Was 2017 the Worst in Playoff History for 1A-4A? See the Numbers

[OldSchoolLion]

Below is a comparison of average point differentials in playoff games over the past two years.  For example, this year’s 8 semifinal games in Classes 1A-4A were decided by point totals of 40, 35, 41, 46, 21, 38, 20, and 18, for an average point differential of 32 points per game.

I have also provided some historical data for perspective.  As you will see, the numbers for 1A-4A this year were extreme.  I don’t recall anything even remotely close in the history of FL hs football.  Excluding state title games, 26/56, or 46% of 1A-4A playoff games were decided by 35 points or more and only 5/56(2 in 3A and 1 in each in the other 3 classes) , or 11% of playoff games were decided by 7 points or less. 

It is rare to have a year where at least half of the state semifinals in the lower classes would not be decided by 14 points or less.  2014 was such a year, but even then 3 of 8 state semifinals were decided by 14 points or less.  This year 1A-4A had none, which is probably unprecedented.   

Was this year a one-off?   If this year was supposed to reflect an improvement in parity for the lower classes, the results were not supportive.  

2017

Semifinals (1A-4A=32) (5A-8A=16)  

Regional finals (1A-4A=28) (5A-8A=18)

Regional semifinals (1A-4A=29) (5A-8A=13)

 

2016

Semifinals (1A-4A=14) (5A-8A=21)

Regional finals (1A-4A=11) (5A-8A=17)

Regional semifinals (1A-4A=30) (5A-8A=16)

 

The first number below is the average point differential for 1A-4A state semifinal games from that year, and the second number is the same for 5A-8A games.

2015 19/21

2014 23/18

2013 17/11

2012 19/16

 

The first number below is the average point differential for 1A-4A state semifinal games from that year, and the second number is the same for 5A-6A games.  There were no 7A/8A classes at that time.

2002 17/16

2001 13/16

2000 19/6

1999 11/14

[nolebull813]

The answer was yes it was the worst. It is because the classes are so watered down that too many crappy teams make the playoffs and then get killed because they weren't supposed to be there in the first place. 

It's a greed thing where the FHSAA makes more money off more gates. If they chopped 2 classes there goes all that money from all those playoff gates. 

 

[Joshua Wilson]

27 minutes ago, nolebull813 said:

The answer was yes it was the worst. It is because the classes are so watered down that too many crappy teams make the playoffs and then get killed because they weren't supposed to be there in the first place. 

It's a greed thing where the FHSAA makes more money off more gates. If they chopped 2 classes there goes all that money from all those playoff gates. 

 

What proof do you have for this? 

Do you even realize how the FHSAA operates? Do you know it is committees and Board of Directors that make these decisions, not the staff that runs the offices in Gainesville? If you tell me the staff of 20-25 are the ones making the decisions for this, I won't be shocked, but it is far from the truth.

I actually welcome you to come up there to a Board of Directors meeting the next time they have one... April 30th to be exact!

[Joshua Wilson]

5 hours ago, OldSchoolLion said:

Below is a comparison of average point differentials in playoff games over the past two years.  For example, this year’s 8 semifinal games in Classes 1A-4A were decided by point totals of 40, 35, 41, 46, 21, 38, 20, and 18, for an average point differential of 32 points per game.

I have also provided some historical data for perspective.  As you will see, the numbers for 1A-4A this year were extreme.  I don’t recall anything even remotely close in the history of FL hs football.  Excluding state title games, 26/56, or 46% of 1A-4A playoff games were decided by 35 points or more and only 5/56(2 in 3A and 1 in each in the other 3 classes) , or 11% of playoff games were decided by 7 points or less. 

It is rare to have a year where at least half of the state semifinals in the lower classes would not be decided by 14 points or less.  2014 was such a year, but even then 3 of 8 state semifinals were decided by 14 points or less.  This year 1A-4A had none, which is probably unprecedented.   

Was this year a one-off?   If this year was supposed to reflect an improvement in parity for the lower classes, the results were not supportive.  

2017

Semifinals (1A-4A=32) (5A-8A=16)  

Regional finals (1A-4A=28) (5A-8A=18)

Regional semifinals (1A-4A=29) (5A-8A=13)

 

2016

Semifinals (1A-4A=14) (5A-8A=21)

Regional finals (1A-4A=11) (5A-8A=17)

Regional semifinals (1A-4A=30) (5A-8A=16)

 

The first number below is the average point differential for 1A-4A state semifinal games from that year, and the second number is the same for 5A-8A games.

