Transfers Are Really a Dade/Broward County Problem

[OldSchoolLion]

Below are the number of 2018 Top 200 FL seniors and Top 95 juniors, broken down by county, who transferred to a school within that county over the past 2 seasons.  Outside the Top 200 seniors, the number of kids getting FBS scholarships drops off substantially.  These numbers do not include IMG players or players who transferred from outside the state/region. In parentheses after each county is any school within that county that got 2 or more of these players.  

So, some schools may be getting quite a few transfers in one year, but there are probably less than 10 schools in the state, out of hundreds, that are getting a substantial number of FBS-quality transfers in one year (this assumes that the numbers of junior, FBS-quality players transferring are similar in number and proportion to those of the senior transfers).  St Thomas Aquinas and Chaminade-Madonna are 2 of the more extreme examples.  Each had 5 solid, FBS-quality players transfer in this season.  And that is quite rare.  People who claim that certain schools are getting 10 solid D1 (by "solid D1 talent," I'm not including kids with one offer to USF) players each year are misinformed.  And if I am wrong, I'll gradly eat crow (extra crispy, please) if you can show me the facts to substantiate your claim.    

This season, Armwood played 17 kids who transferred in over the past 2 seasons.  Only one of them was a 3-star player.  In a best-case scenario, Chaminade-Madonna played 21 such kids, and 12 of them were marginal players.   I believe some teams like Armwood and Chaminade are simply trying to get enough warm bodies to keep from having an off-season.  And they are selling their souls to do so, because they are screwing over some of the home-grown kids to make room for the transfers.

 

Miami-Dade-22 (Carol City-5, Columbus-4, Southridge-4, Northwestern-3)   14 seniors and 8 juniors

Broward-20 (St Thomas-8, Chaminade-Madonna-6, Deerfield Beach-3, Piper-2) 14 seniors and 6 juniors

Hillsborough-9 (Hillsborough High-2, Armwood-3, Jefferson-2)   6 seniors and 3 juniors

Palm Beach-5 (PB Central-2)     3 seniors and 2 juniors

Orange-4 (Jones-2)

Duval-3 (Sandalwood-2)   3 juniors

Brevard-3 (Cocoa-2)     2 seniors and 1 junior

Leon-2 (Rickards-2)

Pinellas-2        1 senior and 1 junior

Polk-2

Duval-1

Escambia-1

Indian River-1

Lee-1

Manatee-1

Marion-1

St Johns-1

Sarasota-1

 

 

[OldSchoolLion]

This thread provides additional information related to this topic. The fact that Broward County is also a coaching merry-go-round likely contributes to kids transferring. 

 

[Hwy17]

Its a problem across the state.  Metro Areas, especially Dade and Broward have it to the extreme.

[OldSchoolLion]

19 minutes ago, Hwy17 said:

Its a problem across the state.  Metro Areas, especially Dade and Broward have it to the extreme.

To some extent, sure.  I'm not sure exactly how big  and systemic a problem it is, though.  I'd love to have some data of starter-quality football players who transfer each year.  The percentage of those kids who transfer relative to the total number of kids who play may be quite small.  Have to wonder if the 80-20 rule applies here, with 80% of transfers going to 20% of the schools.        

[OldSchoolLion]

I just updated the numbers in the original post and included transfer information for the Top 95 juniors.  The trends persist, with Broward and Dade accounting for over half of the transfers over the past couple of years involving FBS-quality talent.  

7 schools in Dade and Broward accounted for 42% of all these transfers in the state (St Thomas Aquinas, Chaminade-Madonna, Carol City, Columbus, Southridge, Deerfield Beach, and Northwestern).

Interestingly, some folks questioned Lakeland after their title run this year.  Although Lakeland did get a number of transfers, only one of them (Lloyd Summerall) was an undisputed FBS talent.  Miami Central is another powerhouse that had only one such transfer.     

