Whaddup with 4A?

[OldSchoolLion]

Only 15 of 48 teams in 4A had a winning record.  15 of the 33 teams with losing records had 2 wins or less.  So, nearly 1/3 of 4A teams only won 2 games or less.

I just looked at 2A, 3A, 5A and 6A and it looks like a fairly even split of teams with winning and losing records.

We know what happened to Booker T.  I just randomly checked Mulberry.  3 of their 6 losses were to class 1A/2A schools.

Thoughts?

[Sharkbait]

1 minute ago, OldSchoolLion said:

Only 15 of 48 teams in 4A had a winning record.  15 of the 33 teams with losing records had 2 wins or less.  So, nearly 1/3 of 4A teams only won 2 games or less.

I just looked at 2A, 3A, 5A and 6A and it looks like a fairly even split of teams with winning and losing records.

We know what happened to Booker T.  I just randomly checked Mulberry.  3 of their 6 losses were to class 1A/2A schools.

Thoughts?

Up here if they want to win they need to stop playing 1a schools

[DarterBlue2]

10 minutes ago, OldSchoolLion said:

Only 15 of 48 teams in 4A had a winning record.  15 of the 33 teams with losing records had 2 wins or less.  So, nearly 1/3 of 4A teams only won 2 games or less.

I just looked at 2A, 3A, 5A and 6A and it looks like a fairly even split of teams with winning and losing records.

We know what happened to Booker T.  I just randomly checked Mulberry.  3 of their 6 losses were to class 1A/2A schools.

Thoughts?

Some of the better 4A schools, Bolles and Jones come to mind, bailed for 5A, as they wanted to be in districts. That, and the fact that 4A has lacked depth for the past several years.

Not sure why this has been so. Could it, perhaps, be just one of those random cycles that affect the different classifications from time to time?

[Georgiaflyer]

Gateway Charter only won 2 games this year with a first year head coach. The biggest problem I see is they need to build their own stadium and they need to build it fast as a new Lee County public high school is in the works in the nearby Gateway community of Fort Myers. Very hard to put together a winning program with no real home field advantage.

 

[OldSchoolLion]

37 minutes ago, Georgiaflyer said:

Gateway Charter only won 2 games this year with a first year head coach. The biggest problem I see is they need to build their own stadium and they need to build it fast as a new Lee County public high school is in the works in the nearby Gateway community of Fort Myers. Very hard to put together a winning program with no real home field advantage. Enrollment numbers could continue to plummet if they don’t spend the money to build adequate facilities equal to those of other nearby area schools.The problem is due to lack of local Lee County School District funding as Gateway operates as a Charter School with the only funding coming for educational purposes.

 

Hey Georgiaflyer,

Gateway Charter is in the same region as Cocoa High(Region 3).  Sorry to sound discouraging, but it is pretty much a given that Cocoa will win the region title until there is a realignment.  This past season, Cocoa beat the second ranked team 62-7 in the regional final.

As Darter mentioned above, Orlando Jones moved up to 5A.  They were about the only team in the region who challenged Cocoa in the past.  Jacksonville Bolles and Jacksonville Raines have been the favorites coming out of the north.  Now that Bolles moved to 5A, Raines will be a heavy favorite to make the state title game unless they have a down year.  Region 4 has the most depth.  There are 5 teams in that region who have won at least one state championship in the past.  3 of those are from the Miami area.  

 

[Georgiaflyer]

Yeah I agree with you about Cocoa. They are very solid!

[Cat_Scratch]

10 hours ago, OldSchoolLion said:

Only 15 of 48 teams in 4A had a winning record.  15 of the 33 teams with losing records had 2 wins or less.  So, nearly 1/3 of 4A teams only won 2 games or less.

I just looked at 2A, 3A, 5A and 6A and it looks like a fairly even split of teams with winning and losing records.

We know what happened to Booker T.  I just randomly checked Mulberry.  3 of their 6 losses were to class 1A/2A schools.

Thoughts?

Have you looked at the schedule's of the teams with losing records. Did the 4A teams with losing records play scrubs or did the play some of the better teams in the area? I know many 4A teams play the best competition in their areas. Cocoa, BTW, and a few others will play anyone any time. Even going out of state to play a National power. 

Probably the biggest reason are Head Coaches that are just going through the motion of coaching and doing a half ass job. Either a HC should be full on or just an assistant. 

