Horizon and Lake Buena Vista High Schools

[DarterBlue2]

Both will apparently be playing Varsity Football in the their first year of existence and are in a 5A district with two Lake County schools. LBV relieves Dr. Phillips and Freedom, while Horizon was built to relieve Windemere High, but will no doubt impact West Orange High as well with the passage of time.

I don't expect either to have an immediate impact on DP or, for that matter, WO football over the immediate future (first two to three years); however, over an intermediate timeframe, both could impact the overall strength and quality of their neighboring programs.  

It should be interesting to see if either becomes a playoff contender over the next 5-10 years or join the plethora of new programs that have struggled to gain traction in recent times. Both, but especially LBV, could grow into being 8A classified schools within 3-5 years. 

[sikolec]

Both schools are intriguing.  I agree that the immediate impact will likely be minimal to surrounding schools, but looking at the new district lines for longer term impacts:

Lake Buena Vista Vipers

• Lake Buena Vista pulls a lot from Dr. Phillips' old district (for simplicity call it south of Sand Lake Rd).  LBV also pulls from Freedom.  Lots of vacation rentals in LBV's district as it is the heart of Orlando's tourist area.  It'll be an interesting to see how this translates to athletes and athletics.
• Dr. Phillips should stay strong.  They lose some of their district, but nothing too concerning from my glance at the new districts.
• Freedom really gets squeezed and honestly the district lines are very odd (thin sliver between LBV and Cypress Creek).

Horizon Hawks

• Horizon pulls pretty much entirely from Windermere.  The area around Horizon has a lot of new housing developments and apartments (and many more on the way).  A lot of movement to this area for families looking for new homes / apartments within reasonable commutes to Orlando and even Lakeland.  I could see Horizon developing into a decent sports school.  Football will rely on solid coaching to build up a program and rival Windermere's momentum.  This could develop into a fun rivalry as both schools continue to grow.   
• West Orange actually gains back some of their old district (from Windermere's district).  They will benefit from gaining south of Hartwood Marsh.  Again, lots of new development in this area.
• Windermere loses a lot.  I think they get hit hardest by the new schools (Horizon) but they do have a few years head start and some momentum already building.

Thoughts?

[badbird]

I think both will be bad in football for a long time.  

[Jags904]

3 hours ago, sikolec said:

Both schools are intriguing.  I agree that the immediate impact will likely be minimal to surrounding schools, but looking at the new district lines for longer term impacts:

Lake Buena Vista Vipers

• Lake Buena Vista pulls a lot from Dr. Phillips' old district (for simplicity call it south of Sand Lake Rd).  LBV also pulls from Freedom.  Lots of vacation rentals in LBV's district as it is the heart of Orlando's tourist area.  It'll be an interesting to see how this translates to athletes and athletics.
• Dr. Phillips should stay strong.  They lose some of their district, but nothing too concerning from my glance at the new districts.
• Freedom really gets squeezed and honestly the district lines are very odd (thin sliver between LBV and Cypress Creek).

Horizon Hawks

• Horizon pulls pretty much entirely from Windermere.  The area around Horizon has a lot of new housing developments and apartments (and many more on the way).  A lot of movement to this area for families looking for new homes / apartments within reasonable commutes to Orlando and even Lakeland.  I could see Horizon developing into a decent sports school.  Football will rely on solid coaching to build up a program and rival Windermere's momentum.  This could develop into a fun rivalry as both schools continue to grow.   
• West Orange actually gains back some of their old district (from Windermere's district).  They will benefit from gaining south of Hartwood Marsh.  Again, lots of new development in this area.
• Windermere loses a lot.  I think they get hit hardest by the new schools (Horizon) but they do have a few years head start and some momentum already building.

Thoughts?

LBV is going to struggle to develop a community. I know exactly where that is (have rented a house there many times) and it’s a transient area. 

[FBGUY1989]

How does the Orlando area determine new schools. Miami and Broward are totally different

Cypress Bay High School Enrollment 4800 

John A. Ferguson Senior High Enrollment 4250

Coral Reef Senior High Enrollment 3400

South Dade Senior High Enrollment 3200

G. Holmes Braddock Senior High Enrollment 3100

Coral Gables Senior High Enrollment 3100

Miami Coral Park Senior High Enrollment 3000

Miami Senior High Enrollment 2900

[DarterBlue2]

34 minutes ago, FBGUY1989 said:

How does the Orlando area determine new schools. Miami and Broward are totally different

Cypress Bay High School Enrollment 4800 

John A. Ferguson Senior High Enrollment 4250

Coral Reef Senior High Enrollment 3400

South Dade Senior High Enrollment 3200

G. Holmes Braddock Senior High Enrollment 3100

Coral Gables Senior High Enrollment 3100

Miami Coral Park Senior High Enrollment 3000

Miami Senior High Enrollment 2900

In Orange County, new high schools are usually built (there are a few exceptions), to cater to an enrollment of approximately 3,000. So, in that sense, at capacity, all but one public high school I can think of, would meet 8A classification. Several Orange County high schools currently have enrollments in excess of 3,000 meaning they exceed capacity. 

I am not sure what the deal is in Seminole,  but all high schools there are currently in either 8A or 7A for football meaning their enrollments vary from about 1,900 up to well over 3,000. 

[Jambun82]

4 hours ago, badbird said:

I think both will be bad in football for a long time.  

Why do you think that Swami/Nostradamus? 

