Transfers - Let's Talk Actual Numbers

[OldSchoolLion]

There are presently 388 varsity hs players in Florida who, according to the 'experts," have the potential to be FBS-level.  45 of them are currently at IMG or St Thomas Aquinas(STA-24, IMG-21).  IMG gets the press for being the national all-star team, but STA actually has more star power on paper!  Of those 388 players, 116 are 4- or 5-star players, and 24 of those 116 are presently at STA or IMG.   

This past season, excluding IMG players, 18% of 4/5-star seniors in Florida had transferred to a school for their senior year.  So, let's assume that 18% of ALL FBS-quality players do the same each year.  And let's assume the IMG and STA players will not be transferring "out."

That leaves us with a pool of 343 players (388-45 at STA and IMG), 92 of which are 4 or 5 stars.   18% of 343 equals 62.  So, based on the assumptions above, in any one year, 62 "FBS quality" players are transferring each year in the state.  And of those 62, 17 are 4 or 5-star players.   

38% of the current 388 FBS-quality players are in Miami-Dade or Broward.  So, it is probably a safe assumption that a large portion of the aforementioned 62 transfers will be taking place in those 2 counties.

Relatively speaking, we are not talking huge numbers here.  We hear about lots of transfers, but should keep in mind that many of these kids are not going to make a great or even good team out of a mediocre one. I could not find a single instance of an individual team getting 10 "D1" transfers.  3 is the norm, and that is for the best teams.   

I do think transfers are making a notable difference in two ways.  First, I think a high-level transfer(s) could be the difference in a matchup between two very good, closely-matched teams.  As an example, Marcus Lafrance, an excellent cornerback at Deerfield Beach, transferred from Ely this past year and intercepted a potential game-winning TD against Chaminade.  Maybe it would not have made a difference..we'll never know.      

Second, in large metro areas, certain fair/good programs may only be losing one or two, high-profile players each year, but if those players are team leaders and their former team had few "great" players to begin with, those losses could be a huge blow.  I believe this is what is happening in places like Broward County.  For example, Dillard lost two high profile players this past season, one to St Thomas(Ingraham) and another to Deerfield Beach(Boyd).  It is hard to quantify the impact that will have on Dillard's team this year from a leadership perspective, but no doubt it is significant.        

 

[Coach]

I know the area where I live (Osceola/Orange County) transfers have had more of an impact hurting those "average" teams more than helping the good teams. 

[OldSchoolLion]

13 minutes ago, Coach said:

I know the area where I live (Osceola/Orange County) transfers have had more of an impact hurting those "average" teams more than helping the good teams. 

..to your point, St Thomas getting 4-star DE Ingraham from Dillard will likely not make a huge difference in the big picture of things at STA, since they are already so loaded with talent, but am guessing his loss at Dillard will be felt much more.   

It's the rich getting richer, and I don't mean that to sound negative toward STA, as if they are intentionally trying to do so.

[DisabledAccount]

47 minutes ago, OldSchoolLion said:

There are presently 388 varsity hs players in Florida who, according to the 'experts," have the potential to be FBS-level.  45 of them are currently at IMG or St Thomas Aquinas(STA-24, IMG-21).  IMG gets the press for being the national all-star team, but STA actually has more star power on paper!  Of those 388 players, 116 are 4- or 5-star players, and 24 of those 116 are presently at STA or IMG.   

This past season, excluding IMG players, 18% of 4/5-star seniors in Florida had transferred to a school for their senior year.  So, let's assume that 18% of ALL FBS-quality players do the same each year.  And let's assume the IMG and STA players will not be transferring "out."

That leaves us with a pool of 343 players (388-45 at STA and IMG), 92 of which are 4 or 5 stars.   18% of 343 equals 62.  So, based on the assumptions above, in any one year, 62 "FBS quality" players are transferring each year in the state.  And of those 62, 17 are 4 or 5-star players.   

38% of the current 388 FBS-quality players are in Miami-Dade or Broward.  So, it is probably a safe assumption that a large portion of the aforementioned 62 transfers will be taking place in those 2 counties.

Relatively speaking, we are not talking huge numbers here.  We hear about lots of transfers, but should keep in mind that many of these kids are not going to make a great or even good team out of a mediocre one. I could not find a single instance of an individual team getting 10 "D1" transfers.  3 is the norm, and that is for the best teams.   