[OldSchoolLion]

1 hour ago, Cat_Scratch said:

Have you looked at the schedule's of the teams with losing records. Did the 4A teams with losing records play scrubs or did the play some of the better teams in the area? I know many 4A teams play the best competition in their areas. Cocoa, BTW, and a few others will play anyone any time. Even going out of state to play a National power. 

Probably the biggest reason are Head Coaches that are just going through the motion of coaching and doing a half ass job. Either a HC should be full on or just an assistant. 

Here is the breakdown...the short answer, 4A has a lot of really  weak teams, especially in the northern part of the state.  Only two schools had really tough schedules-Edison and Booker T Washington-each playing a number of the south Florida powerhouses.  Otherwise, none of the schools below had particularly tough schedules, ie no OOS games, substantial amount of games vs good larger schools, etc  If they allow any more teams to migrate, this class could get even less competitive.

Interestingly, 20 of 34 1A teams had winning records, versus only 15 of 48 4A teams.  There are about 90 public schools amongst classes 1A-4A.   About 40% have winning records. 

It would be interesting if you could split the 90 into 2 classes of about 45 each with the better schools in one class.  Then use a relegation system where teams can migrate between the two classes as they improve or decline over the years.  2A and 3A are nearly all private schools anyway, so pulling the few public schools out of them would not have much impact.    

4A North FL

Andrew Jackson-8 losing seasons in a row; demolished in most games this season

Atlantic/Port Orange-4 losing seasons in past 5; demolished in most games

Fernandina Beach-no winning season in past 9

Gadsden County-no winning seasons in past 5

Interlachen-7 losing seasons in a row

Keystone Heights- 4 losing seasons in past 5

Marianna-3 winning seasons in past 10

North Bay Haven Academy-no winning season in past 5

PK Yonge-has not had a winning season in past 10

Rutherford-8 losing seasons in a row

Santa Fe-up and down record; got demolished in many games this season, including to 3A schools 

South Sumter-historically strong team; played challenging schedule, but not outrageous 

South Walton-up and down record

Villages Charter-up and down record; very weak schedule this year

Walton-up and down record; demolished by Port St Joe and Blountstown

Wolfson-10 losing seasons in a row

 

4A Central FL

Astronaut-4 losing seasons in past 5

Cocoa Beach-up and down record

Cypress Creek-first season of football; got demolished in most games

Lake Placid-7 losing seasons prior to this one

Mulberry-9 losing seasons in a row

Tenoroc-9 losing seasons in past 10

Umatilla-3 losing seasons in a row

 

4A South FL

Bishop Verot-up and down record

Booker T Washington-historically strong team; played brutal south FL schedule

Coral Springs Charter-up and down record

Edison-up and down record; played brutal Miami schedule

Gateway Charter-no winning season in past 10

Keys Gate-4 losing seasons in past 5

Labelle-no winning season in past 10

Lasalle-up and down record

Oasis-6 losing seasons in a row

Pine Crest-up and down record

[OldSchoolLion]

How Classification Changes Impacted Competition  

From 1985-1998, Florida had 5 classes.  The 3 biggest classes were normally extremely competitive, and then there was big a dropoff to the lowest 2 classes.  Pretty clear delineation between "bigger" schools and "smaller" schools.

In 1999, Florida went to 6 classes.  3A-6A was extremely competitive.  There was a pretty big dropoff from 3A to 2A, but 2A was still pretty competitive.  Each class had approximately 70 teams and 32 teams made the playoffs.

In 2003, Florida went to 7 classes, splitting 2A into 2A and 2B.  3A-6A was extremely competitive and then there was a big dropoff to the lowest 3 classes. Pretty clear delineation between "bigger" schools(3A-6A) and "smaller" schools (2A, 2B, 1A).

2A and 2B dropped from 32 teams in the playoffs to 16 teams.  The other classes stayed at 32.  Bolles and South Sumter, 2 of the top teams in 2A, both petitioned to be moved up to 3A for the 2003 season, weakening the class.   2A had 33 teams and 2B had 37. In 2002, there were no teams with losing records in the 2A playoffs.  In 2003, 4/16 teams in the 2A playoffs had losing records and 2/16 teams in the 2B playoffs had losing records.  A higher percentage of teams in 2A and 2B were making the playoffs than in the other classes.

In 2005, Florida went to 8 classes, splitting 1A into 1A and 1B.  Like 2A and 2B, 1A and 1B each had 16 teams in their respective playoffs.  Class1A had 40 teams and 1B had 38. 

This was arguably the first time in history where the majority of classes were not deep.  Arguably, 4 of the 8 classes(1A, 1B, 2A, 2B) were lacking depth of very good teams.  

