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Playoff system point differentials


Airek

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Not sure if anyone saw this article (it was in a variety of publications) on the point differentials between Metro/Suburban v the 'traditional' playoff system that we currently, and previously, have.  I'm sure I'm gonna stir the pot on this again, but I think the data is worth some discussion.

TL;DR: MASSIVE average point differential change comparing the two systems; a.k.a. less competitive state title games.

Metro/Suburban system average winning point margin

2022: 11.86

2023: 14.75

Traditional system average winning point margin

2021: 19.7

2024: 26

Also, as a thought experiment, I took out Chaminade-Madonna's games since they are massive outliers in the data.  That makes each one:

M/S 2022: 8.71

M/S 2023: 8.86

Trad 2021: 19.5

Trad 2024: 24.5

Long story short, we had 2 years of just over 1 score games and now back to 3-4 score games.

Another thing I looked at was how many game were a running clock at the end of the game.

M/S 2022-2023: 1

Trad 2021 & 2024: 4

Shutouts

M/S 2022-2023: 1

Trad 2021& 2024: 3

 

So, if you like competitive games, no running clocks, no shutouts, it's blatantly obvious which is better.

Is Metro/Suburban perfect?  No, nothing ever will be.  Plus I always think I spelled suburban wrong.  Did it lead to better football?  Sure looks like it.

As someone who has been involved with both Metro and Suburban teams that made it to state titles, it just makes sense from a football perspective.  How does it not make sense?  Well the article discusses it and if I spell it out that'll for sure get under some folk's skin, even if it is the truth.

 

No matter what, I think we can all agree that a system where we have no idea how the points are figured is unacceptable and has to change.

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Well-summarized.  And not only were state title games more competitive under Metro-Suburban classes, but the numbers also confirm that the earlier round games were more competitive as well.  Sadly, fact-based decision-making does not seem to factor into FHSAA deliberations, nor does it seem to have an impact on this board.  Why do games have to be competitive, as long as my teams win?  Can't compete in the current environment?  Drop out of the FHSAA or just drop football altogether.  And when hundreds of teams leave the FHSAA, how is that going to promote high school football in Florida?  The 25 teams left can play one another while the rest of the state yawns.

Here's what's not happening in Florida... 1) end of transfers, 2) promotion and relegation, 3) separate public-private classifications.  None of these are happening.  Period.  But when the FHSAA tries to apply a commonsense adjustment like Metro-Suburban, all the sudden, "it's not fair".  Open Division?  You can't force Chaminade to play Venice in the playoffs!  But you can force Indian Rocks Christian (nothing personal) to play in the same class as Chaminade?  (Oh wait, they could just quit football.  So much for the life lessons of perseverance and commitment that football teaches).

I hope my pessimism for the future of Florida high school is misplaced.  Maybe someone will start looking at the big picture rather than trying to protect their self-interests.  Maybe. 

My last rant of 2024.  Sorry.  

 

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Throwing this out for purposes of comparison.   Here are some of the results of the high school football championship games (with point differential in parentheses):

STATE A:

6A  38-24  (14)

5A  56-35  (21)

4A 14-7   (7)

3A 20-7  (13)

2A 52-14  (38)

1AI  38-18   (20)

1AII  34-14  (20)

Private 3A-A  49-28  (21)

Average point differential for State A:  19.25

 

STATE B:

6A D1  50-21  (29)

5A D1 32-20  (12)

6A D2  24-17  (7)

5A D2 38-35  (3)

4A D1   55-21  (34)

4A D2  28-14 (14)

3A D1 48-14 (34)

3A D2  28-0  (28)

2A D1  30-28 (3 OT)   (2)

2A D2  36-29  (7)

1A D1   70-24 (mercy rule 3rd quarter)  (46)

1A D2  54-8 (mercy rule at halftime)   (46)

Average point differential for State B: 22.42

 

STATE C:

1AA  28-26   (2)

2AA  35-28  (7)

3AA  18-14   (4)

4AA  25-23  (2)

5AA  48-7  (41)

6AA  27-21 ()T)  (6)

7AA  42-8   (34)

1A  21-14   (7)

2A  55-19  (36)

3A  42-41  (OT)   (1)

4A  52-34  (18)

5A  68-47  (21)

6A  38-21  (17)

7A  55-27   (28)

OPEN  37-15  (22)

Average point differential for State C:  16.4

 

By the way, State A is Georgia, State B is Texas and State C is California. 

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I grew up in an era in which blowouts were common in Super Bowls. It never occured to me that such outcomes would be cause for calling for dumping the system! I think that as long as you have the best teams playing, it shouldn't matter what the margin of victory is. Of course, we live in a new era in which the Vice President, in running for the Presidency, has advocated for government engineering equivalent outcomes for all. It seems that the entire idea of having competitions, keeping score and crowning one team champion is antithetical to the pursuit of equal outcomes for all. It appears that this point has not been relaized by some.

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Or I could throw these scores out at you:

38-24

42-17

38-10

27-17

39-31

41-21

31-14

Average point differential 17.4 points.

And, yeah, you probably recognize these scores . . . they are indeed the scores of the first seven games of this years College Football Playoffs.   One single-digit point difference game  (the instant classic game between Texas and Arizona State).  Three of the games had a point differential of 20 or more.  And, in theory, these are games being played between the top 12 teams in all of college football. 

Or I could throw out these scores:

34-7

48-21

43-8

31-9

These are all final Super Bowl scores from games played since 2001.  You know, that game played between the two best teams in the NFL. 

