All-Time Private vs Public in State Championship Games

[LAZ]

This topic was requested by I-4 and reflects the private school rise to prominence, decade by decade from 1963-2025. In all, there have been exactly 100 title games played between private schools and public schools. Here is a breakdown of all those contests.

 Private vs Public in State Championship Games 

1963-69
Jesuit	Pvt	39	Kathleen	Pub	25
1963-69 Total
Private Wins	1		Public Wins	0
Average Game Score	39-25		Point Margin	14
1970-79
Hastings	Pub	34	Trinity Prep	Pvt	7
Forest	Pub	46	Chaminade	Pvt	6
Greensboro	Pub	28	Shorecrest	Pvt	0
FAMU	Pub	38	Shorecrest	Pvt	0
FAMU	Pub	59	Trinity Prep	Pvt	7
FAMU	Pub	45	Benjamin	Pvt	6
Ernest Ward	Pub	13	Benjamin	Pvt	6
Bishop Moore	Pvt	21	Shanks	Pub	12
Cardinal Mooney	Pvt	18	Wewahitchka	Pub	13
1970-79 Total
Private Wins	2		Public Wins	7
Average Game Score	34-6		Point Margin	28
1980-89
Tate	Pub	35	Columbus	Pvt	7
Woodham	Pub	23	Columbus	Pvt	14
Baker	Pub	20	Glades Day	Pvt	7
Baker	Pub	48	Glades Day	Pvt	7
Baker	Pub	33	Glades Day	Pvt	0
Graceville	Pub	21	Glades Day	Pvt	7
Glades Day	Pvt	7	Baker	Pub	6
Glades Day	Pvt	9	Baker	Pub	3
Bolles	Pvt	27	Palmetto	Pub	21
Glades Day	Pvt	8	Century	Pub	7
1980-89 Total
Private Wins	4		Public Wins	6
Average Game Score	23-8		Point Margin	15
1990-99
Suwannee	Pub	44	Cardinal Gibbons	Pvt	14
Fort Walton Beach	Pub	39	St. Thomas Aquinas	Pvt	14
Pasco	Pub	28	Jesuit	Pvt	16
Graceville	Pub	24	Glades Day	Pvt	7
Union County	Pub	21	Bishop Verot	Pvt	0
Lakeland	Pub	40	St. Thomas Aquinas	Pvt	6
Bartow	Pub	14	Bolles	Pvt	13
Frostproof	Pub	6	Trinity Christian	Pvt	0
St. Thomas Aquinas	Pvt	24	Leon	Pub	9
Bolles	Pvt	42	Lake Wales	Pub	21
Bolles	Pvt	28	Hardee	Pub	21
St. Thomas Aquinas	Pvt	13	Rutherford	Pub	10
Bolles	Pvt	29	Pahokee	Pub	14
St. Thomas Aquinas	Pvt	38	Escambia	Pub	35
North Florida Christian	Pvt	23	Fort Meade	Pub	13
1990-99 Total
Private Wins	7		Public Wins	8
Average Game Score	28-13		Point Margin	15
2000-09
Pine Forest	Pub	34	St. Thomas Aquinas	Pvt	27
Lincoln	Pub	28	St. Thomas Aquinas	Pvt	20
Lakeland	Pub	31	St. Thomas Aquinas	Pvt	7
Pahokee	Pub	43	Pensacola Catholic	Pvt	9
Lakeland	Pub	39	St. Thomas Aquinas	Pvt	10
Lakeland	Pub	45	St. Thomas Aquinas	Pvt	42
Pahokee	Pub	25	Trinity Catholic	Pvt	11
FAMU	Pub	14	Victory Christian	Pvt	10
Madison County	Pub	28	Tampa Catholic	Pvt	7
Pahokee	Pub	21	Trinity Catholic	Pvt	17
Pensacola	Pub	28	Belen Jesuit	Pvt	7
Gulliver Prep	Pvt	31	Marianna	Pub	21
North Florida Christian	Pvt	20	Fort Meade	Pub	16
