An Example of Strength of Schedule Not Making a Difference

[OldSchoolLion]

In 2011, Cooper City moved from 5A and 7A and was put in the same district as St Thomas.  How does one prepare for St Thomas?  Better start scheduling lots of big-time opponents, right?  The lineup they faced is below.  In the meantime, St Thomas had already faced 3 nationally ranked teams (Prattville(AL), De La Salle(CA) and Miramar(FL), as well as a tough Cypress Bay team.  The result...one of the most shocking upsets in Florida history, as Cooper City defeated Aquinas at the Raiders home field.    

Non-district game

*Everglades 4-6

*West Broward 1-9

*Monarch 3-7

Nova 3-7

Plantation 5-5

*Western 5-5

South Broward 4-6

There are so many examples like these.  For those who are convinced they need to craft a brutal schedule to win, my only advice is to study history.  There are numerous teams who won state titles and/or beat the "unbeatable" teams with schedules some today would laugh at.  If a team's priority is polls and rankings, that philosophy likely won't get the job done.  Otherwise, there are plenty of variables as important or more so than strength of schedule.  Personally, I think way too much emphasis is placed on SOS and not enough on fundamentals, such as not getting flagged 20 times in a playoff game or having lights out special teams.  Experienced coaches know better.

 

 

[badbird]

45 minutes ago, OldSchoolLion said:

In 2011, Cooper City moved from 5A and 7A and was put in the same district as St Thomas.  How does one prepare for St Thomas?  Better start scheduling lots of big-time opponents, right?  The lineup they faced is below.  In the meantime, St Thomas had already faced 3 nationally ranked teams (Prattville(AL), De La Salle(CA) and Miramar(FL), as well as a tough Cypress Bay team.  The result...one of the most shocking upsets in Florida history, as Cooper City defeated Aquinas at the Raiders home field.    

Non-district game

*Everglades 4-6

*West Broward 1-9

*Monarch 3-7

Nova 3-7

Plantation 5-5

*Western 5-5

South Broward 4-6

There are so many examples like these.  For those who are convinced they need to craft a brutal schedule to win, my only advice is to study history.  There are numerous teams who won state titles and/or beat the "unbeatable" teams with schedules some today would laugh at.  If a team's priority is polls and rankings, that philosophy likely won't get the job done.  Otherwise, there are plenty of variables as important or more so than strength of schedule.  Personally, I think way too much emphasis is placed on SOS and not enough on fundamentals, such as not getting flagged 20 times in a playoff game or having lights out special teams.  Experienced coaches know better.

 

 

I liked to be challenged a few times a year but if you have a great team you can get just as much challenge in practice.  If you are really good you get more out of practices constructed to compete than games.

[FL_HS_football]

They met again in the playoffs and STA put things right winning 27-10, ending Cooper City's season with a 10-1 record. A team like STA goes into every game they play with a huge bulls-eye on its back. Its got to be an incredible challenge from a coaching standpoint, to get your team up emotionally week after week, knowing more times than not your opponent is looking to bring STA down. On the other side of that equation a team going into a contest against STA is either intimidated or motivated at the opportunity at knocking off a national power. Cooper City went into that 1st game with an already established good team, as the team had qualified for the playoffs the year before with most of that team returning for the 2011 season, Don't know if that is really a good example of dismissing scheduling tuff teams during the regular season.

I believe a coach going into a season with a team he expects to be good, cant go wrong by scheduling teams that offer great challenges in order to prepare the team for the playoffs. I watched the Dr Phillips vs Vero Beach playoff game, and thought then that Vero wasn't as tuff as Dr Phillips and to me was ultimately the difference in the game. How a coach goes about finding that mental toughness and maintaining it, isnt always the same from one team to the next................just another part of coaching beyond the x's and o's some take for granted.

[DisabledAccount]

1 hour ago, FL_HS_football said:

They met again in the playoffs and STA put things right winning 27-10, ending Cooper City's season with a 10-1 record. A team like STA goes into every game they play with a huge bulls-eye on its back. Its got to be an incredible challenge from a coaching standpoint, to get your team up emotionally week after week, knowing more times than not your opponent is looking to bring STA down. On the other side of that equation a team going into a contest against STA is either intimidated or motivated at the opportunity at knocking off a national power. Cooper City went into that 1st game with an already established good team, as the team had qualified for the playoffs the year before with most of that team returning for the 2011 season, Don't know if that is really a good example of dismissing scheduling tuff teams during the regular season.

