LAZINDEX Week 16 Forecast

[LAZ]

Last Week: 29-6 .829; Season: 2397-541 .816                                     

CLASS 7A STATE SEMIFINALS
Venice	over	Lake Mary +2
Vero Beach	over	Miami Palmetto +8
CLASS 6A STATE SEMIFINALS
Buchholz	over	West Broward +1
Armwood	over	West Boca Raton +1
CLASS 5A STATE SEMIFINALS
Lakeland	over	Ponte Vedra +3
St. Thomas Aquinas	over	Riverdale +25
CLASS 4A STATE SEMIFINALS
American Heritage	over	Choctawhatchee +4
Jones	over	Port Charlotte +7
CLASS 3A STATE SEMIFINALS
Raines	over	Booker +10
Miami Northwestern	over	Bishop Moore +15
CLASS 2A STATE SEMIFINALS
Bolles	over	Cardinal Gibbons +12
Cardinal Mooney	over	Cocoa +15
CLASS 1A STATE SEMIFINALS
Cardinal Newman	over	Carrollwood Day +6
Chaminade	over	Trinity Christian +23
RURAL STATE FINAL
Blountstown	over	Hawthorne +1
RURAL FIT STATE FINAL
Fort White	over	Port St. Joe +10
FIT 1 (1A-3A) STATE FINAL
North Miami Beach	over	Dunnellon +4
FIT 2 (4A-7A) STATE FINAL
Tate	over	Dr. Garcia +6

[181pl]

thx 

[imjustafan2]

LAZ, you said it yourself, you go by your formula. So if that's true, I'm going to miss 3 by my current picks. But I am still flipping that coin to help me figure out my picks.  Thanks for the work you do on the Index.

[LAZ]

Yes, and I do go only by my numbers. Sometimes they are wrong. Really wrong. But they pick high school winners over 80% of the time. As far as this week's games, If I was using my "gut feeling," there would be a couple of changes.  I have a sentimental attachment to Lake Mary, where my son played many years ago. They are really on a roll right now.  Also, I'm not sure about Blountstown and Hawthorne. And I do think there may be at least one surprise. That said, I go with the numbers. There's a lot that goes into them. We'll see.

[Perspective]

54 minutes ago, LAZ said:

Yes, and I do go only by my numbers. Sometimes they are wrong. Really wrong. But they pick high school winners over 80% of the time. As far as this week's games, If I was using my "gut feeling," there would be a couple of changes.  I have a sentimental attachment to Lake Mary, where my son played many years ago. They are really on a roll right now.  Also, I'm not sure about Blountstown and Hawthorne. And I do think there may be at least one surprise. That said, I go with the numbers. There's a lot that goes into them. We'll see.

Laz, does the so-called "home field advantage" come into play at all for you and your numbers?

[LAZ]

I do not use it in for high schools. I did use home field advantage several years ago in a somewhat futile attempt to keep accuracy pace with Joe Pinkos who did not use home field advantage. But it's basically meaningless. It works out to less than 1/2 point per game on average. Anyway, the last time I used home field advantage for high schools, it was around 0.34 points.  

[nolebull813]

5 hours ago, LAZ said:

I do not use it in for high schools. I did use home field advantage several years ago in a somewhat futile attempt to keep accuracy pace with Joe Pinkos who did not use home field advantage. But it's basically meaningless. It works out to less than 1/2 point per game on average. Anyway, the last time I used home field advantage for high schools, it was around 0.34 points.  

Yeah and if you take Venice out of the equation, it’s closer to 0.00 

[imjustafan2]

7 hours ago, LAZ said:

  I have a sentimental attachment to Lake Mary, where my son played many years ago. They are really on a roll right now.  

I know what you mean, I'm a Cocoa Alumni, from way back. Cocoa had a rough start with all the young players, but they seem to be coming together at the right time. They have a big challenge with Cardinal Mooney this week. Their game against Norland was the only time I didn't pick them. I will probably go with Cocoa this week.