Just How Weak Is 7A as a Whole? The Numbers

[OldSchoolLion]

There are 87 teams in Class 7A.  Of those 87...

• 20 teams (23%) have never won a playoff game.
• 49 teams (52%) have won 3 or fewer playoff games.  
• 21 teams (24%) have won 10 or more playoff games.  Of those 21 teams, 7 have had losing seasons and/or few, if any, playoff wins over the past 10 years.  The remaining 14 teams are listed below by region.  Outside these 14 teams, there are only a few legitimate competitors, ie Braden River, Viera and Tampa Bay Tech. 

The top 15-20 teams in 7A are quite good.  What makes 7A unique is the precipitous dropoff in performance that occurs once we go beyond those teams.  I don't think I am exaggerating saying that the majority of the 70 or so remaining teams would get a running clock put on them by most of the teams below.  These aren't just teams that had a bad season or two.  Many of these teams have had years of poor performance. As mentioned in another thread, a disproportionate number of "newer" high schools can be found in this class...programs that have struggled to put together a winning season since opening.   

The proof is in the pudding.  9 first round playoff games in 7A this year were decided by 35+ points.  No other class had more than 3 such games.  Let's face it, if we offered up many of those 70 teams as an example of big school FL football to the rest of the country, we wouldn't be beating our chests.  

Region 1-Bartram Trail, Columbia, Edgewater, First Coast, Fletcher, Lee, Lincoln

Region 2-Lakeland, Plant

Region 3-East Lake, Palmetto, Venice

Region 4-Dwyer, St Thomas Aquinas

 

[gatorman-uf]

10 hours ago, OldSchoolLion said:

9 first round playoff games in 7A this year were decided by 35+ points.  No other class had more than 3 such games. 

I find this funny as many individuals claimed that the new playoffs system wold create more competitive games as a whole, but the fact that the new system isn't doing that is very telling. It is almost as if the FHSAA sold us a bill of goods. 

[OldSchoolLion]

5 minutes ago, gatorman-uf said:

I find this funny as many individuals claimed that the new playoffs system wold create more competitive games as a whole, but the fact that the new system isn't doing that is very telling. It is almost as if the FHSAA sold us a bill of goods. 

We might get a year when the stars align and results are favorable, but bottom line, when you have this many classes and this many teams in the playoffs, with an increasing concentration of power in certain metro areas, we will have blowouts regardless of what system we use.  We are kidding ourselves thinking otherwise.

[DisabledAccount]

3 minutes ago, OldSchoolLion said:

We might get a year when the stars align and results are favorable, but bottom line, when you have this many classes and this many teams in the playoffs, with an increasing concentration of power in certain metro areas, we will have blowouts regardless of what system we use.  We are kidding ourselves thinking otherwise.

I agree

 

While i think the point system can work it is clear that no system will work with 8 classes,  they need to drop classes or anything they try is going to be a failure 

 

 

Btw i would like to see how 6a and 7a stack up

[OldSchoolLion]

a comparison of 8A, 7A and 6A below.  These stats are pretty compelling.

# of teams that have never won a playoff game

8A-16 teams(18%)                                                                          

7A-20 teams (23%)

6A-11 teams (14%)

5A-11 teams (13%) 

 

# of teams that have won 3 or fewer playoff games

8A-41 teams (46%) 

7A-45 teams (52%) 

6A-28 teams (35%) 

5A-34 teams (40%) 

 

# of teams that have won 10 or more playoff games

8A-29 teams (33%) 

7A-21 teams (24%) 

6A-39 teams (48%)

5A-30 teams (35%)

 

[OldSchoolLion]

Think things are bad now, folks?  Look at those stats in the previous post and imagine what bad shape some classes could be in 25 years from now when there are 100 more high schools that have opened up in FL and 10 classifications instead of 8...and if talent continues to concentrate in certain locales/schools.  I predict 50 point margins of victory will become the norm rather than the exception.  The writing is on the wall.

 

[Phfootball9]

4 hours ago, OldSchoolLion said:

We might get a year when the stars align and results are favorable, but bottom line, when you have this many classes and this many teams in the playoffs, with an increasing concentration of power in certain metro areas, we will have blowouts regardless of what system we use.  We are kidding ourselves thinking otherwise.

So is the correct model the 1a model the correct model. I think there should be a distinction between schools with and without open enrollment. I also think the handling of home schooled and charter school numbers need to be addressed. It really is not the number of classes it is how they are assembled, imo.

[OldSchoolLion]

I just added 8A results to the post above.  7A definitely takes the cake!

[DisabledAccount]

@OldSchoolLion

 

Could these results be more the byproduct of 7a for the most part having a lot of newer schools who haven't had a time to build up pedigree more so than say 6a (who in 6a region 1 alone have St Augustine who have been around 100 years and several panhandle schools that have been around a long time as well as schools like Plant, Fort Myers, Miami Northwestern, ect. 

 

 

Case like that could be made with 8a as well who has several long term powerhouses who have had success 

 

 

I'm not saying what you are presenting is exactly false,  only that could the results of historical playoff records of the 3 be attributed to 7a being more younger schools,  I don't have the hard numbers in front of me but i remember that thread you posted about the newest 50 or so schools and where they are and i saw several from 7a on that list

 

 

Most of the 7a criticism seems to stem from the state finals games and how the North team that last few years have been destroyed by STA and lately only Dwyer and Venice (both in the south region) have been able to beat them in 7a, hopefully lakeland breaks that trend this Friday and restores some balance to 7a 

 

Again not crapping on the work,  only curious if you felt that could be part of the reason for these numbers? 

[OldSchoolLion]

This thread was meant to support the thread below.  The numbers directly below represent the numbers/percentages of "newer" schools (schools that have opened since 1992) in each of the three largest classes.  Without a doubt in my mind, the number of such schools in 7A is adding to the lack of competitiveness in that class, since many of the teams that are lagging are amongst these newer schools.   

This is why we need to consider some sort of relegation system to allow newer schools to get their feet on the ground.  If we don't, I'm afraid this situation will get worse as new schools open in the future.  I think that is a lot more important issue today than splitting hairs over the bubble teams that make the playoffs.  

8A-26/89 teams (29%)

7A-35/87 teams (40%)

6A-18/81 teams (22%)

5A-14/85 teams (16%)

 

 

[OldSchoolLion]

I have added the numbers for 5A below so one can compare all of the upper classes.  Amongst the upper classes, 6A is arguably the most competitive class and 7A the least competitive.

# of teams that have never won a playoff game

8A-16 teams(18%)                                                                          

7A-20 teams (23%)

6A-11 teams (14%)

5A-11 teams (13%) 

 

# of teams that have won 3 or fewer playoff games

8A-41 teams (46%) 

7A-45 teams (52%) 

6A-28 teams (35%) 

5A-34 teams (40%) 

 

# of teams that have won 10 or more playoff games

8A-29 teams (33%) 

7A-21 teams (24%) 

6A-39 teams (48%)

5A-30 teams (35%)

[OldSchoolLion]

Here is the breakdown by region of teams with 3 or fewer playoff wins (historically weak teams).  The number next to each region represents the number of such teams in that region.  I've bolded the more profound numbers.

 

Note how Region 2 in three of the four upper classes has a disproportionate amount of weaker teams.  Another interesting observation is the number of weaker teams in the south FL regions (region 4) in 7A and 8A. 

 

5AR1-6   5AR2-15  5AR3-8   5AR4-5

6AR1-3   6AR2-8    6AR3-8    6AR4-9

7AR1-10 7AR2-12  7AR3-9    7AR4-14

8AR1-5   8AR2-13  8AR3-12  8AR4-11