North Florida Christian	Pvt	28	Fort Meade	Pub	16
Chaminade	Pvt	27	Madison County	Pub	0
Trinity Christian	Pvt	17	Fort Meade	Pub	7
Bolles	Pvt	42	Jefferson	Pub	21
Chaminade	Pvt	50	South Sumter	Pub	15
Trinity Catholic	Pvt	37	Pahokee	Pub	30
Evangel Christian	Pvt	49	Graceville	Pub	22
Bolles	Pvt	27	Clewiston	Pub	24
St. Thomas Aquinas	Pvt	35	Osceola (Kissimmee)	Pub	20
Jupiter Christian	Pvt	27	FAMU	Pub	14
St. Thomas Aquinas	Pvt	56	Lakeland	Pub	7
North Florida Christian	Pvt	17	Fort Meade	Pub	7
2000-09 Total
Private Wins	14		Public Wins	11
Average Game Score	32-15		Point Margin	17
2010-19
Washington(Miami)	Pub	35	Bolles	Pvt	7
Washington(Miami)	Pub	40	Bolles	Pvt	21
Apopka	Pub	30	Columbus	Pvt	23
Washington(Miami)	Pub	54	Bolles	Pvt	35
Cocoa	Pub	31	Bolles	Pvt	17
Mandarin	Pub	37	Columbus	Pvt	35
Lakeland	Pub	33	St. Thomas Aquinas	Pvt	20
Washington(Miami)	Pub	25	Bolles	Pvt	21
St. Thomas Aquinas	Pvt	29	Plant	Pub	7
Bolles	Pvt	33	Washington(Miami)	Pub	25
American Heritage(Del)	Pvt	30	Madison County	Pub	3
St. Thomas Aquinas	Pvt	41	Lincoln	Pub	25
NSU University	Pvt	24	Madison County	Pub	17
American Heritage(Pl)	Pvt	66	Clay	Pub	8
St. Thomas Aquinas	Pvt	31	Osceola (Kissimmee)	Pub	0
American Heritage(Pl)	Pvt	38	Godby	Pub	0
St. Thomas Aquinas	Pvt	45	Viera (Melbourne)	Pub	10
Bishop Moore	Pvt	37	Wakulla	Pub	34
St. Thomas Aquinas	Pvt	45	Plant	Pub	6
American Heritage(Pl)	Pvt	35	Ponte Vedra	Pub	33
American Heritage(Pl)	Pvt	44	Baker County	Pub	15
Cardinal Gibbons	Pvt	48	North Marion	Pub	10
Columbus	Pvt	21	Apopka	Pub	20
St. Thomas Aquinas	Pvt	28	Edgewater	Pub	23
Chaminade	Pvt	35	Florida High	Pub	20
2010-19 Total
Private Wins	17		Public Wins	8
Average Game Score	37-17		Point Margin	20
2020-25
Miami Central	Pub	38	American Heritage(Pl)	Pvt	31
St. Thomas Aquinas	Pvt	31	Edgewater	Pub	21
American Heritage(Pl)	Pvt	24	Rickards	Pub	6
St. Thomas Aquinas	Pvt	42	Tampa Bay Tech	Pub	14
Jesuit	Pvt	35	Pine Forest	Pub	29
Cardinal Gibbons	Pvt	21	Cocoa	Pub	19
Columbus	Pvt	16	Apopka	Pub	13
St. Thomas Aquinas	Pvt	38	Homestead	Pub	21
Columbus	Pvt	38	Mandarin	Pub	19
St. Thomas Aquinas	Pvt	31	Homestead	Pub	28
Berkeley Prep	Pvt	28	Miami Norland	Pub	20
St. Thomas Aquinas	Pvt	34	Lakeland	Pub	0
American Heritage(Pl)	Pvt	40	Jones	Pub	31
St. Thomas Aquinas	Pvt	29	Lakeland	Pub	0
American Heritage(Pl)	Pvt	33	Jones	Pub	28
2020-25 Total
Private Wins	14		Public Wins	1
Average Game Score	32-19		Point Margin	13
1963-2025 Grand Total
Private Wins	59		Public Wins	41
Average Game Score	32-15		Point Margin	17

