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Hwy17

Rpi question

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Are canceled non district games required to be made up.  How does a 9 game schedule factor? Example two schools both have 6 wins but one is 6-4 and the other 6-3; the 6-3 team has a higher winning percentage just because they played one less game.

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1 hour ago, Hwy17 said:

Are canceled non district games required to be made up.  How does a 9 game schedule factor? Example two schools both have 6 wins but one is 6-4 and the other 6-3; the 6-3 team has a higher winning percentage just because they played one less game.

Or a team could be 7-3 and have a higher winning percentage because they played one more game.  If both teams agree not to okay the game it doesn’t have to be made up 

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10 hours ago, badbird said:

Or a team could be 7-3 and have a higher winning percentage because they played one more game.  If both teams agree not to okay the game it doesn’t have to be made up 

RPI is based on averages.  In sports like baseball and basketball, 1 game doesn't matter as much.  In football 1 game does.  I'm starting to think we'd be better off scheduling 9 games instead of 10 seeing how the rpi is calculated.  

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Team A (doesn't play 10th game):

6-3... .666 WP = .233 towards their RPI Score 

Team B: (loses the 10th game)
6-4... .600 WP = .210 towards their RPI Score

Team C: (wins the 10th game)
7-3.... .700 WP =  .245 towards their RPI Score

_________________ 

HWY, it depends if they would win or lose their 10th game. If they were to lose the 10th game, they would lose .023 towards their RPI score. It they were to win, they would gain .012 towards their RPI score. As a coach, risk/reward sets in. Is it worth trying to get that extra .012 if the potential also exists if you were to lose .023.

 

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35 minutes ago, gatorman-uf said:

Team A (doesn't play 10th game):

6-3... .666 WP = .233 towards their RPI Score 

Team B: (loses the 10th game)
6-4... .600 WP = .210 towards their RPI Score

Team C: (wins the 10th game)
7-3.... .700 WP =  .245 towards their RPI Score

_________________ 

HWY, it depends if they would win or lose their 10th game. If they were to lose the 10th game, they would lose .023 towards their RPI score. It they were to win, they would gain .012 towards their RPI score. As a coach, risk/reward sets in. Is it worth trying to get that extra .012 if the potential also exists if you were to lose .023.

 

Or you schedule 4 easy out of district games.  :D

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35 minutes ago, Hwy17 said:

Or you schedule 4 easy out of district games.  :D

If only it that simple

 

Ik that we had 3 decent north FL teams who refused to play us this year after having played last year (Bolles, Buchholz, Suwannee)

 

And considering we are a "decent team at best" according to some people on here who's to say you can convince some "cupcake" much less 4 of them to play you

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18 minutes ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

If only it that simple

 

Ik that we had 3 decent north FL teams who refused to play us this year after having played last year (Bolles, Buchholz, Suwannee)

 

And considering we are a "decent team at best" according to some people on here who's to say you can convince some "cupcake" much less 4 of them to play you

I saw this last year with the point system.  It seems your better of scheduling a team you can easily beat than risk losing a game. 

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1 hour ago, Hwy17 said:

I saw this last year with the point system.  It seems your better of scheduling a team you can easily beat than risk losing a game. 


I think a team that loads up on highly difficult teams (Trinity Christian, Pahokee) and wins half or less are definitely going to struggle in 1A-4A to make the playoffs. I said at the beginning of the year that Pahokee would not make the playoffs because of how difficult their schedule was. Trinity Christian the same thing. You can schedule all the hard teams you want, but ultimately you have to win some of those games. If 4-6 Plant makes the playoffs, I think that will be an indictment of the system, just like last year an 0-9 Gadsden County making the playoffs was.  

As for playing 4 cupcakes, if you are a middle of the road team for your classification (Suwannee would be a good example), then it would be easier to schedule local cupcakes because nobody thinks you are going to dominate them. As a result, you end up with 6-7 wins and a good chance of making the playoffs. 

The FHSAA is trying to find ways for tough teams to play tough teams, and because teams can make their own schedules teams can refuse to play tough teams or end up traveling 3+ hours to find a game. The reality is that promotion/relegation would slowly push teams to their correct spot. 

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45 minutes ago, gatorman-uf said:


I think a team that loads up on highly difficult teams (Trinity Christian, Pahokee) and wins half or less are definitely going to struggle in 1A-4A to make the playoffs. I said at the beginning of the year that Pahokee would not make the playoffs because of how difficult their schedule was. Trinity Christian the same thing. You can schedule all the hard teams you want, but ultimately you have to win some of those games. If 4-6 Plant makes the playoffs, I think that will be an indictment of the system, just like last year an 0-9 Gadsden County making the playoffs was.  

