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RPI is a joke


badbird

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2 minutes ago, Hwy17 said:

That system had 3 districts per region instead of 4, so the districts were larger.  And the point system for the 2 wildcard teams was much easier to understand.  

We would still need something for seeding

 

Having seeding for playoffs makes things much easier to understand

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6 minutes ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

We would still need something for seeding

 

Having seeding for playoffs makes things much easier to understand

Under that format the wildcard with the lowest points would play a district champ with the highest points.  So district champs and runner-ups automatically got in but points used for the 2 wildcard spots and seeding.  

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As a person who thinks the old old system (district champs/runner ups) was fine (just increase every district up to 6 teams and put 96 teams in the classes and reduce a class). I also think relegation/promotion are the real long term key to making sure teams are consistently facing competitive opponents. I will continue to say let the current system play out before we get to bent out of shape. In week 7, we still have lots of football to play that can alter who is on top and bottom. I expect next year, the FHSAA will release the results even one week later because of how much movement can happen in 4 weeks. 

 

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3 minutes ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

So the points seeded every team in region?

Basically, but wildcards were seeds 7 & 8 and district champs were 1-3 and district runner-ups 4-6 regardless.  Also as I recall, there were a few wildcard teams to make regional finals that year.  

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13 minutes ago, HornetFan said:

It's kind of strange; I don't think we have any 6A schools in the Central Florida (Orlando) area. 

Lake Minneola & Gateway are both 6a in Central Florida. Lake Minneola used to play up with their South Lake County neighboring schools. But with the mandatory assignments you have Lake Minneola in 6a, South Lake in 7a and East Ridge in 8a.

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3 minutes ago, d0d0joe said:

Lake Minneola & Gateway are both 6a in Central Florida. Lake Minneola used to play up with their South Lake County neighboring schools. But with the mandatory assignments you have Lake Minneola in 6a, South Lake in 7a and East Ridge in 8a.

I saw Lake Minneola, but they play in a Gulf Coast District. It just seems starnge that we are loaded with 8A and 7A, plus a few 5A schools. BM and Jones (5A) have to travel to Lake County for their district games.

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3 hours ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

We got one in our district currently winless, just not the one we expected but I feel if we had to try and fill 10 games on our own we would have been screwed because most these North teams won't play us

 

 

You would probably have ended up with several games in large metro areas (Jax and Orlando). For at least some of these you would have had to travel. 

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2 hours ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

Maybe they should do that system from back in late 90s where they had champs and runner ups and 2 wild cards in each region and use RPI just for seeding and determining the 2 wild card teams

That would be the best.  However I'm still not sure I would want the RPI to determine the seeding and last 2 spots.  Can we get Pinkos to decide it.   I'm willing to bet Pinkos would do a better job.

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1 hour ago, gatorman-uf said:

As a person who thinks the old old system (district champs/runner ups) was fine (just increase every district up to 6 teams and put 96 teams in the classes and reduce a class). I also think relegation/promotion are the real long term key to making sure teams are consistently facing competitive opponents. I will continue to say let the current system play out before we get to bent out of shape. In week 7, we still have lots of football to play that can alter who is on top and bottom. I expect next year, the FHSAA will release the results even one week later because of how much movement can happen in 4 weeks. 

 

let it play out?  you can see it is flawed no need to let it play out to see that.  yes some of the issues will get fixed but when two teams have the same record and team A beat the crap out of team B but team B is ranked higher in RPI it is broken.  

 

I was against your relegation at first but I'm leaning towards it now.  However I think the top class should only have 32 teams.  Then after that put a bunch in each class

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5 minutes ago, badbird said:

That would be the best.  However I'm still not sure I would want the RPI to determine the seeding and last 2 spots.  Can we get Pinkos to decide it.   I'm willing to bet Pinkos would do a better job.

Pinkos or Laz or another person with a long track record. At least I would have more confidence in the data they use. 

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3 hours ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

We got one in our district currently winless, just not the one we expected but I feel if we had to try and fill 10 games on our own we would have been screwed because most these North teams won't play us

 

 

Madison has been this way for a while.  Games are hard to come by.  It is probably how the Columbia-Madison game survives.  We need each other.  Columbia doesn't gain much by playing Madison other than a good gate.

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2 hours ago, badbird said:

let it play out?  you can see it is flawed no need to let it play out to see that.  yes some of the issues will get fixed but when two teams have the same record and team A beat the crap out of team B but team B is ranked higher in RPI it is broken.  

