The two most competitive classes - IMHO

[DarterBlue2]

For what it's worth, I take a look below on the two classes I consider most competitive at this stage of the playoffs:

Class 8A: The four teams left are: Apopka, Osceola, Palmetto and Seminole. Due to Broward and Palm Beach county schools not being able to participate and only one significant Dade County school choosing to participate, the Orlando area has benefitted greatly this year and will, by default, have at least one team in the finals. 

Seminole at Apopka: This game will be the last opportunity for Touchdown Timmy to beat the Darters. He played youth football with many of the kids on this Apopka team and I am sure he would like to have the upper hand this time. He led Seminole teams that lost to Apopka in the playoffs during his freshman and junior years at Seminole. As of this minute, I favor Seminole to win and Timmy to get a measure of revenge. The Seminole team is as physical and athletic as Apopka and is more balanced. For Apopka to win, it will either have to replicate last year's regional finals performance when it was the defense and special teams that put the offense in a good position to score, or APK's coaching staff will have to pull another rabbit out of the hat similar to what it was able to do against Winter Park. Despite the Seminole offense being likely the best Apopka has faced this year, I don't think it will score more than 17 points. However, if the Apopka team that played West Orange and Lake Mary shows up, the 17 points will be enough and Seminole will move on to the finals. I am rooting for Apopka, but believe Seminole will likely win this game in a fairly tight match.

Osceola at Miami Palmetto: I believe most will expect Palmetto to win this game. However, I believe Osceola has a legitimate shot at this game. The biggest blotch on Osceola's record is its loss to Vero Beach. It is not losing to VB, there is no shame in that, as VB is a very good team. No, it was the margin of victory. At the half, VB led Osceola 13-7 in what had been a very tight game to that point. In the second half, Osceola fell apart. Having watched the video of this game carefully, I believe that the biggest factor in this game was the fact Osceola's QB was likely injured in the second half. Why do I think this? On its first possession to begin the second half, Osceola used the backup QB. No disrespect to this kid, he may eventually turn into a great QB for all I know. However, it was obvious that he was either not game ready or was overawed by the circumstances. This resulted in an interception that ultimately led to VB scoring points. Though the starting QB came back the next offensive series, he was largely used as a game manager, handing off the ball thereafter. Given the tools he has I can only surmise he was injured and, therefore, the ending score was not reflective of the relative merits of both teams. No, I am not saying Osceola would have come back to win the game. I am saying that the final score would have been respectable. While I favor Palmetto to win with Osceola travelling to Dade, if Osceola can replicate its performance against Edgewater, it has a live chance of winning and I would not be surprised if it did.

Forecast for the finals: If we get a Palmetto versus Seminole final, I am picking the Seminoles to win by 14. Why? While I have a lot of respect for Palmetto's defense, I think Seminole will score 24 points (yes I have more respect for the Darter's defense than Palmetto's despite the stars and all)). I don't see Palmetto scoring more than 10 to 13 points on Seminole unless over the next two games they substantially refine their offense. 

Class 7A: Selecting this class as being very competitive may come as a surprise to many given the fact that the vaunted St. Thomas Aquinas is still alive and in the hunt. Why, then, do I see it as being very competitive? The answer lies in the video of the Aquinas vs Venice game. In it, I saw a team with great special teams, very good offensive and defensive lines. But I also saw a team that had good but not great players at the skill positions, and one that had vulnerabilities on defense. For that reason, I don't see smooth sailing for Aquinas. No, I am still making them the favorite to win it all. But they are going to have to work hard for it, and I would not be the least bit surprised if they lose to one of the two teams they will have to face.

St. Thomas Aquinas at Bloomingdale: If Bloomingdale comes to play and executes flawlessly, I think they can beat St. Thomas at their place. What will it take to win? Flawless execution with minimal, if any mistakes. In looking at the regional finals video Bloomingdale was able to overcome and beat a team that was slightly more athletic by executing where it mattered. If their kicker can find a way to make St. Thomas march 80 yards on each of its offensive series that would help a lot. Giving them the ball at the 35 or 40 as they did in the Tampa Bay Tech game, is not a good strategy against Aquinas. With that said, I am going to go out on a limb and pick Bloomingdale to pull the upset in front of delirious home fans and win by 3. I was very impressed with the way the team handled red zone situations, particularly going for two, and in particular, the winning touchdown out of a "swinging gate" formation. Perhaps I am biased because I saw shades of Rick Darlington in some of the calls.