In 2011, Florida added a Class 7A and 8A, and eliminated Classes 2B and 1B. In Classes 5A-8A, each class had between 76-93 teams and 32 teams made the playoffs in their respective class.  Classes 1A, 3A and 4A each had between 36-38 teams.  Class 2A had 52 teams.  16 teams made the playoffs in their respective classes in 1A-4A      

Below are playoff brackets from the “middle” classes in 2010 - 2A, 3A and 4A .  Note the depth and some of the intriguing matchups.  Compare these to the “middle” of today - 3A, 4A and 5A -less depth and less intriguing, in my opinion.  Like 2005, the changes in 2011 arguably caused further dilution.   

http://www.fhsaa.org/sites/default/files/orig_uploads/sports/football/archives/2010-11/fb_2010_4a.pdf

http://www.fhsaa.org/sites/default/files/orig_uploads/sports/football/archives/2010-11/fb_2010_3a.pdf

http://www.fhsaa.org/sites/default/files/orig_uploads/sports/football/archives/2010-11/fb_2010_2a.pdf

As 2A lost 2 of its best teams in 2003, weakening the class substantially , 4A lost two its best teams in 2017.  Interestingly, Bolles was involved in both of those cases. 

[Cat_Scratch]

Looks like a lot of work went into your response.  Appreciate all the effort. 

I Would have no problem with combining 1-4A in to 2 classes. I would like to see teams like Cocoa and BTW move up to 5A. I say that because they are the most winning teams in 4A. I think they could hang with some of the better 5A teams, and it is a shame they play in a weaker class. You could even add some privates to the list. And no, I don't want to penalize teams just because they are strong in their class.

[OldSchoolLion]

22 minutes ago, Cat_Scratch said:

Looks like a lot of work went into your response.  Appreciate all the effort. 

I Would have no problem with combining 1-4A in to 2 classes. I would like to see teams like Cocoa and BTW move up to 5A. I say that because they are the most winning teams in 4A. I think they could hang with some of the better 5A teams, and it is a shame they play in a weaker class. You could even add some privates to the list. And no, I don't want to penalize teams just because they are strong in their class.

Did you check out those 2010 playoff brackets?  If so, is it just me or are those much more intriguing that today?

Whenever we make these splits/changes in classes, it can create opportunities for a class to get left very thin.  One would hope if a team is dominating year after year, they would move up. 

In 2002, Pahokee was in Class 2A.  They were competing against the likes of Bolles, Chaminade, Madison County, South Sumter(who was strong back then), and Monsignor Pace.  In 2003, 2A got split into 2A and 2B, and Pahokee went to 2B.  If not for a 7-point loss in 2005, Pahokee would have the state record with 6 consecutive state championships between 2003-2008.  Most of their playoff games during this span were not even close.  In 2009, Bolles and Chaminade moved down to 2B, ending Pahokee's reign.    

In the old days, things seemed to work on the honor system.  Except for Class A, it was almost unheard of for a team to appear in 3 straight state title games.  If a team was good enough, they would move up. 

For me, anytime a team has won 3 state championships in a row or appeared in 4 straight state championship games in the same class, it's probably time to start thinking about moving up, especially in the lower classes.  Either of those feats is pretty rare.  No team in the highest 2 classes(at the time) has ever won three state titles in a row. The "problem" historically has been when you have a team(s) in the lower classes that is dominating and does not move up. 

That said, Booker T would ideally already be in 5A.  Both Chaminade and Cocoa will likely reach their third championship games in a row next year, so it would be nice if both moved up in class at the same time.    

Some of what we are seeing today has happened in the past.  Back in the late in the late 80's, Godby and Clewiston moved up to 4A, leaving Suwannee wide open to reel off 4 straight state titles in 3A.  They won the 4 championship games by a combined score of 150-46.

In the mid 90's, 3A had a lot movement, leaving it weak and ripe for domination by Union County, who proceeded to reel off 3 straight state titles. As we have made more classes, the"problem" with the lower classes seems to be magnified.  If we do not actively manage things, it may be a matter of time before we have another Pahokee.  

 

[OldSchoolLion]

Below is how the top 23 teams(the teams that did not have losing records during the regular season) in 1A fared versus 4A competition this year.  28 wins and 6 losses.  Only 2 of the 6 losses were bad blowouts, and one of those involved Cocoa.

I bet if you took the top 20 or so teams from 4A, the top 20 or so teams from 1A, and the few good public schools from 2A/3A (Taylor County, Taylor, Fort White and Moore Haven) and put them all together, you would have a very competitive class.  