 

I was against your relegation at first but I'm leaning towards it now.  However I think the top class should only have 32 teams.  Then after that put a bunch in each class

My issue with a relegation system is this - Most programs go through a natural up and down cycle on their own and I don't know anyone who wants to move down in class just because of a bad year or two or likewise be moved up a class because of some great years.   Secondly, anyone struggling and feel they can't compete can go independent.   I can give some real examples if needed.  

 

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3 hours ago, badbird said:

let it play out?  you can see it is flawed no need to let it play out to see that.  yes some of the issues will get fixed but when two teams have the same record and team A beat the crap out of team B but team B is ranked higher in RPI it is broken.  

I was against your relegation at first but I'm leaning towards it now.  However I think the top class should only have 32 teams.  Then after that put a bunch in each class

badbird, 
Have you ever see the college basketball RPIs when they used to try and figure out who was going to be in the Tournament. The RPI always has those small flukes. What I would say is that one game is a snapshot, but the RPI measures a season.  I get what your concerns are and yes, I have concerns, but again at the end of the season let's see what teams should be in and don't get in and what teams are in and shouldn't. How many times in the old winner/runner-up, did we look at a runner-up and question their inclusion vs a 3rd or 4th in a stacked district. 

As for actual seeding, I don't care. I didn't mind the old system of alternating home/away based on the top/bottom of the bracket. The reality is that if your team is 3rd seed, you get to host a first round game just like the old system and you go on the road for the other two. This is very similar to the old system. 

I get why you would do 32 teams because that way they are automatically in the playoffs, but then there is no incentive to try because they automatically make the playoffs. 

34 minutes ago, Hwy17 said:

My issue with a relegation system is this - Most programs go through a natural up and down cycle on their own and I don't know anyone who wants to move down in class just because of a bad year or two or likewise be moved up a class because of some great years.   Secondly, anyone struggling and feel they can't compete can go independent.   I can give some real examples if needed.  


HWY,
I would suggest that while many programs have ups and downs, the ones that would move down are going to be teams that are spiraling down whether due to the fact they don't have the population/talent/coaches/culture at the school to compete. A simple example would be schools like Suncoast (Riveria Beach), Stanton (Jax), Paxon (Jax). These are schools that consistently due to being IB/College Prep magnet-only schools (with small zones) do gain the population to compete against schools their own size. So why not move them down until they are competitive. At the time , a school like American Heritage (Delray Beach) had a couple of down years, but generally is a successful program. Could they play at the 8A level, no! They could probably compete at a 4A and 5A level and hold their own.

My process would be slow and only affect the top 10 and bottom 10  in each class. The teams on the bottom of a classification are teams that are consistently 0-10, 1-9, 2-8. They obviously can't compete, so move them down. A school like University Christian (2A) is a good squad and move up from 2A to 3A. Could they win at 3A, probably. Could they compete at 4A, probably, but I wouldn't suggest they could win it. For a team to move from 2A to 8A, it would take nearly 12 years (2 years at each classification). 

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14 minutes ago, gatorman-uf said:

badbird, 
Have you ever see the college basketball RPIs when they used to try and figure out who was going to be in the Tournament. The RPI always has those small flukes. What I would say is that one game is a snapshot, but the RPI measures a season.  I get what your concerns are and yes, I have concerns, but again at the end of the season let's see what teams should be in and don't get in and what teams are in and shouldn't. How many times in the old winner/runner-up, did we look at a runner-up and question their inclusion vs a 3rd or 4th in a stacked district. 

As for actual seeding, I don't care. I didn't mind the old system of alternating home/away based on the top/bottom of the bracket. The reality is that if your team is 3rd seed, you get to host a first round game just like the old system and you go on the road for the other two. This is very similar to the old system. 

I get why you would do 32 teams because that way they are automatically in the playoffs, but then there is no incentive to try because they automatically make the playoffs. 


HWY,
I would suggest that while many programs have ups and downs, the ones that would move down are going to be teams that are spiraling down whether due to the fact they don't have the population/talent/coaches/culture at the school to compete. A simple example would be schools like Suncoast (Riveria Beach), Stanton (Jax), Paxon (Jax). These are schools that consistently due to being IB/College Prep magnet-only schools (with small zones) do gain the population to compete against schools their own size. So why not move them down until they are competitive. At the time , a school like American Heritage (Delray Beach) had a couple of down years, but generally is a successful program. Could they play at the 8A level, no! They could probably compete at a 4A and 5A level and hold their own.

My process would be slow and only affect the top 10 and bottom 10  in each class. The teams on the bottom of a classification are teams that are consistently 0-10, 1-9, 2-8. They obviously can't compete, so move them down. A school like University Christian (2A) is a good squad and move up from 2A to 3A. Could they win at 3A, probably. Could they compete at 4A, probably, but I wouldn't suggest they could win it. For a team to move from 2A to 8A, it would take nearly 12 years (2 years at each classification). 

