Week 8 Playoff Projections & Points System Updates!

[DisabledAccount]

4 minutes ago, badbird said:

someone has to win it but does that mean they are good or deserving?  Also you mentioned teams will attract new players.  I think that's a major issue but a whole different topic and one I don't really care to talk about.  

What i mean is if the class is weak eventually every team will either grow or fall and eventually it will level out 

 

It can't be any worse than 1 good team destroying everyone else at state

[badbird]

3 minutes ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

What i mean is if the class is weak eventually every team will either grow or fall and eventually it will level out 

 

It can't be any worse than 1 good team destroying everyone else at state

only one real blow out last year and that was 7A.  

[DisabledAccount]

4 minutes ago, badbird said:

only one real blow out last year and that was 7A.  

Last year was the best championship games in a while 

[Sharkbait]

55 minutes ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

What i mean is if the class is weak eventually every team will either grow or fall and eventually it will level out 

 

It can't be any worse than 1 good team destroying everyone else at state

I think what we should do is any team that wins state be banned from the playoffs for 20 years that will give teams that never win a chance.  

[DisabledAccount]

2 minutes ago, Sharkbait said:

I think what we should do is any team that wins state be banned from the playoffs for 20 years that will give teams that never win a chance.  

Lol that would be funny but no

[DarterBlue2]

2 hours ago, Sharkbait said:

I think what we should do is any team that wins state be banned from the playoffs for 20 years that will give teams that never win a chance.  

Too harsh. Perhaps a three year ban!!

[MuckCityChamp]

11 hours ago, BrowardHandicapper said:

HCs are part of a team, path to states and will ultimately have to take accountability for the own mistakes in some of these cases....

Exactly. A lot of them didn't analyze the system. 

[MuckCityChamp]

6 hours ago, badbird said:

Sure BTW could have scheduled smarter.  I get the point.  However should we have a system where possibly the best team in the class misses the playoffs due to bad scheduling?  I'm only using BTW because it is the best example.  I honestly could care less if they win another title.  

It's also possible that Booker T. Is just not the best team in the class this year. 

[badbird]

1 minute ago, MuckCityChamp said:

It's also possible that Booker T. Is just not the best team in the class this year. 

We will never know 

[MuckCityChamp]

Just now, badbird said:

We will never know 

Probably won't bring that they have now lost 4 games. 

[gatorman-uf]

Josh,

I asked the question from the very beginning (check the archives), how did the old system discourage playing a tough out of district opponent? Nobody has ever answered it, because simply the answer does not exist. If you lost the game, you lost, but than you focused on district play. Did all games matter, no. But now, things as a coach that you cannot control matter that shouldn't. Trinity Christian beat Bolles, but now with Trinity Christian having to forfeit the game, it not only affects Trinity, but now effects everyone else as well. Is that really fair to those teams that TC plays if that affects what bracket TC is in?

This happened in basketball over 8 years ago, a boys basketball was very good. They were dominating for their classification. They ended up finding out that they had used an ineligible player for all of their games. They paid the fine, but were allowed to play in the district tournament (but having forfeited all the games). They went from a #1 seed to a #5 (in a 5 team district). They beat the #4 team. They then had to play the formerly #2 team in the semi-finals of district play. They won. Now, think of the #2 team, they are eliminated in the semi-finals instead of the finals (thus missing state playoffs if they had been the #2 seed). I don't like when things off the court affect the results on the court.

I was told numerous times that the advantage of the "new" system was that teams would play a more challenging schedule and be rewarded for it. Let's be honest, the FHSAA screwed it up. You don't actually receive a reward for playing a "tough" schedule. If you play a tough schedule and go 6-4, it will not be better than play some barely above cupcake power teams, winning, and going 10-0. Sure, you aren't ready for the playoffs, but you are in the playoffs, play the easiest seed, and probably get a home game or 2. After that who cares.

Again, we tried solving a problem that didn't exist. The best teams make it to the state championships, but they still had blowouts, this new playoff system won't fix that. The reality is that we have a bunch of teams that are just better than the classification they are in. We could have kept the old system, allowed good teams to move up until they are no longer dominating, but merely competitive. We should force bad teams down until they are competitive.

Do I think there is a class that would make STA merely competitive? No, but we could try. 