I believe a coach going into a season with a team he expects to be good, cant go wrong by scheduling teams that offer great challenges in order to prepare the team for the playoffs. I watched the Dr Phillips vs Vero Beach playoff game, and thought then that Vero wasn't as tuff as Dr Phillips and to me was ultimately the difference in the game. How a coach goes about finding that mental toughness and maintaining it, isnt always the same from one team to the next................just another part of coaching beyond the x's and o's some take for granted.

That sounds about right 

 

While a team doesn't HAVE to play a murder row schedule to be prepared for the playoffs there are times that playing a tough schedule will help a team but it's on case by case basis 

 

Some programs need that schedule to be prepared for playoffs while others can get prepared playing anyone

 

It depends on the team and how they operate 

[OldSchoolLion]

Take a step back, folks.  Why are we having to put so much energy into making the "right" schedule? Therein lies a big problem with our sport.  Why are we finding it difficult to schedule "tough" games within our district and local area and having to seek out teams from across the state or even country to test us?   

Below is St Thomas' schedule from about 30 years ago.  Week-in and week-out they were playing relatively competitive games against teams in their back yard.  Back in the day, we did not have nearly the problem we do today finding good competition nearby.  There were drastic differences in parity relative to today.  In other words, one did not have to work nearly as hard back then to create a schedule in which most games would be a fair fight.  There was not nearly so much worry about whether my schedule was "tough enough" to prepare me for the playoffs.  For some of us old geezers, it screams "What's wrong with this picture?"  

One did not routinely see 50-point blowouts back then like we do today.  I believe there are two major aspects of the "problem."  First, many of the public school programs have lost momentum over the years and have struggled to get it back.  Second, we have had an enormous number of new schools open over the past 30 years, and the majority of them have struggled to get traction with their programs.  Schools like Bartram Trail are the exception, not the rule.

We have a laser focus on the transfer issue (and rightfully so), but the MUCH bigger issue is why so many of our programs in Florida are not competitive.   

On another note...I occasionally hear someone imply that the level of "recruiting" and transfers was the same back in the day, but we simply did not hear about it.  Anyone looking at the scores from 25+ years ago can see that clearly was not the case. 

Stranahan 9 STA 0

STA 14 McArthur 12

STA 24 Western 15

STA 14 South Broward 6

Deerfield Beach 31 STA 28

STA 21 Nova 7

Ely 20 STA 19

STA 17 Fort Lauderdale 7

Dillard 22 STA 7

STA 43 Cardinal Gibbons 7    

[Hwy17]

3 hours ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

That sounds about right 

 

While a team doesn't HAVE to play a murder row schedule to be prepared for the playoffs there are times that playing a tough schedule will help a team but it's on case by case basis 

 

Some programs need that schedule to be prepared for playoffs while others can get prepared playing anyone

 

It depends on the team and how they operate 

I agree that there is such a thing as playing too weak of a schedule.   However I think playing a team more along your lines in terms of talent, size and speed does more good to help you get better than scheduling a team that you obviously have no business playing.

[DisabledAccount]

9 minutes ago, OldSchoolLion said:

.   

On another note...I occasionally hear someone imply that the level of "recruiting" and transfers was the same back in the day, but we simply did not hear about it.  Anyone looking at the scores from 25+ years ago can see that clearly was not the case. 

 

It may be more common now and may even be a bigger issue now than in the past but it did happen and not just at privates 

 

Extreme player movement has happened in metros long before the new "School choice" law was put into effect last year 

[Hwy17]

10 minutes ago, OldSchoolLion said:

Take a step back, folks.  Why are we having to put so much energy into making the "right" schedule? Therein lies a big problem with our sport.  Why are we finding it difficult to schedule "tough" games within our district and local area and having to seek out teams from across the state or even country to test us?   

Below is St Thomas' schedule from about 30 years ago.  Week-in and week-out they were playing relatively competitive games against teams in their back yard.  Back in the day, we did not have nearly the problem we do today finding good competition nearby.  There were drastic differences in parity relative to today.  In other words, one did not have to work nearly as hard back then to create a schedule in which most games would be a fair fight.  There was not nearly so much worry about whether my schedule was "tough enough" to prepare me for the playoffs.  For some of us old geezers, it screams "What's wrong with this picture?"  

One did not routinely see 50-point blowouts back then like we do today.  I believe there are two major aspects of the "problem."  First, many of the public school programs have lost momentum over the years and have struggled to get it back.  Second, we have had an enormous number of new schools open over the past 30 years, and the majority of them have struggled to get traction with their programs.  Schools like Bartram Trail are the exception, not the rule.

We have a laser focus on the transfer issue (and rightfully so), but the MUCH bigger issue is why so many of our programs in Florida are not competitive.   

