How Have District Runners-Up Done in the Playoffs? The Facts

[OldSchoolLion]

Historically speaking, playoff teams that do not finish the regular season as district champion and have 3 or more regular season losses have a very small chance of making a deep playoff run.  Back in 1993, the FHSAA started to allow a lot more teams to make the playoffs.  The data below shows that the vast majority of these "additional" playoff teams have not fared well.  There are some limited exceptions.  It makes one wonder if adding some of these additional playoff teams was really worth it, at least in terms of helping us determine the truly best team in each class.     

Between 2000-2017, about 1150 district runners-up/wilcard teams made the playoffs in the upper classes (5A-8A from 2011-2016 and 3A-6A from 2000-2010).  Of those teams, only 4% made it to a state semifinal or beyond and 1.5% made it to a state final.  Only 1% of those 1150 teams with 3 or more regular season losses made it to a state semifinal or beyond. 

Listed below are the teams that made a state semifinal or beyond during this time frame.  After each team name is their regular season record, the class in which they played that year, and the team that won their district that year.  I've italicized some of the outliers.  

Here are some interesting facts about these teams during this time frame:

• 21 of the 45 teams below finished the regular season with one loss.
• Only 2 teams that did not win a district title and finished the regular season with 3 or more losses made it to a state final: Apopka in 2014 and Carol City in 2016  
• Only 12 teams that did not win a district title and finished the regular season with 3 or more losses made it to a state semifinal
• Only 6 teams have won a state title without winning a district title: Godby, Apopka, Armwood, South Dade, Carol City, and Miami Central
• Apopka won each of its 3 state titles without winning their district those years.  Carol City won 2 state titles in years they did not finish as district champion.
• One team with a losing record made a state semifinal...Deerfield Beach in 2001.  They were in an especially weak region that year.

Classes 5A-8A below

2017 Miami 8-1 (8A-Columbus)

2016 Navarre 9-1 (6A-Gulf Breeze), **Carol City 6-3 (6A-Northwestern), Clay 7-3 (5A-Baker County)

2015 Columbus 9-1 (8A-Coral Gables), Tate 7-2 (6A-Pine Forest), **Miami Central 5-2 (6A-Carol City)

2014 **Apopka 6-4 (8A-West Orange)

2013 **South Dade 9-1 (8A-Killian), Bartram Trail 5-5 (6A-St Augustine)

2012 **Apopka 8-2 (8A-Olympia), **Godby 9-1 (5A-Wakulla), Miami Jackson 6-4 (5A-Norland) 

2011 Fletcher 8-2 (8A-Deland), Bartram Trail 9-1(6A-St Augustine)

 

Classes 3A-6A below

2010 *Norland 9-1 (3A-Belen Jesuit)

2009 *Deland 9-1 (6A-Mainland), Miami Central 9-1 (6A-Northwestern), *Manatee 9-1 (5A-Venice), Lake Wales 8-1 (3A-Winter Haven)

2008 Boone 8-2 (6A-Dr Phillips), Miramar 8-2 (6A-Cypress Bay), *Northwestern 8-1 (6A-Central), Seabreeze 5-5 (4A-Merritt Island)

2007 Cocoa 7-3 (3A-Astronaut)

2006 *Lake Brantley 9-1 (6A-Oviedo), Boone 6-4 (6A-Dr Phillips), Bartow 7-3 (3A-Kathleen)

2005 None

2004 Ely 7-2 (6A-Deerfield Beach), Riverview 7-2 (5A-Sarasota), *Lake Gibson 9-1 (4A-Auburndale), **Armwood 8-1 (4A-Middleton)

2003 Deerfield Beach 9-1 (6A-Ely) **Carol City 9-1 (6A-Northwestern), Dunnellon 8-2 (3A-North Marion)

2002 *Wharton 9-1 (5A-Chamberlain), *Jefferson 9-1 (4A-Armwood)

2001 **Apopka 9-1 (6A-Edgewater), Deerfield Beach 4-6 (6A-Douglas), Dillard 6-4 (6A-Piper), Atlantic 8-2 (5A-Boca Raton), 

2000 Miami Jackson 6-4 (6A-Central), Tate 6-4 (5A-Rutherford), *Dwyer 9-1 (5A-PB Gardens), Armwood 8-2 (3A-Haines City)

*State runner-up

**State champion

[badbird]

3 hours ago, OldSchoolLion said:

 

• One team with a losing record made a state semifinal...Deerfield Beach in 2001.  They were in an especially weak region that year.