 

[DisabledAccount]

6 hours ago, gatorman-uf said:

Josh,

I asked the question from the very beginning (check the archives), how did the old system discourage playing a tough out of district opponent? Nobody has ever answered it, because simply the answer does not exist. If you lost the game, you lost, but than you focused on district play. Did all games matter, no. But now, things as a coach that you cannot control matter that shouldn't. Trinity Christian beat Bolles, but now with Trinity Christian having to forfeit the game, it not only affects Trinity, but now effects everyone else as well. Is that really fair to those teams that TC plays if that affects what bracket TC is in?

This happened in basketball over 8 years ago, a boys basketball was very good. They were dominating for their classification. They ended up finding out that they had used an ineligible player for all of their games. They paid the fine, but were allowed to play in the district tournament (but having forfeited all the games). They went from a #1 seed to a #5 (in a 5 team district). They beat the #4 team. They then had to play the formerly #2 team in the semi-finals of district play. They won. Now, think of the #2 team, they are eliminated in the semi-finals instead of the finals (thus missing state playoffs if they had been the #2 seed). I don't like when things off the court affect the results on the court.

I was told numerous times that the advantage of the "new" system was that teams would play a more challenging schedule and be rewarded for it. Let's be honest, the FHSAA screwed it up. You don't actually receive a reward for playing a "tough" schedule. If you play a tough schedule and go 6-4, it will not be better than play some barely above cupcake power teams, winning, and going 10-0. Sure, you aren't ready for the playoffs, but you are in the playoffs, play the easiest seed, and probably get a home game or 2. After that who cares.

Again, we tried solving a problem that didn't exist. The best teams make it to the state championships, but they still had blowouts, this new playoff system won't fix that. The reality is that we have a bunch of teams that are just better than the classification they are in. We could have kept the old system, allowed good teams to move up until they are no longer dominating, but merely competitive. We should force bad teams down until they are competitive.

Do I think there is a class that would make STA merely competitive? No, but we could try. 

 

I stated earlier why i hated the old system 

 

1 the old system meant only district games meant anything which is stupid

 

2 the district alignment determined who hosted was stupid, that old system gave 4-6 Lincoln the second round at home against 9-1 Columbia just because Lincoln was in district 1, now we beat them by 37 but point is they didn't deserve that home game, we already played at Lincoln in week 2 and beat them at their place that system was stupid and made no sense 

 

3 we always had the same exact matchups every year, we need a bloody refreshment not playing same matchups for 5 straight years

 

4 the old system favored teams in 3 team districts and allowed teams like Eastside and Leon in playoffs while Miami Central missed out yet would have beaten those 2 by a combined 140-0

[Zoe Boy]

9 hours ago, MuckCityChamp said:

It's also possible that Booker T. Is just not the best team in the class this year. 

Hard to tell .. The only 4a team they played  they blew them out... They not elite but still good to run through 4a playoffs imo and they went toe to toe with everybody they loss to besides yesterday was their worst lost with losing their qb... Man it’s gonna be hard to be Carol City and Jones which I believe if they can beat one of them they would probably sneak in...

[DisabledAccount]

6 minutes ago, Zoe Boy said:

Hard to tell .. The only 4a team they played  they blew them out... They not elite but still good to run through 4a playoffs imo and they went toe to toe with everybody they loss to besides yesterday was their worst lost with losing their qb... Man it’s gonna be hard to be Carol City and Jones which I believe if they can beat one of them they would probably sneak in...

I thought it was Carol City and Evans? 

[gatorman-uf]

45 minutes ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

I stated earlier why i hated the old system 

 

1 the old system meant only district games meant anything which is stupid

 

2 the district alignment determined who hosted was stupid, that old system gave 4-6 Lincoln the second round at home against 9-1 Columbia just because Lincoln was in district 1, now we beat them by 37 but point is they didn't deserve that home game, we already played at Lincoln in week 2 and beat them at their place that system was stupid and made no sense 

 

3 we always had the same exact matchups every year, we need a bloody refreshment not playing same matchups for 5 straight years

 

4 the old system favored teams in 3 team districts and allowed teams like Eastside and Leon in playoffs while Miami Central missed out yet would have beaten those 2 by a combined 140-0

Sigh, if I was talking to you, I would have labeled it as such.

