FPRI Rankings following Week 4

[Joshua Wilson]

Here at the latest rankings from the Florida Power Rankings Index after Week 4:

Florida Power 25: https://floridahsfootball.com/2025/09/16/florida-power-rankings-index-2025-florida-power-25-rankings-following-week-4/

Classification Top 10: https://floridahsfootball.com/2025/09/16/florida-power-rankings-index-2025-classification-top-10-rankings-for-every-classification-following-week-4/

 

[DILLARDBOYZ954]

I don’t know if these computer rankings are blind or just delusional. HOW IN THE WORLD is Dillard not even in the Class 4A TOP 10 let alone top 5. Dillard is the ONLY team in 4A that gave heritage their TOUGHEST playoff battle last year. the ONLY team that held American heritage scoreless in the first half, And Got even BETTER this year. 
 

norland graduated their top QB last year. They gave up a 20 point lead to lake Mary who just got curb stumped 51-3 by Raines last week. Miami norland also just got curb stumped by northwestern last week to fall to 2-2. Tough opponent or not you either won or you lost. 
 

Amercian heritage is still 1-2 even tho they lost to consecutive games. Again tough opponent or not , close lost or not,  they still lost (1-2) is still (1-2). 
 

jones - jones is still in despite BACK TO BACK losses, one lost was against Evan’s who was 22 point underdogs, it was against a Evan’s team who wasn’t even ranked top 200 in Florida , let alone the nation. 
 

I hate to say it, but some of these rankings be giving, the watch no film, they don’t know anything about these teams and where and who they’re year to year. It’s giving ranked by name & popularity Smh. @nolebull813

[Dr. D]

I don’t pretend to speak for Josh (or anyone else), but Josh’s FPRI ranking “applies a proprietary formula factoring in Opponent Strength Index (OSI), average margin of victory, and an overall performance rating to generate accurate, unbiased rankings”.  Just as the LAZINDEX, Colley Method, MaxPreps, and the FHSAA Power Rankings place variables into a weighted formula to derive a numerical rating.  Opinion-based factors, "the eye test”, and other subjective observations are not part of computer rankings.  So, computer rankings are, in fact, blind (and some would argue, delusional).  In Dillard’s case, don’t be surprised if they are not in the top 5 of 4A in the FHSAA rankings when they come out next week.  Objectively, their marshmallow-soft schedule is hurting them in the computer rankings.  The real issue is relying on MaxPreps' top-secret computer rankings to select and seed playoff teams, but everyone seems okay with that.

[Perspective]

47 minutes ago, Dr. D said:

I don’t pretend to speak for Josh (or anyone else), but Josh’s FPRI ranking “applies a proprietary formula factoring in Opponent Strength Index (OSI), average margin of victory, and an overall performance rating to generate accurate, unbiased rankings”.  Just as the LAZINDEX, Colley Method, MaxPreps, and the FHSAA Power Rankings place variables into a weighted formula to derive a numerical rating.  Opinion-based factors, "the eye test”, and other subjective observations are not part of computer rankings.  So, computer rankings are, in fact, blind (and some would argue, delusional).  In Dillard’s case, don’t be surprised if they are not in the top 5 of 4A in the FHSAA rankings when they come out next week.  Objectively, their marshmallow-soft schedule is hurting them in the computer rankings.  The real issue is relying on MaxPreps' top-secret computer rankings to select and seed playoff teams, but everyone seems okay with that.

Dr. D, I think this is a great explanation (defense?) for the computer-generated rankings.   But it seems as though some subjectivity is involved for some of the rankings, or how else do you come up with pre-season rankings?  Unless you're using a "how good were they last year" factor and then slowly devaluing that factor as the season progresses. 

[DILLARDBOYZ954]

1 hour ago, Dr. D said:

I don’t pretend to speak for Josh (or anyone else), but Josh’s FPRI ranking “applies a proprietary formula factoring in Opponent Strength Index (OSI), average margin of victory, and an overall performance rating to generate accurate, unbiased rankings”.  Just as the LAZINDEX, Colley Method, MaxPreps, and the FHSAA Power Rankings place variables into a weighted formula to derive a numerical rating.  Opinion-based factors, "the eye test”, and other subjective observations are not part of computer rankings.  So, computer rankings are, in fact, blind (and some would argue, delusional).  In Dillard’s case, don’t be surprised if they are not in the top 5 of 4A in the FHSAA rankings when they come out next week.  Objectively, their marshmallow-soft schedule is hurting them in the computer rankings.  The real issue is relying on MaxPreps' top-secret computer rankings to select and seed playoff teams, but everyone seems okay with that.