I do think transfers are making a notable difference in two ways.  First, I think a high-level transfer(s) could be the difference in a matchup between two very good, closely-matched teams.  As an example, Marcus Lafrance, an excellent cornerback at Deerfield Beach, transferred from Ely this past year and intercepted a potential game-winning TD against Chaminade.  Maybe it would not have made a difference..we'll never know.      

Second, in large metro areas, certain fair/good programs may only be losing one or two, high-profile players each year, but if those players are team leaders and their former team had few "great" players to begin with, those losses could be a huge blow.  I believe this is what is happening in places like Broward County.  For example, Dillard lost two high profile players this past season, one to St Thomas(Ingraham) and another to Deerfield Beach(Boyd).  It is hard to quantify the impact that will have on Dillard's team this year from a leadership perspective, but no doubt it is significant.        

 

I also remember someone mentioning Dillard getting 2 transfers in

 

I think it was @Zoe Boy

 

 

[Zoe Boy]

56 minutes ago, OldSchoolLion said:

There are presently 388 varsity hs players in Florida who, according to the 'experts," have the potential to be FBS-level.  45 of them are currently at IMG or St Thomas Aquinas(STA-24, IMG-21).  IMG gets the press for being the national all-star team, but STA actually has more star power on paper!  Of those 388 players, 116 are 4- or 5-star players, and 24 of those 116 are presently at STA or IMG.   

This past season, excluding IMG players, 18% of 4/5-star seniors in Florida had transferred to a school for their senior year.  So, let's assume that 18% of ALL FBS-quality players do the same each year.  And let's assume the IMG and STA players will not be transferring "out."

That leaves us with a pool of 343 players (388-45 at STA and IMG), 92 of which are 4 or 5 stars.   18% of 343 equals 62.  So, based on the assumptions above, in any one year, 62 "FBS quality" players are transferring each year in the state.  And of those 62, 17 are 4 or 5-star players.   

38% of the current 388 FBS-quality players are in Miami-Dade or Broward.  So, it is probably a safe assumption that a large portion of the aforementioned 62 transfers will be taking place in those 2 counties.

Relatively speaking, we are not talking huge numbers here.  We hear about lots of transfers, but should keep in mind that many of these kids are not going to make a great or even good team out of a mediocre one. I could not find a single instance of an individual team getting 10 "D1" transfers.  3 is the norm, and that is for the best teams.   

I do think transfers are making a notable difference in two ways.  First, I think a high-level transfer(s) could be the difference in a matchup between two very good, closely-matched teams.  As an example, Marcus Lafrance, an excellent cornerback at Deerfield Beach, transferred from Ely this past year and intercepted a potential game-winning TD against Chaminade.  Maybe it would not have made a difference..we'll never know.      

Second, in large metro areas, certain fair/good programs may only be losing one or two, high-profile players each year, but if those players are team leaders and their former team had few "great" players to begin with, those losses could be a huge blow.  I believe this is what is happening in places like Broward County.  For example, Dillard lost two high profile players this past season, one to St Thomas(Ingraham) and another to Deerfield Beach(Boyd).  It is hard to quantify the impact that will have on Dillard's team this year from a leadership perspective, but no doubt it is significant.        

 

Are you gonna count the 2 studs that transferred in to Dillard?

[DisabledAccount]

Just now, Zoe Boy said:

Are you gonna count the 2 studs that transferred in to Dillard?

Yeah that is basically what i was implying lol

[OldSchoolLion]

Just now, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

Yeah that is basically what i was implying lol

 

1 minute ago, Zoe Boy said:

Are you gonna count the 2 studs that transferred in to Dillard?

I don't recall who they were.  But even if they were 5 star players, that in no way assures they are going to walk onto a new team, with players who they may not know, and automatically assume a leadership role.  And even if they try to do so, there is no guarantee players are going to accept them as leaders until they prove themselves on the field. 

We are talking intangibles here, ie leadership qualities, peacemaking qualities, etc, not just physical talent.  

[OldSchoolLion]

10 minutes ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

Yeah that is basically what i was implying lol

If Columbia "traded out" its 2 most endeared team leaders today, I bet there would be a very substantial impact to the team, even if the new players were equally talented.     

[Cat_Scratch]

1 hour ago, OldSchoolLion said:

 

I don't recall who they were.  But even if they were 5 star players, that in no way assures they are going to walk onto a new team, with players who they may not know, and automatically assume a leadership role.  And even if they try to do so, there is no guarantee players are going to accept them as leaders until they prove themselves on the field. 

We are talking intangibles here, ie leadership qualities, peacemaking qualities, etc, not just physical talent.  

