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Exploring Games Score Margins


LAZ

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I've been diving into this topic in attempt to correlate if we have an excess of "game mismatches" created by having too many classifications. I have come up with the data and my own thoughts and I'm interested in hearing from others regarding this topic. Here's what I've looked at:

In 2019, Florida high schools played 2636 regular season games amongst one another. The final scoring margins in those games average 23.6 with a median of 21. The questions are:                                  "What is the norm?" From a fan's perspective, do we want to attend games knowing in advance that one team is 3 touchdowns better than their opponent?  Digging deeper, I looked at the distribution and found that even though our Florida Game Average Margin and Median number is somewhere between 21-23 points, only 6% of the games fell into this range! Then using this knowledge, I came up with a chart showing Florida Game Competitiveness. As a result, I determined that from my perspective as a fan, there are probably less than 30% of the games that I would really be interested in watching from the standpoint of competitiveness. I expect differences of opinion but I can also tell you, I did the same thing using all levels of college football and the average margins are 4 points closer which is a considerable amount.  

 
Margin My Perspective Games Pct
1-7 pts Great Game 527 20%
8-13 pts Good Game 324 12%
14-20 pts Somewhat 378 14%
21-23 pts Blah - Fla Avg. 171 6%
24 -31 pts Ugly 383 15%
32 - 45 pts Very Bad 617 23%
46+ pts Puke 236 9%
       
  BREAKDOWN    
       
          Margin         # Games Frequency Cumulative
1 84 0.03187 0.03187
2 43 0.01631 0.04818
3 84 0.03187 0.08005
4 58 0.02200 0.10205
5 47 0.01783 0.11988
6 82 0.03111 0.15099
7 129 0.04894 0.19992
8 77 0.02921 0.22914
9 25 0.00948 0.23862
10 67 0.02542 0.26404
11 45 0.01707 0.28111
12 54 0.02049 0.30159
13 56 0.02124 0.32284
14 90 0.03414 0.35698
15 53 0.02011 0.37709
16 39 0.01480 0.39188
17 40 0.01517 0.40706
18 51 0.01935 0.42640
19 34 0.01290 0.43930
20 71 0.02693 0.46624
21 91 0.03452 0.50076
22 42 0.01593 0.51669
23 38 0.01442 0.53111
24 48 0.01821 0.54932
25 41 0.01555 0.56487
26 43 0.01631 0.58118
27 50 0.01897 0.60015
28 77 0.02921 0.62936
29 46 0.01745 0.64681
30 43 0.01631 0.66313
31 35 0.01328 0.67640
32 39 0.01480 0.69120
33 33 0.01252 0.70372
34 39 0.01480 0.71851
35 105 0.03983 0.75835
36 61 0.02314 0.78149
37 42 0.01593 0.79742
38 43 0.01631 0.81373
39 29 0.01100 0.82473
40 40 0.01517 0.83991
41 56 0.02124 0.86115
42 60 0.02276 0.88392
43 30 0.01138 0.89530
44 21 0.00797 0.90326
45 19 0.00721 0.91047
46 20 0.00759 0.91806
47 18 0.00683 0.92489
48 23 0.00873 0.93361
49 29 0.01100 0.94461
50 18 0.00683 0.95144
51 10 0.00379 0.95524
52 12 0.00455 0.95979
53 10 0.00379 0.96358
54 8 0.00303 0.96662
55 13 0.00493 0.97155
56 16 0.00607 0.97762
57 8 0.00303 0.98065
58 12 0.00455 0.98520
59 3 0.00114 0.98634
60 3 0.00114 0.98748
61 3 0.00114 0.98862
62 8 0.00303 0.99165
63 5 0.00190 0.99355
64 2 0.00076 0.99431
65 1 0.00038 0.99469
66 1 0.00038 0.99507
67 2 0.00076 0.99583
68 1 0.00038 0.99621
69 1 0.00038 0.99659
70 0 0.00000 0.99659
71 1 0.00038 0.99697
72 2 0.00076 0.99772
73 1 0.00038 0.99810
74 1 0.00038 0.99848
75 1 0.00038 0.99886
76 0 0.00000 0.99886
77 1 0.00038 0.99924
78 0 0.00000 0.99924
79 0 0.00000 0.99924
80 0 0.00000 0.99924
81 0 0.00000 0.99924
82 0 0.00000 0.99924
83 0 0.00000 0.99924
84 1 0.00038 0.99962
85 0 0.00000 0.99962
86 0 0.00000 0.99962
87 0 0.00000 0.99962
88 1 0.00038 1.00000
   
 
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
   
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
  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  • 11 months later...

As I tried to explain a year ago, over the past 20 seasons our games are getting less competitive and less interesting. I've gone back and looked at the 53,000 + games played from 2001 to our current point in 2020. Should something be done? Our games on average are simply not very attractive unless you have a family friend or relative participating. 

Point Differential.png

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30 minutes ago, LAZ said:

As I tried to explain a year ago, over the past 20 seasons our games are getting less competitive and less interesting. I've gone back and looked at the 53,000 + games played from 2001 to our current point in 2020. Should something be done? Our games on average are simply not very attractive unless you have a family friend or relative participating. 

Point Differential.png

That's part of the reason why i stopped caring so much about FLHSFB. When games are lopsided that much. It makes you wonder what's the point of adding more classes ?. [Pointing to FHSAA].

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12 minutes ago, SubZero said:

That's part of the reason why i stopped caring so much about FLHSFB. When games are lopsided that much. It makes you wonder what's the point of adding more classes ?. [Pointing to FHSAA].

Well every sport but football dropped 2 classes last year and I've heard rumors football could drop a class over next few years (I'm guessing they want 7 classes for every sport)

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I completely agree and thanks for reminding us, LAZ.  The thread below supports your assertion.  I believe we have a few things at play, including...

