Columbiahighfan's preseason preview

[DisabledAccount]

Also slight change of plans 

 

It won't let me post the graphics on here which is crazy because i tested it a week ago and it let me then but for some reason it glitching now 

 

So at 3pm the rankings will be released over on prep gridiron board at this link

 

https://www.prepgridiron.com/topic/10650-columbiahighfan-fl-top-50-annoucement/

[OldSchoolLion]

1 minute ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

Madison had like 25-30 seniors,  that will not just easily be replaced and even the Madison people i talked to expect them to not be as strong as last year 

That makes sense.  Although they may not be as strong, if the coaches did their jobs and have the underclassmen ready, there should not be a huge dropoff, especially if there were no spectacular players amongst the 25-30 seniors from this past season.   

[DisabledAccount]

2 minutes ago, OldSchoolLion said:

That makes sense.  Although they may not be as strong, if the coaches did their jobs and have the underclassmen ready, there should not be a huge dropoff, especially if there were no spectacular players amongst the 25-30 seniors from this past season.   

They will still contend in 1a and might even win 1a again this year 

 

I just don't see them being as successful against larger teams this year like they did last year 

[OldSchoolLion]

42 minutes ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

They will still contend in 1a and might even win 1a again this year 

 

I just don't see them being as successful against larger teams this year like they did last year 

Appreciate the work on the rankings.  Please don't take what I am about to say the wrong way.  They are not directed at you, but to anyone doing rankings.  If we are going to go to the bother of ranking teams, some of whom have not recently met on the field, I think we should at least do a thorough analysis of "why" a team like Madison will not do as well this year.  Will their lines be smaller?  Did some of their anticipated replacement players transfer?  etc, etc  Without such an analysis, I think rankings are just an amusing exercise without basis.

You mention Crestview beat Niceville the past two years as rationale for them being ahead.  Well, Gulf Breeze smoked Crestview in 2016 at Crestview, and in in 2015 and 2017 the two teams were separated by 3 points.  Gulf Breeze was 9-2 in 2016 and 8-3 in 2017, but they are not even ranked in the top 10 of the Panhandle.  If we are going to use head-to-head results for determining rankings, a team like Gulf Breeze not making the list screams for an explanation.  These are simply examples.  My main point is that rankings should involve some sort of methodology to give them validity.  Otherwise, the ranker should give a disclaimer that it is a shot in the dark.          

[DisabledAccount]

20 minutes ago, OldSchoolLion said:

Appreciate the work on the rankings.  Please don't take what I am about to say the wrong way.  They are not directed at you, but to anyone doing rankings.  If we are going to go to the bother of ranking teams, some of whom have not recently met on the field, I think we should at least do a thorough analysis of "why" a team like Madison will not do as well this year.  Will their lines be smaller?  Did some of their anticipated replacement players transfer?  etc, etc  Without such an analysis, I think rankings are just an amusing exercise without basis.

You mention Crestview beat Niceville the past two years as rationale for them being ahead.  Well, Gulf Breeze smoked Crestview in 2016 at Crestview, and in in 2015 and 2017 the two teams were separated by 3 points.  Gulf Breeze was 9-2 in 2016 and 8-3 in 2017, but they are not even ranked in the top 10 of the Panhandle.  If we are going to use head-to-results for determining rankings, a team like Gulf Breeze not making the list screams for an explanation.  These are simply examples.  My main point is that rankings should involve some sort of methodology to give them validity.  Otherwise, the ranker should give a disclaimer that it is a shot in the dark.          

Gulf Breeze was considered for top 10 in panhandle and had i not included the big bend region with the panhandle they would have made it into top 10

 

Truthfully when it comes to considering someone like Gulf Breeze i want to look at 2 things

 

1) do they have a history of making deep runs,  i tend to rank teams higher if i feel they have a good chance to go deep,  Gulf Breeze has done well in regular season but has not had a good history lately of going deep even with these good regular season records

 

Also i look to see for smoke (hype) 

 

A team like Florida High has been talked about a lot when it comes to that region, that gives me impression that something must be behind that hype and considering Florida high did make semifinals last year i see them as a wildcard in that area to make a run

 

Gulf Breeze will definitely be a team i keep a eye on as the season progresses and i could realistically see them getting into the rankings as the season progresses but i have some doubts at this stage

[OldSchoolLion]

11 minutes ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

 

Truthfully when it comes to considering someone like Gulf Breeze i want to look at 2 things

 

1) do they have a history of making deep runs,  i tend to rank teams higher if i feel they have a good chance to go deep,  Gulf Breeze has done well in regular season but has not had a good history lately of going deep even with these good regular season records

 

That is reasonable, but then I question the rationale for Crestview.  Between 1995 and 2015, Crestview only made the playoffs 1 year.  In 2016, St Augustine dominated Crestview in the second round and did the same in the third round in 2017.  In the entire school history, Crestview has made it past the second round 3 times...not exactly a history of deep runs.    

[DisabledAccount]

10 minutes ago, OldSchoolLion said:

That is reasonable, but then I question the rationale for Crestview.  Between 1995 and 2015, Crestview only made the playoffs 1 year.  In 2016, St Augustine dominated Crestview in the second round and did the same in the third round in 2017.  In the entire school history, Crestview has made it past the second round 3 times...not exactly a history of deep runs.    

Your right Crestview until last 2 years have had limited success in playoffs 

[DisabledAccount]

It's tough to compare teams who don't play 

 

Niceville has history of deep runs but lately Crestview been better than them so it's hard to justify ranking niceville over Crestview when most expect them to be close to level of last year 

[OldSchoolLion]

...just a thought.  Prior to 2016, Niceville beat Crestview 8 out of 9 years and we all know the legacy of Niceville.  In 2016, Crestview won by 6 and John Hicks said Niceville played "awful."  Last season, Crestview won handily for the first time.   