But fine... No, the district games meant who gets into the playoffs. Your games against Suwannee, Gainesville, and Buchholz still meant something as they go towards your record (unless you are saying that records mean nothing than take down that meaningless phrase at the end of your signature about "Most Winningest team in North Florida history" and stop touting your winning percentage). Heck, never bring up a streak against Suwannee or Buchholz or Gainesville as obviously those games did not matter before this year. Every other sport in Florida has non-district games, they use these games for various reason including getting better, better gates, cheaper travel. Football is no different. The reason why district games mattered is that you wanted the best teams from the district and your classification. The classification/district system is based on putting teams of the relative same size and relative geographical location into classes and district. It is thought that population is a more fair to ensure equity.

 2) The old system had teams flip every year. So yes, one year the district champion on the top of the bracket one year would host and than the next year, it would be the district champion on the bottom of the bracket. The fact that Lincoln got to host was simply a reflection of that. 

3) You haven't faced the same team in the playoffs for 5 straight years. You played:
Lincoln: 3 times in the playoffs from 2009-2016.
Bartram Trail: 4 times in the playoffs from 2011-1016 (6 years). And one of those times was in the regional finals, when 6 other teams had to be eliminated before you faced them. 
Also the reason under the old system you might play the same teams each time is travel. Coaches/Schools didn't want to have to have teams travel 2.5 hours for a 1st round game. 

4) 3 team district still exist. This system did NOTHING to fix that. The only difference is that the runner-up from a 3 team district doesn't make. Heck, Fort White qualified for the playoffs one year in a TWO team district. This doesn't fix it. Again, all the problems you have with the old system aren't fixed in this new system that is the problem.

-------------------------------
Again, you want more competitive weekly games. Move good teams up until they have to play other good teams, move bad teams down until they face other bad teams. 

[MuckCityChamp]

1 hour ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

I stated earlier why i hated the old system 

 

1 the old system meant only district games meant anything which is stupid

 

2 the district alignment determined who hosted was stupid, that old system gave 4-6 Lincoln the second round at home against 9-1 Columbia just because Lincoln was in district 1, now we beat them by 37 but point is they didn't deserve that home game, we already played at Lincoln in week 2 and beat them at their place that system was stupid and made no sense 

 

3 we always had the same exact matchups every year, we need a bloody refreshment not playing same matchups for 5 straight years

 

4 the old system favored teams in 3 team districts and allowed teams like Eastside and Leon in playoffs while Miami Central missed out yet would have beaten those 2 by a combined 140-0

Exactly. You can pretty much know who you are playing in the playoffs as soon as the districts are made. 

[DarterBlue2]

2 hours ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

I thought it was Carol City and Evans? 

That is correct. They will beat Evans easily. But will struggle to beat Carol City.

[DisabledAccount]

1 hour ago, gatorman-uf said:

Sigh, if I was talking to you, I would have labeled it as such.

But fine... No, the district games meant who gets into the playoffs. Your games against Suwannee, Gainesville, and Buchholz still meant something as they go towards your record (unless you are saying that records mean nothing than take down that meaningless phrase at the end of your signature about "Most Winningest team in North Florida history" and stop touting your winning percentage). Heck, never bring up a streak against Suwannee or Buchholz or Gainesville as obviously those games did not matter before this year. Every other sport in Florida has non-district games, they use these games for various reason including getting better, better gates, cheaper travel. Football is no different. The reason why district games mattered is that you wanted the best teams from the district and your classification. The classification/district system is based on putting teams of the relative same size and relative geographical location into classes and district. It is thought that population is a more fair to ensure equity.

 2) The old system had teams flip every year. So yes, one year the district champion on the top of the bracket one year would host and than the next year, it would be the district champion on the bottom of the bracket. The fact that Lincoln got to host was simply a reflection of that. 

3) You haven't faced the same team in the playoffs for 5 straight years. You played:
Lincoln: 3 times in the playoffs from 2009-2016.
Bartram Trail: 4 times in the playoffs from 2011-1016 (6 years). And one of those times was in the regional finals, when 6 other teams had to be eliminated before you faced them. 
Also the reason under the old system you might play the same teams each time is travel. Coaches/Schools didn't want to have to have teams travel 2.5 hours for a 1st round game. 

