East Central Florida Top 19 (UPDATED)

[Pipe Dreams]

Rank, team, class-region, hypothetical spread

1. Edgewater — (7A-R1) 
2. Cocoa — (4A-R2) +3
3. Jones — (5A-R2) +3
4. Seminole — (8A R1) +6
5. Winter Park — (8A-R1) +8
6. Rockledge — (5A-R3) +16
7. Osceola — (8A-R2) +16
8. Bishop Moore — (5A-R2) +16
9. Dr. Phillips — (8A-R2) +17
10. Mainland — (6A-R1) +17
11. Lake Mary — (8A-R1) +17
12. West Orange — (8A-R1) +20
13. Apopka — (8A-R1) +20
14. Viera — (7A-R2) +21
15. Wekiva — (7A-R1) +21
16. Oviedo — (8A-R1) +24
17. Spruce Creek — (8A-R1) +27
18. Ocoee — (8A-R1) +27
19. Olympia — (8A-R2) +28

 

Ranking includes Orange (9 teams), Seminole (3), Brevard (3), Volusia (2), Osceola (1), Sumter (0) & Lake (0) counties.

 

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The following games between the ranked teams (29 total) represent an average of 1.61 ranked regular season opponents per ranked team. There are also national opponents that have not been incoporated into this stat.

Weeks 1, 5, 7 and 11 are the best weeks of the season prior to the playoffs.

 

Week 1

DP @ Seminole - Pick: Seminole wins 35-20

Edgewater @ #Bishop Moore - Pick: Edgewater wins 35-17

#Olympia @ West Orange - Pick: West Orange wins 39-24

#Viera @ Cocoa - Pick: Cocoa wins 36-14

Winter Park @ Wekiva - Pick: Winter Park wins 24-13

 

Week 2

Seminole @ Lake Mary

West Orange @ Wekiva

 

Week 3

Jones @ Edgewater

Osceola @ Cocoa

West Orange @ DP

Olympia @ Wekiva

 

Week 4

Bishop Moore @ Jones

 

Week 5

#3 Seminole @ Mainland

#6 Rockledge @ Viera

Winter Park @ Edgewater

Apopka @ DP

 

Week 6

Lake Mary @ West Orange 

 

Week 7

 Mainland @ Cocoa

Apopka @ Jones

DP @ #Wekiva

Lake Mary @ Oviedo

 

Week 8

Winter Park @ Oviedo

Olympia @ DP

West Orange @ Apopka

 

Week 10

Lake Mary @ Apopka

 

Week 11

Cocoa @ Rockledge

West Orange @ Jones

Wekiva @ Apopka

Oviedo @ Spruce Creek

[DarterBlue2]

Coming out of the Spring, Spruce Creek, Edgewater, Osceola, Bishop Moore all looked better than Apopka. Not sure what the regular season brings, but as of now, Apopka is ranked too high by you. 

[Pipe Dreams]

Apopka also lost to Seabreeze 36-0 one year in the spring. Other years they play total cupcakes in the spring.

New coach, Hamilton at RB/wherever, giving them time.

We’re splitting hairs from 2 to 11. Tons of parity expected. Ranking holds.

[FL_HS_football]

I thought Dr Phillips was a fairly young team last year, unless there was a change in coaching or major exodos of talent, cant we expect them to be a title contender in 8A?

[Pipe Dreams]

DP has 9 guys with D1 offers and 6-7 with D1-AA offers. They’re certainly in the 8A North conversation but there are about 8-10 real contenders at this point.

Last year they were very young. The talent is spread across the 2020, 2021 and 2022 classes.

2022 could be a special class for DP.

[DarterBlue2]

1 hour ago, Pipe Dreams said:

Apopka also lost to Seabreeze 36-0 one year in the spring. Other years they play total cupcakes in the spring.

New coach, Hamilton at RB/wherever, giving them time.

We’re splitting hairs from 2 to 11. Tons of parity expected. Ranking holds.

As of the end of spring, the best one could hope for with Jecoryan is that he will be back mid to late season. He had not progressed as well as hoped and was greatly missed in the spring games. The defense looked fine, but the offense is going to need some major sparks. 

I could see 2019 being a 6-4 or 7-3 kind of year, with Apopka struggling to make the playoffs. I hope I am wrong. 

[Pipe Dreams]

Without Hamilton I should drop them a few spots... Didn’t know that. 

[KeemD321]

So is Brevard not considered central Florida?

[Pipe Dreams]

Out of Brevard I’d include Cocoa (~ #1-4) and Rockledge (~ #6-8). Likely Viera as well. 

It’s tough to gauge Brevard comparatively because they tend to play other coastal teams (north and south of Brevard) and don’t have representation in 8A (where a ton of Orlando metro teams are placed).

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SIDE NOTE.. The top 8 to 10 teams in the ranking are very close. We’ll see who rises to the top... for the most part they all play each other.

[Pipe Dreams]

Games between ranked teams added to original post (edit).

[DarterBlue2]

5 hours ago, KeemD321 said:

So is Brevard not considered central Florida?

Of course it is! I think Pipe excluded them because the Orlando Sentinel no longer covers them when they ceded the area to Florida Today. If you include Brevard in his rankings, as he acknowledged, the top ten changes significantly as at least three and possibly up to five Brevard teams would replace teams he had in the list. 

[KeemD321]

On 7/7/2019 at 8:36 PM, DarterBlue2 said:

Of course it is! I think Pipe excluded them because the Orlando Sentinel no longer covers them when they ceded the area to Florida Today. If you include Brevard in his rankings, as he acknowledged, the top ten changes significantly as at least three and possibly up to five Brevard teams would replace teams he had in the list. 

