Lakeland @ Armwood

[181pl]

Thoughts from the folks?

[181pl]

I'm going to read up on the health of these teams as the week goes and cast a vote on Thursday. Fully healthy I'm leaning towards L, but we'll see.

[fishspinners]

It's a coin flip for me. Slight lean Armwood because of homefield. Hopefully Lakeland is healthy or at least close to it. I've been anticipating this matchup all season long. 

[badbird]

Lakeland by double digits if healthy

[skyway]

I'd prefer not to cast  a vote. Partially because I'm leaning towards thinking Armwood will take them. If I knew Lampkin and Glinton were going to play and be in the ballpark of 100%, it would make me feel more confident. But, my hunch is they won't play at all.

Regardless, this is a game where mistakes and big plays will make all the difference. Both teams are VERY capable of scoring with both their defense and special teams. It could get a bit lopsided if one of the teams gets a strip score, pick-6, punt block, kick return etc.

[fishspinners]

8 hours ago, badbird said:

Lakeland by double digits if healthy

That's bold

[Legion37]

Look forward to see this one in person.

Look forward to this game.

 

[skyway]

15 minutes ago, fishspinners said:

That's bold

If Lakeland's D can shut down Armwood's offense-like, say, Gaither did- they may be able to create short fields. Mix in some punt or kick return big plays and that's how Lakeland can win by a couple scores. But, the inverse may happen as well.

[MNWB]

Armwood better take advantage of this they no longer have to worry about the Miami teams. They've been crying about facing the Miami teams so I don't want to hear it. I wish Armwood win but Lakeland will end they season.

[Legion37]

Despite the concerns over two Lakeland players, Lakeland's offense was just fine last week, but 166 Yards of penalties did not help. Including 6 personal fouls. Lakeland was sloppy and listless on offense. Just like last years Kathleen playoff game in the cold. 

The defense got gashed by a well balanced team and the Tech running back. It was this side of the ball that really struggled this week. 

Again look forward to this game. 

[fishspinners]

10 hours ago, skyway said:

If Lakeland's D can shut down Armwood's offense-like, say, Gaither did- they may be able to create short fields. Mix in some punt or kick return big plays and that's how Lakeland can win by a couple scores. But, the inverse may happen as well.

No, I get what you're saying. I won't be shocked if Lakeland does win by double digits. I wouldn't bet on it but I won't be shocked either.

[Perspective]

Here, I'll sum up the debate for everyone:  Lakeland may win or Armwood may win.   You can thank me later. 

[Vaquero]

15 hours ago, skyway said:

If Lakeland's D can shut down Armwood's offense-like, say, Gaither did- they may be able to create short fields. Mix in some punt or kick return big plays and that's how Lakeland can win by a couple scores. But, the inverse may happen as well.

Gaither vs Armwood highlights 

https://youtu.be/6gZ790yMM-M

 

[Perspective]

Test (going to be out of town through the weekend and just want to make sure I’ll be able to get my picks in).  

[Cat_Scratch]

12 hours ago, Perspective said:

Here, I'll sum up the debate for everyone:  Lakeland may Lose or Armwood may Win.   You can thank me later. 

FIFY

[skyway]

22 minutes ago, Cat_Scratch said:

FIFY

Care to offer any analysis as to why?

[TL85]

Any new updates on  injuries from both teams?

[181pl]

Checked Ledger and Times. Didn't see anything on injuries.

[skyway]

10 hours ago, 181pl said:

Checked Ledger and Times. Didn't see anything on injuries.

Bowman and maybe the QB would be the only names that might get mentioned in an injury report. IMO, it doesn't bode well for them given the silence.

[skyway]

My thoughts on Lakeland @Armwood:

I really am trying to give as objective a take here as possible. I type this assuming the best OL (Lampkin) and best DL (Glinton) are out for Lakeland.

Lakeland Offense:

