Fhsaa Points vs Laz Index vs Max Preps 1A , 2A, 3A, 4A

[DisabledAccount]

9 minutes ago, nolebull813 said:

They are for any team who knows how to put a helmet on. This ain't the late 90's early 2000's

 

So you have to be winning state to not be a pushover? 

 

They probably second best team in 2a north behind only university Christian 

[Sharkbait]

Hey Badbird thanks for putting this together.  It gives a pretty clear layout of things along with some good insights.  A lot of things will sort out this week.  

[nolebull813]

39 minutes ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

So you have to be winning state to not be a pushover? 

 

They probably second best team in 2a north behind only university Christian 

So! 2A is horrible on a state level. The best 2A teams wouldn't sniff the state top 50. 

There are state champs from Vermont and Nebraska who would lose by 70 against average teams from Florida who miss the playoffs. 

2A champs are just the tallest midget in the crowd

[DisabledAccount]

2 minutes ago, nolebull813 said:

So! 2A is horrible on a state level. The best 2A teams wouldn't sniff the state top 50. 

There are state champs from Vermont and Nebraska who would lose by 70 against average teams from Florida who miss the playoffs. 

2A champs are just the tallest midget in the crowd

So Champagnat not top 50 in state? 

[nolebull813]

9 hours ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

So Champagnat not top 50 in state? 

No they are not. 

I took a scroll through all the classes and would have Champagnat as the 67th best team. 

They would be number 1 in 2A but 67th in Florida. That's how bad 2A is. 

Maxpreps has Champagnat 52nd in Florida so I'm not the only one who thinks 2A is hot garbage 

[Roadkillav8r]

What exactly is the Laz index, what is used to rank teams?  I ask because it seems, based on Badbirds very good summary, that Laz has it figured out better than Max Preps and I don't trust the new points system in place after the Baker Chipley game. Head to head match-ups must matter, particularly for home field advantage in the playoffs.

[nolebull813]

33 minutes ago, Roadkillav8r said:

What exactly is the Laz index, what is used to rank teams?  I ask because it seems, based on Badbirds very good summary, that Laz has it figured out better than Max Preps and I don't trust the new points system in place after the Baker Chipley game. Head to head match-ups must matter, particularly for home field advantage in the playoffs.

It's what's inside the toilet bowl the morning after chili night 

[DisabledAccount]

21 minutes ago, nolebull813 said:

It's what's inside the toilet bowl the morning after chili night 

Is there any ranking you actually trust 

[nolebull813]

3 minutes ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

Is there any ranking you actually trust 

Rankings are useless. What real purpose do they serve except to talk about something during the week? They don't have anything to do with anything when it comes to who makes the playoffs and who wins anything. 

The only rankings that matter are college football playoffs and BCS at large bids 

[DisabledAccount]

1 minute ago, nolebull813 said:

Rankings are useless. What real purpose do they serve except to talk about something during the week? They don't have anything to do with anything when it comes to who makes the playoffs and who wins anything. 

The only rankings that matter are college football playoffs and BCS at large bids 

Well talking about rankings is more interesting then talking about games from a month ago like they were played last night lol 

 

And yes it has no impact on playoffs but it's interesting to see where people view the teams at bc different people will see the same teams differently 

[Sharkbait]

1 hour ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

Well talking about rankings is more interesting then talking about games from a month ago like they were played last night lol 

 

And yes it has no impact on playoffs but it's interesting to see where people view the teams at bc different people will see the same teams differently 

The problem is nobody can see all the teams.  You see a team on paper that won by 28 but what you don't see is that the coaches of the 2 teams that played are good friends and the coach of the better team could have won by 60+ but held his kids back to not embarrass the other team.  You may have a passing team playing in 25kt winds that doen't beat someone as bad as they would on a calm night.  Computers don't see it and some guy crunching numbers 200 miles away doesn't see it.  They are fun to talk about nut don't mean much else.

[Roadkillav8r]

We are all fans of high school football because it's fun.  Rankings, and trying to rank teenage boys is foolhardy at best, just make it more fun for those of us who like talking about it and can't play it any more.  But my question was what data or formulae does Laz use for his basis of comparison?   He might use how many tubas the band has or which school has the best looking cheerleaders.   Looking at the rankings and the way it changes week to week I can't figure out what he uses.

