Exploring Games Score Margins

[LAZ]

I've been diving into this topic in attempt to correlate if we have an excess of "game mismatches" created by having too many classifications. I have come up with the data and my own thoughts and I'm interested in hearing from others regarding this topic. Here's what I've looked at:

In 2019, Florida high schools played 2636 regular season games amongst one another. The final scoring margins in those games average 23.6 with a median of 21. The questions are:                                  "What is the norm?" From a fan's perspective, do we want to attend games knowing in advance that one team is 3 touchdowns better than their opponent?  Digging deeper, I looked at the distribution and found that even though our Florida Game Average Margin and Median number is somewhere between 21-23 points, only 6% of the games fell into this range! Then using this knowledge, I came up with a chart showing Florida Game Competitiveness. As a result, I determined that from my perspective as a fan, there are probably less than 30% of the games that I would really be interested in watching from the standpoint of competitiveness. I expect differences of opinion but I can also tell you, I did the same thing using all levels of college football and the average margins are 4 points closer which is a considerable amount.  

Margin My Perspective Games Pct 1-7 pts Great Game 527 20% 8-13 pts Good Game 324 12% 14-20 pts Somewhat 378 14% 21-23 pts Blah - Fla Avg. 171 6% 24 -31 pts Ugly 383 15% 32 - 45 pts Very Bad 617 23% 46+ pts Puke 236 9%           BREAKDOWN                       Margin         # Games Frequency Cumulative 1 84 0.03187 0.03187 2 43 0.01631 0.04818 3 84 0.03187 0.08005 4 58 0.02200 0.10205 5 47 0.01783 0.11988 6 82 0.03111 0.15099 7 129 0.04894 0.19992 8 77 0.02921 0.22914 9 25 0.00948 0.23862 10 67 0.02542 0.26404 11 45 0.01707 0.28111 12 54 0.02049 0.30159 13 56 0.02124 0.32284 14 90 0.03414 0.35698 15 53 0.02011 0.37709 16 39 0.01480 0.39188 17 40 0.01517 0.40706 18 51 0.01935 0.42640 19 34 0.01290 0.43930 20 71 0.02693 0.46624 21 91 0.03452 0.50076 22 42 0.01593 0.51669 23 38 0.01442 0.53111 24 48 0.01821 0.54932 25 41 0.01555 0.56487 26 43 0.01631 0.58118 27 50 0.01897 0.60015 28 77 0.02921 0.62936 29 46 0.01745 0.64681 30 43 0.01631 0.66313 31 35 0.01328 0.67640 32 39 0.01480 0.69120 33 33 0.01252 0.70372 34 39 0.01480 0.71851 35 105 0.03983 0.75835 36 61 0.02314 0.78149 37 42 0.01593 0.79742 38 43 0.01631 0.81373 39 29 0.01100 0.82473 40 40 0.01517 0.83991 41 56 0.02124 0.86115 42 60 0.02276 0.88392 43 30 0.01138 0.89530 44 21 0.00797 0.90326 45 19 0.00721 0.91047 46 20 0.00759 0.91806 47 18 0.00683 0.92489 48 23 0.00873 0.93361 49 29 0.01100 0.94461 50 18 0.00683 0.95144 51 10 0.00379 0.95524 52 12 0.00455 0.95979 53 10 0.00379 0.96358 54 8 0.00303 0.96662 55 13 0.00493 0.97155 56 16 0.00607 0.97762 57 8 0.00303 0.98065 58 12 0.00455 0.98520 59 3 0.00114 0.98634 60 3 0.00114 0.98748 61 3 0.00114 0.98862 62 8 0.00303 0.99165 63 5 0.00190 0.99355 64 2 0.00076 0.99431 65 1 0.00038 0.99469 66 1 0.00038 0.99507 67 2 0.00076 0.99583 68 1 0.00038 0.99621 69 1 0.00038 0.99659 70 0 0.00000 0.99659 71 1 0.00038 0.99697 72 2 0.00076 0.99772 73 1 0.00038 0.99810 74 1 0.00038 0.99848 75 1 0.00038 0.99886 76 0 0.00000 0.99886 77 1 0.00038 0.99924 78 0 0.00000 0.99924 79 0 0.00000 0.99924 80 0 0.00000 0.99924 81 0 0.00000 0.99924 82 0 0.00000 0.99924 83 0 0.00000 0.99924 84 1 0.00038 0.99962 85 0 0.00000 0.99962 86 0 0.00000 0.99962 87 0 0.00000 0.99962 88 1 0.00038 1.00000

 

 

 

[LAZ]

As I tried to explain a year ago, over the past 20 seasons our games are getting less competitive and less interesting. I've gone back and looked at the 53,000 + games played from 2001 to our current point in 2020. Should something be done? Our games on average are simply not very attractive unless you have a family friend or relative participating. 

[Perspective]

That's what happens when you change the laws such that week in and week out the Haves play the Have Nots. 

[SubZero]

30 minutes ago, LAZ said:

As I tried to explain a year ago, over the past 20 seasons our games are getting less competitive and less interesting. I've gone back and looked at the 53,000 + games played from 2001 to our current point in 2020. Should something be done? Our games on average are simply not very attractive unless you have a family friend or relative participating. 

That's part of the reason why i stopped caring so much about FLHSFB. When games are lopsided that much. It makes you wonder what's the point of adding more classes ?. [Pointing to FHSAA].

[DisabledAccount]

12 minutes ago, SubZero said:

That's part of the reason why i stopped caring so much about FLHSFB. When games are lopsided that much. It makes you wonder what's the point of adding more classes ?. [Pointing to FHSAA].

Well every sport but football dropped 2 classes last year and I've heard rumors football could drop a class over next few years (I'm guessing they want 7 classes for every sport)

[OldSchoolLion]

I completely agree and thanks for reminding us, LAZ.  The thread below supports your assertion.  I believe we have a few things at play, including...