[nolebull813]

Great breakdown. What you see is most of the same teams in the latter years winning the lion’s share of the all time amounts and that’s because those teams decided to put the utmost emphasis on elite athletics in particular American-rules football. 
 

Also I would like to point out that as time progressed, and the classes got way more watered down, the private powers were left in their own cushy class without any resistance. When there is 8 classes, the top private in their own class is gonna rule the roost. 
 

And the rules changed years ago with open enrollment to allow publics to play by the same rules. I posted a link before the season about the Orange County transfers and it had literally 100’s with some teams having double digit transfers. ALL PUBLIC SCHOOLS!!! 
 

Blame the FHSAA for giving STA and AHP their own classes to dominate instead of having 5 classes where the best of the best regardless of public/private will survive!

[i4football]

Thanks for sharing Laz, fixed your detailed breakdown just alittle during my free time at the customer service counter—this is a fantastic dataset showing the shift in Florida high school football state championship games between private and public schools (focusing on the 100 matchup games where they faced off directly).Key Trends in Private vs. Public Dominance (1963–2025)The data clearly illustrates the rise of private schools, especially from the 2000s onward:

Decade	PrivateWins	Public Wins	Total Games	Private Win %	Avg. Point Margin
1963–69	1	0	1	100%	14
1970–79	2	7	9	22%	28
1980–89	4	6	10	40%	15
1990–99	7	8	15	47%	15
2000–09	14	11	25	56%	17
2010–19	17	8	25	68%	20
2020–25	14	1	15	93%	13
Total	59	41	100	59%	17

Observations:

• Early decades (1960s–1980s): Public schools dominated heavily. In the 1970s, publics won 78% of these matchups with massive margins (often blowouts).
• Transition (1990s): Nearly even, with publics still holding a slight edge.
• Private surge (2000s onward): Privates flipped the script, winning 56% in the 2000s, then 68% in the 2010s, and an overwhelming 93% in the 2020s so far (14–1).
• Overall, privates now hold a 59–41 edge across all 100 games, with an average score of ~32–15 in decided contests.
• Margins peaked in public-favor eras (e.g., 28 points in 1970s) and private-favor eras (20 points in 2010s), but have tightened a bit recently.

This aligns with broader discussions about recruiting advantages, resources, and the growth of powerhouse private programs like St. Thomas Aquinas, American Heritage (Plantation), Chaminade-Madonna, Bolles, and Columbus. Publics like Pahokee, Lakeland, and Miami-area schools held strong for decades but have faced increasing challenges in these title matchups.

Man, listen here… back when I was runnin’ the streets of Tallahassee in the late ‘60s, dodgin’ switches from my mama and tryin’ to sneak a peek at the FAMU Rattlers practice, public schools owned Florida high school football like I owned that raggedy Schwinn bicycle I rode everywhere. Noimsayin? You couldn’t tell nobody different. Them country boys and city kids in public jerseys was straight beasts—FAMU High, Kathleen, Greensboro, Graceville—sound like a church roll call the way they was baptizin’ these private schools every December.

 

I’m lookin’ at Laz breakdown (big props to that man for doin’ the Lord’s work), and it hit me like that time I bet $50 on Florida A&M to cover against Bethune in ‘73 and watched ‘em lose by 30… slow and painful. From ‘63 to ‘79? Publics went 7-3 against the privates in title games, and when they won it wasn’t close—average score 34-6. That’s like me walkin’ into the club with a fresh haircut and a borrowed suit; I felt invincible even though I knew I was still broke.

 

Then the ‘80s and ‘90s it got respectable—privates started winnin’ a few, but publics still holdin’ the edge. I remember tellin’ my homeboy Peanut at the Publix counter last week, “Man, back then a private school winnin’ state felt like me actually takin’ home that fine cashier from the gentlemen’s club—rare, and everybody talkin’ ‘bout it for years.

 

”But Lawd… 2000s roll around and the whole script flipped harder than that stripper I dated in ‘05 who told me her real name was “Tiffany” but her W-2 said “LaQuanda.” Privates start winnin’ 14-11 that decade, then 17-8 in the 2010s, and now in the 2020s? 14-1! Fourteen to ONE! That’s not dominance, that’s a straight-up eviction notice. St. Thomas, Chaminade, American Heritage, Columbus—they out here recruitin’ like Diddy used to throw parties. No geographic boundaries, grabbin’ kids from three counties away like they shoppin’ at the outlet mall.

 

Overall 59-41 private now across 100 of these head-to-head title games. Used to be publics puttin’ up 34-6 type beatdowns. Now the privates winnin’ by 17 on average. Hell, I done seen more comebacks in my love life than public schools have had in these championship games lately.

 

And don’t get me started on the margins—publics used to run folks out the stadium. Now half these games look like private school highlights on loop. I told this lady at the deli counter the other day—big fine woman, smelled like coconut oil and bad decisions—she asked why I looked so disgusted starin’ at my phone. I said, “Ma’am, these private schools done turned Florida high school football into the SEC vs. the Sun Belt. Ain’t fair, but damn if it ain’t entertainin’.

