Week 8 Playoff Projections & Points System Updates!

[DisabledAccount]

8 minutes ago, gwdrum75 said:

Personally, I would love to see them reduce the amount of classes.....and while there at it, separate privates & publics.

Beyond that, my biggest issue with the new system is the fact that one team's transgression can have a negative impact on 9 other team's seasons, through no fault of their own.

I agree with seperating privates and publics

 

Other states have done it, so should we 

[MuckCityChamp]

1 hour ago, badbird said:

and do you think many people will play them?  1-4A is not decided on the field.  At least 5-8A you have a chance to decide it on the field and get in.  

Yes I do. I think there are more schools out there that would say yes to BTW. Honeslty, I don't think many of the usual power schools took making their schedules serious. They sat back and said, we will see who reaches out to us. Whereas, you had those mid tier schools really dissected the point system and created a schedule to their favor. And its showing with the first 2 weeks of playoff releases. There are still 4 weeks to go, so I really think it will work itself out. 

[SportsNut25]

1 hour ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

I agree with seperating privates and publics

 

Other states have done it, so should we 

Public/Private split is not going to solve anything. Actually, it would make things worse. 

If you want to do anything, then create an open class like CA has. The major powerhouses would play in that class no matter if they are public, charter or private. 

[DisabledAccount]

23 minutes ago, SportsNut25 said:

Public/Private split is not going to solve anything. Actually, it would make things worse. 

If you want to do anything, then create an open class like CA has. The major powerhouses would play in that class no matter if they are public, charter or private. 

Whatever gets sta out of 7a lol

 

I don't understand how a class ends up with 1 private 

[Sharkbait]

This is straight garbage.  Jefferson County at 3-3 with wins vs FAMU , Hamilton, and John Paul (all very bad teams) is in first place over Blountstown, PSJ, and Cottondale.  I hope that is a mistake because otherwise the integrity of the game is lost. FHSAA looks to have totally screwed up.

[Zoe Boy]

6 hours ago, badbird said:

great system we have right Columbia fan.  Second best team in 4A is currently out of the playoffs.  I hope they don't make it.  They are 2-3 with games vs Chaminade, Carol City and Evans left.  They probably have to win all 3 to get in.  

There actually 3-3 

[badbird]

I saw that just didn't feel like changing it lol

[Zoe Boy]

1 minute ago, badbird said:

I saw that just didn't feel like changing it lol

Lol they beat Coral Gables 8a Dillard 6a and Edison.... Lost 3 close games so if they win the next 3 they will make it.... Man that schedule is tough...

[badbird]

yes they will but isn't it pathetic that we have to hope the second best team in 4A maybe the best team in 4A has to beat Chaminade and Carol City  in back to back weeks to make the playoffs.  That sounds like a great state title game BTW vs Chaminade or BTW vs Carol City and they have to win both of them.

[DarterBlue2]

1 hour ago, badbird said:

yes they will but isn't it pathetic that we have to hope the second best team in 4A maybe the best team in 4A has to beat Chaminade and Carol City  in back to back weeks to make the playoffs.  That sounds like a great state title game BTW vs Chaminade or BTW vs Carol City and they have to win both of them.

This is certainly of the things in the new system that coaching staffs will have to adjust to when scheduling. Playing tough teams can backfire big time now, particularly in the lower classes that don't have districts. If you play the best, you have to beat them or be on the outside looking in. 

[badbird]

40 minutes ago, DarterBlue2 said:

This is certainly of the things in the new system that coaching staffs will have to adjust to when scheduling. Playing tough teams can backfire big time now, particularly in the lower classes that don't have districts. If you play the best, you have to beat them or be on the outside looking in. 

so that will make it even harder for good teams to put together a schedule.  No one will want to play them because they can play the worst team in the state and get more points for winning that game.  I've been at a few good schools in my day as you know and had to put together a schedule.  It was really tough before to find 10 teams that would play us.  Going to be impossible next time if they don't adjust the points big time.

[DarterBlue2]

27 minutes ago, badbird said:

so that will make it even harder for good teams to put together a schedule.  No one will want to play them because they can play the worst team in the state and get more points for winning that game.  I've been at a few good schools in my day as you know and had to put together a schedule.  It was really tough before to find 10 teams that would play us.  Going to be impossible next time if they don't adjust the points big time.

I agree. If we end up keeping a points system, then adjustments will have to be made. If you play against and lose to a "National Caliber" type team, especially if you keep the game close, you should not get fewer points than if you beat down Cypress Creek by 50 points. If those adjustments are not made, scheduling will become a big issue, particularly in parts of the state where there are not that many elite teams. 

Another solution may be to create a "super class" where high caliber teams can choose to play in. Not sure if I like this idea though, as I could see a number of problems coming from this.

[badbird]

There are some regions where teams right now will get into the playoffs with under 33 points.  That means if I scheduled right I could go 0-10 and make the playoffs.  Wildwood being #2 in a region and BTW being out just shows you how messed up it is in 1A thru 4A.  It might work itself out but this just shows what could happen and it will if the system doesn't get adjusted. 

[muckboy561]

11 hours ago, MuckCityChamp said:

Booker T. made their schedule just like everyone else. They filled it with some good teams and failed to beat any of them so far. Win your next 3 and they will get in. Simple as that. 

