Columbiahighfan's preseason preview

[DisabledAccount]

1 minute ago, OldSchoolLion said:

Sorry if I am missing something here, but 2-8 in 2015 and 3-7 in 2016 to last year's result is not a steady rise in performacne.   

I didn't say it was a steady rise

 

Some teams rise slowly over time and get better over a few years

 

Others (ironically the same type of team that fell apart and gave them the talent they got now)  rise like a comet

 

Question is will PBC become a powerhouse or will they burn out quickly 

 

Time will tell but the talent on that roster is undeniable at least for 2018

[badbird]

1 hour ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

Buchholz got a pretty good qb and might be second best team in 7a region 1 or at the very least should win their district 

 

Spruce Creek i will admit was a hit or miss gamble i took putting in there

 

I will either look like a genius or a fool

they went 9-1 in regular season but had a very very weak schedule and barely made the playoffs

[OldSchoolLion]

South Dade has shown flashes of brilliance in the past and an ability to compete with some of the best in Miami-Dade.  They were 10-2 last year and have some substantial talent this year.  And with one of the top playmakers in the state, if not the country, on offense (Ladson)....let's put it this way, I would not put money against them in games versus some of the top 50 teams above. 

Frank Ladson 5-star WR

Najeh Baker 2-star WR

Jonathan Denis 4-star OL

Jose Mirabal 3-star OL

Tyler Johnson(Soph) DE UM offer 

Joe Smith 3-star LB   

Jeremiah Jean-Baptiste LB UCF commit

Keshawn Washington(Jr) DB UM commit

Jaiden Francois(Jr) DB UM commit

 

[DisabledAccount]

36 minutes ago, OldSchoolLion said:

South Dade has shown flashes of brilliance in the past and an ability to compete with some of the best in Miami-Dade.  They were 10-2 last year and have some substantial talent this year.  And with one of the top playmakers in the state, if not the country, on offense (Ladson)....let's put it this way, I would not put money against them in games versus some of the top 50 teams above. 

Frank Ladson 5-star WR

Najeh Baker 2-star WR

Jonathan Denis 4-star OL

Jose Mirabal 3-star OL

Tyler Johnson(Soph) DE UM offer 

Joe Smith 3-star LB   

Jeremiah Jean-Baptiste LB UCF commit

Keshawn Washington(Jr) DB UM commit

Jaiden Francois(Jr) DB UM commit

 

I did consider them among a list of other teams 

[DisabledAccount]

1 hour ago, badbird said:

they went 9-1 in regular season but had a very very weak schedule and barely made the playoffs

Their district doesn't look that bad 

 

Sandalwood 

Mandarin 

Flagler Palm Coast 

 

Heck even Deland might be improved 

 

 

Out of curiosity who they play in non conference games? 

[Cat_Scratch]

20 hours ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

Buchholz got a pretty good qb and might be second best team in 7a region 1 or at the very least should win their district 

 

Spruce Creek i will admit was a hit or miss gamble i took putting in there

 

I will either look like a genius or a fool

I like Spruce Creek in there. They've put together some decent seasons in the past. You guys have to remember this is a pre-season list. Just something to get the season going on here. How cares if Cfan has a few misses... it will work itself out SOON. 

Keep an eye out for NSB... they just got a coach that has won the national coaching award 2 times.

[OldSchoolLion]

19 hours ago, OldSchoolLion said:

South Dade has shown flashes of brilliance in the past and an ability to compete with some of the best in Miami-Dade.  They were 10-2 last year and have some substantial talent this year.  And with one of the top playmakers in the state, if not the country, on offense (Ladson)....let's put it this way, I would not put money against them in games versus some of the top 50 teams above. 