I get it, but in that case how do we speak for the week 1 win vs Orlando power Dr Phillips. Laz index had Dr Phillips as 20 point favorites only for them to lose by 39. Dr Phillips has also went on to destroy every opponent they’ve faced after losing to us. If the win over 7A Dr Phillips was an “UPSET” that alone should have us top 5 In 4A , No?? 
 

and as @Perspective was saying if this numbers are being based off popularity or what did you do for me last year. Dillard went 8-2 in the regular season, went on the road in the first round vs undefeated John Carroll Catholic as 13 point underdogs and beat the breaks off them. 
 

we traveled to AHP in the 2nd round as 28 point underdogs & was up 14-0 on American heritage at the half, the only opponent to hold the patriots scoreless in the first half, ALL OF LAST YEAR, we led the patriots 14-10 with 5 minutes left to go. Untilmatley losing 24-14. Where as norland in round 3 was blown out with their star Qb, heritage coaches even said Dillard was their toughest opponent in the playoffs. But yet NORLAND is still in the TOP 5 even tho they lost a lot & lost two games, one in blowout fashion this year, whereas Dillard Got even better. Like make it make sense. 

[Ray Icaza]

3 hours ago, Dr. D said:

I don’t pretend to speak for Josh (or anyone else), but Josh’s FPRI ranking “applies a proprietary formula factoring in Opponent Strength Index (OSI), average margin of victory, and an overall performance rating to generate accurate, unbiased rankings”.  Just as the LAZINDEX, Colley Method, MaxPreps, and the FHSAA Power Rankings place variables into a weighted formula to derive a numerical rating.  Opinion-based factors, "the eye test”, and other subjective observations are not part of computer rankings.  So, computer rankings are, in fact, blind (and some would argue, delusional).  In Dillard’s case, don’t be surprised if they are not in the top 5 of 4A in the FHSAA rankings when they come out next week.  Objectively, their marshmallow-soft schedule is hurting them in the computer rankings.  The real issue is relying on MaxPreps' top-secret computer rankings to select and seed playoff teams, but everyone seems okay with that.

Sir, you are spot on highlighting Dillard's Strength of Schedule.  Of the top 50 in MaxPreps, 49 of them have a positive rating like +20, +30, +40  etc.. while Dillard is the sole team making this group with a minus number (-2).  Arguing Dr. Phillips is a statement game assumes the strength of teams in the Orlando area.  I would argue that the entire group of better teams aren't nearly as good as they were last year for whatever reasons.  I do understand Dillard's frustration as I felt that way last year and proved to be right making it all the way to the state final.   So, my advice to them is to keep their powder dry and make a VERY deep run into the playoffs for your justification.  Don't confuse me thinking you shouldn't be ranked higher as I know nothing about your team and unless I saw them play I can't make an honest assessment.  As others have rightfully pointed out, the remainder of the schedule is also weak including district games so win out (10-0) and you will easily qualify for the playoffs.  That my friend is the time to make NOISE, because now means nothing. 

[DILLARDBOYZ954]

2 hours ago, Ray Icaza said:

Sir, you are spot on highlighting Dillard's Strength of Schedule.  Of the top 50 in MaxPreps, 49 of them have a positive rating like +20, +30, +40  etc.. while Dillard is the sole team making this group with a minus number (-2).  Arguing Dr. Phillips is a statement game assumes the strength of teams in the Orlando area.  I would argue that the entire group of better teams aren't nearly as good as they were last year for whatever reasons.  I do understand Dillard's frustration as I felt that way last year and proved to be right making it all the way to the state final.   So, my advice to them is to keep their powder dry and make a VERY deep run into the playoffs for your justification.  Don't confuse me thinking you shouldn't be ranked higher as I know nothing about your team and unless I saw them play I can't make an honest assessment.  As others have rightfully pointed out, the remainder of the schedule is also weak including district games so win out (10-0) and you will easily qualify for the playoffs.  That my friend is the time to make NOISE, because now means nothing. 

I respect your opinion bro & you know it’s all love. Now with that said. You mentioned us beating dr.phillips, questions how good is Orlando team. And as I mentioned up top from.Philips was 20 point faves so obviously they thought really highly of them, until they got punched in the mouth on game day. 
 

HELL JONES vs EVANS , evans beat jones and immediately sky rocketed. BOTH jones & DR Phillips made it to the state semis or further last year. 
 

all im saying is if rankings gonna be posted, actually look at film, no what the rosters looking like. Dont just rank teams off name and popularity , which is what I feel a lot of ranking pages do. Especially the north Florida , central Florida posters . If it’s not CENTRAL, STA, AHP, CHAMINADE, they do ZERO homework on getting to know the other teams down here, teams that are dam good. But because they don’t pass the “NAME CHECK” they get no love. 
 

lastly like I stated up top, we can go back and forth all day about Dillards LACK OF toughness in their schedule this year. But again Norland came in ranked this year fresh off losing their ALL STAR qb to graduation, a plethora of skill position players, they have 2 LOSES already in this young season & was BLOWN OUT BY 20+ last week & their STILL RANKED top 5 in 4A ? WHY!? is it cuz of name ? , if we’re going off LAST YEAR. Dillard went toe to toe with heritage in the playoffs , norland was BLOWN OUT, So by that matrix , shouldn’t Dillard who not only kept their last years team intact but Also ADDED & got better ; shouldn’t they be ranked high as well? I’m just saying make it make sense lol. 