Then if you took the remaining public schools from 1A-4A and put them in another class, sure you would have some really weak teams, but at least they could be somewhat competitive.  And with a relegation system, teams could migrate between the two classes as they improve/decline.

Frostproof

lost to Avon Park 6-0

beat Teneroc 28-8 

beat Mulberry 22-0

beat Lake Highland Prep 22-21

 

Lafayette

beat PK Yonge 49-26

 

Wildwood

beat PK Yonge 30-2

beat Umatilla 22-14

beat Interlachen 29-22

beat The Villages Charter 42-35

 

Pahokee

beat Glades Central 33-27

loses to Cocoa 45-0

 

Madison County

beat Dunnellon 24-21

 

Union County

beat Interlachen 29-21

 

Baker

beat Rutherford 32-21

beat S Walton 35-7

 

Holmes County

beat Walton 54-14

beat Marianna 31-7

 

Chipley

beat Marianna 21-17

lost to Walton 48-34

 

Blountstown

beat Walton 48-14

 

Cottondale

beat North Bay Haven Academy 42-22

 

Port St Joe 

beat Marianna 7-6 (OT)

beat Rutherford 27-10

beat Walton 41-9

beat S Walton 37-0

 

Hawthorne

beat Interlachen 16-14

beat PK Yonge 46-20

 

Franklin County

lost to North Bay Haven Academy 20-0

 

Fort Meade

lost to Avon Park 41-7

beat Tenoroc 48-0

 

Bozeman

beat S Walton 63-28

beat North Bay Havenn Academy 42-14

 

Branford

beat PK Yonge 14-6

 

Freeport

lost to Walton 37-34

[OldSchoolLion]

Imagine if 4A looked like this...

With this scheme, it makes northern FL much more competitive in the lower classes (especially Region 2, ie Fort White played Bradford very close in regular season)  and moves 2A/3A more closely to private school exclusivity, which some may find attractive.  These 1A schools below have shown they can hang with most 4A schools, and am confident the five 2A/3A teams could as well.  I understand some may never support this, but it is nice to dream.

Here is the breakdown of the teams below:

4A-23 teams

3A-4 teams

2A-1 team

1A-16 teams

 

Region 1-12 teams

Marianna (4A)

North Bay Haven Academy (4A)

Taylor County (3A)

Port St Joe (1A)

Cottondale (1A)

Blountstown (1A)

Baker (1A)

Holmes County (1A)

Franklin County (1A)

Chipley (1A)

Madison County (1A)

Dixie County (1A)

 

Region 2 - 12 teams (11 if Raines moves up, which they could/should)

Dunnellon (4A)

West Nassau (4A)

Trenton (4A)

Raines (4A) 

Bradford (4A)

Taylor(Pierson) (3A)

Fort White (3A)

Union County (1A)

Wildwood (1A)

Lafayette (1A)

Hawthorne (1A)

Crescent City (1A)

 

Region 3 - 11 teams (10 if Cocoa moves up, which they could/should)

Cocoa (4A)  

Cocoa Beach (4A)

Lake Highland Prep (4A)

Mount Dora (4A)

Pahokee (4A)

Glades Central (4A)

Avon Park (4A)

Lake Placid (4A)

Moore Haven (2A)

Frostproof (1A)

Fort Meade (1A)

 

Region 4 - 9 teams

University (4A)

North Broward Prep (4A)

Coral Springs Charter (4A)

Monsignor Pace (4A)

Gulliver Prep (4A)

Booker T Washington (4A)

Bishop Verot (4A)

Key West (4A)

Marathon (3A)

 

[Cat_Scratch]

Pahokee, Glades Central, Clewiston and a lot of the south Dade teams have seen the glory days. 

I remember some good games with Monsignor Pace and G Central back a few years ago. There are still some good 4A teams in the glades area. Just that they have to go through BTW to make it out of the regional most years. University was lucky BTW didn't make the playoffs.

Realignment is coming in 19. I can see some 4A teams making some changes to get into 5A just to get in to a regional brackets.

[OldSchoolLion]

1 hour ago, Cat_Scratch said:

Pahokee, Glades Central, Clewiston and a lot of the south Dade teams have seen the glory days. 

I remember some good games with Monsignor Pace and G Central back a few years ago. There are still some good 4A teams in the glades area. Just that they have to go through BTW to make it out of the regional most years. University was lucky BTW didn't make the playoffs.

Realignment is coming in 19. I can see some 4A teams making some changes to get into 5A just to get in to a regional brackets.

