Teams with Losing Records That Could Make the Playoffs

[OldSchoolLion]

Here are some teams that would make the playoffs today if it was the end of the season.  I stopped at 3A.

 

8A-R1 Coral Gables 3-5

5A-R1 Godby 4-5

4A-R1 Bradford 3-4

4A-R1 South Walton 3-4

4A-R3 Lake Placid 3-5

4A-R4 Carol City 4-5

3A-R1 Trinity Christian 4-5

3A-R2 First Academy 3-4

3A-R2 Frostproof 4-5

3A-R2 Taylor 3-4

 

 

[KeemD321]

10 minutes ago, OldSchoolLion said:

Here are some teams that would make the playoffs today if it was the end of the season.  I stopped at 3A.

 

8A-R1 Coral Gables 3-5

5A-R1 Godby 4-5

4A-R1 Bradford 3-4

4A-R1 South Walton 3-4

4A-R3 Lake Placid 3-5

4A-R4 Carol City 4-5

3A-R1 Trinity Christian 4-5

3A-R2 First Academy 3-4

3A-R2 Frostproof 4-5

3A-R2 Taylor 3-4

 

 

Out of those teams TCA and Carol City would make some noise in the playoffs if not make it to the finals. TCA guaranteed. Carol City would have a harder path to state. 4A South is Stacked. Godby could make it out of the 1st round depending on who they play. 

[blackmagic]

1A

Pahokee 2-5
Fort white 3-5
Bozeman 3-4
Jefferson county 1-7

2A

North Florida Christian 3-4
St Joseph 3-4
North Florida Educational 3-4
Trinity Christian 3-5
Saint Francis 2-6
 

[Steinbrenner Warriors]

You are forgetting a very popular one in Plant who started 0-6, is currently 2-6 and #9 in 8a region 2. Their SOS is absurd and helping them a lot. They will likely end 4-6 although their SOS will come down a bit. Will be interesting

[Perspective]

3 hours ago, Steinbrenner Warriors said:

You are forgetting a very popular one in Plant who started 0-6, is currently 2-6 and #9 in 8a region 2. Their SOS is absurd and helping them a lot. They will likely end 4-6 although their SOS will come down a bit. Will be interesting

I was thinking the same thing until I re-read the question . . . "teams that would make the playoffs today if it was the end of the season."  Right now, as you stated, Plant is the ninth highest team in 8A Region 2 (up from 11th a week ago).  They still have to jump at least one more team (without getting jumped themselves) to make the playoffs.   But, if the playoffs started today, Plant would be sitting home.  

Fortunately, four of the teams above Plant in the PRI rankings play each other this week (Riverview plays Lennard and Kissimmee Osceola plays Lake Nona).   If I've done my math right,  two of those teams will pick up a loss this week.    From Plant's standpoint, they'll probably be rooting for the higher ranked teams (Lennard and Osceola) to win. 

[Pipe Dreams]

PLANT... called it when they were 0-6.

WP should be weighted 50% instead of 35%.
 

OOWP should be weighted lower. All hover near .500.

[OldSchoolLion]

Here are some teams that would make the playoffs today if it was the end of the season.  I stopped at 3A.

8A-R1 Coral Gables 3-6

5A-R1 Godby 4-6

4A-R1 Bradford 3-5

4A-R2  Astronaut 4-5

4A-R2 Space Coast 4-5

4A-R3 Lake Placid 3-6

4A-R3 Clewiston 4-5

4A-R3 Lemon Bay 2-7

4A-R4 Carol City 4-5

3A-R2 MCC 3-5

3A-R2 Frostproof 4-5

 

[Perspective]

On 10/23/2019 at 6:15 PM, Pipe Dreams said:

PLANT... called it when they were 0-6.

WP should be weighted 50% instead of 35%.
 

OOWP should be weighted lower. All hover near .500.

I agree . . . starting next year. 

[Perspective]

Before too many people get bent out of shape about a (possibly) 4-6 Plant team making the playoffs, remember two things: 

1.  Based on OWP, they've played the second toughest schedule in the state (behind Carol City).

2.  They went 3-1 in their district, finishing second, and for many years, would have made the playoffs as the district runner-up. 

[KeemD321]

13 hours ago, OldSchoolLion said:

Here are some teams that would make the playoffs today if it was the end of the season.  I stopped at 3A.