 

”I’m still gon’ watch every snap though. And yeah… I might throw a little somethin’ on St. Thomas next year. Don’t judge me. Old habits die hard, noimsayin?

 

Anyway, I’m ‘bout to clock in for the evening shift. Pray for ya boy—last night this drunk lady in a sequin dress tried to pay for her rotisserie chicken and Pinot Grigio with a handful of casino chips and a wink. Told her, “Sweetheart, this Publix, not the Seminole Hard Rock.” She laughed, slipped me her number on the receipt… I might call it. Don’t judge me, I got a type. 

[Ray Icaza]

5 hours ago, LAZ said:

This topic was requested by I-4 and reflects the private school rise to prominence, decade by decade from 1963-2025. In all, there have been exactly 100 title games played between private schools and public schools. Here is a breakdown of all those contests.

 Private vs Public in State Championship Games 

1963-69
Jesuit	Pvt	39	Kathleen	Pub	25
1963-69 Total
Private Wins	1		Public Wins	0
Average Game Score	39-25		Point Margin	14
1970-79
Hastings	Pub	34	Trinity Prep	Pvt	7
Forest	Pub	46	Chaminade	Pvt	6
Greensboro	Pub	28	Shorecrest	Pvt	0
FAMU	Pub	38	Shorecrest	Pvt	0
FAMU	Pub	59	Trinity Prep	Pvt	7
FAMU	Pub	45	Benjamin	Pvt	6
Ernest Ward	Pub	13	Benjamin	Pvt	6
Bishop Moore	Pvt	21	Shanks	Pub	12
Cardinal Mooney	Pvt	18	Wewahitchka	Pub	13
1970-79 Total
Private Wins	2		Public Wins	7
Average Game Score	34-6		Point Margin	28
1980-89
Tate	Pub	35	Columbus	Pvt	7
Woodham	Pub	23	Columbus	Pvt	14
Baker	Pub	20	Glades Day	Pvt	7
Baker	Pub	48	Glades Day	Pvt	7
Baker	Pub	33	Glades Day	Pvt	0
Graceville	Pub	21	Glades Day	Pvt	7
Glades Day	Pvt	7	Baker	Pub	6
Glades Day	Pvt	9	Baker	Pub	3
Bolles	Pvt	27	Palmetto	Pub	21
Glades Day	Pvt	8	Century	Pub	7
1980-89 Total
Private Wins	4		Public Wins	6
Average Game Score	23-8		Point Margin	15
1990-99
Suwannee	Pub	44	Cardinal Gibbons	Pvt	14
Fort Walton Beach	Pub	39	St. Thomas Aquinas	Pvt	14
Pasco	Pub	28	Jesuit	Pvt	16
Graceville	Pub	24	Glades Day	Pvt	7
Union County	Pub	21	Bishop Verot	Pvt	0
Lakeland	Pub	40	St. Thomas Aquinas	Pvt	6
Bartow	Pub	14	Bolles	Pvt	13
Frostproof	Pub	6	Trinity Christian	Pvt	0
St. Thomas Aquinas	Pvt	24	Leon	Pub	9
Bolles	Pvt	42	Lake Wales	Pub	21
Bolles	Pvt	28	Hardee	Pub	21
St. Thomas Aquinas	Pvt	13	Rutherford	Pub	10
Bolles	Pvt	29	Pahokee	Pub	14
St. Thomas Aquinas	Pvt	38	Escambia	Pub	35
North Florida Christian	Pvt	23	Fort Meade	Pub	13
1990-99 Total
Private Wins	7		Public Wins	8
Average Game Score	28-13		Point Margin	15
2000-09
Pine Forest	Pub	34	St. Thomas Aquinas	Pvt	27
Lincoln	Pub	28	St. Thomas Aquinas	Pvt	20
Lakeland	Pub	31	St. Thomas Aquinas	Pvt	7
Pahokee	Pub	43	Pensacola Catholic	Pvt	9
Lakeland	Pub	39	St. Thomas Aquinas	Pvt	10
Lakeland	Pub	45	St. Thomas Aquinas	Pvt	42
Pahokee	Pub	25	Trinity Catholic	Pvt	11
