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Florida HS Football Week 16 Pick em Games


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WEDNESDAY

CLASS 2A

Champagnat Catholic (10-2) vs. University Christian (8-4), 1

CLASS 3A

Trinity Christian (Jacksonville) (11-1) vs. Chaminade-Madonna (8-1), 7

THURSDAY

CLASS 4A

Bolles (10-2) vs. Cardinal Gibbons (7-1), 1

CLASS 1A

Baker (14-0) vs. Hawthorne (10-2), 7 

FRIDAY

CLASS 6A

Miami Central (7-1) vs. Lake Minneola (11-1), 1

CLASS 5A

American Heritage (Plantation) (10-2) vs, Rickards (9-1), 7

SATURDAYCLASS 8A

Osceola (Kissimmee) (9-2) vs. Seminole (Sanford) (11-0), 1

CLASS 7A

St. Thomas Aquinas (7-1) vs. Edgewater (8-2), 7

 

Please include score for this game with your pick for the tiebreaker. Thanks!

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Champagnat Catholic (10-2)   34-20

 

Trinity Christian (Jacksonville) (11-1)   20-17

 

Cardinal Gibbons (7-1)     24-10

 

Hawthorne (10-2)     24-14

 

Miami Central (7-1)     37-14

 

American Heritage (Plantation) (10-2)   21-7

 

 Seminole (Sanford) (11-0)    27-21

 

St. Thomas Aquinas (7-1)    21-10

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55 minutes ago, DarterBlue2 said:

Not sure about the final score, but I am sure Edgewater will score more than 10 points. Aquinas is beatable. 

Agreed, Darter.   I saw them play against Bloomingdale last week.  They have typical STA size and depth and their junior RB (Hankerson?) was impressive.  Not surprisingly, STA simply runs through, over and around most high school defenses.  But I was not impressed with STA's passing game.  If Edgewater has a stout front 7 on defense and puts STA in a position where they have the throw the ball to move the ball downfield and win the game, Edgewater has a good shot at holding STA to under 20 points.  Bloomingdale also elected to pooch kick every kickoff, so STA typically started its drives with good field position (own 40 or better).  

STA's defense was good, but not great.  Bloomingdale was able to drive on them multiple times over the course of the game.  If Edgewater can capitalize on a good scoring drive in the first half and then again in the second half, and then mix in a special team or turnover/short field score, I could see them winning a 21-17 game.  The betting man in me would still be tempted to put my money on the Raiders, but I won't be the least bit surprised if Edgewater gets the W. 

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2 minutes ago, Perspective said:

Agreed, Darter.   I saw them play against Bloomingdale last week.  They have typical STA size and depth and their junior RB (Hankerson?) was impressive.  Not surprisingly, STA simply runs through, over and around most high school defenses.  But I was not impressed with STA's passing game.  If Edgewater has a stout front 7 on defense and puts STA in a position where they have the throw the ball to move the ball downfield and win the game, Edgewater has a good shot at holding STA to under 20 points.  Bloomingdale also elected to pooch kick every kickoff, so STA typically started its drives with good field position (own 40 or better).  

STA's defense was good, but not great.  Bloomingdale was able to drive on them multiple times over the course of the game.  If Edgewater can capitalize on a good scoring drive in the first half and then again in the second half, and then mix in a special team or turnover/short field score, I could see them winning a 21-17 game.  The betting man in me would still be tempted to put my money on the Raiders, but I won't be the least bit surprised if Edgewater gets the W. 

1. Giving Tampa Bay Tech and Aquinas short fields are two totally different propositions. Edgewater has a decent kicker who, under normal weather conditions, can find the back of the end zone about 9 times out of 10. I am expecting them to make St. Thomas start from the 20 on each of their possessions. The kicker is also a decent punter, who, when he has time, will find a corner inside the 20 on most of his kicks. 

2. In particular, the drive that Bloomingdale went on in the middle of the third quarter should have really ended in a touchdown, instead of a fumble in the red zone. Bloomingdale was moving the ball with relative ease before the fumble. To me, the key to picking up yardage on St. Thomas is to find your guys in space. If you have talented skill players than can make defenders miss, you can pick up decent yardage on St. Thomas's defense. 

3. If Edgewater does not shoot themselves in the foot with unnecessary penalties, I could also see them winning by about 3-4 points in a game where the winner scores between 20 and 30 points. My biggest concern is penalties and the fact that a few critical pieces of Edgewater's puzzle go both ways and could tire late in the game. 

I am not an Edgewater fan per se, but would like to see them finally get over the hump in this their fifth trip to the finals. 