Basically a trade off, but I imagine that had the 2 not transferred out, with the 2 new transfers in, that Dillard would be a much greater team. Talent is dangerous no matter who the coach is. 4 talented players playing both ways can take a team to state, In my humble opinion.

[Zoe Boy]

1 hour ago, OldSchoolLion said:

If Columbia "traded out" its 2 most endeared team leaders today, I bet there would be a very substantial impact to the team, even if the new players were equally talented.     

So the DT that left to STA from Dillard which is a sophomore or a jr can’t remember your saying he’s a leader but 2 studs that transfer in to Dillard who are Sr’s cant come in n be that? 

[OldSchoolLion]

30 minutes ago, Zoe Boy said:

So the DT that left to STA from Dillard which is a sophomore or a jr can’t remember your saying he’s a leader but 2 studs that transfer in to Dillard who are Sr’s cant come in n be that? 

I didn't say they couldn't be.  I stated "there is no guarantee" they will be accepted as leaders.  And it takes time to earn respect.  Every one of us who has served in leadership roles probably has a story in which it took us time to earn the respect of people and recognition as a true leader, not just a leader "by stripes."  

Likewise, many of us have lost a team member who may not have been the most talented, but was the glue that helped hold the team together.  My point is simply that we must look at things beyond raw physical talent when evaluating gains/losses of team members.

 

[DisabledAccount]

38 minutes ago, Cat_Scratch said:

Basically a trade off, but I imagine that had the 2 not transferred out, with the 2 new transfers in, that Dillard would be a much greater team. Talent is dangerous no matter who the coach is. 4 talented players playing both ways can take a team to state, In my humble opinion.

In most cases yes but Dillard would need more than 4 studs to get past 6a region 4 

[gatorman-uf]

4 flat out Studs playing both ways, gets you a winning season. Not much more than that these days unless we are talking 1A or 2A. 

I agree with the basic premise, but the problem is that isn't the studs that are changing the landscapes. It is the everyday starter transfer. An everyday starter for an above average team transfers to state-caliber team. He sees rotational duty, but plays less, but goes further in playoffs. What he added to the state-caliber team is marginal at best. His loss to his former team is where the greater impact is. A team just lost an everyday starter and do not have the depth to replace him (thus why they are only above average).

Transfers only help the rich get richer.  

[OldSchoolLion]

8 hours ago, gatorman-uf said:

4 flat out Studs playing both ways, gets you a winning season. Not much more than that these days unless we are talking 1A or 2A. 

I agree with the basic premise, but the problem is that isn't the studs that are changing the landscapes. It is the everyday starter transfer. An everyday starter for an above average team transfers to state-caliber team. He sees rotational duty, but plays less, but goes further in playoffs. What he added to the state-caliber team is marginal at best. His loss to his former team is where the greater impact is. A team just lost an everyday starter and do not have the depth to replace him (thus why they are only above average).

Transfers only help the rich get richer.  

St Thomas currently has four, 4-star LB's and one, 3-star LB.  The 3-star is an SEC commit.  2 of the 4-star LB's tranferred in this year...a junior from Miramar and a senior from McArthur.  Both of them already have big-time offers, ie Ohio St, Alabama, etc.  There is a similar situation at the WR position.  A 4-star WR transferred from McArthur and a 3-star WR from Monarch.  STA already had 5-star Marcus Rosemy and another solid WR. 

So, McArthur lost their best offensive and defensive players this season.  They only have one other player on the recruiting radar...a 2-star qb, who with the 4-star WR, could have made a nice passing tandem.  McArthur was 1-9 last season.

At any one time, one has to wonder how many players there are seeing limited playing time at one of the south FL powerhouses who could be the team stud at another school.   

 

 

 

[Zoe Boy]

18 hours ago, OldSchoolLion said:

I didn't say they couldn't be.  I stated "there is no guarantee" they will be accepted as leaders.  And it takes time to earn respect.  Every one of us who has served in leadership roles probably has a story in which it took us time to earn the respect of people and recognition as a true leader, not just a leader "by stripes."  

Likewise, many of us have lost a team member who may not have been the most talented, but was the glue that helped hold the team together.  My point is simply that we must look at things beyond raw physical talent when evaluating gains/losses of team members.

 

Larry Bluestien said this the other day. We’re at a time where every kid knows each other.. A kid leaving to another school like a STA since you like to mention them probably knows the half the team already.. McAurthor done had there share of players transferring in too... Transfers been always happening n it ain’t dying... As far as that glue players holding the team together your telling me that sophomore DT player that left would of been the leader of a Dillard team with other sr’s on the team?