[Perspective]

16 hours ago, OldSchoolLion said:

 

Interestingly, some folks questioned Lakeland after their title run this year.  Although Lakeland did get a number of transfers, only one of them (Lloyd Summerall) was an undisputed FBS talent.  Miami Central is another powerhouse that had only one such transfer.     

I'd take a team of 'really good high school football players' over a team with one or two "undisputed FBS talents" every day of the week and twice on Friday nights.   Now, if you can put an FBS talent on a team with really good players, you've got a chance to have a very special year.  In my view, that's what Lakeland did this year.  The other thread shows how many players transferred into Lakeland over the last two years.  The list included the QB.  While he may not be an FBS talent (at least not at the QB position), he was perfect for their system.  And without trying to throw punches at a high school kid, and based purely on the eyeball test, the number 2 QB at Lakeland (who may only be a sophomore) would not have been able to do the things that the number 1 kid did or that Lakeland needed to be done in order for them to make their championship run.  That said, Lakeland probably could have lined Bowman up in the wildcat all season and still gone undefeated -- at least through the regular season. 

My point is this:  you don't necessarily need undisputed FBS talent to make a deep playoff run if you have good players and depth across the board.  But, certainly, if you can take a team that has good players, including a 4* TE and a potential 5* RB, and add in transfers that are better than what you've got (and/or allow players to play a position that is better suited for them), and throw in another undisputed FBS talent or two, that's when you've got a real shot at holding up the trophy in Orlando. 

[OldSchoolLion]

39 minutes ago, Perspective said:

I'd take a team of 'really good high school football players' over a team with one or two "undisputed FBS talents" every day of the week and twice on Friday nights.   Now, if you can put an FBS talent on a team with really good players, you've got a chance to have a very special year.  In my view, that's what Lakeland did this year.  The other thread shows how many players transferred into Lakeland over the last two years.  The list included the QB.  While he may not be an FBS talent (at least not at the QB position), he was perfect for their system.  And without trying to throw punches at a high school kid, and based purely on the eyeball test, the number 2 QB at Lakeland (who may only be a sophomore) would not have been able to do the things that the number 1 kid did or that Lakeland needed to be done in order for them to make their championship run.  That said, Lakeland probably could have lined Bowman up in the wildcat all season and still gone undefeated -- at least through the regular season. 

My point is this:  you don't necessarily need undisputed FBS talent to make a deep playoff run if you have good players and depth across the board.  But, certainly, if you can take a team that has good players, including a 4* TE and a potential 5* RB, and add in transfers that are better than what you've got (and/or allow players to play a position that is better suited for them), and throw in another undisputed FBS talent or two, that's when you've got a real shot at holding up the trophy in Orlando. 

Good points.  The devil is in the details.  Some folks out there simply point to sheer numbers of transfers as an indicator of potential.  That may or may not be the case, depending upon who a team gets. 

As you imply, a certain team with relatively few transfers could hit the jackpot if they get the "right" transfers.  Mandarin may be an example of this with Beck and his wr corps.  IMO, what's more important than how many transfers a team gets is "who" they get and how that player(s) complements the team's system and existing players.  ST Thomas Aquinas getting a 5-star db may not mean that much to them if their secondary is already loaded with 4-star db's...whereas a really good team whose achilles heal is their qb could benefit tremendously from getting "just" a 3-star player.

Every case is unique and it's difficult to say exactly how much transfers made a difference in a team's overall performance without delving into the details.  We had some teams vying for titles this year with vastly different circumstances.  We had St Thomas Aquinas, who got a bunch of transfers, but would still blow most teams away talent-wise even without those transfers.  We had some teams who needed lots of transfers to fill voids, even if some of those players were just "warm bodies," ie Armwood and Chaminade-Madonna.  We had some teams who seemed to get an average number of transfers with average talent, but got one or two key transfers to round out their team, ie Lakeland.  Then we have teams who didn't seem to rely much at all upon transfers, ie Cardinal Gibbons and North Marion.  