FAMU	Pub	14	Victory Christian	Pvt	10
Madison County	Pub	28	Tampa Catholic	Pvt	7
Pahokee	Pub	21	Trinity Catholic	Pvt	17
Pensacola	Pub	28	Belen Jesuit	Pvt	7
Gulliver Prep	Pvt	31	Marianna	Pub	21
North Florida Christian	Pvt	20	Fort Meade	Pub	16
North Florida Christian	Pvt	28	Fort Meade	Pub	16
Chaminade	Pvt	27	Madison County	Pub	0
Trinity Christian	Pvt	17	Fort Meade	Pub	7
Bolles	Pvt	42	Jefferson	Pub	21
Chaminade	Pvt	50	South Sumter	Pub	15
Trinity Catholic	Pvt	37	Pahokee	Pub	30
Evangel Christian	Pvt	49	Graceville	Pub	22
Bolles	Pvt	27	Clewiston	Pub	24
St. Thomas Aquinas	Pvt	35	Osceola (Kissimmee)	Pub	20
Jupiter Christian	Pvt	27	FAMU	Pub	14
St. Thomas Aquinas	Pvt	56	Lakeland	Pub	7
North Florida Christian	Pvt	17	Fort Meade	Pub	7
2000-09 Total
Private Wins	14		Public Wins	11
Average Game Score	32-15		Point Margin	17
2010-19
Washington(Miami)	Pub	35	Bolles	Pvt	7
Washington(Miami)	Pub	40	Bolles	Pvt	21
Apopka	Pub	30	Columbus	Pvt	23
Washington(Miami)	Pub	54	Bolles	Pvt	35
Cocoa	Pub	31	Bolles	Pvt	17
Mandarin	Pub	37	Columbus	Pvt	35
Lakeland	Pub	33	St. Thomas Aquinas	Pvt	20
Washington(Miami)	Pub	25	Bolles	Pvt	21
St. Thomas Aquinas	Pvt	29	Plant	Pub	7
Bolles	Pvt	33	Washington(Miami)	Pub	25
American Heritage(Del)	Pvt	30	Madison County	Pub	3
St. Thomas Aquinas	Pvt	41	Lincoln	Pub	25
NSU University	Pvt	24	Madison County	Pub	17
American Heritage(Pl)	Pvt	66	Clay	Pub	8
St. Thomas Aquinas	Pvt	31	Osceola (Kissimmee)	Pub	0
American Heritage(Pl)	Pvt	38	Godby	Pub	0
St. Thomas Aquinas	Pvt	45	Viera (Melbourne)	Pub	10
Bishop Moore	Pvt	37	Wakulla	Pub	34
St. Thomas Aquinas	Pvt	45	Plant	Pub	6
American Heritage(Pl)	Pvt	35	Ponte Vedra	Pub	33
American Heritage(Pl)	Pvt	44	Baker County	Pub	15
Cardinal Gibbons	Pvt	48	North Marion	Pub	10
Columbus	Pvt	21	Apopka	Pub	20
St. Thomas Aquinas	Pvt	28	Edgewater	Pub	23
Chaminade	Pvt	35	Florida High	Pub	20
2010-19 Total
Private Wins	17		Public Wins	8
Average Game Score	37-17		Point Margin	20
2020-25
Miami Central	Pub	38	American Heritage(Pl)	Pvt	31
St. Thomas Aquinas	Pvt	31	Edgewater	Pub	21
American Heritage(Pl)	Pvt	24	Rickards	Pub	6
St. Thomas Aquinas	Pvt	42	Tampa Bay Tech	Pub	14
Jesuit	Pvt	35	Pine Forest	Pub	29
Cardinal Gibbons	Pvt	21	Cocoa	Pub	19
Columbus	Pvt	16	Apopka	Pub	13
St. Thomas Aquinas	Pvt	38	Homestead	Pub	21
Columbus	Pvt	38	Mandarin	Pub	19
St. Thomas Aquinas	Pvt	31	Homestead	Pub	28
Berkeley Prep	Pvt	28	Miami Norland	Pub	20
St. Thomas Aquinas	Pvt	34	Lakeland	Pub	0
American Heritage(Pl)	Pvt	40	Jones	Pub	31
St. Thomas Aquinas	Pvt	29	Lakeland	Pub	0
American Heritage(Pl)	Pvt	33	Jones	Pub	28
2020-25 Total
Private Wins	14		Public Wins	1
Average Game Score	32-19		Point Margin	13
1963-2025 Grand Total
Private Wins	59		Public Wins	41
Average Game Score	32-15		Point Margin	17