On another note...I occasionally hear someone imply that the level of "recruiting" and transfers was the same back in the day, but we simply did not hear about it.  Anyone looking at the scores from 25+ years ago can see that clearly was not the case. 

Stranahan 9 STA 0

STA 14 McArthur 12

STA 24 Western 15

STA 14 South Broward 6

Deerfield Beach 31 STA 28

STA 21 Nova 7

Ely 20 STA 19

STA 17 Fort Lauderdale 7

Dillard 22 STA 7

STA 43 Cardinal Gibbons 7    

Probably a reflection of public education as a whole.  Coaching jobs just don't pay that much, turnover is high, transfers go to where ever, it all adds up.  

[DisabledAccount]

4 minutes ago, Hwy17 said:

I agree that there is such a thing as playing too weak of a schedule.   However I think playing a team more along your lines in terms of talent, size and speed does more good to help you get better than scheduling a team that you obviously have no business playing.

The question then becomes at what point is a team going beyond their capabilities of scheduling a team 

 

When i look at Columbia schedule (I'll use them because of my firsthand experience seeing them)  I see teams on there that overall while not exactly being "easy" games they are ones that Columbia wins easily but teams most would be challenged by (like Gainesville or Buchholz for example)

 

Then i see games against teams that would be considered better than us but aren't ones we can't compete with (Like Trinity Christian)

 

I think the schedule provides a solid balance but a lot of teams would struggle with that schedule, naturally the stronger a team is the better schedule they can play and handle

[OldSchoolLion]

12 minutes ago, Hwy17 said:

I agree that there is such a thing as playing too weak of a schedule.   However I think playing a team more along your lines in terms of talent, size and speed does more good to help you get better than scheduling a team that you obviously have no business playing.

To your point, I prefer a competitive, if not spectacular, game each week rather than some of the up and down schedules we see today where one week a team is playing a national powerhouse and the next they are putting a running clock on someone.  Easier said than done today, I understand.

It's easier to keep the kids "up" throughout the season when they know each week they will have a competitive game. 

[Hwy17]

5 minutes ago, OldSchoolLion said:

To your point, I prefer a competitive, if not spectacular, game each week rather than some of the up and down schedules we see today where one week a team is playing a national powerhouse and the next they are putting a running clock on someone.  Easier said than done today, I understand.

It's easier to keep the kids "up" throughout the season when they know each week they will have a competitive game. 

I've had this discussion many times over the last several years.  I see these teams, particularly those in my neck of the woods, that go 1-9 or 0-10 because they play teams that easily put a running clock on them, and they develop a culture of losing.  Its like I said in another post about passing basic math before taking algebra.  Now some are starting to catch on.  While critics will complain that they "don't play anybody", I have to ask, is it better to go 7-3 or 8-2 against a schedule you can compete with or 1-9/0-10 against one you can't? I choose the former, especially if you are trying to build a program and install a winning culture.  

[OldSchoolLion]

Look at the record of Hollywood McArthur.  ...an off year sometimes, sure.  But this level of bouncing up and down points to something unhealthy within the program.  A sustainable program does not have this level of peaks and valleys.  In the past, programs didn't soar to new heights or plummet in one season, at least not with the  frequency as today.  I'm afraid the coaching and player carousel in some parts of the state is likely contributing.  

McArthur 

2018 9-2

2017 1-9

2016 11-1

2015 7-3

2014 0-10

2013 5-5

2012 5-5

 

 

[FL_HS_football]

2 hours ago, OldSchoolLion said:

Take a step back, folks.  Why are we having to put so much energy into making the "right" schedule? Therein lies a big problem with our sport.  Why are we finding it difficult to schedule "tough" games within our district and local area and having to seek out teams from across the state or even country to test us?   

Below is St Thomas' schedule from about 30 years ago.  Week-in and week-out they were playing relatively competitive games against teams in their back yard.  Back in the day, we did not have nearly the problem we do today finding good competition nearby.  There were drastic differences in parity relative to today.  In other words, one did not have to work nearly as hard back then to create a schedule in which most games would be a fair fight.  There was not nearly so much worry about whether my schedule was "tough enough" to prepare me for the playoffs.  For some of us old geezers, it screams "What's wrong with this picture?"  

One did not routinely see 50-point blowouts back then like we do today.  I believe there are two major aspects of the "problem."  First, many of the public school programs have lost momentum over the years and have struggled to get it back.  Second, we have had an enormous number of new schools open over the past 30 years, and the majority of them have struggled to get traction with their programs.  Schools like Bartram Trail are the exception, not the rule.