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45 minutes ago, DarterBlue2 said:

 

2. In particular, the drive that Bloomingdale went on in the middle of the third quarter should have really ended in a touchdown, instead of a fumble in the red zone. Bloomingdale was moving the ball with relative ease before the fumble. To me, the key to picking up yardage on St. Thomas is to find your guys in space. If you have talented skill players than can make defenders miss, you can pick up decent yardage on St. Thomas's defense. 

 

I saw footage of the Bloomingdale QB against Tampa Bay Tech.   Whenever a passing play started to break down and the pocket started to collapse, both of the QB's hands dropped down by his side (with his right hand holding onto the football) and then he would take off with the hands down by his side, ball unprotected, for his first few steps.   He has Lamar Jackson-type quickness and escapability, but for me, it was just a matter of time before one of the defensive linemen stuck his arm out at the right time and knocked the ball out of the QB's hands.   I'm pretty sure that's exactly what happened on Bloomingdale's 3rd quarter drive.   That was the turning point of the game.   If Bloomingdale scores on that drive - which they should have - who knows what happens the rest of the way. 

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So, getting back to the upcoming games:  will weather be a factor? 

It's raining in Tallahassee right now, but the rain will move through and it should be dry the rest of the week.  I don't know how much rain is falling -- just enough to give the field a good watering or enough to soak the field and create a muddy track for tomorrow's games?  I'm already on record about my concerns of a soft field getting chewed up the first few games and the effect that might have on the remaining games. 

But the temperatures could be an issue, too, especially for teams that have played in 80 plus degree weather all season.  For Thursday, the high is projected to be 53 degrees with a low of 32.  For Friday, high of 58 and low of 34.  It warms up a little on Saturday with a high of 62 and low of 43.    Reminds me a bit of World Series baseball where teams play in hot weather all season long and then end up playing playoff games and World Series games in cold (and often wet) weather.  It's just a different game in those conditions.   Will this weather affect any of the South Florida teams?  Will it affect passing teams more than running teams? 

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35 minutes ago, Perspective said:

So, getting back to the upcoming games:  will weather be a factor? 

It's raining in Tallahassee right now, but the rain will move through and it should be dry the rest of the week.  I don't know how much rain is falling -- just enough to give the field a good watering or enough to soak the field and create a muddy track for tomorrow's games?  I'm already on record about my concerns of a soft field getting chewed up the first few games and the effect that might have on the remaining games. 

But the temperatures could be an issue, too, especially for teams that have played in 80 plus degree weather all season.  For Thursday, the high is projected to be 53 degrees with a low of 32.  For Friday, high of 58 and low of 34.  It warms up a little on Saturday with a high of 62 and low of 43.    Reminds me a bit of World Series baseball where teams play in hot weather all season long and then end up playing playoff games and World Series games in cold (and often wet) weather.  It's just a different game in those conditions.   Will this weather affect any of the South Florida teams?  Will it affect passing teams more than running teams? 

You raise realistic concerns about the field especially given the weather conditions. I hope conditions are not dangerous by the time Saturday rolls around.

Regarding the impact of cold, it's been a long time since the games have been played at Doak Campbell. I was there for the 6a title game in 2002. That night, by the fourth quarter, the in stadium temperature was in the mid-30s. Although I had brought a winter jacket with me, it was still darn cold. It is possible it may have an impact on both AHP and St. Thomas who play night games, as well as Chaminade this evening. It will certainly affect holding on to the ball and could make a difference in any tight games. 

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1 hour ago, DarterBlue2 said:

It will certainly affect holding on to the ball and could make a difference in any tight games. 

Especially if sponsorship agreements require brand new balls be used for the game.  

I can't remember if I've told this story on this site before or not. My dad was a basketball ref.  He was calling a high school all-star or state playoff basketball game (I can't remember which) in Gainesville one year, circa late 60's early 70's.    As the game began, it was apparent that neither team could hold onto the brand new ball that was being used.  Shots and passes were slipping right through the hands of the players from both teams.   During the first timeout, a University of Florida basketball player, who happened to be in attendance, came down to the scorer's table and begged my dad and the other ref to switch out balls and replace the new ball with a 'slightly used' ball that the players could handle.   Both coaches agreed.  The request seemed reasonable, especially since it was coming from a neutral, yet expert source, who had no dog in the fight and just wanted the kids to be able to play good basketball.  As my dad was walking over to the ball rack to get a replacement ball, Floyd Lay, the director of the FHSAA at the time, and who was sitting right behind the scorer's table, yelled down with instructions to continue using the new ball.  Thinking he was unaware of the rationale behind switching balls, my dad started to explain why the new ball needed to be replaced.  Lay cut him off mid-sentence and said, "I don't care; the new ball will look better in the pictures in tomorrow morning's Gainesville Sun." 

So, back to my point:  if the FHSAA's deal with Wilson requires that brand new, right out of the box, balls be used for state title games, and the temperatures fall into the 40's, expect to see some slippery balls.  B)

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