Lakeland has always had a more "multiple", sophisticated running game than most H.S. teams. This has become more pronounced as originality in offensive football is now largely out the window. Yes, in a way, Lakeland is simple in what they do. But, the formations, blocking schemes and personnel groupings will not be like what most other H.S teams have seen. This is obviously an advantage against teams whose players and coaches are not particularly familiar with them (longtime observers of the program will know and recognize most everything they see, however).  Add in what may well be the best running back in the country in Demarkcus Bowman, and the 'Naughts have a chance to put up points on anyone.  The other two running backs (JaKari Martin and Reggie Kellum) would start for several hundred other high school teams and figure to get 10-12 carries as well. The passing game, featuring 3* QB and Auburn commit Chayil Garnett and 4* WR Arian Smith (possibly the fastest HS football player in the country)...has been a rather huge disappointment. Smith looks to me to have very high "bust" potential. He's demonstrated iffy hands and seems hesitant to go grab the ball when it's up in the air. Watching him run is a thing of beauty. But, there are times I swear the thought running through his mind as the ball is in the air is something like "I have an amazing track future!". The other WR has not impressed, either. The younger WRs in the program show more promise to me. So, they appear to need to continue to run the heck out of the ball. With Willie Lampkin, I think they're good enough to do this on anyone. Without him, elite DLs like Armwood and STA figure to be too stout to run at will on.

Lakeland Defense:

There was (and still is) reason to believe this defense is as good or better than any that they've had when at full strength. The DL of DE/DT Gabe Dindy (6'3" 260), soph. with many major offers already; DE Cleo Anglin (6'3", 235) some FCS offers despite being an unknown at a bad program last year; DT Dadrion James (6'0", 320), started at Kathleen last year and DE/DT Ryshawn Glinton (6'2" 270) considered a MEAC type player. Willie Lampkin sees spot duty here as well. This unit has the size and athleticism to dominate most OLs and hang in there with the STA offensive line (I think). The back seven uses six defensive backs at most all times. Two of those DBs were known as physical, hard hitting safeties last year and have been trained to play-and labeled-as linebackers. So, they still call themselves a 4-3 defense. The secondary has 4* CB Kendall Dennis, who was in Texas at The Opening; Dook Graham, a Florida commit who was a star on last year's team as well; Zay Roberson, who was thought to be a high level recruit before off the field problems caused him to miss all of last season; and a rotation of other good players, including a couple of taller, physical CBs. 

Lakeland Special Teams:

Lethal returners (Graham, Dennis, Smith) capable of taking any kick against any team to the house. Generally good coverage units with all of the athletes they have. Average punter (QB Garnett) and probably a mediocre kicker but, by the low HS standards, kind of average. Poor snaps and/or holds have meant the field goal and EP tries have been an adventure.

Armwood Offense:

Spread attack with excellent skill position players, namely 2021 5* WR Agiye Hall. The offense does have a record of questionable to poor performances in big games the last couple of years. Way too much talent on the field for them to count on them not scoring much, however.

Armwood Defense:

Probably the best, most imposing pair of defensive tackles in the country. Both are over 300 lbs and rated 4* by Rivals.  Many who've seen them are convinced both will be playing on Sundays. And the secondary is also elite with major prospects and many picks. Very fast defense. Seven (7) shutouts on the year. NOBODY has had any sort of running game against them. A review of North Gwinnet's QB highlights from the game shows a QB under heavy pressure making throws into very tight windows. The team that did the best against them (17 points in regulation; a 2OT win at home) appeared to labor tremendously to get what they got. Armwood outgained NG 271-205 for the game.

Prediction:

This may be the hardest game to read (objectively, anyway) for Lakeland that I can recall in many years. I've expected Lakeland's D to largely be able to control Armwood's offense. But, last week's game (indeed largely impacted by numerous 15 yard penalties, a style of offense/personnel that's a bad match up, and no Ryshawn Glinton or Lampkin) raises questions for Lakeland. On offense, Bill Castle can dial up some ball plays. And he's got the best RB he's ever had to ride. But, Armwood's D is built to stop the run. And they have a very highly regarded D-coordinator. Without Willie Lampkin, I don't see Lakeland being able to win the LOS to enough of a degree to get the job done. In the kicking game, the lack of a reliable field-goal kicking unit also may hurt Lakeland against a defense that prides itself on keeping teams out of the end zone.

The formula for Lakeland to win involves the defense creating scores and/or short fields off turnovers and the kicking game generating big returns. The formula for Armwood to win involves much of the same. Armwood is at home. They don't usually have much of a home-field advantage. But, for the biggest game they've hosted in ~15 years, they will have a boisterous crowd.

Lakeland will find themselves inside the Armwood 20 several times, but will be turned away on many of them without a sufficient kicking game against a stout defense. Armwood will get one big play TD, one short field TD, and a FG. Lakeland will get  a TD with a botched EP and a TD late while trailing 17-6 to close to 17-12. Armwood wins 17-12.  

[181pl]

Great breakdown

[gwdrum75]

6 hours ago, skyway said:

My thoughts on Lakeland @Armwood:

I really am trying to give as objective a take here as possible. I type this assuming the best OL (Lampkin) and best DL (Glinton) are out for Lakeland.