8A-R1 Coral Gables 3-6

5A-R1 Godby 4-6

4A-R1 Bradford 3-5

4A-R2  Astronaut 4-5

4A-R2 Space Coast 4-5

4A-R3 Lake Placid 3-6

4A-R3 Clewiston 4-5

4A-R3 Lemon Bay 2-7

4A-R4 Carol City 4-5

3A-R2 MCC 3-5

3A-R2 Frostproof 4-5

 

Astronaut is gonna end the season 5-5 they play Titusville this week. Space Coast will be 4-6 they're playing Heritage.

[Hwy17]

On 10/23/2019 at 6:15 PM, Pipe Dreams said:

PLANT... called it when they were 0-6.

WP should be weighted 50% instead of 35%.
 

OOWP should be weighted lower. All hover near .500.

I agree,  just like last year's point system.  A win should be worth more than a loss. 

 

14 minutes ago, Perspective said:

Before too many people get bent out of shape about a (possibly) 4-6 Plant team making the playoffs, remember two things: 

1.  Based on OWP, they've played the second toughest schedule in the state (behind Carol City).

2.  They went 3-1 in their district, finishing second, and for many years, would have made the playoffs as the district runner-up. 

The reason district runner-ups automatically qualified was because districts use to be large and winning teams were being left out.  Then by going to smaller districts, losing teams were making the playoffs and some teams with winning seasons still got left out.  These point systems and rpi systems were suppose to cure that.  They have not!  

How bad did Plant lose some  of those games?  I don't care how hard the schedule is, if you are getting beat bad, you got no business making the playoffs!  Doesn't prove you are more deserving than a winning team with an easier schedule.  To me, its like taking a student that would struggle with basic math, putting them in advance calculus, then saying their F is better than the student who got an A in basic math. 

[LakelandGator]

34 minutes ago, Hwy17 said:

These point systems and rpi systems were suppose to cure that.  They have not!  

How bad did Plant lose some  of those games?  I don't care how hard the schedule is, if you are getting beat bad, you got no business making the playoffs!  Doesn't prove you are more deserving than a winning team with an easier schedule.  To me, its like taking a student that would struggle with basic math, putting them in advance calculus, then saying their F is better than the student who got an A in basic math. 

There are 3 things in life you can always count on:

1. Death 

2. Taxes.

3. Plant fans with excuses and whining.

https://twitter.com/CountyPolk

[Perspective]

2 hours ago, Hwy17 said:

I agree,  just like last year's point system.  A win should be worth more than a loss. 

 

The reason district runner-ups automatically qualified was because districts use to be large and winning teams were being left out.  Then by going to smaller districts, losing teams were making the playoffs and some teams with winning seasons still got left out.  These point systems and rpi systems were suppose to cure that.  They have not!  

How bad did Plant lose some  of those games?  I don't care how hard the schedule is, if you are getting beat bad, you got no business making the playoffs!  Doesn't prove you are more deserving than a winning team with an easier schedule.  To me, its like taking a student that would struggle with basic math, putting them in advance calculus, then saying their F is better than the student who got an A in basic math. 

Between 2005 and 2012, Plant played in a 4-team district (not always the same class, district or four teams), going 3-0 every year.  Each year, the district runner-up also went to the playoffs.  In 2013 and 2014, Plant's district had 6 teams in it.  Plant went 5-0 both years in district play and in both years, the district runner-up made the playoffs. For 2015-2018, Plant's district had 7 teams in it.  Each of those four years, Plant went 6-0.  I think the district runner-up automatically qualified for the playoffs in '15, '16 and maybe '17, but definitely not in '18.  So, at least for Plant, the districts actually got bigger between 2005 and 2018.   This year, their district has 5 teams.  Plant finished 3-1 in district play, but based on the changes, will not automatically qualify as a district runner-up.

You make a valid point about some of Plant's early season losses.   I can offer up a number of explanations, but they'll all sound like excuses, so I won't.  Bottom line:  Plant got their butts kicked by some pretty good teams early on in the season (helping to explain why, from an OWP standpoint, Plant has played the second toughest schedule in the state this year).  A couple of the games were blowouts, a couple were very competitive and a couple fell somewhere in between.  For what it's worth, all of the losses were to teams who were and/or still are ranked in the Top 10 of their classification. 

