Class 3A, Regional Finals!

[SPCjessica2004]

Not every team can be a state championship team, but 4 teams will earn the "State" tag. A state team is a team that makes the State-Semifinals. We watched a few live streams on Friday and have communicated with quite a few coaches around the state to come up with our picks. Here's a look at this weeks 4 regional final games:

We are looking at MaxPreps rankings and Strength of Schedule numbers:

Chaminade-Madonna(9-2) at Calvary Christian Academy(10-1)
C-M is currently ranked #1 in Class 3A at a 50.3 rating with a Strength of Schedule rating of 31.3 which is 4th.
CCA is currently ranked #9 in Class 3A at a 33.9 rating with a Strength of Schedule rating of 14.5 which is 17th.

The Lions easily dispatched Somerset Academy last week. Calvary Christian picked up a quality win over Miami Edison in a game that some (ourselves included) felt that Edison would be the favorite. Since defeating Miami Central in week 10, Chaminade has outscored both Everglades and Somerset 108-0.  Calvary Christian's biggest win this year was a 10-3 decision against Benjamin School. Chaminade has multiple high quality wins (Atlantic, Central, McArthur, Pahokee) and has played some of the states best.

The Pick:
Calvary is having a very good season, they finally broke into the top 100 in the state (96), but similar to last week Chaminade simply has better athletes. There's also a pretty significant gap in strength of schedule that's hard to ignore.

MP: Chaminade by 19
Our Pick: Chaminade by 42

Clearwater Central Catholic(9-3) at Ft. Myers Bishop Verot(9-2)
CCC is currently ranked #2 in Class 3A at a 46.7 rating with a Strength of Schedule rating of 32.5 which is 2nd.
Bishop Verot is currently ranked #4 in Class 3A at a 42.1 rating with a Strength of Schedule rating of 22.8 which is 8th.

Bishop Verot is having a spectacular season having defeated teams like Tampa Catholic, Benjamin, Barron Collier, North Ft. Myers and Lakeland Christian. The two losses were to American Heritage Delray and Uschool. CCC started 0-2 against powers Berkeley Prep and Brentwood Academy, would suffer a third defeat to Tampa Jesuit. Something happened after that loss as CCC would go on to defeat Clearwater, Uschool, Calvary Christian (Clearwater) and last week avenged the week 1 loss to Berkeley Prep 35-28 in 3OT's. 

The Pick:
Credit to CCC for making their 8th consecutive regional championship game and winning their 100th game this decade. Credit to Bishop Verot for making their 2nd consecutive regional final appearance (last year in 4A). While there are a lot of competitive games this week, this is our game of the week due to the quality opponents each team has played.

MP: CCC by 5
Our Pick: CCC by 3

Orlando First Academy(6-5) at Lakeland Christian (9-1)
First Academy is currently ranked #23 in Class 3A at a 9.8  rating with a Strength of Schedule rating of 2.3 which is 26th.
Lakeland Christian is currently ranked #12 in Class 3A at a 28.4 rating with a Strength of Schedule rating of 12 which is 19th.

Lakeland Christian is 9-1, having won 8 consecutive games. LCS's only loss came in week 2 against Bishop Verot. LCS played a highly competitive game against MCC last week winning by a TD.  First Academy was supposed to be rebuilding this year, but a late season surge got them into the playoffs and into a regional championship game.  First Academy only has 4 seniors on the roster.

The Pick:
Let's not sugar coat it, we know that neither team has the schedule of say JaxTCA or CCC/Chaminade, but both teams have winning records and have proven to be the best teams in their region. LCS has clearly played a tougher schedule, but First Academy runs the Wing-T which can really be a struggle to defend.  We like LCS in this one though.

Our Pick: LCS by 14
MP: LCS by 21

FSU-DRS(10-1) at Pensacola Catholic (11-0)
FSU is currently ranked #5 in Class 3A at a 41.6 rating with a Strength of Schedule rating of 16.9 which is 14th.
Pensacola Catholic is currently ranked #7 in Class 3A at a 39.6 rating with a Strength of Schedule rating of 19.6  which is 9th.