One will be back. One is questionable.

6 hours ago, skyway said:

Armwood Offense:

Spread attack with excellent skill position players, namely 2021 5* WR Agiye Hall. The offense does have a record of questionable to poor performances in big games the last couple of years. Way too much talent on the field for them to count on them not scoring much, however.

Armwood's offense managed 14 points against Bloomingdale, off of 4 interceptions (The 5th INT was a pick-6) and multiple possessions on Bloomingdale's side of the field. They ran for 57 yards total for the game. Their two offensive touchdowns were on longer pass plays.

6 hours ago, skyway said:

Prediction:

This may be the hardest game to read (objectively, anyway) for Lakeland that I can recall in many years. I've expected Lakeland's D to largely be able to control Armwood's offense. But, last week's game (indeed largely impacted by numerous 15 yard penalties, a style of offense/personnel that's a bad match up, and no Ryshawn Glinton or Lampkin) raises questions for Lakeland. On offense, Bill Castle can dial up some ball plays. And he's got the best RB he's ever had to ride. But, Armwood's D is built to stop the run. And they have a very highly regarded D-coordinator. Without Willie Lampkin, I don't see Lakeland being able to win the LOS to enough of a degree to get the job done. In the kicking game, the lack of a reliable field-goal kicking unit also may hurt Lakeland against a defense that prides itself on keeping teams out of the end zone.

The formula for Lakeland to win involves the defense creating scores and/or short fields off turnovers and the kicking game generating big returns. The formula for Armwood to win involves much of the same. Armwood is at home. They don't usually have much of a home-field advantage. But, for the biggest game they've hosted in ~15 years, they will have a boisterous crowd.

Lakeland will find themselves inside the Armwood 20 several times, but will be turned away on many of them without a sufficient kicking game against a stout defense. Armwood will get one big play TD, one short field TD, and a FG. Lakeland will get  a TD with a botched EP and a TD late while trailing 17-6 to close to 17-12. Armwood wins 17-12.  

It's going to come down to discipline. If Lakeland gets 166 yards in penalties again, they will lose. If they can play a clean game......we'll see. 

Don't look for Lakeland to throw the ball much, and especially give the ball to Armwood 5 times off of INTs. The best way for Lakeland to stretch Armwood's defense out is getting Arian Smith outside. If that can open up the slightest hole for Bowman, he'll have a good night.

As far as home field advantage....something tells me that a good chunk of the crowd there will have little to no rooting interest for either team. They are just there to watch the game. Armwood limited tickets to 2500 total for the game. But with the limited stands they have there, it should be standing room only.

[Legion37]

I would think Lakeland will score more than 12 points, way more...can Armwood keep pace is the question. 

Even undisciplined Lakeland will score. Disciplined they will score more.

[gwdrum75]

Just to add.....

As of this afternoon, Lakeland sold out of their allotment of tickets. So, the only way to get tickets now is at Armwood, or through GoFan with the "super secret" promo code: ArmwoodPlayoff

Armwood has stated that no tickets will be sold at the gate. 

[skyway]

12 hours ago, gwdrum75 said:

One will be back. One is questionable.

Armwood's offense managed 14 points against Bloomingdale, off of 4 interceptions (The 5th INT was a pick-6) and multiple possessions on Bloomingdale's side of the field. They ran for 57 yards total for the game. Their two offensive touchdowns were on longer pass plays.

It's going to come down to discipline. If Lakeland gets 166 yards in penalties again, they will lose. If they can play a clean game......we'll see. 

Don't look for Lakeland to throw the ball much, and especially give the ball to Armwood 5 times off of INTs. The best way for Lakeland to stretch Armwood's defense out is getting Arian Smith outside. If that can open up the slightest hole for Bowman, he'll have a good night.

As far as home field advantage....something tells me that a good chunk of the crowd there will have little to no rooting interest for either team. They are just there to watch the game. Armwood limited tickets to 2500 total for the game. But with the limited stands they have there, it should be standing room only.

Thanks for the feedback. All of the other indications are that the one likely to be back is OL Lampkin, who is probably a bit more important for facing Armwood.

Lakeland figures to make its money on offense through some combination of spreading the field and running zone read and the flexbone crossbuck stuff. And the ultra heavy power sets may get a little done for them as well. The more traditional I formation stuff figures to be very difficult. The off-tackle, stretch play might work, but without the fb dive, Iso etc working, Armwood will likely be ready to key on that and take it away, too.