Edgewater at Niceville: Despite the more than 7 hour trip, I am going to pick the Eagles from Orlando to beat the Eagles from the Pandhandle. Why? There are two reasons: First, Edgewater is taking this game very seriously and is actually traveling to Niceville on Thursday. In the past, they have tended to drive up the day of big games, and I think it has cost them. The second reason is the matchup. The Edgewater Eagles football team is a very athletic, experienced one. In the skill positions, the only significant loss from last year's finals was I. Connelly who was a very, very good weapon for them at running back. With that said, his replacement, as well as his younger brother, should be good enough to pick up significant yards against Niceville. Having watched Niceville's game against the Bobcats from Gainesville on tape, this Niceville teams reminds me of last year's team, or for that matter the first Niceville team that lost to Dwyer. It is fundamentally sound with a couple good to great athletes, and a number of good to very good high school players. Edgewater, on the other hand, has legitimate talent at the skill positions on both sides of the football. For that reason, if they can eliminate some of the raggedness that has dogged them this year (probably due at least in part to the impact Covid-19 has had on its schedule), then I expect that, to a lesser degree, it will overwhelm Niceville in similar fashion to how Apopka overwhelmed Steinbrenner in the 8A semifinals last year. Too many weapons are hard to overcome if they are firing on all cylinders. 

Forecast for the finals: If it ends up being Edgewater versus Bloomingdale as I expect, I am hard pressed to pick a winner. Suffice it to say, that I think it will be an intriguing matchup and should be well worth the price of admission. I am pulling for Edgewater to finally hoist a trophy, but they need to overcome the finals jinx. I think the winner will be by less than a touchdown.  

[AmstaffNole]

25 minutes ago, DarterBlue2 said:

For what it's worth, I take a look below on the two classes I consider most competitive at this stage of the playoffs:

Class 8A: The four teams left are: Apopka, Osceola, Palmetto and Seminole. Due to Broward and Palm Beach county schools not being able to participate and only one significant Dade County school choosing to participate, the Orlando area has benefitted greatly this year and will, by default, have at least one team in the finals. 

Seminole at Apopka: This game will be the last opportunity for Touchdown Timmy to beat the Darters. He played youth football with many of the kids on this Apopka team and I am sure he would like to have the upper hand this time. He led Seminole teams that lost to Apopka in the playoffs during his freshman and junior years at Seminole. As of this minute, I favor Seminole to win and Timmy to get a measure of revenge. The Seminole team is as physical and athletic as Apopka and is more balanced. For Apopka to win, it will either have to replicate last year's regional finals performance when it was the defense and special teams that put the offense in a good position to score, or APK's coaching staff will have to pull another rabbit out of the hat similar to what it was able to do against Winter Park. Despite the Seminole offense being likely the best Apopka has faced this year, I don't think it will score more than 17 points. However, if the Apopka team that played West Orange and Lake Mary shows up, the 17 points will be enough and Seminole will move on to the finals. I am rooting for Apopka, but believe Seminole will likely win this game in a fairly tight match.

Osceola at Miami Palmetto: I believe most will expect Palmetto to win this game. However, I believe Osceola has a legitimate shot at this game. The biggest blotch on Osceola's record is its loss to Vero Beach. It is not losing to VB, there is no shame in that, as VB is a very good team. No, it was the margin of victory. At the half, VB led Osceola 13-7 in what had been a very tight game to that point. In the second half, Osceola fell apart. Having watched the video of this game carefully, I believe that the biggest factor in this game was the fact Osceola's QB was likely injured in the second half. Why do I think this? On its first possession to begin the second half, Osceola used the backup QB. No disrespect to this kid, he may eventually turn into a great QB for all I know. However, it was obvious that he was either not game ready or was overawed by the circumstances. This resulted in an interception that ultimately led to VB scoring points. Though the starting QB came back the next offensive series, he was largely used as a game manager, handing off the ball thereafter. Given the tools he has I can only surmise he was injured and, therefore, the ending score was not reflective of the relative merits of both teams. No, I am not saying Osceola would have come back to win the game. I am saying that the final score would have been respectable. While I favor Palmetto to win with Osceola travelling to Dade, if Osceola can replicate its performance against Edgewater, it has a live chance of winning and I would not be surprised if it did.