[badbird]

4 hours ago, Sharkbait said:

The problem is nobody can see all the teams.  You see a team on paper that won by 28 but what you don't see is that the coaches of the 2 teams that played are good friends and the coach of the better team could have won by 60+ but held his kids back to not embarrass the other team.  You may have a passing team playing in 25kt winds that doen't beat someone as bad as they would on a calm night.  Computers don't see it and some guy crunching numbers 200 miles away doesn't see it.  They are fun to talk about nut don't mean much else.

rankings are subjective but anyone with a pulse  would say BTW is at least a top 4 seed in their region except the fhsaa.

[DisabledAccount]

1 minute ago, Roadkillav8r said:

We are all fans of high school football because it's fun.  Rankings, and trying to rank teenage boys is foolhardy at best, just make it more fun for those of us who like talking about it and can't play it any more.  But my question was what data or formulae does Laz use for his basis of comparison?   He might use how many tubas the band has or which school has the best looking cheerleaders.   Looking at the rankings and the way it changes week to week I can't figure out what he uses.

He uses a computer agurithrm but I'm not sure what goes into that

 

Similar to pinkos

[Roadkillav8r]

I'm gonna stick with using the number of flag twirlers in the band divided by the number of tuba players till proven otherwise.

[Sharkbait]

Here is my top five  in my Lard Azz Index

 

1. Sneads

2. Baker

3. Port St Joe

4. Franklin County

5. Taylor County

These are the best concession stands I have been to in the past few years.  Sneads gets top spot for Sausage and grilled onion BBQ pork and they bring it to the stands to sell it so you leave your seat.  Baker has a good selection and the best hot chocolate which gets a lot of points because the 3 times I've been there it has been in the 30s.  PSJ for shrimp gumbo, fish dinners and smoked leg quarters they would be higher but all the stands carry different items.  Franklin County usually has fried or boiled shrimp for big games and that will all ways make my top 5.  Taylor County is efficient clean and friendly wirh a good selection.

[badbird]

15 minutes ago, Sharkbait said:

Here is my top five  in my Lard Azz Index

 

1. Sneads

2. Baker

3. Port St Joe

4. Franklin County

5. Taylor County

These are the best concession stands I have been to in the past few years.  Sneads gets top spot for Sausage and grilled onion BBQ pork and they bring it to the stands to sell it so you leave your seat.  Baker has a good selection and the best hot chocolate which gets a lot of points because the 3 times I've been there it has been in the 30s.  PSJ for shrimp gumbo, fish dinners and smoked leg quarters they would be higher but all the stands carry different items.  Franklin County usually has fried or boiled shrimp for big games and that will all ways make my top 5.  Taylor County is efficient clean and friendly wirh a good selection.

I guess Franklin county doesn't have shrimp often 

[Roadkillav8r]

5 hours ago, Sharkbait said:

Here is my top five  in my Lard Azz Index

 

1. Sneads

2. Baker

3. Port St Joe

4. Franklin County

5. Taylor County

These are the best concession stands I have been to in the past few years.  Sneads gets top spot for Sausage and grilled onion BBQ pork and they bring it to the stands to sell it so you leave your seat.  Baker has a good selection and the best hot chocolate which gets a lot of points because the 3 times I've been there it has been in the 30s.  PSJ for shrimp gumbo, fish dinners and smoked leg quarters they would be higher but all the stands carry different items.  Franklin County usually has fried or boiled shrimp for big games and that will all ways make my top 5.  Taylor County is efficient clean and friendly wirh a good selection.

Damn, you win.  Beats tubas and flag twirlers any day.   How bout boiled peanuts, anybody got some of those?

[Roadkillav8r]

Niceville sells beer brats now

[badbird]

On 10/19/2017 at 8:02 PM, badbird said:

Overall thoughts in 3A

major blunders right now

Oxbridge a #3 seed and probably the best or second best team in the state.

Pierson Taylor in the playoffs and MCC out

St Andrews as a 2 seed and Benjamin out who will probably put a running clock on them this week.

Benjamin beat St Andrews 48-3 haha

[Dan in Daytona]

19 hours ago, Roadkillav8r said:

What exactly is the Laz index, what is used to rank teams?  I ask because it seems, based on Badbirds very good summary, that Laz has it figured out better than Max Preps and I don't trust the new points system in place after the Baker Chipley game. Head to head match-ups must matter, particularly for home field advantage in the playoffs.