As for playing 4 cupcakes, if you are a middle of the road team for your classification (Suwannee would be a good example), then it would be easier to schedule local cupcakes because nobody thinks you are going to dominate them. As a result, you end up with 6-7 wins and a good chance of making the playoffs. 

The FHSAA is trying to find ways for tough teams to play tough teams, and because teams can make their own schedules teams can refuse to play tough teams or end up traveling 3+ hours to find a game. The reality is that promotion/relegation would slowly push teams to their correct spot. 

How will a promotion/regulation help tougher teams fill schedules for non conference games?

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38 minutes ago, gatorman-uf said:


 If 4-6 Plant makes the playoffs, I think that will be an indictment of the system, just like last year an 0-9 Gadsden County making the playoffs was.  

 

Before you indict Plant or the system (and assuming this were to happen), I think you have to look at two things . . . in addition to the combined record of the teams that Plant has lost to this year (41-7; 41-3 if you take out losses to other teams in the group of six):  First, until the changes a few years back (3 years ago??), district runners up automatically made the playoffs.  Because Plant won its district 14 years in a row, it never had to worry about sliding in the playoff backdoor as a runner up.  But that would be the case this year if we were still operating under the old system that was in place for more years than I can count (and, again, assuming Plant wins this week).  Second, I think you have to look at the other teams in Region 2.  Take out the top 6 teams or so (for purposes of argument, Dr. Phillips, Kissimee Osceola, Lake Nona, Steinbrenner, Sarasota Riverview and Newsome and perhaps Lennard if you want to add a 7th team) and there really aren't that many, if any, other playoff-caliber teams.   Perhaps I have just proven your point and that it is the new system, and not any one team, that will deserve to be indicted if all that comes to fruition.  But just remember, the reward that a 8 or 7 seed gets for sneaking into the playoffs is a road game against the best or second best team in the region.  In other words, after week one of the playoffs, it really becomes a moot point.

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1 hour ago, gatorman-uf said:


I think a team that loads up on highly difficult teams (Trinity Christian, Pahokee) and wins half or less are definitely going to struggle in 1A-4A to make the playoffs. I said at the beginning of the year that Pahokee would not make the playoffs because of how difficult their schedule was. Trinity Christian the same thing. You can schedule all the hard teams you want, but ultimately you have to win some of those games. If 4-6 Plant makes the playoffs, I think that will be an indictment of the system, just like last year an 0-9 Gadsden County making the playoffs was.  

As for playing 4 cupcakes, if you are a middle of the road team for your classification (Suwannee would be a good example), then it would be easier to schedule local cupcakes because nobody thinks you are going to dominate them. As a result, you end up with 6-7 wins and a good chance of making the playoffs. 

The FHSAA is trying to find ways for tough teams to play tough teams, and because teams can make their own schedules teams can refuse to play tough teams or end up traveling 3+ hours to find a game. The reality is that promotion/relegation would slowly push teams to their correct spot. 

My team is sitting at 4-4 right now and going by the latest rpi we are in 10th place.  If we win out we have a shot of getting in but also might need a little help.  I look at some of the ones ahead of us rpi wise and honestly feel that we played a little tougher schedule.  Of course we have a few bad teams on the schedule that hurt our rpi,; games we won by blowout.   While the games we lost were to tough opponents and were fun games to watch, two determined in the last minute, I can't help but think the math works against us.  

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2 hours ago, gatorman-uf said:


I think a team that loads up on highly difficult teams (Trinity Christian, Pahokee) and wins half or less are definitely going to struggle in 1A-4A to make the playoffs. I said at the beginning of the year that Pahokee would not make the playoffs because of how difficult their schedule was. Trinity Christian the same thing. You can schedule all the hard teams you want, but ultimately you have to win some of those games. If 4-6 Plant makes the playoffs, I think that will be an indictment of the system, just like last year an 0-9 Gadsden County making the playoffs was.  

As for playing 4 cupcakes, if you are a middle of the road team for your classification (Suwannee would be a good example), then it would be easier to schedule local cupcakes because nobody thinks you are going to dominate them. As a result, you end up with 6-7 wins and a good chance of making the playoffs. 

The FHSAA is trying to find ways for tough teams to play tough teams, and because teams can make their own schedules teams can refuse to play tough teams or end up traveling 3+ hours to find a game. The reality is that promotion/relegation would slowly push teams to their correct spot. 

You keep saying they won’t make it, but both Trinity and Pahokee are sitting in playoffs spots. Both teams win one more game and they will be locked in. Anything happens after that. 