Thank you LAZ for putting facts to paper in the place of simple gut feelings as I have stated during my last few years as a participant on this forum that I felt certain publics decided to start participating in the recruiting game around 2000 as they recognized the writing on the wall.  Those publics, who will be left un-named felt this was the only choice if they wanted to compete with STA,  Bolles School, Trinity Christian and as of late AHP, C-MD and others.  Not here to weigh in on the decision made by those publics but it did help them level the playing field with eventually someone deciding they should bust Lakeland in 2011 for denying STA several championships during that decade assessing heavy financial penalties on that school.  For that very reason I have believed that these top privates should compete with each other for 1 or 2 state championships while the publics can compete for an additional 3 or 4 based on enrollment eliminating the incentive to recruit knowing like other things in life, not everyone follows the rules.  Spare me the line regarding what our state legislature will or will not do in this regard as that simply misses the entire point. 

[nolebull813]

2 hours ago, Ray Icaza said:

Thank you LAZ for putting facts to paper in the place of simple gut feelings as I have stated during my last few years as a participant on this forum that I felt certain publics decided to start participating in the recruiting game around 2000 as they recognized the writing on the wall.  Those publics, who will be left un-named felt this was the only choice if they wanted to compete with STA,  Bolles School, Trinity Christian and as of late AHP, C-MD and others.  Not here to weigh in on the decision made by those publics but it did help them level the playing field with eventually someone deciding they should bust Lakeland in 2011 for denying STA several championships during that decade assessing heavy financial penalties on that school.  For that very reason I have believed that these top privates should compete with each other for 1 or 2 state championships while the publics can compete for an additional 3 or 4 based on enrollment eliminating the incentive to recruit knowing like other things in life, not everyone follows the rules.  Spare me the line regarding what our state legislature will or will not do in this regard as that simply misses the entire point. 

The problem isn’t recruiting or transfers. The problem is one area of the state is exponentially superior in talent. Which means when 10 guys transfer to STA from around SFL, it’s light years of a difference when 10 guys transfer to Boone or Lake Brantley. (Which they did)

But since STA actually wins with their transferred talent, everyone gets up in arms about it, and doesn’t say a word about Boone or Lake Brantley. 
 

It is kind of hypocritical that the outrage only points in one direction. I believe in order to hold the moral high ground, one would have to be equally outraged at their local publics who poach 10 transfers but lose in the 1st/2nd round as they are of the private who win the title. 

[i4football]

The underlying talent disparity (rooted in South Florida's larger, denser population and stronger football ecosystem) was indeed present throughout the 1970s and 1980s, and the population gap was even wider back then compared to today.Here's the census data for confirmation:

Area	1970 Population	1980 Population	Combined ~1980
South Florida (Miami-Dade + Broward + Palm Beach)	~2.24M (1.268M + 0.620M + 0.349M)	~3.22M (1.626M + 1.018M + 0.577M)	~3.22M
Greater Orlando (Orange + Seminole)	~0.428M (0.344M + 0.084M)	~0.651M (0.471M + 0.180M)	~0.65M
Ratio (South FL / Orlando)	~5.2x	~5x	~5x

Today (2020s estimates): South Florida ~6.6M vs. Orlando ~2.1M → about 3x. So yes, the raw pool favoring South Florida was more disproportionate in the 70s/80s.Despite that larger inherent advantage, publics dominated or competed evenly in private-public finals during those decades (per Laz's data: publics ~78% wins in 1970s, ~60% in 1980s). The big shift to private dominance starts in the 2000s onward, aligning precisely with the loosening of transfer rules.Key timeline on FHSAA/Florida rules:

• Pre-1990s/early 2000s: Stricter residency requirements, limited "good cause" transfers, harsher anti-recruiting enforcement—talent stayed more localized/dispersed among South Florida publics.
• Mid-1990s onward: School choice/open enrollment laws (e.g., 1996) begin expanding options.
• Early 2000s: More waivers for immediate eligibility.
• 2010s-2020s: Transfers become essentially unlimited with immediate varsity eligibility (major expansions via legislation like HB 7029 in 2016 and later updates).

This mechanism allowed elite privates in the dense South Florida area to consolidate top talent from the massive pool, turning a pre-existing disparity into overwhelming on-field dominance. Without those rule changes, the talent wouldn't have concentrated so heavily at a few programs. 