Forecast for the finals: If we get a Palmetto versus Seminole final, I am picking the Seminoles to win by 14. Why? While I have a lot of respect for Palmetto's defense, I think Seminole will score 24 points (yes I have more respect for the Darter's defense than Palmetto's despite the stars and all)). I don't see Palmetto scoring more than 10 to 13 points on Seminole unless over the next two games they substantially refine their offense. 

Class 7A: Selecting this class as being very competitive may come as a surprise to many given the fact that the vaunted St. Thomas Aquinas is still alive and in the hunt. Why, then, do I see it as being very competitive? The answer lies in the video of the Aquinas vs Venice game. In it, I saw a team with great special teams, very good offensive and defensive lines. But I also saw a team that had good but not great players at the skill positions, and one that had vulnerabilities on defense. For that reason, I don't see smooth sailing for Aquinas. No, I am still making them the favorite to win it all. But they are going to have to work hard for it, and I would not be the least bit surprised if they lose to one of the two teams they will have to face.

St. Thomas Aquinas at Bloomingdale: If Bloomingdale comes to play and executes flawlessly, I think they can beat St. Thomas at their place. What will it take to win? Flawless execution with minimal, if any mistakes. In looking at the regional finals video Bloomingdale was able to overcome and beat a team that was slightly more athletic by executing where it mattered. If their kicker can find a way to make St. Thomas march 80 yards on each of its offensive series that would help a lot. Giving them the ball at the 35 or 40 as they did in the Tampa Bay Tech game, is not a good strategy against Aquinas. With that said, I am going to go out on a limb and pick Bloomingdale to pull the upset in front of delirious home fans and win by 3. I was very impressed with the way the team handled red zone situations, particularly going for two, and in particular, the winning touchdown out of a "swinging gate" formation. Perhaps I am biased because I saw shades of Rick Darlington in some of the calls.

Edgewater at Niceville: Despite the more than 7 hour trip, I am going to pick the Eagles from Orlando to beat the Eagles from the Pandhandle. Why? There are two reasons: First, Edgewater is taking this game very seriously and is actually traveling to Niceville on Thursday. In the past, they have tended to drive up the day of big games, and I think it has cost them. The second reason is the matchup. The Edgewater Eagles football team is a very athletic, experienced one. In the skill positions, the only significant loss from last year's finals was I. Connelly who was a very, very good weapon for them at running back. With that said, his replacement, as well as his younger brother, should be good enough to pick up significant yards against Niceville. Having watched Niceville's game against the Bobcats from Gainesville on tape, this Niceville teams reminds me of last year's team, or for that matter the first Niceville team that lost to Dwyer. It is fundamentally sound with a couple good to great athletes, and a number of good to very good high school players. Edgewater, on the other hand, has legitimate talent at the skill positions on both sides of the football. For that reason, if they can eliminate some of the raggedness that has dogged them this year (probably due at least in part to the impact Covid-19 has had on its schedule), then I expect that, to a lesser degree, it will overwhelm Niceville in similar fashion to how Apopka overwhelmed Steinbrenner in the 8A semifinals last year. Too many weapons are hard to overcome if they are firing on all cylinders. 

Forecast for the finals: If it ends up being Edgewater versus Bloomingdale as I expect, I am hard pressed to pick a winner. Suffice it to say, that I think it will be an intriguing matchup and should be well worth the price of admission. I am pulling for Edgewater to finally hoist a trophy, but they need to overcome the finals jinx. I think the winner will be by less than a touchdown.  

I think your are putting too much stock in the Niceville Buchholz game. If Niceville runs the football in that game they win by 14. This team is much better than the 09 team. The 09 team was a 2 man show with Kody Williams and Roy Finch. This team is not that. 35 TDS to 3 INts for the QB too. They have 5-7 guys who share the load on offense consistently. Defensively they have 2 D1 guys on the line, solid LB play and one of the best CB in the country for the 22 class. 
 

I’m not saying Niceville is going to roll Edgewater or even win....but I fully expect a great game. Keep in mind last year Niceville went down to Edgewater and lost 28-20. Niceville is a MUCH better team this year on both sides of the ball and now they get to play at home. Either way I’m ready for Friday night! 