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On 10/21/2019 at 9:25 PM, Hwy17 said:

Are canceled non district games required to be made up.  How does a 9 game schedule factor? Example two schools both have 6 wins but one is 6-4 and the other 6-3; the 6-3 team has a higher winning percentage just because they played one less game.

YES! The district games have to be made up unless the FHSAA okays it (or someone forfeits, but if they do that, then they run the risk of a playoff ban for the remainder of the cycle) and that is VERY RARE (See Hurricane Michael example of how extreme it would have to be).

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This RPI thing got some teams playing garbage schedules but racking up wins.  Then a team they lose to also beat a bunch of bad teams but have a good record. So it helps their sos.    So a team that played a harder schedule end up left out.  

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16 minutes ago, Stangs1 said:

This RPI thing got some teams playing garbage schedules but racking up wins.  Then a team they lose to also beat a bunch of bad teams but have a good record. So it helps their sos.    So a team that played a harder schedule end up left out.  

Not totally true... Plant could finish 4-6 and end up the 8th seed in Region 2 in Class 8A. 

Trinity Christian (Jax) could finish 4-6 and still make it in. 

Some teams are overachieving to what they are traditionally performing at. 

Teams will have cycles. It happens. 

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Winter park never seem to play a great schedule.  When the playoffs come, it shows.  Timber creek has feasted on a bad schedule as well. Mandarin on the outside looking in while beating oakleaf, sandalwood( 2 teams i think would beat anyone on WP or Timber schedule)  and losing to district winner bartram. 

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9 hours ago, Stangs1 said:

This RPI thing got some teams playing garbage schedules but racking up wins.  Then a team they lose to also beat a bunch of bad teams but have a good record. So it helps their sos.    So a team that played a harder schedule end up left out.  

Exactly! And it really sucks when the one ahead of you has played an overall softer schedule but has a higher rpi. 

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10 hours ago, Joshua Wilson said:

YES! The district games have to be made up unless the FHSAA okays it (or someone forfeits, but if they do that, then they run the risk of a playoff ban for the remainder of the cycle) and that is VERY RARE (See Hurricane Michael example of how extreme it would have to be).

Gulf High School? They play Zephyrhills this week, or have they already forfeited that game?

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1 hour ago, Stangs1 said:

Winter park never seem to play a great schedule.  When the playoffs come, it shows.  Timber creek has feasted on a bad schedule as well. Mandarin on the outside looking in while beating oakleaf, sandalwood( 2 teams i think would beat anyone on WP or Timber schedule)  and losing to district winner bartram. 

winter park and timber creek, both metro orlando teams,

have their non district schedule handed to them by the county....im sure you could get either one to play someone besides metro teams.  they are (most of the time) in the same district too. 

last couple years Winter park has faired pretty well in playoffs

was a missed kick, I believe, from beating seminole 2 or 3 seasons ago and being a final 4 team.

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29 minutes ago, Hwy17 said:

Gulf High School? They play Zephyrhills this week, or have they already forfeited that game?

It will be forfeited. Pretty sure they will be forced to independent status on 2020 depending on what they decide to do with the program at Gulf. 

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1 minute ago, Joshua Wilson said:

It will be forfeited. Pretty sure they will be forced to independent status on 2020 depending on what they decide to do with the program at Gulf. 

The ripple effect! SMH

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1 hour ago, h8r said:

winter park and timber creek, both metro orlando teams,

have their non district schedule handed to them by the county....im sure you could get either one to play someone besides metro teams.  they are (most of the time) in the same district too. 

last couple years Winter park has faired pretty well in playoffs

was a missed kick, I believe, from beating seminole 2 or 3 seasons ago and being a final 4 team.

WP Got waxed last year at home in the playoffs.  Their players even said after the game, we got a great record but we played nobody.  I thought they would be Mandarins  toughest test last year.  Turned out to be one of the easier games.

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A few years ago Trinity Catholic went over to play Gulf HS. I still remember their Principal coming over to the visitor's stands, introducing himself, and stating "hopefully the Celtics will take it easy on us". We did win 60-0. The Gulf coach actually didn't play his Senior QB who was D-1 and had offers from a bunch of schools. I thought that was pretty strange as he was fit to play and the Celtics had prepared all week to face him. It seems that things have not really changed since that time.

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2 hours ago, Hwy17 said:

Exactly! And it really sucks when the one ahead of you has played an overall softer schedule but has a higher rpi. 

Mandarin loss to 8-0 Bartram.   7-0 st Thomas aquinas.   And 5-3   Lee in the rain on the road.  Now sitting out of the playoffs.  Smh

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