Frank Ladson 5-star WR

Najeh Baker 2-star WR

Jonathan Denis 4-star OL

Jose Mirabal 3-star OL

Tyler Johnson(Soph) DE UM offer 

Joe Smith 3-star LB   

Jeremiah Jean-Baptiste LB UCF commit

Keshawn Washington(Jr) DB UM commit

Jaiden Francois(Jr) DB UM commit

 

 

18 hours ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

I did consider them among a list of other teams 

Just curious what justification you used to place Columbia #24 and a team like South Dade outside the ranking and no honorable mention.  In terms of individual talent, on paper, they are far ahead of Columbia this year.  They have 1000 more students.   Since winning the 8A state title in 2013, they have had 3 good years out of 4 and some qualiity wins, ie multiple wins vs Southridge.  They play a much tougher 8A Dade schedule every year and are 72-22 versus 71-25 for Columbia this decade .  They have 16 playoff wins since 2005 vs 10 for Columbia.  Don Drinkhahn was at South Dade for 20+ years and laid a foundation for future success.     

If South Dade is not even worthy of an honorable mention, I cannot see Columbia being amongst the top 25 in the state.  

[DisabledAccount]

15 minutes ago, OldSchoolLion said:

 

Just curious what justification you used to place Columbia #24 and a team like South Dade outside the ranking and no honorable mention.  In terms of individual talent, on paper, they are far ahead of Columbia this year.  They have 1000 more students.   Since winning the 8A state title in 2013, they have had 3 good years out of 4 and some qualiity wins, ie multiple wins vs Southridge.  They play a much tougher 8A Dade schedule every year and are 72-22 versus 71-25 for Columbia this decade .  They have 16 playoff wins since 2005 vs 10 for Columbia.  Don Drinkhahn was at South Dade for 20+ years and laid a foundation for future success.     

If South Dade is not even worthy of an honorable mention, I cannot see Columbia being amongst the top 25 in the state.  

Using that logic of talent on paper i could probably get 20/25 of the top 25 out of 3 counties in South Florida 

 

Again just because i didn't list South Dade as honorable mention don't mean They weren't considered in the list

 

I just didn't feel like having graphics made for all of the teams for honorable mention, i had like 10-20 more teams that would technically be honorable mention but i just didn't make graphics for them

 

 

Another reason is the simple fact that Columbia will have a much easier time piling up wins and going deeper in the playoffs, whether people want to admit it or not a team at 9-1 regular season 99% of the time will be ranked over one at 6-4 even if the 6-4 team faces better teams 

 

Also Deerfield Beach is loaded on paper but how has that worked out for them? 

 

St Thomas Aquinas was most talented team in 7a last year on paper,  how did that work out for them

 

 

Just because a team is better on paper don't mean I'm gonna to rank them over someone who isn't as loaded on paper,  those rivals star rankings don't mean anything on the high school football field,  I've watched 5 stars get outplayed by players who don't have a single offer

[DisabledAccount]

And to answer why Columbia is at 24 is because they are possibly the most talented roster since 2015 and the region is basically as weak now as it was that year 

 

 

This Columbia team should easily win region 1

 

 

 

South Dade will probably finish 3rd in their district behind Miami Southridge and Miami Palmetto who are both more than capable of beating them

 

Depending on the matchup South Dade even with that talent might be lucky to get past 1st round because 8a south is brutal

[OldSchoolLion]

1 hour ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

Using that logic of talent on paper i could probably get 20/25 of the top 25 out of 3 counties in South Florida 

 

Again just because i didn't list South Dade as honorable mention don't mean They weren't considered in the list

 

I just didn't feel like having graphics made for all of the teams for honorable mention, i had like 10-20 more teams that would technically be honorable mention but i just didn't make graphics for them

 

 

Another reason is the simple fact that Columbia will have a much easier time piling up wins and going deeper in the playoffs, whether people want to admit it or not a team at 9-1 regular season 99% of the time will be ranked over one at 6-4 even if the 6-4 team faces better teams 

 

Also Deerfield Beach is loaded on paper but how has that worked out for them? 

