wisdom still chooses to eliminate the SINGLE BIGGEST ACCURACY FACTOR in any power rankings.  Elo Chess, which is a ranking system based upon W-L record only, requires thousands and thousands of games (chess matches) to converge to an acceptable confidence interval.  You only get 10 games in a season and not even close to a sufficient number of games to become accurate.

Well said . . . although this may be the first time I can recall seeing a "chess" reference on a high school football message board.  

[Ray Icaza]

12 hours ago, PinellasFB said:

Prediction model uses margin of victory, I presume?  Right now, without MoV in the rankings, the rankings are garbage.  At the end of the year they will get better but still need MoV for a power ranking, which what this is supposed to be.  It sounds like FHSAA in their mathematical non-wisdom still chooses to eliminate the SINGLE BIGGEST ACCURACY FACTOR in any power rankings.  Elo Chess, which is a ranking system based upon W-L record only, requires thousands and thousands of games (chess matches) to converge to an acceptable confidence interval.  You only get 10 games in a season and not even close to a sufficient number of games to become accurate.

Not here to quibble about whether we are ranked high enough or not, simply and observation when considering either the benefit of strength of schedule (SOS) or benefit of the margin of victory (MOV) when adjusting the ranking from a previous week.  Two weeks ago, we beat a St. Cloud Bulldog team ranked in the middle (#286) of all schools by 50 (MOV) at their place and they rewarded us by dropping us several points in the rankings.  Then this week, we lost to a TOP 20 team Jones (SOS) in a tight game that went to OT and could have gone the other way by dropping us another 11 spots.  Clearly makes perfect sense.

[Pipe Dreams]

I've always followed the Laz Index: https://www.lazindex.com/fhsaa.php

For some of the newer posters, it's usually very good as the regular season comes to an end. I believe Laz uses the spreads of all the games, and then runs some sort of Monte Carlo simulation to give each team a power rating.

[Nulli Secundus]

30 minutes ago, Pipe Dreams said:

I've always followed the Laz Index: https://www.lazindex.com/fhsaa.php

For some of the newer posters, it's usually very good as the regular season comes to an end. I believe Laz uses the spreads of all the games, and then runs some sort of Monte Carlo simulation to give each team a power rating.

Unfortunately, the FHSAA follows that other site with the same initials as Maxi Pad.

[Cat_Scratch]

On 9/26/2024 at 7:16 PM, Pipe Dreams said:

I've always followed the Laz Index: https://www.lazindex.com/fhsaa.php

For some of the newer posters, it's usually very good as the regular season comes to an end. I believe Laz uses the spreads of all the games, and then runs some sort of Monte Carlo simulation to give each team a power rating.

Preciate you putting in the link. I forgot about Laz when he took a break several years back.

[Dr. D]

For those who are interested, this week's rankings can be found here:  https://fhsaa.com/rankings.aspx?path=football

As predicted by Perspective, Lakeland remained at #4 in the state, while Lake Gibson jumped 18 spots on the heels of a 63-0 shellacking at the hands of Lakeland.  Sheesh!  Only in Florida!

[THAT S--T WAS FUNNY]

5 hours ago, Dr. D said:

For those who are interested, this week's rankings can be found here:  https://fhsaa.com/rankings.aspx?path=football

As predicted by Perspective, Lakeland remained at #4 in the state, while Lake Gibson jumped 18 spots on the heels of a 63-0 shellacking at the hands of Lakeland.  Sheesh!  Only in Florida!

I feel like the FHSAA and Ashton Kutcher are going to jump out of nowhere and tell us we just got "punked"

[Longtime Observer]

I haven't seen it mentioned here, but, we nearly had a dream scenario save us here. Calpreps announced they were closing business due to nonpayment from CBS/Maxpreps. It is the calpreps computer ratings- which included some mystery adjustment as requested by the FHSAA- which the FHSAA uses. But, they quickly announced a resolution and so we are back stuck with these crappy ratings.

[Dr. D]

Just in.  Not much change at the top...

https://fhsaa.com/rankings.aspx?path=football

[Dr. D]

On 9/24/2024 at 2:12 PM, HSfootballguy said:

Josh just explained it on twitter after calling FHSAA.  For football only, MaxPreps uses a prediction model. So, the ranking includes predicting rest of season wins/losses.  FHSAA eliminates that prediction in their rankings, which is why they are different.  At end of season, all the games will be played and no more predictions. The ranking will be closer or the same between the two.

Here we are at the end of the season, and (shocking!) the final MaxPreps rankings and the final FHSAA rankings don't come close to lining up.  For example, here are the Top 10 5A rankings for each:

FHSAA

1. Lakeland
2. Manatee
3. Niceville
4. Lincoln
5. Atlantic
6. Mosley
7. Ponte Vedra
8. Edgewater
9. Tampa Bay Tech
10. STA

MaxPreps

1. Lakeland
2. STA
3. Manatee
4. Tampa Bay Tech
5. Lincoln
6. Edgewater
7. Atlantic
8. Niceville
9. Mosley 
10. Ponte Vedra

So the statement that the FHSAA was using the MaxPreps rankings as we see them is a lie.  And we'll never know what kind of statistical gymnastics the FHSAA used to come up with their rankings.  I'm not claiming a conspiracy, but I have zero confidence in anything they put out.  I guess all we can do now is let it play out on the field.  Sheesh!