The talent edge was always there (and stronger historically), but restricted transfers kept it from fully manifesting in private super-teams. The recruiting/transfer era flipped the results.

 

Man, let me tell y’all somethin’… back in the day, I’m talkin’ late 70s, early 80s, I’m standin’ outside the Orange Bowl watchin’ them Miami public schools roll through errybody. Carol City, Northwestern, Central… them boys was BAD, noimsayin? South Florida already had five times the bodies Orlando had—hell, Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach together was pushin’ 3 million folks while Orange and Seminole ain’t even crack 700k yet. That talent gap was wider than the smile on a stripper when you tip her a twenty just for walkin’ past.

 

But guess what? Them private schools wasn’t runnin’ the table like they do now. Laz’s numbers don’t lie—publics was whuppin’ private ass in them championship games 78% in the 70s, still 60% in the 80s. I seen it with my own two eyes. Them top kids stayed at the public schools ‘round the way. You couldn’t just up and transfer ‘cause Mama got a “better job opportunity” or whatever smooth line they use these days.

 

Fast forward to now… same South Florida, still got the biggest, deepest pool in the state—only now the gap shrunk to about 3-to-1 ‘cause Orlando finally grew up some. But them private schools? They winnin’ damn near erry cross-over chip—93% this decade. How that happen when the talent edge was actually BIGGER back when publics was dominatin’?

 

Simple, baby. The rules changed. They opened the floodgates—open enrollment, immediate eligibility, all that. Now STA, Chaminade, American Heritage can vacuum up every 4- and 5-star from Miramar to Jupiter like my cousin Ray at the buffet when they drop fresh fried chicken. Talent always been thicker down south, but back then it was spread out. Now it’s funneled straight to a handful of private addresses.

 

So when that dude say “the problem ain’t recruitin’ or transfers, it’s just one area got all the talent,” I gotta laugh. Bruh, that area had EVEN MORE talent advantage back when your granddaddy was watchin’ games—and the publics was still winnin’. The only thing that changed is the rules lettin’ them privates corner the market like I used to corner the number 7 at the dog track on Friday nights.

 

I learned this lesson the hard way too—chasin’ a fine thang named Destiny who danced at Solid Gold. Thought I had the edge ‘cause I worked at Publix and could get her all the free subs she wanted. Next week she transferred to some dude drivin’ a Benz. Same talent pool, baby… just different rules on who can recruit who.

 

Point is, don’t tell me it’s just “geography.” Geography been the same song for 50 years. They just remixed the beat and handed the privates the microphone.

 

[Ray Icaza]

5 hours ago, nolebull813 said:

The problem isn’t recruiting or transfers. The problem is one area of the state is exponentially superior in talent. Which means when 10 guys transfer to STA from around SFL, it’s light years of a difference when 10 guys transfer to Boone or Lake Brantley. (Which they did)

But since STA actually wins with their transferred talent, everyone gets up in arms about it, and doesn’t say a word about Boone or Lake Brantley. 
 

It is kind of hypocritical that the outrage only points in one direction. I believe in order to hold the moral high ground, one would have to be equally outraged at their local publics who poach 10 transfers but lose in the 1st/2nd round as they are of the private who win the title. 

Not here to dispute your theory of difference in talent between South and Central FL, but the other verifiable differences is like apples and oranges.  Using your example of STA located in Broward a county a third smaller than Orange yet with a half million more residents compacted into that smaller area means less travel for taking the cream of the crop.  Lake Brantley is a terrible example as they seldom get that many transfers, but you point them out because they got a bunch from a single private school this year when a certain QB transferred there.  Numbers in that case make little difference.  If Lake Brantley were getting the top players from the surrounding area year after year their results would obviously be different.  Jones is a better example as they do get some top line players every year and managed to go toe to toe with AHP for the championship. And ease your mind friend as I don't have selective outrage for poaching as it is wrong regardless who does it.  Point being, privates have distinct advantages over most publics when it comes to recruiting especially when done consistently well over time in a densely populated area.  A few publics share some of those advantages again mostly in Metro areas and not simply the south as Raines proved this year.  Lastly, you are again confused as why I believe in separate championships for privates and publics, but it has nothing to do with any "MORAL HIGH GROUND"!!