 

St Thomas Aquinas was most talented team in 7a last year on paper,  how did that work out for them

 

 

Just because a team is better on paper don't mean I'm gonna to rank them over someone who isn't as loaded on paper,  those rivals star rankings don't mean anything on the high school football field,  I've watched 5 stars get outplayed by players who don't have a single offer

I'll be the first one to say that talent on paper is only one data point and of limited value.  I don't understand the logic of ranking a team in front of another team because they are likely to have a better record at the end of the season.  I also don't understand what place one finishes in their region has anything to do with where they should be ranked in an all-classification poll.  IMO, a team ranked above another should be able to win at least 6 games out of 10 games played on the field against that lower-ranked team.  If rankings cannot help us in some way to predict outcomes, I do not know what use they are other than an ego trip.    

[DisabledAccount]

15 minutes ago, OldSchoolLion said:

I'll be the first one to say that talent on paper is only one data point and of limited value.  I don't understand the logic of ranking a team in front of another team because they are likely to have a better record at the end of the season.  I also don't understand what place one finishes in their region has anything to do with where they should be ranked in an all-classification poll.  IMO, a team ranked above another should be able to win at least 6 games out of 10 games played on the field against that lower-ranked team.  If rankings cannot help us in some way to predict outcomes, I do not know what use they are other than an ego trip.    

Who's to say we couldn't beat South Dade?

 

Not a single game has been played so really all a preseason poll is would be a opinion of where one feels a team will be ranked

 

I never claimed my rankings are perfect but i feel that my rankings for the most part was fair and are going to be as good as anyone else's at this stage

[OldSchoolLion]

2 minutes ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

Who's to say we couldn't beat South Dade?

 

Not a single game has been played so really all a preseason poll is would be a opinion of where one feels a team will be ranked

 

I never claimed my rankings are perfect but i feel that my rankings for the most part was fair and are going to be as good as anyone else's at this stage

You're right, Columbia might very well be able to beat South Dade.  But what specific criteria makes you think they could?  Stating that  this is "possibly the most talented roster since 2015 and the region is basically as weak now as it was that year"  does nothing to convince me they are better than South Dade, or any other team for that matter.  "Most talented roster" is relative.

As a reader, it is nice to be able to understand the rationale used by the author, ie why a certain team was ranked where they are, especially in an all-classification poll with 50 teams.  That is a huge number of teams to rank.  If it is a SWAG (scientific, wild-a_s guess), then just say so.  

I'm not trying pick on you or your work, buddy.  I am simply trying to understand where you are coming from with your rankings, some of which make complete sense, but others not so much...at least not to me.

 

[DisabledAccount]

6 minutes ago, OldSchoolLion said:

You're right, Columbia might very well be able to beat South Dade.  But what specific criteria makes you think they could?  Stating that  this is "possibly the most talented roster since 2015 and the region is basically as weak now as it was that year"  does nothing to convince me they are better than South Dade, or any other team for that matter.  "Most talented roster" is relative.

As a reader, it is nice to be able to understand the rationale used by the author, ie why a certain team was ranked where they are, especially in an all-classification poll with 50 teams.  That is a huge number of teams to rank.  If it is a SWAG (scientific, wild-a_s guess), then just say so.  

I'm not trying pick on you or your work, buddy.  I am simply trying to understand where you are coming from with your rankings, some of which make complete sense, but others not so much...at least not to me.

 

I will admit that some of my rankings are based on hunches, sometimes i hear good things about teams and i get a feel for them

 

I got a good feeling about this Columbia team

 

Young but talented and Athletic qb

 

2 WR with multiple power 5 offers as well as several more very talented but underrated guys leaves that WR postion very deep

 

Not to mention the RB we have is Columbia royalty (his father was RB for our 97 state runner up team) and is a very good RB, good mix of speed and power

 

Defense is very experienced especially at linebacker spot with 3 seniors starting and for first time since 2015 we will not have to replace 4 starters in the secondary,  in fact i think only 1 of the 4 starters from last year won't return this year

 

We also had 2 transfers on defense that should help us in passing game,  one is a OLB/Pass rush specialist and the other is a safety 

 

Our biggest issues in playoffs usually come from our inability to stop opponents from getting tons of passing yards or qb scrambling for mess of yards,  the defense should be much better in both departments this year

 

Quite honestly if we don't make final 4 at minimum this will go down as the biggest underachieving year in my lifetime at columbia, they should finish no less than state semifinals with the amount of talent on this roster