Makes sense. The 3 teams I would add are Rockledge, Cocoa, and Viera. With Eau Gallie as a dark horse.

[imjustafan2]

On 7/7/2019 at 8:36 PM, DarterBlue2 said:

Of course it is! I think Pipe excluded them because the Orlando Sentinel no longer covers them when they ceded the area to Florida Today. If you include Brevard in his rankings, as he acknowledged, the top ten changes significantly as at least three and possibly up to five Brevard teams would replace teams he had in the list. 

That's the response I've gotten from the OS when I've asked in the past. 

[Nolestrong]

Osceola

KOC vs. Lakeland

#2 Columbus (Miami)

#3 Cocoa

#9 Manatee

[skyway]

On 7/7/2019 at 6:38 AM, DarterBlue2 said:

As of the end of spring, the best one could hope for with Jecoryan is that he will be back mid to late season. He had not progressed as well as hoped and was greatly missed in the spring games. The defense looked fine, but the offense is going to need some major sparks. 

I could see 2019 being a 6-4 or 7-3 kind of year, with Apopka struggling to make the playoffs. I hope I am wrong. 

I assume the new coach will not be running Darlington's offense. Just the shift to a new offense will cause a drop-off IMO. Unless they go with a shotgun, up-tempo scheme with simple reads. If they go with a more conventional, "pro" style offense they'll have their worst season statistically (on offense) of the last 25 years.

[skyway]

On 7/7/2019 at 12:12 PM, KeemD321 said:

So is Brevard not considered central Florida?

"Central Florida" refers only to Orlando metro area. It's odd because if one looks at a map they might think other areas would be included. That Polk County isn't central Florida, but Daytona Beach is, is a concept I simply lack the intelligence to understand. 

[skyway]

On 7/6/2019 at 4:21 PM, Pipe Dreams said:

1. Jones (5A-R2)
2. Seminole — (8A R1)
3. Dr Phillips — (8A-R2)
4. Winter Park — (8A-R1)
5. Mainland — (6A-R1)
6. Lake Mary — (8A-R1) 
7. Edgewater — (7A-R1)
8. Osceola — (8A-R1)
9. Apopka — (8A-R2)
10. West Orange — (8A-R1)
11. Bishop Moore — (5A-R2)
12. Wekiva — (7A-R1)
13. Oviedo — (8A-R1)
14. Spruce Creek — (8A-R1)
15. Olympia — (8A-R2)

 

Ranking includes Orange (9 teams), Seminole (3), Volusia (2), Osceola (1), Sumter (0) & Lake (0) counties.

 

#2 Seminole and #3 Dr. Phillips meet in Sanford week 1. Monster game.

How closely have you followed transfers/free agency?

[DarterBlue2]

20 minutes ago, skyway said:

"Central Florida" refers only to Orlando metro area. It's odd because if one looks at a map they might think other areas would be included. That Polk County isn't central Florida, but Daytona Beach is, is a concept I simply lack the intelligence to understand. 

Geographically, you are totally correct. But for reasons, fair or not, Orlando metro people tend to see Polk County as part of the Tampa Bay area. Now for Lakeland (west Polk), this may make sense. But for Haines City or Winter Haven it does not. So there is that ... 

[skyway]

7 minutes ago, DarterBlue2 said:

Geographically, you are totally correct. But for reasons, fair or not, Orlando metro people tend to see Polk County as part of the Tampa Bay area. Now for Lakeland (west Polk), this may make sense. But for Haines City or Winter Haven it does not. So there is that ... 

Indeed. Growing up there, we always had access to both Tampa and Orlando news stations through basic TV (rabbit ears or cable). But, as you said above, this is all about the area the Orlando Sentinel deems worthy of their efforts/where most of their subscribers are from. Polk has the Ledger, so subscriptions to the Sentinel are quite low. I guess it just seems to make more sense to label the rankings "Orlando Sentinel coverage area rankings" 

[Perspective]

1 hour ago, DarterBlue2 said:

Geographically, you are totally correct. But for reasons, fair or not, Orlando metro people tend to see Polk County as part of the Tampa Bay area. Now for Lakeland (west Polk), this may make sense. But for Haines City or Winter Haven it does not. So there is that ... 

Which begs the question:  why isn't the Tampa Bay area considered to be "Central Florida?"   It's really not part of either north or south Florida.  For media purposes, I understand that the greater Tampa Bay area has its own identity, just like Orlando does.   But when you're talking high school sports, it seems like Tampa Bay is more Central than South or North. 

[DarterBlue2]

36 minutes ago, Perspective said:

Which begs the question:  why isn't the Tampa Bay area considered to be "Central Florida?"   It's really not part of either north or south Florida.  For media purposes, I understand that the greater Tampa Bay area has its own identity, just like Orlando does.   But when you're talking high school sports, it seems like Tampa Bay is more Central than South or North. 

Truth of the matter is, the whole I-4 corridor plus Brevard and the counties just north of Tampa should be considered Central Florida. I guess Orlando Metro claims it just because they are also in the middle of the state width wide as well as length wise. But the whole thing is pretty arbitrary. 

[Pipe Dreams]

I will incorporate Brevard soon.

Cocoa #1-3

Rockledge #3-6

Viera #11-13

[Pipe Dreams]

Ranking and schedules adjusted to include Cocoa, Rockledge, Viera. Could see 1-3 more Brevard teams move in.

 

Example spreads from #1 added to show parity.

[imjustafan2]

Thanks Pipe Dreams. I understand you're basically sharing the OS rankings, but I also agree with some of the others that geographically Brevard is in East Central Florida as much or more than, Polk, Lake & Sumter. 

[Pipe Dreams]

pipe dreams, taking input from the board... a pillar of the community