 

[Jags904]

7 hours ago, Perspective said:

I'd take a team of 'really good high school football players' over a team with one or two "undisputed FBS talents" every day of the week and twice on Friday nights.   Now, if you can put an FBS talent on a team with really good players, you've got a chance to have a very special year.  In my view, that's what Lakeland did this year.  The other thread shows how many players transferred into Lakeland over the last two years.  The list included the QB.  While he may not be an FBS talent (at least not at the QB position), he was perfect for their system.  And without trying to throw punches at a high school kid, and based purely on the eyeball test, the number 2 QB at Lakeland (who may only be a sophomore) would not have been able to do the things that the number 1 kid did or that Lakeland needed to be done in order for them to make their championship run.  That said, Lakeland probably could have lined Bowman up in the wildcat all season and still gone undefeated -- at least through the regular season. 

My point is this:  you don't necessarily need undisputed FBS talent to make a deep playoff run if you have good players and depth across the board.  But, certainly, if you can take a team that has good players, including a 4* TE and a potential 5* RB, and add in transfers that are better than what you've got (and/or allow players to play a position that is better suited for them), and throw in another undisputed FBS talent or two, that's when you've got a real shot at holding up the trophy in Orlando. 

Bingo. If you get 12 good quality HS football players to transfer in a year, then you should be making a deep run. 

Imagine if just your average HS football team got 2 good HS OL. Not D1 guys either, just two reliable players. Nothing else could change and I guarantee that team goes from a 5-5 team to a 7-3 or 8-2 team. Now imagine adding the same thing with a QB & RB, two more WR’s, two more DL, two more LB’s  & 2 DB’s. That’s a team that may win a state title. 

[OldSchoolLion]

1 hour ago, Jags904 said:

Bingo. If you get 12 good quality HS football players to transfer in a year, then you should be making a deep run. 

Imagine if just your average HS football team got 2 good HS OL. Not D1 guys either, just two reliable players. Nothing else could change and I guarantee that team goes from a 5-5 team to a 7-3 or 8-2 team. Now imagine adding the same thing with a QB & RB, two more WR’s, two more DL, two more LB’s  & 2 DB’s. That’s a team that may win a state title. 

Are you assuming all 12 would see regular playing time?  If so, does that mean some seniors who were at the school for 4 years could lose a starting role to one of the transfers?

 

[Jags904]

5 hours ago, OldSchoolLion said:

Are you assuming all 12 would see regular playing time?  If so, does that mean some seniors who were at the school for 4 years could lose a starting role to one of the transfers?

 

Absolutely. Say an average player is replaced by a good player and that were to happen at 12 positions. This is happening all over the state, not necessarily 12 transfer starters but let’s say 8. Imagine upgrading 8 positions on a team. You are a far different team. 

[OldSchoolLion]

8 hours ago, Jags904 said:

Absolutely. Say an average player is replaced by a good player and that were to happen at 12 positions. This is happening all over the state, not necessarily 12 transfer starters but let’s say 8. Imagine upgrading 8 positions on a team. You are a far different team. 

...a parallel I see with this scenario in hs football today.  When US corporations started sending jobs overseas and/or cutting older workers in favor of younger ones, the companies realized some short-term gains and some executives were heroes.  But now these same companies are experiencing challenges retaining talent because there is no employee loyalty anymore.  In short, they sold out.

If my son transferred into a school as a junior and the coach started him over a senior at that same school who had put in his dues for 4 years, I would warn my son that this coach would probably have no problem replacing him as a starter in his senior year if someone a little better came along. 

If fielding the best team at all costs has become the primary job of the hs coach today, I wonder which coaches today have the primary responsibility of instilling values in kids.  That was always the realm of the hs coach.  At what point does a kid learn about loyalty if not in high school?    Maybe today's transfer problem is really not a problem about legislature and rules...maybe the real problem is coaches who don't understand their real job.