2015 19/21

2014 23/18

2013 17/11

2012 19/16

 

The first number below is the average point differential for 1A-4A state semifinal games from that year, and the second number is the same for 5A-6A games.  There were no 7A/8A classes at that time.

2002 17/16

2001 13/16

2000 19/6

1999 11/14

1

You got to remember and put a star next to the 2017 season overall... a Hurricane that killed two weeks of the season, teams that got worn down trying to make up games... some teams were just totally gassed out by the time playoffs got here. 

[nolebull813]

1 hour ago, Joshua Wilson said:

What proof do you have for this? 

Do you even realize how the FHSAA operates? Do you know it is committees and Board of Directors that make these decisions, not the staff that runs the offices in Gainesville? If you tell me the staff of 20-25 are the ones making the decisions for this, I won't be shocked, but it is far from the truth.

I actually welcome you to come up there to a Board of Directors meeting the next time they have one... April 30th to be exact!

So how come every time there is a meeting there are coaches and ADs griping and complaining? All the time. People are always pissed. 

So if the FHSAA doesn't do anything then what are they getting paid for? Dishing out punishment? That's it? 

[nolebull813]

1 hour ago, Joshua Wilson said:

You got to remember and put a star next to the 2017 season overall... a Hurricane that killed two weeks of the season, teams that got worn down trying to make up games... some teams were just totally gassed out by the time playoffs got here. 

What does that have to do with all the teams across the board getting blown out? It wasn't a few games. It was damn near everyone of them. And you act like the crappy teams were the only ones getting gassed. 

You should be a politician. These fake responses give no help or insight on how to help the problem. The model sucks. There are too many classes and participation trophies being handed out. It's not right. The playoffs in other states are so exciting and competitive all the way through. 

You could have predicted every state title game in 1A to 4A. No excitement. 

It needs to change and people like you need to lead the charge. 

[DisabledAccount]

2 minutes ago, nolebull813 said:

So how come every time there is a meeting there are coaches and ADs griping and complaining? All the time. People are always pissed. 

So if the FHSAA doesn't do anything then what are they getting paid for? Dishing out punishment? That's it? 

Nolebull 

 

Never will everyone be happy and teams these days will complain if system doesn't benefit them and they need to face facts 

 

Not every team will make the playoffs, if you miss playoffs play better next year

 

Instead they rather just make their route easier by complaining until someone hands them a cookie crumb

[DisabledAccount]

2 minutes ago, nolebull813 said:

What does that have to do with all the teams across the board getting blown out? It wasn't a few games. It was damn near everyone of them. And you act like the crappy teams were the only ones getting gassed. 

You should be a politician. These fake responses give no help or insight on how to help the problem. The model sucks. There are too many classes and participation trophies being handed out. It's not right. The playoffs in other states are so exciting and competitive all the way through. 

You could have predicted every state title game in 1A to 4A. No excitement. 

It needs to change and people like you need to lead the charge. 

The teams whining is why we have 8 classifications 

[gatorman-uf]

Just curious, but how many teams were in the FHSAA in the 1960s-1990s in each classification?
1968-1984 there were 4 state champions (16 years)
1985-1998 there were 5 state champions (13 years)
1999-2002 there were 6 state champions (3 years)
2003-2004 there were 7 state champions (2 years)
2005-Present there are 8 state champions (13 years)
----
I will keep posting it:
1A Stays the same
2A-5A require 60 teams (15 per region) (use a better point system)
6A (3 divisions, 32 districts, top 3 district records make the playoffs, division is determined by size in district with biggest school being division 1, next division 2, and last division 3). 

https://floridahsfootball.com/forums/index.php?/topic/3225-my-suggestion-for-a-new-playoffclassifications/

 

[Joshua Wilson]

17 hours ago, nolebull813 said:

So how come every time there is a meeting there are coaches and ADs griping and complaining? All the time. People are always pissed. 

So if the FHSAA doesn't do anything then what are they getting paid for? Dishing out punishment? That's it? 

They are there to administer the rules that are in place, provide guidance, conduct championships... way more than you think NoleBull. And if anyone is complaining, they need to be coming to these meetings which they are welcome to do. Easier to get behind a keyboard and complain over showing up somewhere to talk to their peers directly. 