1.  One thing we should keep in mind about rpi used for basketball, baseball, etc is that those sports have longer seasons so the average is a little more accurate than football, where 1 weak team can throw an average off. 

2.  Take for example a couple teams in my area - Avon Park, they are a 4A school.  They are looking at going 0-10 this year.  This happened to them in 2013 too.  They followed an 0-10 2013 season with a 4-6 2014, then really good 2014, 2015, 2016 & 2017.  2018 was the start of a down turn that shows this cycle repeating itself.  No where do I think they should have been dropped to 3A or 2A for going 0-10, neigher do I see that they should have been promoted to 5A or 6A for their string of good seasons.   --  Another example, Fort Meade, they had nearly a decade of being a dominate 1A school.  They even beat some teams in the upper classes, but would it have been fair for them to have had to play up in class?  Fort Meade right now is struggling but I do believe they will return to winning before long.   -- Lake Gibson, a few years ago they made the state finals, then had a couple of down years, now back to being a contender in class 6A.   Seems to me that they are fine in 6A.  Same can be said for Lake Wales in 5A, a losing season a few years ago but now among the top of their class.

I'm convinced that programs that routinely go 0-10, 1-9 year after year aren't serious about winning.  If they were serious they would schedule light or go independent on their own.   Lake Region, Gibbs, North Port, can follow the example of Lakewood Ranch & Dunedin, put some easier teams on the schedule or go independent.  

Lastly, the examples you give of magnet schools.  If they feel that this is overstating their student population count and forcing them to play up a class, create a separate charter school to reduce the population number.   

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1 hour ago, gatorman-uf said:

badbird, 
Have you ever see the college basketball RPIs when they used to try and figure out who was going to be in the Tournament. The RPI always has those small flukes. What I would say is that one game is a snapshot, but the RPI measures a season.  I get what your concerns are and yes, I have concerns, but again at the end of the season let's see what teams should be in and don't get in and what teams are in and shouldn't. How many times in the old winner/runner-up, did we look at a runner-up and question their inclusion vs a 3rd or 4th in a stacked district. 

As for actual seeding, I don't care. I didn't mind the old system of alternating home/away based on the top/bottom of the bracket. The reality is that if your team is 3rd seed, you get to host a first round game just like the old system and you go on the road for the other two. This is very similar to the old system. 

I get why you would do 32 teams because that way they are automatically in the playoffs, but then there is no incentive to try because they automatically make the playoffs. 


HWY,
I would suggest that while many programs have ups and downs, the ones that would move down are going to be teams that are spiraling down whether due to the fact they don't have the population/talent/coaches/culture at the school to compete. A simple example would be schools like Suncoast (Riveria Beach), Stanton (Jax), Paxon (Jax). These are schools that consistently due to being IB/College Prep magnet-only schools (with small zones) do gain the population to compete against schools their own size. So why not move them down until they are competitive. At the time , a school like American Heritage (Delray Beach) had a couple of down years, but generally is a successful program. Could they play at the 8A level, no! They could probably compete at a 4A and 5A level and hold their own.

My process would be slow and only affect the top 10 and bottom 10  in each class. The teams on the bottom of a classification are teams that are consistently 0-10, 1-9, 2-8. They obviously can't compete, so move them down. A school like University Christian (2A) is a good squad and move up from 2A to 3A. Could they win at 3A, probably. Could they compete at 4A, probably, but I wouldn't suggest they could win it. For a team to move from 2A to 8A, it would take nearly 12 years (2 years at each classification). 

Well we already pay coaches like they coaching middle school

 

Guess we should have a middle school level playoff bracket too where home playoff games are handed not earned 

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1 hour ago, gatorman-uf said:

badbird, 
Have you ever see the college basketball RPIs when they used to try and figure out who was going to be in the Tournament. The RPI always has those small flukes. What I would say is that one game is a snapshot, but the RPI measures a season.  I get what your concerns are and yes, I have concerns, but again at the end of the season let's see what teams should be in and don't get in and what teams are in and shouldn't. How many times in the old winner/runner-up, did we look at a runner-up and question their inclusion vs a 3rd or 4th in a stacked district. 

As for actual seeding, I don't care. I didn't mind the old system of alternating home/away based on the top/bottom of the bracket. The reality is that if your team is 3rd seed, you get to host a first round game just like the old system and you go on the road for the other two. This is very similar to the old system. 

I get why you would do 32 teams because that way they are automatically in the playoffs, but then there is no incentive to try because they automatically make the playoffs. 