[Dr. D]

With all due respect, you are looking for answers that do not exist, at least not in a publicly available forum, and there is no way to make it make sense.  Each “owner” of a computer ranking uses his own version of different variables (won-loss record, strength of schedule, margin of victory, etc.), with different weighting applied to those variables, and run through some type of computer algorithm or Monte Carlo simulation or whatever.  Since each of these rankings uses “proprietary” information, the public at large has no clue as to what the process looks like.  Hence, the frustration at a finished product which no one can understand.  And even though these computer rankings are presented as “objective”, there are subjective elements within the calculations, based on the particular biases and opinions of the "owner".  But my limited knowledge tells me that any statistically significant metric must be repeatable and can be verified independently, which these rankings are not.  Thus, I suggest you join me in viewing computer rankings with skepticism and/or disdain.

[Ray Icaza]

48 minutes ago, DILLARDBOYZ954 said:

I respect your opinion bro & you know it’s all love. Now with that said. You mentioned us beating dr.phillips, questions how good is Orlando team. And as I mentioned up top from.Philips was 20 point faves so obviously they thought really highly of them, until they got punched in the mouth on game day. 
 

HELL JONES vs EVANS , evans beat jones and immediately sky rocketed. BOTH jones & DR Phillips made it to the state semis or further last year. 
 

all im saying is if rankings gonna be posted, actually look at film, no what the rosters looking like. Dont just rank teams off name and popularity , which is what I feel a lot of ranking pages do. Especially the north Florida , central Florida posters . If it’s not CENTRAL, STA, AHP, CHAMINADE, they do ZERO homework on getting to know the other teams down here, teams that are dam good. But because they don’t pass the “NAME CHECK” they get no love. 
 

lastly like I stated up top, we can go back and forth all day about Dillards LACK OF toughness in their schedule this year. But again Norland came in ranked this year fresh off losing their ALL STAR qb to graduation, a plethora of skill position players, they have 2 LOSES already in this young season & was BLOWN OUT BY 20+ last week & their STILL RANKED top 5 in 4A ? WHY!? is it cuz of name ? , if we’re going off LAST YEAR. Dillard went toe to toe with heritage in the playoffs , norland was BLOWN OUT, So by that matrix , shouldn’t Dillard who not only kept their last years team intact but Also ADDED & got better ; shouldn’t they be ranked high as well? I’m just saying make it make sense lol. 

As the good Dr. pointed out in the thread below and I have said since the beginning of the season, these early season rankings are truly flawed and we both encourage you to ignore them.  What is more important, early season rankings that are flawed or winning playoff games after the first two rounds?  It's what I refer to making a lot of NOISE during the season to sadly leave with a whimper.  I also honestly said I think we are currently overrated due to last year's success while being overlooked last year due to our 4-7 record the previous year overlooking the devastating injuries to several D1 players during that season that were back to full strength last year.   Looking down the road, you should have running clock victories in the first two playoff rounds like we did last year as District 13 & 14 (4A) outside of Dillard only has one other team with even a pulse.   Once we got to the Regional Championship round where the pretenders are gone, no one (including yourself) gave us a chance to beat Armwood at their place and how did that go.  Same with the next round vs Bucholz.  Point being, talk is cheap so let your success at the end of the road do your talking.  

[DILLARDBOYZ954]

31 minutes ago, Ray Icaza said:

As the good Dr. pointed out in the thread below and I have said since the beginning of the season, these early season rankings are truly flawed and we both encourage you to ignore them.  What is more important, early season rankings that are flawed or winning playoff games after the first two rounds?  It's what I refer to making a lot of NOISE during the season to sadly leave with a whimper.  I also honestly said I think we are currently overrated due to last year's success while being overlooked last year due to our 4-7 record the previous year overlooking the devastating injuries to several D1 players during that season that were back to full strength last year.   Looking down the road, you should have running clock victories in the first two playoff rounds like we did last year as District 13 & 14 (4A) outside of Dillard only has one other team with even a pulse.   Once we got to the Regional Championship round where the pretenders are gone, no one (including yourself) gave us a chance to beat Armwood at their place and how did that go.  Same with the next round vs Bucholz.  Point being, talk is cheap so let your success at the end of the road do your talking.  

I’m with you when you right bro. 

[nolebull813]

If Dillard takes care of their business, then it’s all a moot point. All Dillard has to worry about is game 15 and scoring more than the game 15 opponent. Lol. 

[DILLARDBOYZ954]

5 hours ago, nolebull813 said:

If Dillard takes care of their business, then it’s all a moot point. All Dillard has to worry about is game 15 and scoring more than the game 15 opponent. Lol. 

You ain’t never lied lol

[VB_Fan]

Vero dropping from 4th to 18th after winning 37-0 doesn't feel great. Put up the points, I guess!