[OldSchoolLion]

1 hour ago, Zoe Boy said:

Larry Bluestien said this the other day. We’re at a time where every kid knows each other.. A kid leaving to another school like a STA since you like to mention them probably knows the half the team already.. McAurthor done had there share of players transferring in too... Transfers been always happening n it ain’t dying... As far as that glue players holding the team together your telling me that sophomore DT player that left would of been the leader of a Dillard team with other sr’s on the team?

Zoe Boy, Going back to my original post, the main message was that I don't think transfers are as big an issue as some may think, at least from a numbers perspective.   As far as the loss of one individual to a team, none of us truly understands the impact unless we have personal knowledge of the situation.

The net may actually be a positive if the kid who transferred was a disruptive force.  Or there may be negative "losses" to a team that are hard to quantify.  Human relationships are complex and different people in our lives bring different qualities to the party, whether its the playing field or the workplace.  

I have given examples not to definitively say this or that.  Have done so simply to suggest situations where there could be a substantial impact.  Working together invariably leads to conflict that must be worked through, even if people know each other beforehand.  That is basic team psychology that has been around for over 50 years.  

I find it intriguing how kids know so many other kids today.  When I was in high school, between athletics, maintaining a 4.0 average(unspoken expectation), chores at home, church life, and working a heavy manual labor job on weekends, I had little time or energy for socializing beyond my little circle. I wonder how kids manage.  

 

[Zoe Boy]

1 hour ago, OldSchoolLion said:

Zoe Boy, Going back to my original post, the main message was that I don't think transfers are as big an issue as some may think, at least from a numbers perspective.   As far as the loss of one individual to a team, none of us truly understands the impact unless we have personal knowledge of the situation.

The net may actually be a positive if the kid who transferred was a disruptive force.  Or there may be negative "losses" to a team that are hard to quantify.  Human relationships are complex and different people in our lives bring different qualities to the party, whether its the playing field or the workplace.  

I have given examples not to definitively say this or that.  Have done so simply to suggest situations where there could be a substantial impact.  Working together invariably leads to conflict that must be worked through, even if people know each other beforehand.  That is basic team psychology that has been around for over 50 years.  

I find it intriguing how kids know so many other kids today.  When I was in high school, between athletics, maintaining a 4.0 average(unspoken expectation), chores at home, church life, and working a heavy manual labor job on weekends, I had little time or energy for socializing beyond my little circle. I wonder how kids manage.  

 

Maybe they weren’t cell phones or the internet or social media’s back in your days.. 

[OldSchoolLion]

1 minute ago, Zoe Boy said:

Maybe they weren’t cell phones or the internet or social media’s back in your days.. 

Sure weren't, but wouldn't have mattered.  ...unless I was texting during class, study, church, practice, or my job, and none of those are good, right LOL  My mama had a big thing about idle time...if there were iphones in my day and mama saw me on it, guaranteed she would immediately find something more useful for me to be doing. LOL

 

 

for me  

[Cat_Scratch]

22 hours ago, OldSchoolLion said:

Sure weren't, but wouldn't have mattered.  ...unless I was texting during class, study, church, practice, or my job, and none of those are good, right LOL  My mama had a big thing about idle time...if there were iphones in my day and mama saw me on it, guaranteed she would immediately find something more useful for me to be doing. LOL

 

for me  

You sure are old school alright. My momma would have done the same thing to me as your Mama done you... cept she would have pinched my ear and twisted it first. 

[OldSchoolLion]

3 minutes ago, Cat_Scratch said:

You sure are old school alright. My momma would have done the same thing to me as your Mama done you... cept she would have pinched my ear and twisted it first. 

We are pretty rough on our young folks today, so I don't go out of my way to say such things.  But some kids today would probably go bonkers and run away if they grew up like some of us.   Parents who grew up dirt poor during the Great Depression had much different parenting techniques than the Boomers!

 

[Cat_Scratch]

1 hour ago, OldSchoolLion said:

We are pretty rough on our young folks today, so I don't go out of my way to say such things.  But some kids today would probably go bonkers and run away if they grew up like some of us.   Parents who grew up dirt poor during the Great Depression had much different parenting techniques than the Boomers!

 

I agree on things are different today than when we ran wild. We could get away with a lot when it came to the law, not so much now days. Who didn't put an M80 in the mailbox back then, if you got caught, which happened a lot, they just made you apologize and replace the mailbox. Now days you go to jail.