 

and they played Apopka

[OldSchoolLion]

23 minutes ago, badbird said:

and they played Apopka

..who thumped the Bucks 41-3.  It was a perfect storm for Deerfield Beach to do that in 2001.  They got moved from a brutal 6AR3 (with Central, Carol City, Dillard and Plantation) to 6AR2 for the 01 season.  The following things opened the door for the Bucks:  

• Vero was in 6AR2 in 2001 but missed the playoffs.
• Atlantic moved from 6AR2 to 5AR4 in 2001.  They finished the regular season 8-2 and made the state semis.  . 
• Defending 6A state champion Palm Bay moved from 6AR2 to 4AR2 in 2001.  They finished the regular season 9-0 and made the state semis.    

Everyone was expecting a Northwestern vs Carol City matchup in the 2001 6A semis, but Dillard upset Carol City in R4.  It was nice back then because you had the Miami powers split up between R3 and R4 in 6A.  6A South was pretty brutal. 

[OldSchoolLion]

The 2008 4AR2 in which 5-5 Seabreeze advanced was an interesting one.  The other 3 regional semifinalists all had 6 wins in the regular season...a weak region.  Seabreeze had 4 losses of 20 or more points during the regular season.

[badbird]

3 hours ago, OldSchoolLion said:

..who thumped the Bucks 41-3.  It was a perfect storm for Deerfield Beach to do that in 2001. 

I had good seats for that game. 

[Wavebb]

1994 Pensacola Washington was a runner-up and beat Southridge 16-7 to be the first non-district champ to win a state title.

 

 

[OldSchoolLion]

45 minutes ago, Wavebb said:

1994 Pensacola Washington was a runner-up and beat Southridge 16-7 to be the first non-district champ to win a state title.

 

 

That was a shocker.  Washington was 8-2 during the regular season. 

[Hwy17]

50 minutes ago, OldSchoolLion said:

That was a shocker.  Washington was 8-2 during the regular season. 

1999 Frostproof was 6-4 and won state

[OldSchoolLion]

Of the 72 state champions in the upper classes between 2000-2017, here are the ones that finished the regular season with 3 or more losses.

2003 *Monsignor Pace(3A) 7-3

2006 *Glades Central(3A) 7-3

2010 *Lincoln(4A) 6-4 

2014 Apopka(8A) 6-4, *American Heritage(5A) 7-3

2016 Carol City(6A) 6-3

*District champion

[OldSchoolLion]

The trends identified in the initial post continued this year.  Only two district runners-up/wildcard teams(listed below) out of 64 in 5A-8A made it to a state semi or beyond.  And only one of those two teams had 3 or more regular season losses.  Northwestern joined Apopka(2014) and Carol City(2018) as the only teams since 2000 to win a state title with 3 or more regular season losses and no district title.

Edgewater 9-1 regular season record (7A-Hagerty was district champion)

Northwestern 5-5 regular season record (6A-Carol City was district champion)

The fact is that debates over which 7-3 team makes the playoffs is usually a moot point.  Very seldom do they advance out of their region.

[Joshua Wilson]

5 hours ago, OldSchoolLion said:

The trends identified in the initial post continued this year.  Only two district runners-up/wildcard teams(listed below) out of 64 in 5A-8A made it to a state semi or beyond.  And only one of those two teams had 3 or more regular season losses.  Northwestern joined Apopka(2014) and Carol City(2018) as the only teams since 2000 to win a state title with 3 or more regular season losses and no district title.

Edgewater 9-1 regular season record (7A-Hagerty was district champion)

Northwestern 5-5 regular season record (6A-Carol City was district champion)

The fact is that debates over which 7-3 team makes the playoffs is usually a moot point.  Very seldom do they advance out of their region.

I was looking to see if you had forgotten about Northwestern from last year, but you added it here.

The biggest note about Miami Northwestern is they are the first-ever 3rd place team from a district to win a state championship. So take what has been done the last two years with the combination of the old wildcard system from 1999-2002, no one else was able to go from 3rd place to holding up the state championship trophy until Northwestern did it. You likely won't see this happen again for a very long time. 

[A-Town561]

On 10/25/2018 at 10:14 PM, OldSchoolLion said:

Of the 72 state champions in the upper classes between 2000-2017, here are the ones that finished the regular season with 3 or more losses.

2003 *Monsignor Pace(3A) 7-3

2006 *Glades Central(3A) 7-3

2010 *Lincoln(4A) 6-4 

2014 Apopka(8A) 6-4, *American Heritage(5A) 7-3

2016 Carol City(6A) 6-3

*District champion

Miami-Booker T Washington as well (2015) 5-5 

They won state that year 

 

[OldSchoolLion]

16 minutes ago, A-Town561 said:

Miami-Booker T Washington as well (2015) 5-5 

They won state that year 

 

Sure...my list only considered upper classes, ie 5A-8A