 

We probably need to keep growing on the lines but I'm optimistic considering what I've been seeing through piecing together newspaper clippings throughout the summer and reading up our strengths and weaknesses heading into the season

 

 

I do feel i could say with a straight face that we are capable at our best of defeating the teams ranked below us in my honest opinion 

 

Could i be wrong? Perhaps but I felt good enough to rank them there

 

 

 

But I appreciate constructive criticism and i will take what you said under advisement for future placement on certain teams as the season progresses

[DisabledAccount]

And yes Sometimes i have to take a educated guess on some teams when I'm unable to gather intel on certain areas

 

It much easier to rank during season because at least then i have game results to look over so even if i can't gather intel from first hand sources i can at least look at stats and game results and get a rough observation on how good someone is

[badbird]

Spruce Creek also lost starting QB and RB.  I have no idea what they have behind it but those two accounted for a bunch of yards.

[Hwy17]

14 hours ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

And yes Sometimes i have to take a educated guess on some teams when I'm unable to gather intel on certain areas

 

It much easier to rank during season because at least then i have game results to look over so even if i can't gather intel from first hand sources i can at least look at stats and game results and get a rough observation on how good someone is

Just say you make it up out of thin air, LOL

[DisabledAccount]

3 minutes ago, Hwy17 said:

Just say you make it up out of thin air, LOL

When one has experience it's a educated guess not thin air 

 

But the sad fact is that i can't personally see every single team in the state

 

Hell i can't even see every team in my top 25

 

So i ask around from people around the state to see what i can learn about areas I'm not as familiar with but problem is that not all areas I'm able to gather intel on

 

For example unlike South Florida the metros like Gainesville, Tallahassee, and Jacksonville don't make transfers public so trying to track movement up here is a real pain in the ass and even when you ask around for transfers you struggle to get any response 

 

Things like that works against me when doing preseason rankings, but then again any human poll is gonna have bias because you tend to rank teams you know more about

 

If a South Florida guy did a top 50 a team like Buchholz wouldn't have been ranked but South Dade or Miramar would have been ranked

 

 

But once games start being played it's much easier because i am able to look at results and stats for areas that i couldn't get any info on when i was doing my preseason rankings 

[OldSchoolLion]

1 hour ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

If a South Florida guy did a top 50 a team like Buchholz wouldn't have been ranked but South Dade or Miramar would have been ranked

 

I don't agree.  Someone doing their due diligence would put aside their bias and consider the following in evaluating a team, amongst other things:

• Who is the head coach?  Does the team have coaching continuity this decade? 
• How talented/experienced is their qb?   
• Do they have any big-time playmakers on offense and defense who could dominate a game?
• Does the team have multiple D1 linemen?
• ....regular season records the past 3-5 seasons...relatively consistent or up and down?  ...is record deceiving due to quality of competition? 
• ....playoff performance this decade. Do they demonstrate a consistent ability to peak in the post-season, or do they tend to crash? 
• ...the "Legacy Factor."  Teams like Aquinas, Armwood, Northwestern just know how to win, no matter who they have playing for them.
•  

[DisabledAccount]

5 minutes ago, OldSchoolLion said:

I don't agree.  Someone doing their due diligence would put aside their bias and consider the following in evaluating a team, amongst other things:

• Who is the head coach?  Does the team have coaching continuity this decade? 
• How talented/experienced is their qb?   
• Do they have any big-time playmakers on offense and defense who could dominate a game?
• Does the team have multiple D1 linemen?
• ....regular season records the past 3-5 seasons...relatively consistent or up and down?  ...is record deceiving due to quality of competition? 
• ....playoff performance this decade. Do they demonstrate a consistent ability to peak in the post-season, or do they tend to crash? 
• ...the "Legacy Factor."  Teams like Aquinas, Armwood, Northwestern just know how to win, no matter who they have playing for them.
•  

Perhaps but unless someone does some serious digging they are obviously going to know their area of the state better than other parts of the state

 