Whatever happened to Clewiston?  About 10 years ago they just fell off the face of the earth.  They had some really competitive teams back in the early 2000's and held their own with the privates in 2A.  I remember Quorey Payne play...great athlete.

 

[s1nglewing]

On 1/27/2018 at 10:43 AM, OldSchoolLion said:

Here is the breakdown...the short answer, 4A has a lot of really  weak teams, especially in the northern part of the state.  Only two schools had really tough schedules-Edison and Booker T Washington-each playing a number of the south Florida powerhouses.  Otherwise, none of the schools below had particularly tough schedules, ie no OOS games, substantial amount of games vs good larger schools, etc  If they allow any more teams to migrate, this class could get even less competitive.

Interestingly, 20 of 34 1A teams had winning records, versus only 15 of 48 4A teams.  There are about 90 public schools amongst classes 1A-4A.   About 40% have winning records. 

It would be interesting if you could split the 90 into 2 classes of about 45 each with the better schools in one class.  Then use a relegation system where teams can migrate between the two classes as they improve or decline over the years.  2A and 3A are nearly all private schools anyway, so pulling the few public schools out of them would not have much impact.    

4A North FL

Andrew Jackson-8 losing seasons in a row; demolished in most games this season

Atlantic/Port Orange-4 losing seasons in past 5; demolished in most games

Fernandina Beach-no winning season in past 9

Gadsden County-no winning seasons in past 5

Interlachen-7 losing seasons in a row

Keystone Heights- 4 losing seasons in past 5

Marianna-3 winning seasons in past 10

North Bay Haven Academy-no winning season in past 5

PK Yonge-has not had a winning season in past 10

Rutherford-8 losing seasons in a row

Santa Fe-up and down record; got demolished in many games this season, including to 3A schools 

South Sumter-historically strong team; played challenging schedule, but not outrageous 

South Walton-up and down record

Villages Charter-up and down record; very weak schedule this year

Walton-up and down record; demolished by Port St Joe and Blountstown

Wolfson-10 losing seasons in a row

 

4A Central FL

Astronaut-4 losing seasons in past 5

Cocoa Beach-up and down record

Cypress Creek-first season of football; got demolished in most games

Lake Placid-7 losing seasons prior to this one

Mulberry-9 losing seasons in a row

Tenoroc-9 losing seasons in past 10

Umatilla-3 losing seasons in a row

 

4A South FL

Bishop Verot-up and down record

Booker T Washington-historically strong team; played brutal south FL schedule

Coral Springs Charter-up and down record

Edison-up and down record; played brutal Miami schedule

Gateway Charter-no winning season in past 10

Keys Gate-4 losing seasons in past 5

Labelle-no winning season in past 10

Lasalle-up and down record

Oasis-6 losing seasons in a row

Pine Crest-up and down record

I can speak on some of these north teams - Gadsden County couldn't have had any losing seasons since 2017 was their first; North Bay Haven is a glorified Rocky Bayou without the "Christian" tag - if you know what that means; Rutherford has a culture that needs a change and so far no one has been able to make it happen; South Walton is a typical small school talent roller coaster; Walton is coached by a wanna-be Nick Saban less the ability - tons of talent at DeFuniak but the coach still cherry-picks opponents (and still can't win).

[OldSchoolLion]

1 hour ago, s1nglewing said:

I can speak on some of these north teams - Gadsden County couldn't have had any losing seasons since 2017 was their first; North Bay Haven is a glorified Rocky Bayou without the "Christian" tag - if you know what that means; Rutherford has a culture that needs a change and so far no one has been able to make it happen; South Walton is a typical small school talent roller coaster; Walton is coached by a wanna-be Nick Saban less the ability - tons of talent at DeFuniak but the coach still cherry-picks opponents (and still can't win).

Thanks S1nglewing

By "Gadsden" I meant East Gadsden.   Sorry for the confusion.

Is it just coincidence that the area 1A schools are stronger (or so it seems)?  

[s1nglewing]

East Gadsden was rarely any good. 2017 was a typical season.

[MuckCityChamp]

On 2/5/2018 at 1:07 AM, OldSchoolLion said:

Whatever happened to Clewiston?  About 10 years ago they just fell off the face of the earth.  They had some really competitive teams back in the early 2000's and held their own with the privates in 2A.  I remember Quorey Payne play...great athlete.

 

Politics ran away some good Coaches and players from Clewiston. Nearby Moore Haven benefited from good athletes transferring from Clewiston.