• the transfer/superteam phenomenon
• incorporation of the spread offense and potential for more plays being run and higher scores
• evolving demographics, ie predominantly Hispanic schools in Miami-Dade where football is not as popular
• a substantial number of new schools coming on line over the past 25 years and placed into larger classifications where they are often not competitive 

 

 

[Jesse]

32 minutes ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

Well every sport but football dropped 2 classes last year and I've heard rumors football could drop a class over next few years (I'm guessing they want 7 classes for every sport)

Cool stuff, anyway I'm pulling for Columbia and that will get rid of 1a sorry schools. Please go watch the games in Tallahassee.  I'm trying to go to at least 6 games.

[DarterBlue2]

As a fan of the game, I would be more than happy to attend any game where the final differential is 17 points or less. Thus, from LAZ's analysis somewhere in the region of 35% of the games would be attractive candidates to me. Why? Many 14 point or less games are actually very competitive as the final score creating the more than one touchdown margin often comes in the final five minutes of the game. And, even a 17 point margin game can be quite entertaining, if the overall quality of the teams is good to very good. 

What bothers me the most is the fact, than over 20% of the games are decided by margins of 37 points or more. To me that is unacceptable, as 35 points represent a running clock in Florida high school football, implying that the true differential between teams in the final 20% of games is probably much more than 37 points if the running clock were eliminated.

This begs the question: why aren't the powers that be doing something to address this? Too many classes; the proliferation of recruiting, aided and abetted by changes in the rules for attending a given school; the explosion of new schools competing in the higher classes; the lack of a promotion and relegation system, have all been cited as contributing to the number of these blowout games which serve no purpose and in fact can be outright dangerous to the participants of the cellar dweller schools. 

For the health of the sport, something needs to be done sooner (not later) in order to preserve interest in the sport. Failure to do so will result in more and more large class school following the lead of several Miami Dade schools in abandoning the playoffs once and for all in favor of setting up their own conferences. 

[OldSchoolLion]

1 hour ago, DarterBlue2 said:

As a fan of the game, I would be more than happy to attend any game where the final differential is 17 points or less. Thus, from LAZ's analysis somewhere in the region of 35% of the games would be attractive candidates to me. Why? Many 14 point or less games are actually very competitive as the final score creating the more than one touchdown margin often comes in the final five minutes of the game. And, even a 17 point margin game can be quite entertaining, if the overall quality of the teams is good to very good. 

What bothers me the most is the fact, than over 20% of the games are decided by margins of 37 points or more. To me that is unacceptable, as 35 points represent a running clock in Florida high school football, implying that the true differential between teams in the final 20% of games is probably much more than 37 points if the running clock were eliminated.

This begs the question: why aren't the powers that be doing something to address this? Too many classes; the proliferation of recruiting, aided and abetted by changes in the rules for attending a given school; the explosion of new schools competing in the higher classes; the lack of a promotion and relegation system, have all been cited as contributing to the number of these blowout games which serve no purpose and in fact can be outright dangerous to the participants of the cellar dweller schools. 

For the health of the sport, something needs to be done sooner (not later) in order to preserve interest in the sport. Failure to do so will result in more and more large class school following the lead of several Miami Dade schools in abandoning the playoffs once and for all in favor of setting up their own conferences. 

Possibly some of the "answers" can be found in a hs ESPN broadcast.  A number of ESPN games we have watched over the years were not competitive.  It's as if the game was an afterthought.  The main attraction was the individual athletes and what college they were going to. 

On those broadcasts, there is often little discussion about the history of the schools and the teams' histories.  "They" have found a way to market hs football, and that marketing strategy is not dependent upon having depth of team talent like in the NFL.  HSFB's brand is superteams and 5-star players.

As much as we beat our chest about FL hs football, the reality is that there are a ton of mediocre-to-poor hs football teams in the state.  It's our dirty little secret.  FL has built its national reputation on the backs of a relative few programs.  

 

 

 

 

[DarterBlue2]

13 minutes ago, OldSchoolLion said:

Possibly some of the "answers" can be found in a hs ESPN broadcast.  A number of ESPN games we have watched over the years were not competitive.  It's as if the game was an afterthought.  The main attraction was the individual athletes and what college they were going to. 

On those broadcasts, there is often little discussion about the history of the schools and the teams' histories.  "They" have found a way to market hs football, and that marketing strategy is not dependent upon having depth of team talent like in the NFL.  HSFB's brand is superteams and 5-star players.

As much as we beat our chest about FL hs football, the reality is that there are a ton of mediocre-to-poor hs football teams in the state.  It's our dirty little secret.  FL has built its national reputation on the backs of a relative few programs.  

 

 

 

 

For ESPN, featuring the teams with the multiple star players works. But for a "true" diehard fan of Florida high school football such as myself, it is not good. I use to go to 90% of Apopka's games fifteen years ago, but now, probably just a little over 50%, choosing instead to attend a more competitive game on the other occasions rather than see Apopka put a 40+ point beatdown on a school such as Cypress Creek, etc. Now because I like the game so much, and because the Orlando Metro area is large affording me many choices, it does not hurt aggregate gate attendance. But supposed I lived in a small country town, I would likely reduce my attendance by 40% or more due to not wanting to watch facile blowouts whether it was the team I root for doing the beating or receiving the beating. So, from an attendance standpoint, the gate received by the individual schools in aggregate is probably reduced due to the lack of sufficient competitive games. And, you only need watch an IMG game from afar (via video, I would not waste my time going there) to witness the sterile nature of their home games. No large crowd, no big bands, no cheering, no atmosphere at all ... is this what we really want? Is this superior?

I would argue it is inferior.