I don't think someone would say "I'm gonna rank South dade over Buchholz because south dade is SFL"

 

However if you are a South Florida guy then 99% sure they will know South Dade better than a team like Buchholz and as a result will be a unintentional bias

 

 

[DisabledAccount]

When you know a team very well you tend to know how they play more specifically then someone can learn through secondary sources or looking at data

 

There's always the eye test which is easier to evaluate when you see a team in person that just can't be duplicated 

[OldSchoolLion]

6 minutes ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

Perhaps but unless someone does some serious digging they are obviously going to know their area of the state better than other parts of the state

I don't think someone would say "I'm gonna rank South dade over Buchholz because south dade is SFL"

However if you are a South Florida guy then 99% sure they will know South Dade better than a team like Buchholz and as a result will be a unintentional bias

 

 

Well, if one is going to undertake a Top 50 all-classification poll, I think it necessitates some "serious digging."   With some work, a person could find most, if not all of the information I mentioned above on the internet...even opinions of people from the area, ie local newspaper articles with team previews. 

The only way I might have more information concerning a certain team might be if I know a coach who can give me inside information, and most of us don't know that many coaches who we talk to regularly, unless one is a reporter.  Sure, watching a team might make me familiar with them, but it does little to tell me how they might perform against a certain team from another part of the state.  So what if "my team" is better than ever this year...it's relative.  That is where some serious homework is needed.    

[DisabledAccount]

Miami Carol City, Miami Central, St Thomas Aquinas, Cardinal Gibbons, Miami Northwestern, American Heritage Plantation, Chaminade Madonna

 

Dr Phillips, Dwyer, Lakeland, Apopka,  Wekiva, Armwood

 

Raines, Miami Southridge, Venice, Cocoa, Palm Beach Central, St Augustine, Sanford Seminole, Deerfield Beach, Osceola, Columbus, Columbia

 

Plant, Flagler Palm Coast, Trinity Christian, Immokalee, Mainland, University School, Miami Booker T Washington, Atlantic Delray, Viera, Rockledge

 

Vanguard, Winter Park, Plantation, West Orange, Vero Beach, Crestview, Robert E. Lee, Niceville, Clearwater Central Catholic, Miami Norland

 

Pahokee, Buchholz, Braden River, Spruce Creek, Godby, Madison County

 

 

FL state tiers

[badbird]

had to bring this back up now that the regular season is over.

great job picking Carol City #1.  They proved they were the best this year in the regular season.  Most people had them 5-10.

 

Here are teams you picked that ended up .500 or below

Northwestern #5 ended 5-5 but still probably a top 25 team.  

DP #8 ends 5-5  Tough schedule. 

St Augustine #19 5-5 maybe top 250 not top 50

Immokalee #28 5-5 not good

Norland #44 4-6 tough schedule

Pahokee #46 5-5 tough schedule but not top 50

Spruce Creek #48 4-6 bad pick.  i called this one lol.  

 

Overall not bad just wanted to bring this back up.  pretty cool to look back on it

[DisabledAccount]

9 hours ago, badbird said:

had to bring this back up now that the regular season is over.

great job picking Carol City #1.  They proved they were the best this year in the regular season.  Most people had them 5-10.

 

Here are teams you picked that ended up .500 or below

Northwestern #5 ended 5-5 but still probably a top 25 team.  

DP #8 ends 5-5  Tough schedule. 

St Augustine #19 5-5 maybe top 250 not top 50

Immokalee #28 5-5 not good

Norland #44 4-6 tough schedule

Pahokee #46 5-5 tough schedule but not top 50

Spruce Creek #48 4-6 bad pick.  i called this one lol.  

 

Overall not bad just wanted to bring this back up.  pretty cool to look back on it

I didn't even think about going back to these but since you brought it back up i may go ahead and review what i did from preseason 

 

 

[DisabledAccount]

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1U7jfKu0rn1Q86nduskEqtV6B1uAmKbnOXL4SSIMSYoA/edit?usp=drivesdk

 

I added comments by each of the preseason rankings and my thoughts on the previous placement of them