  • the transfer/superteam phenomenon
  • incorporation of the spread offense and potential for more plays being run and higher scores
  • evolving demographics, ie predominantly Hispanic schools in Miami-Dade where football is not as popular
  • a substantial number of new schools coming on line over the past 25 years and placed into larger classifications where they are often not competitive 

 

 

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32 minutes ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

Well every sport but football dropped 2 classes last year and I've heard rumors football could drop a class over next few years (I'm guessing they want 7 classes for every sport)

Cool stuff, anyway I'm pulling for Columbia and that will get rid of 1a sorry schools. Please go watch the games in Tallahassee.  I'm trying to go to at least 6 games.

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As a fan of the game, I would be more than happy to attend any game where the final differential is 17 points or less. Thus, from LAZ's analysis somewhere in the region of 35% of the games would be attractive candidates to me. Why? Many 14 point or less games are actually very competitive as the final score creating the more than one touchdown margin often comes in the final five minutes of the game. And, even a 17 point margin game can be quite entertaining, if the overall quality of the teams is good to very good. 

What bothers me the most is the fact, than over 20% of the games are decided by margins of 37 points or more. To me that is unacceptable, as 35 points represent a running clock in Florida high school football, implying that the true differential between teams in the final 20% of games is probably much more than 37 points if the running clock were eliminated.

This begs the question: why aren't the powers that be doing something to address this? Too many classes; the proliferation of recruiting, aided and abetted by changes in the rules for attending a given school; the explosion of new schools competing in the higher classes; the lack of a promotion and relegation system, have all been cited as contributing to the number of these blowout games which serve no purpose and in fact can be outright dangerous to the participants of the cellar dweller schools. 

For the health of the sport, something needs to be done sooner (not later) in order to preserve interest in the sport. Failure to do so will result in more and more large class school following the lead of several Miami Dade schools in abandoning the playoffs once and for all in favor of setting up their own conferences. 

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1 hour ago, DarterBlue2 said:

As a fan of the game, I would be more than happy to attend any game where the final differential is 17 points or less. Thus, from LAZ's analysis somewhere in the region of 35% of the games would be attractive candidates to me. Why? Many 14 point or less games are actually very competitive as the final score creating the more than one touchdown margin often comes in the final five minutes of the game. And, even a 17 point margin game can be quite entertaining, if the overall quality of the teams is good to very good. 

What bothers me the most is the fact, than over 20% of the games are decided by margins of 37 points or more. To me that is unacceptable, as 35 points represent a running clock in Florida high school football, implying that the true differential between teams in the final 20% of games is probably much more than 37 points if the running clock were eliminated.

This begs the question: why aren't the powers that be doing something to address this? Too many classes; the proliferation of recruiting, aided and abetted by changes in the rules for attending a given school; the explosion of new schools competing in the higher classes; the lack of a promotion and relegation system, have all been cited as contributing to the number of these blowout games which serve no purpose and in fact can be outright dangerous to the participants of the cellar dweller schools. 

For the health of the sport, something needs to be done sooner (not later) in order to preserve interest in the sport. Failure to do so will result in more and more large class school following the lead of several Miami Dade schools in abandoning the playoffs once and for all in favor of setting up their own conferences. 

Possibly some of the "answers" can be found in a hs ESPN broadcast.  A number of ESPN games we have watched over the years were not competitive.  It's as if the game was an afterthought.  The main attraction was the individual athletes and what college they were going to. 

On those broadcasts, there is often little discussion about the history of the schools and the teams' histories.  "They" have found a way to market hs football, and that marketing strategy is not dependent upon having depth of team talent like in the NFL.  HSFB's brand is superteams and 5-star players.

As much as we beat our chest about FL hs football, the reality is that there are a ton of mediocre-to-poor hs football teams in the state.  It's our dirty little secret.  FL has built its national reputation on the backs of a relative few programs.  

 

 

 

 

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13 minutes ago, OldSchoolLion said:

Possibly some of the "answers" can be found in a hs ESPN broadcast.  A number of ESPN games we have watched over the years were not competitive.  It's as if the game was an afterthought.  The main attraction was the individual athletes and what college they were going to. 

On those broadcasts, there is often little discussion about the history of the schools and the teams' histories.  "They" have found a way to market hs football, and that marketing strategy is not dependent upon having depth of team talent like in the NFL.  HSFB's brand is superteams and 5-star players.

As much as we beat our chest about FL hs football, the reality is that there are a ton of mediocre-to-poor hs football teams in the state.  It's our dirty little secret.  FL has built its national reputation on the backs of a relative few programs.  

 

 

 

 

For ESPN, featuring the teams with the multiple star players works. But for a "true" diehard fan of Florida high school football such as myself, it is not good. I use to go to 90% of Apopka's games fifteen years ago, but now, probably just a little over 50%, choosing instead to attend a more competitive game on the other occasions rather than see Apopka put a 40+ point beatdown on a school such as Cypress Creek, etc. Now because I like the game so much, and because the Orlando Metro area is large affording me many choices, it does not hurt aggregate gate attendance. But supposed I lived in a small country town, I would likely reduce my attendance by 40% or more due to not wanting to watch facile blowouts whether it was the team I root for doing the beating or receiving the beating. So, from an attendance standpoint, the gate received by the individual schools in aggregate is probably reduced due to the lack of sufficient competitive games. And, you only need watch an IMG game from afar (via video, I would not waste my time going there) to witness the sterile nature of their home games. No large crowd, no big bands, no cheering, no atmosphere at all ... is this what we really want? Is this superior?

I would argue it is inferior. 

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