[Ray Icaza]

5 hours ago, i4football said:

 

The underlying talent disparity (rooted in South Florida's larger, denser population and stronger football ecosystem) was indeed present throughout the 1970s and 1980s, and the population gap was even wider back then compared to today.Here's the census data for confirmation:

Area	1970 Population	1980 Population	Combined ~1980
South Florida (Miami-Dade + Broward + Palm Beach)	~2.24M (1.268M + 0.620M + 0.349M)	~3.22M (1.626M + 1.018M + 0.577M)	~3.22M
Greater Orlando (Orange + Seminole)	~0.428M (0.344M + 0.084M)	~0.651M (0.471M + 0.180M)	~0.65M
Ratio (South FL / Orlando)	~5.2x	~5x	~5x

Today (2020s estimates): South Florida ~6.6M vs. Orlando ~2.1M → about 3x. So yes, the raw pool favoring South Florida was more disproportionate in the 70s/80s.Despite that larger inherent advantage, publics dominated or competed evenly in private-public finals during those decades (per Laz's data: publics ~78% wins in 1970s, ~60% in 1980s). The big shift to private dominance starts in the 2000s onward, aligning precisely with the loosening of transfer rules.Key timeline on FHSAA/Florida rules:

• Pre-1990s/early 2000s: Stricter residency requirements, limited "good cause" transfers, harsher anti-recruiting enforcement—talent stayed more localized/dispersed among South Florida publics.
• Mid-1990s onward: School choice/open enrollment laws (e.g., 1996) begin expanding options.
• Early 2000s: More waivers for immediate eligibility.
• 2010s-2020s: Transfers become essentially unlimited with immediate varsity eligibility (major expansions via legislation like HB 7029 in 2016 and later updates).

This mechanism allowed elite privates in the dense South Florida area to consolidate top talent from the massive pool, turning a pre-existing disparity into overwhelming on-field dominance. Without those rule changes, the talent wouldn't have concentrated so heavily at a few programs. 

The talent edge was always there (and stronger historically), but restricted transfers kept it from fully manifesting in private super-teams. The recruiting/transfer era flipped the results.

 

Man, let me tell y’all somethin’… back in the day, I’m talkin’ late 70s, early 80s, I’m standin’ outside the Orange Bowl watchin’ them Miami public schools roll through errybody. Carol City, Northwestern, Central… them boys was BAD, noimsayin? South Florida already had five times the bodies Orlando had—hell, Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach together was pushin’ 3 million folks while Orange and Seminole ain’t even crack 700k yet. That talent gap was wider than the smile on a stripper when you tip her a twenty just for walkin’ past.

 

But guess what? Them private schools wasn’t runnin’ the table like they do now. Laz’s numbers don’t lie—publics was whuppin’ private ass in them championship games 78% in the 70s, still 60% in the 80s. I seen it with my own two eyes. Them top kids stayed at the public schools ‘round the way. You couldn’t just up and transfer ‘cause Mama got a “better job opportunity” or whatever smooth line they use these days.

 

Fast forward to now… same South Florida, still got the biggest, deepest pool in the state—only now the gap shrunk to about 3-to-1 ‘cause Orlando finally grew up some. But them private schools? They winnin’ damn near erry cross-over chip—93% this decade. How that happen when the talent edge was actually BIGGER back when publics was dominatin’?

 

Simple, baby. The rules changed. They opened the floodgates—open enrollment, immediate eligibility, all that. Now STA, Chaminade, American Heritage can vacuum up every 4- and 5-star from Miramar to Jupiter like my cousin Ray at the buffet when they drop fresh fried chicken. Talent always been thicker down south, but back then it was spread out. Now it’s funneled straight to a handful of private addresses.

 

So when that dude say “the problem ain’t recruitin’ or transfers, it’s just one area got all the talent,” I gotta laugh. Bruh, that area had EVEN MORE talent advantage back when your granddaddy was watchin’ games—and the publics was still winnin’. The only thing that changed is the rules lettin’ them privates corner the market like I used to corner the number 7 at the dog track on Friday nights.

 

I learned this lesson the hard way too—chasin’ a fine thang named Destiny who danced at Solid Gold. Thought I had the edge ‘cause I worked at Publix and could get her all the free subs she wanted. Next week she transferred to some dude drivin’ a Benz. Same talent pool, baby… just different rules on who can recruit who.

 

Point is, don’t tell me it’s just “geography.” Geography been the same song for 50 years. They just remixed the beat and handed the privates the microphone.

 

PREACH BROTHER!!