4) 3 team district still exist. This system did NOTHING to fix that. The only difference is that the runner-up from a 3 team district doesn't make. Heck, Fort White qualified for the playoffs one year in a TWO team district. This doesn't fix it. Again, all the problems you have with the old system aren't fixed in this new system that is the problem.

-------------------------------
Again, you want more competitive weekly games. Move good teams up until they have to play other good teams, move bad teams down until they face other bad teams. 

You didn't understand what i meant 

 

Those games Should count 

 

I want to know beating Gainesville, Suwannee and buchholz could affect them in playoffs so the old system where only district games mattered was stupid 

 

 

I still think flipping is stupid idea,  it should be highest seed

 

It effectively ends up being same or almost same teams every year 

 

Show me 1 district in 5-8a that is 2 team

[badbird]

why should playing teams in 8A determine if you make the 1A playoffs?  That would be like having Appalachian State play all ACC games and then try to determine if they should be in the FCS playoffs. 

 

There are still 3 team districts in 5A-8A  I know of at least one and don't care to look up the rest.  So you could still have a 2-8 team in the playoffs. 

[DisabledAccount]

Just now, badbird said:

why should playing teams in 8A determine if you make the 1A playoffs?  That would be like having Appalachian State play all ACC games and then try to determine if they should be in the FCS playoffs.  

Why should only 4 games count for playoffs? 

 

Explain how the heck that makes sense

 

[badbird]

3 minutes ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

Why should only 4 games count for playoffs? 

 

Explain how the heck that makes sense

 

then put everyone in a 8 team district with people in their own class and now 7 count and you can play 3 rivals.  Or put them in an 11 team district and now they all count.

[Sharkbait]

Columbiafan I don't recall you being all in for this playoff system when the idea was first introduced.  If Columbia was on the outside looking in would you still be all for it as you are now.  Nobody really liked the idea of teams with losing records making the playoffs but we still may have that and teams that have always made the playoffs and scheduled tough teams may now miss the playoffs.  I think we may see some crazy lopsided scores come playoff time.

[BrowardHandicapper]

REGION 4A-4

Point Average	School
44	University School
41.5	Key West
38.5	Monsignor Pace
37.5	North Broward Prep
37	Gulliver Prep
36.33	Washington (Miami)
35.8	Glades Central
33	Pine Crest
26.2	Keys Gate
27.5	Miami Edison
25	Coral Springs Charter
24	Immaculata-LaSalle

PROJECTED SEEDS
No. 1 University School
No. 2 Key West
No. 3 Monsignor Pace
No. 4 North Broward Prep

PROJECTED PAIRINGS
No. 4 North Broward Prep vs. No. 1 University School
No. 3 Monsignor Pace vs. No. 2 Key West

 

I understand BTW has Carol City on their plate now and it is a must win to stay alive but what about the rest of region?

Can remaining results help or hurt BTW's race to the 2017 playoffs?

 

From what I see we can pretty much eliminate Keys Gate on down in this Region as of now.   

University School  (Everglades Prep) and Monsignor Pace (Edison) both should roll tonight.

Fairly confident Key West will beat NBP tonight by double digits.  Who would BTW likely route for in that Key West or NBP? 

Gulliver Prep goes to 3A Playoff hopeful  Kings Academy tonight.  That is a toss up to me. Lots of points.

Glades Central I believe will host Boynton Beach tonight. Not sure if this is a do or die scenario yet for a 3-2 GC team?

Pine Crest has to win 4 straight to have a prayer,  including Gulliver Prep and NBP back to back - likely won't work..

 

If Gulliver wins and NBP loses , I would say NBP may be facing the music?

 

 

 

[DisabledAccount]

33 minutes ago, Sharkbait said:

Columbiafan I don't recall you being all in for this playoff system when the idea was first introduced.  If Columbia was on the outside looking in would you still be all for it as you are now.  Nobody really liked the idea of teams with losing records making the playoffs but we still may have that and teams that have always made the playoffs and scheduled tough teams may now miss the playoffs.  I think we may see some crazy lopsided scores come playoff time.

Not really about liking this one but i always hated the old one 

[Zoe Boy]

12 hours ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

I thought it was Carol City and Evans? 

Could be Evans but I sworn it was jones