[Joshua Wilson]

17 hours ago, nolebull813 said:

What does that have to do with all the teams across the board getting blown out? It wasn't a few games. It was damn near everyone of them. And you act like the crappy teams were the only ones getting gassed. 

You should be a politician. These fake responses give no help or insight on how to help the problem. The model sucks. There are too many classes and participation trophies being handed out. It's not right. The playoffs in other states are so exciting and competitive all the way through. 

You could have predicted every state title game in 1A to 4A. No excitement. 

It needs to change and people like you need to lead the charge. 

Look if the FHSAA  tried to fix everything single thing that is wrong all at once, we be back at square one... going no where.

They are discussing ways to handle classifications in the future. 

Think about this for a second.... a 3A Fort White team is not the same as 3A Chaminade-Madonna team. Why? One is rural and one is in metro area. The FHSAA knows there are issues, but the staff can't just snap their fingers and make things go poof and be fixed. It takes changes in policy. Policy changes start in the advisory committees. Usually policy changes take two years to happen unless they fast track it which doesn't always happen. 

[DisabledAccount]

3 minutes ago, Joshua Wilson said:

Look if the FHSAA  tried to fix everything single thing that is wrong all at once, we be back at square one... going no where.

They are discussing ways to handle classifications in the future. 

Think about this for a second.... a 3A Fort White team is not the same as 3A Chaminade-Madonna team. Why? One is rural and one is in metro area. The FHSAA knows there are issues, but the staff can't just snap their fingers and make things go poof and be fixed. It takes changes in policy. Policy changes start in the advisory committees. Usually policy changes take two years to happen unless they fast track it which doesn't always happen. 

Could we possibly get a rural and urban type of classifications at some point? 

[DisabledAccount]

8 minutes ago, Joshua Wilson said:

They are there to administer the rules that are in place, provide guidance, conduct championships... way more than you think NoleBull. And if anyone is complaining, they need to be coming to these meetings which they are welcome to do. Easier to get behind a keyboard and complain over showing up somewhere to talk to their peers directly. 

Most ones complaining are ones who are just not good enough to win without having a system catered to them 

 

I see it on twitter and laugh at most of it 

 

Not all but i would say more than half the people complaining are only complaining to try and put system at fault for their teams inability to win a championship 

[OldSchoolLion]

2 hours ago, gatorman-uf said:

Just curious, but how many teams were in the FHSAA in the 1960s-1990s in each classification?
1968-1984 there were 4 state champions (16 years)
1985-1998 there were 5 state champions (13 years)
1999-2002 there were 6 state champions (3 years)
2003-2004 there were 7 state champions (2 years)
2005-Present there are 8 state champions (13 years)
----
I will keep posting it:
1A Stays the same
2A-5A require 60 teams (15 per region) (use a better point system)
6A (3 divisions, 32 districts, top 3 district records make the playoffs, division is determined by size in district with biggest school being division 1, next division 2, and last division 3). 

https://floridahsfootball.com/forums/index.php?/topic/3225-my-suggestion-for-a-new-playoffclassifications/

 

..some interesting background

In the early days, when there were 4 classes, most of the private schools were in 1A.  You had a handful of the better private schools in the classes above, but they were kept "under control" by the tough competition.  For instance, in the 70's, Chaminade and Bolles played in 3A.  Between 1970-1985, no private school won a state title outside 1A. 

That changed in 1986, when Bolles won the 2A state title, one year after the increase to 5 classes.  Ever since, as the total number of classes have increased, there has been a gradual stratification of the private schools.   In the 90's it was common to have 2 private school state champions(1A and 2A).  In 2003, when we shifted to 7 classes, we had 3 private school state champions.(1A, 2A and 3A).  

From 2008-2010, 7 of the 8 state finalists in 1A-4A were private schools and Aquinas was a finalist in 5A 2 of those 3 years.  In 2013, American Heritage won the 5A state title.  Now you had very strong private schools in  8A(Columbus), 7A(Aquinas), 5A(AHP), 4ABolles, plus the loaded 3A and 2A classes.  

As the lower classes have become smaller in size, and the strength of individual upper classes have become diluted, and the private schools have become spread out, it has allowed for certain private schools to dominate.   Now add the variable of the loose transfer rules and.... it is a matter of time before we have 5 private school champions.  It nearly happened in 2014 and 2016. 

 

[gatorman-uf]

On 2/2/2018 at 6:52 PM, Joshua Wilson said:

What proof do you have for this? 