Again, I understand the point you're making, but is there another team in 8A, Region 2 that 'deserves' that 8th and final spot more than Plant does this year?  Maybe so (and it could still happen).  In the end, I'm not sure it really matters, as the reward for claiming this final spot is a road game against the number one seed in the district. 

Ultimately, the problem is that you have to come up with a system and put that system in place before teams schedule their games in order to be fair.  And you just don't know what teams and what districts are going to be good from one year to the next.  In other words, there is no perfect system and there will always be 'bad teams,' 'teams that don't deserve it,' or 'outlier' teams that make the playoffs.  And those teams typically lose in the first round and then it's a non-issue.   Just like when a Cinderella college basketball teams gets hot and rolls off three or four wins in their conference tournament to get the automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament . . . and then loses in the play in game or gets a 16 seed and gets drilled by 30 points by Duke or Kentucky. 

[Perspective]

47 minutes ago, LakelandGator said:

There are 3 things in life you can always count on:

1. Death 

2. Taxes.

3. Certain Lakeland fans trying to explain, with a straight face, how 15 Polk County kids every year randomly make the decision to transfer to Lakeland with no outside influence. 

 

Fixed that for you, sir. 

[Hwy17]

4 minutes ago, Perspective said:

Between 2005 and 2012, Plant played in a 4-team district (not always the same class, district or four teams), going 3-0 every year.  Each year, the district runner-up also went to the playoffs.  In 2013 and 2014, Plant's district had 6 teams in it.  Plant went 5-0 both years in district play and in both years, the district runner-up made the playoffs. For 2015-2018, Plant's district had 7 teams in it.  Each of those four years, Plant went 6-0.  I think the district runner-up automatically qualified for the playoffs in '15, '16 and maybe '17, but definitely not in '18.  So, at least for Plant, the districts actually got bigger between 2005 and 2018.   This year, their district has 5 teams.  Plant finished 3-1 in district play, but based on the changes, will not automatically qualify as a district runner-up.

You make a valid point about some of Plant's early season losses.   I can offer up a number of explanations, but they'll all sound like excuses, so I won't.  Bottom line:  Plant got their butts kicked by some pretty good teams early on in the season (helping to explain why, from an OWP standpoint, Plant has played the second toughest schedule in the state this year).  A couple of the games were blowouts, a couple were very competitive and a couple fell somewhere in between.  For what it's worth, all of the losses were to teams who were and/or still are ranked in the Top 10 of their classification. 

Again, I understand the point you're making, but is there another team in 8A, Region 2 that 'deserves' that 8th and final spot more than Plant does this year?  Maybe so (and it could still happen).  In the end, I'm not sure it really matters, as the reward for claiming this final spot is a road game against the number one seed in the district. 

Ultimately, the problem is that you have to come up with a system and put that system in place before teams schedule their games in order to be fair.  And you just don't know what teams and what districts are going to be good from one year to the next.  In other words, their is no perfect season and there will always be 'bad teams,' 'teams that don't deserve it,' or 'outlier' teams that make the playoffs.  And those teams typically lose in the first round and then it's a non-issue.   Just like when a Cinderella college basketball teams gets hot and rolls off three or four wins in their conference tournament to get the automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament . . . and then loses in the play in game or gets a 16 seed and gets drilled by 30 points by Duke or Kentucky. 

I liked the idea of district runner-ups getting in when it first came out.  We still had 7-9 teams in a district.   You don't want to get me started on have many times I saw 9-1 or 8-2 teams get left out because of a tie-breaker or the district they were in was stacked.  Our goal was to make this more fair and clearly we have not accomplished that goal. 

Last year, my team was the #1 seed and we got beat by a #8 seed that some felt didn't deserve to be there because they were 3rd in their district but had more points than the 2nd place team. But they matched up better with us than probably any of the others in the region.  So I get to hear it how we just didn't deserve to the #1 seed because we played a weak schedule.  This year we've played a much tougher schedule, knowing we were going to be down because of all the seniors we graduated.  All of our loses are close games that could have gone either way.  Yet we're in 11th place because of the weak teams on our schedule that negate the tough teams we played in the rpi calculation.   We blew out the weak teams on our schedule and if you do a side by side comparison with those in the 8th, 9th and 10th spots, I could make a strong argument we're more deserving.  