[AmstaffNole]

I just went back to NFHS to rewatch some of the Edgewater Mitchell game and they are saying the game is blacked out by Edgewater until 1/2/2021 lol. Did they seriously take the game down so Niceville can’t watch it?! Why else would this be the case? Lol

[DarterBlue2]

12 minutes ago, AmstaffNole said:

I think your are putting too much stock in the Niceville Buchholz game. If Niceville runs the football in that game they win by 14. This team is much better than the 09 team. The 09 team was a 2 man show with Kody Williams and Roy Finch. This team is not that. 35 TDS to 3 INts for the QB too. They have 5-7 guys who share the load on offense consistently. Defensively they have 2 D1 guys on the line, solid LB play and one of the best CB in the country for the 22 class. 
 

I’m not saying Niceville is going to roll Edgewater or even win....but I fully expect a great game. Keep in mind last year Niceville went down to Edgewater and lost 28-20. Niceville is a MUCH better team this year on both sides of the ball and now they get to play at home. Either way I’m ready for Friday night! 

Under normal conditions, I would be very tempted to make the trip for this game. I, too, think it could be a great game. Good luck to the Niceville Eagles. Let's hope it's competitive and free from serious injuries. 

[DarterBlue2]

3 minutes ago, AmstaffNole said:

I just went back to NFHS to rewatch some of the Edgewater Mitchell game and they are saying the game is blacked out by Edgewater until 1/2/2021 lol. Did they seriously take the game down so Niceville can’t watch it?! Why else would this be the case? Lol

It is the first year Edgewater has done this. In the past Columbus has been the team that did this the most. It is kind of silly as there is a required exchange between coaching staffs and also, the information is on Huddle for those that have the right accounts. For what it is worth, as I watched a significant part of this game live on video, Mitchell, which is (to a degree similar to the Niceville team I saw line up in Gainesville), had a great game plan for Edgewater and found space to move the ball between the defensive front and the safeties. In the end, they just tired a bit in the final 6 minutes of the game leading to the Edgewater 7 point victory.

Having watched Mitchell some against both Edgewater and Wekiva, I actually think they were one of the best coached public school high school football teams I have seen in a long time. 

[DisabledAccount]

13 minutes ago, AmstaffNole said:

I just went back to NFHS to rewatch some of the Edgewater Mitchell game and they are saying the game is blacked out by Edgewater until 1/2/2021 lol. Did they seriously take the game down so Niceville can’t watch it?! Why else would this be the case? Lol

Well that would be pointless because the FHSAA requires teams to share film with the opposing coaches (if available) during the postseason so blacking it out wouldn't prevent coaches from getting the film and is just punishing a casual fan

[DarterBlue2]

27 minutes ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

Well that would be pointless because the FHSAA requires teams to share film with the opposing coaches (if available) during the postseason so blacking it out wouldn't prevent coaches from getting the film and is just punishing a casual fan

Exactly. Unless they wanted to remove select plays from the film exchanged. 

[EagleEye]

1 hour ago, AmstaffNole said:

I just went back to NFHS to rewatch some of the Edgewater Mitchell game and they are saying the game is blacked out by Edgewater until 1/2/2021 lol. Did they seriously take the game down so Niceville can’t watch it?! Why else would this be the case? Lol

Dang, wish y'all would've told me earlier, having been to every game this season I saw all the film crews but thought it was public, could've had a folder full of game film for y'all to analyze 

[DisabledAccount]

1 hour ago, DarterBlue2 said:

Exactly. Unless they wanted to remove select plays from the film exchanged. 

True but any coach with Hudl experience would be able to notice missing plays so then they could reach out to their opponents and get the film (another reason withholding It is very pointless)

[AmstaffNole]

I’m not saying that is why it’s blacked out but I have no other explanation for why they would do that lol. 

[Rattlin Steele]

On 12/8/2020 at 11:30 AM, AmstaffNole said:

I just went back to NFHS to rewatch some of the Edgewater Mitchell game and they are saying the game is blacked out by Edgewater until 1/2/2021 lol. Did they seriously take the game down so Niceville can’t watch it?! Why else would this be the case? Lol

Seems they blackout all their events for a time, not just playoff football but other sports as well.  Don't know why the NFHS network even allows that.