We have a laser focus on the transfer issue (and rightfully so), but the MUCH bigger issue is why so many of our programs in Florida are not competitive.   

On another note...I occasionally hear someone imply that the level of "recruiting" and transfers was the same back in the day, but we simply did not hear about it.  Anyone looking at the scores from 25+ years ago can see that clearly was not the case. 

Stranahan 9 STA 0

STA 14 McArthur 12

STA 24 Western 15

STA 14 South Broward 6

Deerfield Beach 31 STA 28

STA 21 Nova 7

Ely 20 STA 19

STA 17 Fort Lauderdale 7

Dillard 22 STA 7

STA 43 Cardinal Gibbons 7    

That's not completely true,  1981 Joe Kinnan came back to Bradenton and took over the HBC responsibilities at Manatee High School. That same year Manatee won the District Championship and by 1983 they won there 1st state title......by 1985 Pinellas County High schools began complaining about playing in the same district as Manatee. Manatee that previous year had beaten Pinellas County teams scoring 60 to 80 points in some instances..........that was 37 years ago. At one point because Riverview, Sarasota, and Manatee were collectively beating these schools so badly as well, the FHSAA split these teams up and placed them all in different districts ...(despite them being within 10-15 miles of each other). Were they all recruiting? Hard to believe they were as Manatee had cross town rival Southeast HS, playing these school straight up despite being in a lower classification. So what changed? I believe coaching and the change in the over-all approach to preparing players to play football on those teams was the biggest difference.

Additionally,I know Joe Kinnan was very vocal more than once about the over-all benefits a school like STA had at bringing in talent, compared to public schools........that to me has to carry some weight. Can a public school compete with a school like STA, on a given year with the right combination of talent and maturity......yes it can! However over time that just isnt going to be the case, because a public school is destined to go through up's and down's of cycles with talent. STA however just simply reloads without having to deal with that because securing talent hasn't the same restrictions facing them a public school must endure.

[OldSchoolLion]

2 minutes ago, FL_HS_football said:

That's not completely true,  1981 Joe Kinnan came back to Bradenton and took over the HBC responsibilities at Manatee High School. That same year Manatee won the District Championship and by 1983 they won there 1st state title......by 1985 Pinellas County High schools began complaining about playing in the same district as Manatee. Manatee that previous year had beaten Pinellas County teams scoring 60 to 80 points in some instances..........that was 37 years ago. At one point because Riverview, Sarasota, and Manatee were collectively beating these schools so badly as well, the FHSAA split these teams up and placed them all in different districts ...(despite them being within 10-15 miles of each other). Were they all recruiting? Hard to believe they were as Manatee had cross town rival Southeast HS, playing these school straight up despite being in a lower classification. So what changed? I believe coaching and the change in the over-all approach to preparing players to play football on those teams was the biggest difference.

Additionally,I know Joe Kinnan was very vocal more than once about the over-all benefits a school like STA had at bringing in talent, compared to a public schools........that to me has to carry some weight. Can a public school compete with a school like STA, on a given year with the right combination of talent and maturity......yes it can! However over time that just isnt going to be the case, because a public school is destined to go through up's and down's of cycles with talent. STA however just simply reloads without having to deal with that because securing talent hasn't the same restrictions facing them a public school must endure.

My comments came from a big picture perspective.  Sure there were pockets of the state with big disparities in talent years ago.    Although I don't have the data to back it up, I have looked at a lot of scores over the years and what I am seeing today is that such pockets exist at much greater frequency.  Just as we had plenty of blowouts in the playoffs years back, but nowhere near the level of today.

Sure private schools have a potential advantage.  Amongst private schools, though, STA and Bolles are anomalies over the past 25 years.  Most private schools, historically speaking, have not reloaded every year and/or have not been able to sustain high levels of performance year after year-examples below  As stated in another post, we live in a peculiar state that has had a couple of monster private school programs that have dominated.  In a manner of speaking, in football we have had a "Bolles/STA problem", not a private school problem.  And as far as the other private schools that have risen over the past few years, I am not completely convinced they will not crash like University and Oxbridge in the future.  Time will tell. 

• Jesuit did not win a playoff game from 2005-2009
• Tampa Catholic did not win a playoff game from 1999-2005.
• Since 2010, Trinity Catholic has not been able to repeat the success of the late 2000's.  
• Cardinal Gibbons appeared in a state title game in 1990.  They appeared in only 6 playoff games over the next 25 years.
• After great success in the early 2000's, Chaminade only advanced once in the playoffs between 2007-2015.