[Perspective]

56 minutes ago, Hwy17 said:

I liked the idea of district runner-ups getting in when it first came out.  We still had 7-9 teams in a district.   You don't want to get me started on have many times I saw 9-1 or 8-2 teams get left out because of a tie-breaker or the district they were in was stacked.  Our goal was to make this more fair and clearly we have not accomplished that goal. 

Last year, my team was the #1 seed and we got beat by a #8 seed that some felt didn't deserve to be there because they were 3rd in their district but had more points than the 2nd place team. But they matched up better with us than probably any of the others in the region.  So I get to hear it how we just didn't deserve to the #1 seed because we played a weak schedule.  This year we've played a much tougher schedule, knowing we were going to be down because of all the seniors we graduated.  All of our loses are close games that could have gone either way.  Yet we're in 11th place because of the weak teams on our schedule that negate the tough teams we played in the rpi calculation.   We blew out the weak teams on our schedule and if you do a side by side comparison with those in the 8th, 9th and 10th spots, I could make a strong argument we're more deserving.  

I feel your pain.  

I would like to see the current system tweaked a little:  do away with (or significantly de-emphasize) the OOWP and give more weight to each team's own record  (maybe a 50/40/10 breakdown). 

[JaxTCA2010stateCHAMP]

5 hours ago, Hwy17 said:

I liked the idea of district runner-ups getting in when it first came out.  We still had 7-9 teams in a district.   You don't want to get me started on have many times I saw 9-1 or 8-2 teams get left out because of a tie-breaker or the district they were in was stacked.  Our goal was to make this more fair and clearly we have not accomplished that goal. 

Last year, my team was the #1 seed and we got beat by a #8 seed that some felt didn't deserve to be there because they were 3rd in their district but had more points than the 2nd place team. But they matched up better with us than probably any of the others in the region.  So I get to hear it how we just didn't deserve to the #1 seed because we played a weak schedule.  This year we've played a much tougher schedule, knowing we were going to be down because of all the seniors we graduated.  All of our loses are close games that could have gone either way.  Yet we're in 11th place because of the weak teams on our schedule that negate the tough teams we played in the rpi calculation.   We blew out the weak teams on our schedule and if you do a side by side comparison with those in the 8th, 9th and 10th spots, I could make a strong argument we're more deserving.  

Don’t feel bad bro Jax Tca might get put out the playoffs by Wolfson... Wolfson would get killed by TCA but we’re 5-5 and their 7-2 with one game left .... most of the team Wolfson have played suck ,while TCA played one of the hardest schedule in the state .. imma be pissed if Wolfson jumps us because they have one game left !!!

[shredstar]

43 minutes ago, JaxTCA2010stateCHAMP said:

Don’t feel bad bro Jax Tca might get put out the playoffs by Wolfson... Wolfson would get killed by TCA but we’re 5-5 and their 7-2 with one game left .... most of the team Wolfson have played suck ,while TCA played one of the hardest schedule in the state .. imma be pissed if Wolfson jumps us because they have one game left !!!

No worries.  It is mathematically impossible for Wolfson to jump TCA.  

[HornetFan]

9 hours ago, Perspective said:

Before too many people get bent out of shape about a (possibly) 4-6 Plant team making the playoffs, remember two things: 

1.  Based on OWP, they've played the second toughest schedule in the state (behind Carol City).

2.  They went 3-1 in their district, finishing second, and for many years, would have made the playoffs as the district runner-up. 

They lost to every one of the good teams on their schedule, including 49-0 to Steinbrenner, the team they would probably play in the opening round of the playoffs.

[LakelandGator]

23 hours ago, Perspective said:

Fixed that for you, sir. 

Fix 3-6

[Perspective]

17 hours ago, HornetFan said:

They lost to every one of the good teams on their schedule, including 49-0 to Steinbrenner, the team they would probably play in the opening round of the playoffs.

Looks like Sarasota Riverview will be the number 1 seed, and thus the team Plant would play if it secures the 8 seed.  Steinbrenner and Dr. Phillips appear to be neck-and-neck for the number 2 spot (and, as a result, the number 3 spot).  I guess we'll know Sunday.