Point is, point differential doesn't always tell the whole story, but I understand the argument being made that it is reflective of Florida high school football playoff games not being as competitive as most people would think they would or should be. 

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11 hours ago, Perspective said:

 

And, yeah, you probably recognize these scores . . . they are indeed the scores of the first seven games of this years College Football Playoffs.   One single-digit point difference game  (the instant classic game between Texas and Arizona State).  Three of the games had a point differential of 20 or more.  And, in theory, these are games being played between the top 12 teams in all of college football. 

Or I could throw out these scores:

34-7

48-21

43-8

31-9

These are all final Super Bowl scores from games played since 2001.  You know, that game played between the two best teams in the NFL. 

Point is, point differential doesn't always tell the whole story, but I understand the argument being made that it is reflective of Florida high school football playoff games not being as competitive as most people would think they would or should be. 

It is correct that drawing observations from a small sample size of 4-8 games may suggest some trends, but that sample size would not provide statistically meaningful conclusions.  What is more interesting in this discussion is the mention of the NFL and the NCAA, and the lessons they might provide.

The NFL does everything it can to promote parity -- inverse draft order, salary cap, revenue sharing, inverse order scheduling, roster limits, etc.  With good management and a little luck, a team can go from worst to first in their division.  The NFL is by far the most popular, highest rated, and most financially successful of all professional leagues. 

In the NCAA, the Big 10 and SEC are doing everything they can to separate themselves, financially and otherwise, from the rest of the FBS, i.e. the rich getting richer.  If they are successful, they will always attract the hard core fans, but when the casual fans who support Kennesaw St, Middle Tennessee St, South Alabama, etc. start to tune out because of lack of interest, the TV revenue will eventually dry up, and the big boys will be left with a big financial problem. 

Maybe the "level playing field" that the NFL tries to promote is the better business model, and maybe the better model to follow in promoting high school football in Florida.  Or, hope that the "survival of the fittest" approach that some espouse will do the trick.  

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21 hours ago, Dr. D said:

It is correct that drawing observations from a small sample size of 4-8 games may suggest some trends, but that sample size would not provide statistically meaningful conclusions.  What is more interesting in this discussion is the mention of the NFL and the NCAA, and the lessons they might provide.

The NFL does everything it can to promote parity -- inverse draft order, salary cap, revenue sharing, inverse order scheduling, roster limits, etc.  With good management and a little luck, a team can go from worst to first in their division.  The NFL is by far the most popular, highest rated, and most financially successful of all professional leagues. 

In the NCAA, the Big 10 and SEC are doing everything they can to separate themselves, financially and otherwise, from the rest of the FBS, i.e. the rich getting richer.  If they are successful, they will always attract the hard core fans, but when the casual fans who support Kennesaw St, Middle Tennessee St, South Alabama, etc. start to tune out because of lack of interest, the TV revenue will eventually dry up, and the big boys will be left with a big financial problem. 

Maybe the "level playing field" that the NFL tries to promote is the better business model, and maybe the better model to follow in promoting high school football in Florida.  Or, hope that the "survival of the fittest" approach that some espouse will do the trick.  

College football never relied upon fans of smaller schools like Kennesaw State watching their team on TV. IMO, we're about to see a huge drop in interest as the fans who DID support college football are generally not in support of the current set of dynamics. The push for a large playoff- much like the push to discuss Heisman candidates- has always been from big city, coastal elites who've never truly understood or appreciated college football for what it is (was). They have been getting their way for years now. But the sport is going to lose the large contingent of us who always loved college football precisely because it WASN'T the pros. I could've bought a ticket to the Rose Bowl- which may prove to be as important to the national title as any other playoff game- for under $200 and I live a 30-40 minute commute away. I decided it wasn't worth it.  

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On 12/31/2024 at 9:26 AM, PinellasFB said:

One other thing to consider is a lot of those championship teams had very tough semi-final games compared to their championship games.  Perhaps it was the seeding process that was broken this year?

I'm more inclined to say that is the nature of the football.  The FHSAA record books are littered with many examples of this scenario throughout the decades.

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On 12/30/2024 at 2:42 PM, Dr. D said:

My last rant of 2024.  Sorry.  

 

Here's my first rant of 2025.  Can the FHSAA at least keep accurate archive records!?  The sheer amount of misspelled teams, missing entries, incorrect scores and duplications is utterly ridiculous.  This is just football.  I can't imagine how messed up the other sports may be.  :angry:

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On 1/3/2025 at 7:29 PM, Longtime Observer said:

College football never relied upon fans of smaller schools like Kennesaw State watching their team on TV. IMO, we're about to see a huge drop in interest as the fans who DID support college football are generally not in support of the current set of dynamics. The push for a large playoff- much like the push to discuss Heisman candidates- has always been from big city, coastal elites who've never truly understood or appreciated college football for what it is (was). They have been getting their way for years now. But the sport is going to lose the large contingent of us who always loved college football precisely because it WASN'T the pros. I could've bought a ticket to the Rose Bowl- which may prove to be as important to the national title as any other playoff game- for under $200 and I live a 30-40 minute commute away. I decided it wasn't worth it.  

Interesting, I grew up/lived the first 40ish years of my life about 30 minutes from Pasadena.  Are you East, West or South of Pasadena? (North puts you on Mt Wilson LOL)

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2 hours ago, Mike E said:

Stay safe from the fire! I grew up in the San Gabriel Valley. 

I got my start in football playing Pop Warner for the Rowland Heights Red Devils, about 20 miles SE of Pasadena.

Terrible scenes coming out of southern California.  Thoughts and prayers to all who may have family or friends in that area.

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