 

 

  

[Proseteye]

On 12/27/2018 at 10:44 AM, OldSchoolLion said:

Good points.  The devil is in the details.  Some folks out there simply point to sheer numbers of transfers as an indicator of potential.  That may or may not be the case, depending upon who a team gets. 

As you imply, a certain team with relatively few transfers could hit the jackpot if they get the "right" transfers.  Mandarin may be an example of this with Beck and his wr corps.  IMO, what's more important than how many transfers a team gets is "who" they get and how that player(s) complements the team's system and existing players.  ST Thomas Aquinas getting a 5-star db may not mean that much to them if their secondary is already loaded with 4-star db's...whereas a really good team whose achilles heal is their qb could benefit tremendously from getting "just" a 3-star player.

Every case is unique and it's difficult to say exactly how much transfers made a difference in a team's overall performance without delving into the details.  We had some teams vying for titles this year with vastly different circumstances.  We had St Thomas Aquinas, who got a bunch of transfers, but would still blow most teams away talent-wise even without those transfers.  We had some teams who needed lots of transfers to fill voids, even if some of those players were just "warm bodies," ie Armwood and Chaminade-Madonna.  We had some teams who seemed to get an average number of transfers with average talent, but got one or two key transfers to round out their team, ie Lakeland.  Then we have teams who didn't seem to rely much at all upon transfers, ie Cardinal Gibbons and North Marion.  

 

North Marion had one transfer that made all of the difference. QB Corey Wilsher. The Colts were 3-7 in 2017 without Wilsher. Wilsher transferred from Belleview to North Marion in the summer of 2018. Belleview, which was a pretty good team in 2017, dropped off the Cliff in 2018 without Wilsher going 0-9. Wilsher is not even a D-1 player, although I don't know why. He's headed to the University of West Florida. So, one player made all of the difference for a 5A team that went to the championship in 2018. I keep maintaining that one key player can change any team from an also ran to a champion in high school football. If one player can do this imagine what 5 or 6 key players can do. 

[OldSchoolLion]

1 hour ago, Proseteye said:

North Marion had one transfer that made all of the difference. QB Corey Wilsher. The Colts were 3-7 in 2017 without Wilsher. Wilsher transferred from Belleview to North Marion in the summer of 2018. Belleview, which was a pretty good team in 2017, dropped off the Cliff in 2018 without Wilsher going 0-9. Wilsher is not even a D-1 player, although I don't know why. He's headed to the University of West Florida. So, one player made all of the difference for a 5A team that went to the championship in 2018. I keep maintaining that one key player can change any team from an also ran to a champion in high school football. If one player can do this imagine what 5 or 6 key players can do. 

Can agree Wilsher made a big impact and can agree that N Marion may not have made the title game without him.  But based on what I saw, N Marion would not have been an "also ran" this year without him.  In the games NM won during the regular season, nobody got close.  They had a 1600 yard rusher and  a number of wr's who could catch the ball.  And they had a reasonably good defense.  Something tells me that would have been a pretty good team even with him. It appears he helped a good team be a very good team.  That's reasonable to say.  One player doesn't turn a loser into a state contender, though.

Proseteye, in today's world, I think it has become too easy for folks to point to one transfer and say "see, that's why they one."  Would imagine that just about every team in a state final this year had at least one transfer athlete.    

Just as for years people cried "recruiting" when private schools won a title, the rallying cry today has become "transfer."  It can take away from the hard work of the team as a whole when we make such statements.  That's my real issue here.  No doubt some schools take advantage of transfers more than others.  But I would like to think there are still quite a few schools who know how to win, even without relying upon transfers.  I would prefer to focus on the kids at N Marion who stuck around 3-4 years and helped them make that title game rather than focusing on the one kid who "made all the difference."  No way that qb did what he did without some pretty darn good o-linemen who we will likely never hear of.