Do you even realize how the FHSAA operates? Do you know it is committees and Board of Directors that make these decisions, not the staff that runs the offices in Gainesville? If you tell me the staff of 20-25 are the ones making the decisions for this, I won't be shocked, but it is far from the truth.

I actually welcome you to come up there to a Board of Directors meeting the next time they have one... April 30th to be exact!

The staff does give opinions and does suggest improvements. Frank Beasley is doing a great job  in his role, but don't try and tell me for one second he wasn't the leading crusader behind the change to the power point system and that it organically came out of a committee of coaches. Not buying it. 

You say they are making changes slowly, I would argue then they make their changes without thought. They don't run the numbers. Where was a full fledged running of the numbers for all classifications for the power points? They want coaches to vote on something without showing what is going to happen. Even the newest thing of raising all losses by 5 points, they haven't run the numbers for to show what the effects would actually be even on this year's playoffs. 

Again, explain to me how adding 2 additional teams in 1A-4A makes the playoffs more interesting? How does this solve the problem that the proponents of the power point system said would solve that unqualified teams made the playoffs? Why not just make it, if you have above a 500 record you are in, because that is what we are going to..

And of course the coaches want more playoff spots, they can keep their jobs, use playoff berth to move to a "better" job, or just relieve pressure from the home fans...   
----
The FHSAA does some great things, some silly things in all sports. I will continually say a promotion/relegation system would be beneficial especially in sports like Volleyball and Soccer.

[Joshua Wilson]

1 hour ago, gatorman-uf said:

The staff does give opinions and does suggest improvements. Frank Beasley is doing a great job  in his role, but don't try and tell me for one second he wasn't the leading crusader behind the change to the power point system and that it organically came out of a committee of coaches. Not buying it. 

You say they are making changes slowly, I would argue then they make their changes without thought. They don't run the numbers. Where was a full fledged running of the numbers for all classifications for the power points? They want coaches to vote on something without showing what is going to happen. Even the newest thing of raising all losses by 5 points, they haven't run the numbers for to show what the effects would actually be even on this year's playoffs. 

Again, explain to me how adding 2 additional teams in 1A-4A makes the playoffs more interesting? How does this solve the problem that the proponents of the power point system said would solve that unqualified teams made the playoffs? Why not just make it, if you have above a 500 record you are in, because that is what we are going to..

And of course the coaches want more playoff spots, they can keep their jobs, use playoff berth to move to a "better" job, or just relieve pressure from the home fans...   
----
The FHSAA does some great things, some silly things in all sports. I will continually say a promotion/relegation system would be beneficial especially in sports like Volleyball and Soccer.

You are right Frank was a proponent behind the changes. It was HIS JOB to do so as assigned by his higher-ups as well as member schools. He spent months looking at various models. 

The points system did make things exciting and drove more talk into the sport. Had we been doing the same thing we have done for years, excitement wouldn't be there.

As for your thoughts on promotion/relegation, I am hearing rumblings your thoughts might be gaining steam, but that is just that. I can't confirm on that, but I have to say you have generated some talk about that.

[OldSchoolLion]

On 2/2/2018 at 6:55 PM, Joshua Wilson said:

You got to remember and put a star next to the 2017 season overall... a Hurricane that killed two weeks of the season, teams that got worn down trying to make up games... some teams were just totally gassed out by the time playoffs got here. 

Polk County got pounded by 3 major hurricanes in 2004 and both Lakeland and Lake Gibson made the finals that year.  Not to minimize what happened this year, but I don't think it had a major impact on 1A-4A this season.  

This decline in competition has been coming on for the past 15 years.  Look at the data below.  For many years, it was rare to see the same team coming back to the title game three years in a row...not anymore.  Why?  ...see the end of my last post  

1973-2002 Teams Appearing in Title Games 3 Years or More in a Row

Glades Central (3A)

Suwanee (3A)

Union County (3A)

NFC (1A)

University Christian (1A)

Glades Day (1A)

 

2003-Present (FL went to 7 classes in 2003) - Teams Appearing in Title Games 3 Years or More in a Row

Apopka (8A) 

St Thomas Aquinas-did it twice (5A and 7A)

Armwood-did it twice (4A and 6A)

Miami Central (6A)

American Heritage/Plantation (5A) - not 3 years in a row, but did do 4 appearances in 5 years

Lakeland (5A)

ST Thomas Aquinas (5A)

Bolles(4A)

Booker T Washington (4A)

Pahokee (2B)

Trinity Christian (2A)

 

Prior to 2003, I don't believe there had a eever been a class title game with the same teams three years in a row.  Since 2003...