Roadkill, I'll volunteer some info on Larry's website. He's a long time numbers guy. Think he started the Laz Index in 1999. Like Maxpreps, Calpreps, Pinko's, and the earlier computer polls started decades ago ( Dunkel Index, Jeff Sagarin ) they all analyze ball scores and rate teams accordingly. He's one of the 6-12 Flavarsity message board guys who try and hook up at the FHSAA Football Championships in December. We usually go for food and drinks between the games. Checkout his website below. His Florida High School power rating since 1999 are eye opening. Also Top 100 in wins, playoff games, percentages, etc,etc.  Click the "Florida's Best" at the top of the page for the real in state powerhouses, not the flash in the pan teams of 2 or 3 years.......great website for a numbers guy.   

http://lazindex.com/index.php

[BrowardHandicapper]

4 hours ago, badbird said:

Benjamin beat St Andrews 48-3 haha

 Benjamin is definitely a worthy 3A playoff team and I would probably put them at the distant two spot in that Region in reality.  They would blast Everglades Prep and probably beat AHD by at least a TD right now.  Benjamin will play @ Key West on 10/26 and Kings Academy on 11/3.  Even though Kings Academy smacked Key West tonight 41-21 I think Benjamin has much better shot winning versus Kings Academy then Key West @ Key West.  

Anyone that has played @ Key West in recent years knows exactly what I am talking about.

[Roadkillav8r]

Dan, I'm thoroughly familiar with his website and find it very illuminating and I think he does a good job.  My curiosity really comes from why he has Niceville ranked so high.  What has he seen that I haven't seen.

[badbird]

32 minutes ago, Roadkillav8r said:

Dan, I'm thoroughly familiar with his website and find it very illuminating and I think he does a good job.  My curiosity really comes from why he has Niceville ranked so high.  What has he seen that I haven't seen.

He hasn't seen anything lol the computer has.  His site does not count out of state games which is why Niceville is much higher on his site than it should be.  In my opinion Niceville over the years the has probably been ranked by the laz index a little higher than it should be on his site probably because there are less connectors from the panhandle to the whole state than most parts of Florida.  Meaning Niceville's 2 main connectors to the rest of the state are Lincoln and East Ridge this year and they blew both out.  

[DarterBlue2]

6 hours ago, Dan in Daytona said:

Roadkill, I'll volunteer some info on Larry's website. He's a long time numbers guy. Think he started the Laz Index in 1999. Like Maxpreps, Calpreps, Pinko's, and the earlier computer polls started decades ago ( Dunkel Index, Jeff Sagarin ) they all analyze ball scores and rate teams accordingly. He's one of the 6-12 Flavarsity message board guys who try and hook up at the FHSAA Football Championships in December. We usually go for food and drinks between the games. Checkout his website below. His Florida High School power rating since 1999 are eye opening. Also Top 100 in wins, playoff games, percentages, etc,etc.  Click the "Florida's Best" at the top of the page for the real in state powerhouses, not the flash in the pan teams of 2 or 3 years.......great website for a numbers guy.   

http://lazindex.com/index.php

Laz's method takes the results from each week for every team in the state. His algorithms look for connectivity which help determine his rankings. As an example, say a Central Florida area team plays a Panhandle team (happens even if not often), and another Central Florida area team plays a South Florida team, then connectivity between the two Central Florida teams (either through a game against each other or through a common opponent) will help evaluate the relative strength of the Panhandle teams vis a viz the South Florida teams. Based on this, Laz's system tends to work best after week five when there is a more reasonable basis as a few of these out of region games will have occurred. At the beginning of the season it is less accurate since it is relying on a lot of the prior year's results which may or may not be reflective of current year relative strength. 

I have found Laz's method to be very good late in the regular season and come playoff time. 

And, yes, like all computer based systems, it has its shortfalls. However, since it is based solely on outcomes on the field and tries to relate all regions of the state to each other, at least the approach despite is shortfalls, is objective, and not subject to emotion and personal bias. 

Over the years, Laz has had trouble with the Hillsborough area teams since they tend to play almost all their games in County based on local school board policy. Thus it has been hard to find connectivity links for those teams.