Facts! 

[muckboy561]

I think the point system will backfire due to Head Coaches will be buddy buddy and scheduling and helping their buddy out and some HCs will not reach to some schools just because 

[DarterBlue2]

2 hours ago, badbird said:

There are some regions where teams right now will get into the playoffs with under 33 points.  That means if I scheduled right I could go 0-10 and make the playoffs.  Wildwood being #2 in a region and BTW being out just shows you how messed up it is in 1A thru 4A.  It might work itself out but this just shows what could happen and it will if the system doesn't get adjusted. 

Exactly. Even if it works itself out this year, if kept the way it is without some very thoughtful adjustments, it is only a matter of time before we get absurd situations. I am not sure whether I trust the FHSAA to do the kind of analysis necessary to fix things in one or two seasons. Hope I am wrong on this. 

[SportsNut25]

1 hour ago, muckboy561 said:

Head Coaches will be buddy buddy and scheduling and helping their buddy out and some HCs will not reach to some schools just because 

This has already been going on for years ....

[Joshua Wilson]

10 hours ago, DarterBlue2 said:

Exactly. Even if it works itself out this year, if kept the way it is without some very thoughtful adjustments, it is only a matter of time before we get absurd situations. I am not sure whether I trust the FHSAA to do the kind of analysis necessary to fix things in one or two seasons. Hope I am wrong on this. 

FHSAA is already considering a variety adjustments possibly for next year and when a full reclassification comes in 2019. 

[DarterBlue2]

Just now, Joshua Wilson said:

FHSAA is already considering a variety adjustments possibly for next year and when a full reclassification comes in 2019. 

Josh, I am very glad to hear that. The points based system is not bad per se. However, an analysis of how it is actually working this year through 7 weeks brings up some concerns. 

Hopefully, some fixes will be implemented for next year and beyond.  

[BrowardHandicapper]

11 hours ago, muckboy561 said:

I think the point system will backfire due to Head Coaches will be buddy buddy and scheduling and helping their buddy out and some HCs will not reach to some schools just because 

HCs are part of a team, path to states and will ultimately have to take accountability for the own mistakes in some of these cases....

[WhatsUpDoc]

Mariner is 0-2 in their district but they are projected as a seed over another district team that is 2-0 in their district? Projections should not be based off current points because some teams get a lot of their points in the first half of the season while other teams gain many points and surpass other teams in the second half of the season…

[Joshua Wilson]

1 hour ago, WhatsUpDoc said:

Mariner is 0-2 in their district but they are projected as a seed over another district team that is 2-0 in their district? Projections should not be based off current points because some teams get a lot of their points in the first half of the season while other teams gain many points and surpass other teams in the second half of the season…

You have to go with what is there. Tomorrow night will change this again. It is very possible that we can have a second place team in a district miss the playoffs while the thrid place team makes it. All about SOS.

[badbird]

1 hour ago, Joshua Wilson said:

You have to go with what is there. Tomorrow night will change this again. It is very possible that we can have a second place team in a district miss the playoffs while the thrid place team makes it. All about SOS.

Josh it isn't really about SOS.  It is about how your opponents scheduled and how they did.   It doesn't matter how good a team really is.  BTW at 3-3 gives you less points than a Wildwood at 5-0.  Logically one would think BTW should give you more points if you play them but since BTW has a tough schedule and Wildwood has a cupcake schedule it would have been better to play Wildwood.  

[Joshua Wilson]

11 minutes ago, badbird said:

Josh it isn't really about SOS.  It is about how your opponents scheduled and how they did.   It doesn't matter how good a team really is.  BTW at 3-3 gives you less points than a Wildwood at 5-0.  Logically one would think BTW should give you more points if you play them but since BTW has a tough schedule and Wildwood has a cupcake schedule it would have been better to play Wildwood.  

You want to keep focusing on BTW...however let me give you two other teams that were in this same boat with BTW and they are seemingly doing alright: Madison County and Cocoa. All of Madison County's opponents except two are at least 3A or above. Madison has a win over a very quality 7A team (hey where are you @ColumbiaHighFan2017class?). BTW has to win a couple of those games. You can't say schedule games and expect to get in the playoffs if you can't win those games. Yeah, maybe there should have been bonus points for playing a team in a higher classification on top of bonus points for those teams you played that made the playoffs. But BTW has to win some. Plus BTW could have jumped to 5A-16 and had at least 6 guaranteed games. BTW had choices.They could have easily played in 5A. They gambled on it.

[DisabledAccount]

24 minutes ago, Joshua Wilson said:

You want to keep focusing on BTW...however let me give you two other teams that were in this same boat with BTW and they are seemingly doing alright: Madison County and Cocoa. All of Madison County's opponents except two are at least 3A or above. Madison has a win over a very quality 7A team (hey where are you @ColumbiaHighFan2017class?). BTW has to win a couple of those games. You can't say schedule games and expect to get in the playoffs if you can't win those games. Yeah, maybe there should have been bonus points for playing a team in a higher classification on top of bonus points for those teams you played that made the playoffs. But BTW has to win some. Plus BTW could have jumped to 5A-16 and had at least 6 guaranteed games. BTW had choices.They could have easily played in 5A. They gambled on it.

I don't think BTW makes that mistake next cycle

 

They probably move up next cycle in 2019