Title Games for 3 Years or More in a Row

Armwood vs Central in 6A

Lakeland vs St Thomas in 5A

Bolles vs Booker T in 4A

 

Why do people love March madness?  ...partly because of the allure of the "Cinderella story" and the upsets that occur.  Things are becoming more and more predictable in some of the classes in our playoffs because of the lack depth of competitive teams.  It is more important to "win" than to play in a competitive league.  

 

 

 

[Cocoa2010]

1 hour ago, OldSchoolLion said:

Polk County got pounded by 3 major hurricanes in 2004 and both Lakeland and Lake Gibson made the finals that year.  Not to minimize what happened this year, but I don't think it had a major impact on 1A-4A this season.  

This decline in competition has been coming on for the past 15 years.  Look at the data below.  For many years, it was rare to see the same team coming back to the title game three years in a row...not anymore.  Why?  ...see the end of my last post  

1973-2002 Teams Appearing in Title Games 3 Years or More in a Row

Glades Central (3A)

Suwanee (3A)

Union County (3A)

NFC (1A)

University Christian (1A)

Glades Day (1A)

 

2003-Present (FL went to 7 classes in 2003) - Teams Appearing in Title Games 3 Years or More in a Row

Apopka (8A) 

St Thomas Aquinas-did it twice (5A and 7A)

Armwood-did it twice (4A and 6A)

Miami Central (6A)

American Heritage/Plantation (5A) - not 3 years in a row, but did do 4 appearances in 5 years

Lakeland (5A)

ST Thomas Aquinas (5A)

Bolles(4A)

Booker T Washington (4A)

Pahokee (2B)

Trinity Christian (2A)

 

Prior to 2003, I don't believe there had a eever been a class title game with the same teams three years in a row.  Since 2003...

Title Games for 3 Years or More in a Row

Armwood vs Central in 6A

Lakeland vs St Thomas in 5A

Bolles vs Booker T in 4A

 

Why do people love March madness?  ...partly because of the allure of the "Cinderella story" and the upsets that occur.  Things are becoming more and more predictable in some of the classes in our playoffs because of the lack depth of competitive teams.  It is more important to "win" than to play in a competitive league.  

 

 

 

Cocoa made it to 3 in a row as well back in the old 3A then the new 2A for the following two.

[badbird]

20 hours ago, OldSchoolLion said:

Polk County got pounded by 3 major hurricanes in 2004 and both Lakeland and Lake Gibson made the finals that year.  Not to minimize what happened this year, but I don't think it had a major impact on 1A-4A this season.  

This decline in competition has been coming on for the past 15 years.  Look at the data below.  For many years, it was rare to see the same team coming back to the title game three years in a row...not anymore.  Why?  ...see the end of my last post  

1973-2002 Teams Appearing in Title Games 3 Years or More in a Row

Glades Central (3A)

Suwanee (3A)

Union County (3A)

NFC (1A)

University Christian (1A)

Glades Day (1A)

 

2003-Present (FL went to 7 classes in 2003) - Teams Appearing in Title Games 3 Years or More in a Row

Apopka (8A) 

St Thomas Aquinas-did it twice (5A and 7A)

Armwood-did it twice (4A and 6A)

Miami Central (6A)

American Heritage/Plantation (5A) - not 3 years in a row, but did do 4 appearances in 5 years

Lakeland (5A)

ST Thomas Aquinas (5A)

Bolles(4A)

Booker T Washington (4A)

Pahokee (2B)

Trinity Christian (2A)

 

Prior to 2003, I don't believe there had a eever been a class title game with the same teams three years in a row.  Since 2003...

Title Games for 3 Years or More in a Row

Armwood vs Central in 6A

Lakeland vs St Thomas in 5A

Bolles vs Booker T in 4A

 

Why do people love March madness?  ...partly because of the allure of the "Cinderella story" and the upsets that occur.  Things are becoming more and more predictable in some of the classes in our playoffs because of the lack depth of competitive teams.  It is more important to "win" than to play in a competitive league.  

 

 

 

1982, 1983, 1984, 1985 1A Baker vs Glades Day  

 

Edgewater also lost in the finals 2002, 2003, 2004