Pensacola Catholic is the last remaining undefeated team in 3A and has scored some good wins this year, but none better than their 2 TD win over Ocala Trinity last week. Many felt this Crusader team would be a threat in 3A Region 1 due to their strong senior class and tough to defend offense.  FSU-DRS has only lost once and that was to always powerful Madison County.  Ranking wise, these are evenly matched teams.

The Pick:
By virtue of where Pensacola Catholic is located, they have one heck of a homefield advantage. Tallahassee is a hike to Pensacola, but not the 6 hours that OTC faced last week. FSU-DRS might be ranked higher, but we'll take Pensacola Catholic at home this week.

Our Pick: Pensacola Catholic by 3
MP: FSU-DRS by 2



 

[SPCjessica2004]

As an update to the previous comment, my husband and I looked at the RPI results of 3A to determine how accurate it was from designating the top 6 seeds at the end of week 11 to who made the regional finals. Figured we would share our opinion.

Region 1 Final
FSU-DRS (2 seed) at Pensacola Catholic (1 seed)

The RPI system did a great job labeling these teams 1 and 2. There's not much to say about this particular region. 

Region 2 Final
Orlando First Academy (3 seed) at Lakeland Christian (1 seed)

RPI accurately predicted the 1 seed, LCS.  First Academy is a good 3 seed that defeated the 2 seed (Holy Trinity). Overall, because RPI accurately picked the 1 seed we are willing to give the RPI the benefit of the doubt and say it worked. A 3 seed is still a high seed.

Region 3 Final
Clearwater Central Catholic (5 seed) at Bishop Verot (2 seed)

RPI accurately labeled Bishop Verot as a 2 seed, but how is a 5 seed in the regional final? Interestingly, had Oasis Charter not forfeited 3 wins for use of an ineligible player, CCC would be the #6 seed and Benjamin would not have made the playoffs.   Making this more interesting is that Benjamin as the #6 seed defeated the #3 seed Cardinal Newman in round 1.

CCC defeated the #4 seed in the regional quarter-final and the #1 seed in the regional semi-final.

Hindsight being 20/20 it would have been a travesty if Benjamin didn't make the playoffs considering they went on to defeat a 3 seed. Ultimately, the RPI got this correct but it required unforeseen circumstances to put the correct teams in the playoffs. This region likely needs to be looked at to see exactly what happened here.

Region 4 Final
Chaminade-Madonna (#2 seed) at Calvary Christian Academy (1 seed)

RPI nailed this one, not much to say.

In conclusion, we are fans of the RPI system at least in 3A. It accurately predicted 6 out of 8 #1 or #2 seeds. Class 3A-Region 3 will likely be a case study by people looking at individual regions that the RPI messed up on.  The tweak would likely need to be to the OOWP since we believe it's a good metric, but to much value is given to it compared to the first two values (WP and OWP).




 

[Jambun82]

SpcJessica2004, I heard a rumor that it is in your marriage contract with your husband, that if either one of you discusses any other classification other than 3A, that the other spouse automatically gets all of the martial assets. Is the true? Thank you lol.

[SPCjessica2004]

12 hours ago, Jambun82 said:

SpcJessica2004, I heard a rumor that it is in your marriage contract with your husband, that if either one of you discusses any other classification other than 3A, that the other spouse automatically gets all of the martial assets. Is the true? Thank you lol.

We have become fond of Orlando area football. One of our neighbors is a huge Apopka fan that has slowly rubbed off on us. Our youngest is signing up to play football for the first time for the Jr. Lion mighty-mites in Lake Nona next season. 



 

[Jambun82]

14 hours ago, SPCjessica2004 said:

We have become fond of Orlando area football. One of our neighbors is a huge Apopka fan that has slowly rubbed off on us. Our youngest is signing up to play football for the first time for the Jr. Lion mighty-mites in Lake Nona next season.

 

SPCjessica2004, I wish your son all the best in his football career and beyond. Also, thank you for your very thorough analysis of 3A high school football. I always look forward to what you have to say, and you are my idea of a lady.