So, maybe Crestview has pulled ahead, but with the history between these two teams, I need to see more than 2 data points and a more comprehensive explanation of "close to level."  ...because these teams have been far from level historically. 

Without knowing more, there is no way I would put money down against Niceville in this matchup.  It's intuitive that Niceville will be loaded for bear this year.    

 

[DisabledAccount]

Quick reminder that in 20 minutes the top 50 will soon be released 

 

Here the link to where it will be released 

 

https://www.prepgridiron.com/topic/10650-columbiahighfan-fl-top-50-annoucement/

[DisabledAccount]

I'm about to start releasing honorable mentions over there

 

Feel free to check it out as they are posted

[DisabledAccount]

https://www.prepgridiron.com/topic/10650-columbiahighfan-fl-top-50-annoucement/

[Pipe Dreams]

It’s a solid list. I’d have Wekiva ahead of Apopka, and mayyybe Dr. Phillips, although they seem very close on paper.

Central Florida portion is accurate, I endorse.

[DisabledAccount]

41 minutes ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

https://www.prepgridiron.com/topic/10650-columbiahighfan-fl-top-50-annoucement/

I just finished the full release of the top 50

 

Check out the teams that were ranked 

 

I'll post a list format later on today 

[DisabledAccount]

Just now, Pipe Dreams said:

It’s a solid list. I’d have Wekiva ahead of Apopka, and mayyybe Dr. Phillips, although they seem very close on paper.

Central Florida portion is accurate, I endorse.

I like wekiva i just am hesitant to put them in top 10 of FL until i see them answer the questions about their offense 

[DisabledAccount]

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1U7jfKu0rn1Q86nduskEqtV6B1uAmKbnOXL4SSIMSYoA/edit?usp=drivesdk

 

Here it is in list form

[badbird]

spruce creek 48?  Their coaching staff does a great job with the talent they have but they don't have a lot of talent and the best defensive player transferred out.  They would not be any where near my top 50 unless it was top 50 get the most out of the least.

 

Buchholz 46?  Oh wait they play Columbia and that gives them the 100 plus boost in the rankings

[badbird]

west orange 38 awful high to start the year but they could get there.  With games vs Rockledge, Dp, Apopka, Jones, and Wekiva making the playoffs won't be an easy task.

[DisabledAccount]

4 minutes ago, badbird said:

spruce creek 48?  Their coaching staff does a great job with the talent they have but they don't have a lot of talent and the best defensive player transferred out.  They would not be any where near my top 50 unless it was top 50 get the most out of the least.

 

Buchholz 46?  Oh wait they play Columbia and that gives them the 100 plus boost in the rankings

Buchholz got a pretty good qb and might be second best team in 7a region 1 or at the very least should win their district 

 

Spruce Creek i will admit was a hit or miss gamble i took putting in there

 

I will either look like a genius or a fool

[DisabledAccount]

6 minutes ago, badbird said:

spruce creek 48?  Their coaching staff does a great job with the talent they have but they don't have a lot of talent and the best defensive player transferred out.  They would not be any where near my top 50 unless it was top 50 get the most out of the least.

 

Buchholz 46?  Oh wait they play Columbia and that gives them the 100 plus boost in the rankings

But seriously if any team in Gainesville is worth keeping a eye on it's Eastside 

 

Got a stud at qb and one of biggest OL in FL 

[DisabledAccount]

4 minutes ago, badbird said:

west orange 38 awful high to start the year but they could get there.  With games vs Rockledge, Dp, Apopka, Jones, and Wekiva making the playoffs won't be an easy task.

They should beat Jones and i think they could upset at least one of those other 4

[OldSchoolLion]

...some random thoughts/questions.

-Lakeland appears to be in a decline based on past few years of data.  What has happened to change that and justify such a high ranking?

-Palm Beach Central was 2-8 in 2015 and 3-7 in 2016 and has 2 playoff wins in school history....and now one of the top 20 teams in the state?   ...banking too much on transfers to gel and make an instant contender? 

[DisabledAccount]

2 minutes ago, OldSchoolLion said:

...some random thoughts/questions.

-Lakeland appears to be in a decline based on past few years of data.  What has happened to change that and justify such a high ranking?

-Palm Beach Central was 2-8 in 2015 and 3-7 in 2016 and has 2 playoff wins in school history....and now one of the top 20 teams in the state?   ...banking too much on transfers to gel and make an instant contender? 

Even though Palm Beach Central lost the qb and RB they originally had transfer in from Oxbridge I'm not aware of anyone else transferring out

 

As for why they seem to be a program on the rise in Palm Beach County 

[DisabledAccount]

6 minutes ago, OldSchoolLion said:

...some random thoughts/questions.

-Lakeland appears to be in a decline based on past few years of data.  What has happened to change that and justify such a high ranking?

-Palm Beach Central was 2-8 in 2015 and 3-7 in 2016 and has 2 playoff wins in school history....and now one of the top 20 teams in the state?   ...banking too much on transfers to gel and make an instant contender? 

 

This speaks quite a bit into one of reasons i have Lakeland high up there,  they got some studs this year 

 

That along with a elite coach at the helm and plant and viera not as strong as past years might open that region up for Lakeland 

 

Lakeland had they gotten past Plant would likely had made state last year so if anything they seem to be on a upswing IMO

[OldSchoolLion]

38 minutes ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

Even though Palm Beach Central lost the qb and RB they originally had transfer in from Oxbridge I'm not aware of anyone else transferring out

 

As for why they seem to be a program on the rise in Palm Beach County 

Sorry if I am missing something here, but 2-8 in 2015 and 3-7 in 2016 to last year's result is not a steady rise in performance.