HWY,
I would suggest that while many programs have ups and downs, the ones that would move down are going to be teams that are spiraling down whether due to the fact they don't have the population/talent/coaches/culture at the school to compete. A simple example would be schools like Suncoast (Riveria Beach), Stanton (Jax), Paxon (Jax). These are schools that consistently due to being IB/College Prep magnet-only schools (with small zones) do gain the population to compete against schools their own size. So why not move them down until they are competitive. At the time , a school like American Heritage (Delray Beach) had a couple of down years, but generally is a successful program. Could they play at the 8A level, no! They could probably compete at a 4A and 5A level and hold their own.

My process would be slow and only affect the top 10 and bottom 10  in each class. The teams on the bottom of a classification are teams that are consistently 0-10, 1-9, 2-8. They obviously can't compete, so move them down. A school like University Christian (2A) is a good squad and move up from 2A to 3A. Could they win at 3A, probably. Could they compete at 4A, probably, but I wouldn't suggest they could win it. For a team to move from 2A to 8A, it would take nearly 12 years (2 years at each classification). 

2 hours ago, Hwy17 said:

My issue with a relegation system is this - Most programs go through a natural up and down cycle on their own and I don't know anyone who wants to move down in class just because of a bad year or two or likewise be moved up a class because of some great years.   Secondly, anyone struggling and feel they can't compete can go independent.   I can give some real examples if needed.  

 

The teams I list in the thread below are likely the types that would get relegated under such a system.  These are typically not teams having one or two bad seasons.    

 

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1 minute ago, OldSchoolLion said:

The teams I list in the thread below are likely the types that would get relegated under such a system.  These are typically not teams having one or two bad seasons.    

 

A promotion/regulation system isn't a bad idea but It's also one i know was basically proposed for other sports back earlier in year or late last year and it got shot down hard

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Assume we would have a relegation cycle every 2 years and use a combined 2-year record to determine who got dropped in class.  If we did a relegation this year based on the past 2-year results in 7A, here are the teams that would have gotten relegated.   Their 2-year record is listed after each team.  

As a rule of thumb, any team that could win 4 games in 2 years would be "safe" from relegation.   

Leto 0-20

Royal Palm Beach 0-20

Mourning 1-19

Westland Hialeah 1-18

Lennard 2-18

Ely 3-17

Wharton 3-17

Bartow 3-17

Strawberry Crest 3-17

Celebration 3-17

 

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12 minutes ago, OldSchoolLion said:

Assume we would have a relegation cycle every 2 years and use a combined 2-year record to determine who got dropped in class.  If we did a relegation this year based on the past 2-year results in 7A, here are the teams that would have gotten relegated.   Their 2-year record is listed after each team.  

As a rule of thumb, any team that could win 4 games in 2 years would be "safe" from relegation.   

Leto 0-20

Royal Palm Beach 0-20

Mourning 1-19

Westland Hialeah 1-18

Lennard 2-18

Ely 3-17

Wharton 3-17

Bartow 3-17

Strawberry Crest 3-17

Celebration 3-17

 

Bartow and Lennard seem to be doing ok this year without relegation 

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2 minutes ago, Hwy17 said:

Bartow and Lennard seem to be doing ok this year without relegation 

Would you be willing to bet your house that their success is sustainable?  Look at who they have played.  It's not as if they are likely to be a challenger this year in their respective classes, if ever. 

What's the worst that can happen?  Imagine the excitement that could be generated at the school if they had dropped down in class and ultimately became a challenger in the lower class this year.  And within two years, they could potentially return to the class they were in if their turnaround was that great.     

For every "exception," there are 5 teams struggling to stay afloat or spiraling downward.

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1 minute ago, OldSchoolLion said:

Would you be willing to bet your house that their success is sustainable?  Look at who they have played.  It's not as if they are likely to be a challenger this year in their respective classes, if ever. 

What's the worst that can happen?  Imagine the excitement that could be generated at the school if they had dropped down in class and ultimately became a challenger in the lower class this year.  And within two years, they could potentially return to the class they were in if their turnaround was that great.     

For every "exception," there are 5 teams struggling to stay afloat or spiraling downward.

While it remains to be seen if success is sustainable for either Bartow or Lennard this is something I observe: Last year Bartow was 0-10 but seeing them in person their players were just as big and fast as any of the others on our schedule they just seemed to lack any strategy.  During the off season they hired an experienced coach with a track record of winning and turning teams around.  Lennard I don't follow as closely but I seem to recall they had a good team a few years ago, the natural up and down cycle like many others do.

Now take a program like Lake Region.  They go through a coaching change every year. To me, the school's administration isn't serious about having a successful football program.  If anything they need to be forced to go independent as they are costing our district. 

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