[FBGUY1989]

32 minutes ago, DarterBlue2 said:

In Orange County, new high schools are usually built (there are a few exceptions), to cater to an enrollment of approximately 3,000. So, in that sense, at capacity, all but one public high school I can think of, would meet 8A classification. Several Orange County high schools currently have enrollments in excess of 3,000 meaning they exceed capacity. 

I am not sure what the deal is in Seminole,  but all high schools there are currently in either 8A or 7A for football meaning their enrollments vary from about 1,900 up to well over 3,000. 

Windermere just opened and already have a new school to help with overcrowding and I know Apopka is overcrowded as well

[Beek]

As far as Football is concerned. Poinciana had tried to get games with both but lost out due to scheduling. The orange county Ad had a lot to do with their scheduling. I know one of the coaches and hoping they will do well!

 

Still trying to rebuild poinciana. This will be my first year with a schedule that I was able to negotiate. Hopefully we will do well. With our long time rival (Liberty)  having to find a new coach after the spring, hopefully this will do well for us. I feel this is a respectable schedule , knowing who we are and the level of competition. We will be challenged ! but have the ability to win a few games this year. not stuck in a unwinnable district (bartow, winterhaven, george jenkins, all good teams but over our heads)

Poincianas schedule:

KOC Cypress creek

Week 2 Celebration

week 3 Mulberry

Week 4 Lake region

Week 5 Tenoroc

Week 6 Foundation Academy

Week 7 Davenport

Week 8 Haines City

Week 9 Parrish Community

Week 10 Akelyns Angels

Week 11 Liberty

 

We are still trying to find our beginning. Winning 7 games in the last 2 years is a good start. Better results than the last many years. But we are still behind the sticks when it comes to athletes. Not disrespecting our kids. But so many of the kids zoned for Poinciana are going to other schools including our rival!

[DarterBlue2]

9 hours ago, FBGUY1989 said:

Windermere just opened and already have a new school to help with overcrowding and I know Apopka is overcrowded as well

There has been a lot of building in the Windemere zone over the past 20 years. What used to be semi-rural (Orange groves and the like) are now built up. To be honest, the only part of Orange that is not substantially built up is the extreme East and the very extreme North West. Apopka is about 10 to 15% overcapacity, but that could be solved (at least in theory) by rezoning, as both Edgewater and Wekiva are below capacity. 

[nolebull813]

On 6/9/2021 at 12:09 AM, Beek said:

As far as Football is concerned. Poinciana had tried to get games with both but lost out due to scheduling. The orange county Ad had a lot to do with their scheduling. I know one of the coaches and hoping they will do well!

 

Still trying to rebuild poinciana. This will be my first year with a schedule that I was able to negotiate. Hopefully we will do well. With our long time rival (Liberty)  having to find a new coach after the spring, hopefully this will do well for us. I feel this is a respectable schedule , knowing who we are and the level of competition. We will be challenged ! but have the ability to win a few games this year. not stuck in a unwinnable district (bartow, winterhaven, george jenkins, all good teams but over our heads)

Poincianas schedule:

KOC Cypress creek

Week 2 Celebration

week 3 Mulberry

Week 4 Lake region

Week 5 Tenoroc

Week 6 Foundation Academy

Week 7 Davenport

Week 8 Haines City

Week 9 Parrish Community

Week 10 Akelyns Angels

Week 11 Liberty

 

We are still trying to find our beginning. Winning 7 games in the last 2 years is a good start. Better results than the last many years. But we are still behind the sticks when it comes to athletes. Not disrespecting our kids. But so many of the kids zoned for Poinciana are going to other schools including our rival!

Poinciana needs to go independent. They have one of the worst winning percentages in state history since they opened. (I have their complete game history at home)

Teams like Poinciana would be better suited going independent and trying to make a bowl game at 5 wins. Maybe fundraiser a trip out of state to play some other team comparable to them. Choose an easier schedule to rack up wins and get in the habit of winning. It’s a mentality. 
 

If players see you guys winning 5-7 games they might be inclined to stay and see if they can be apart of the program that takes them to the next level. Build a solid foundation and then jump back into district play 

[Nulli Secundus]

On 6/9/2021 at 12:09 AM, Beek said:

As far as Football is concerned. Poinciana had tried to get games with both but lost out due to scheduling. The orange county Ad had a lot to do with their scheduling. I know one of the coaches and hoping they will do well!

 

Still trying to rebuild poinciana. This will be my first year with a schedule that I was able to negotiate. Hopefully we will do well. With our long time rival (Liberty)  having to find a new coach after the spring, hopefully this will do well for us. I feel this is a respectable schedule , knowing who we are and the level of competition. We will be challenged ! but have the ability to win a few games this year. not stuck in a unwinnable district (bartow, winterhaven, george jenkins, all good teams but over our heads)

Poincianas schedule:

KOC Cypress creek

Week 2 Celebration

week 3 Mulberry

Week 4 Lake region

Week 5 Tenoroc

Week 6 Foundation Academy

Week 7 Davenport

Week 8 Haines City

Week 9 Parrish Community

Week 10 Akelyns Angels

Week 11 Liberty

 

We are still trying to find our beginning. Winning 7 games in the last 2 years is a good start. Better results than the last many years. But we are still behind the sticks when it comes to athletes. Not disrespecting our kids. But so many of the kids zoned for Poinciana are going to other schools including our rival!

I fully expect a winning season with that schedule.  The Polk schools are struggling minus 1st year Davenport and that depends on what they were able to get from Ridge, LOL.

[badbird]

On 6/8/2021 at 10:43 PM, Jambun82 said:

Why do you think that Swami/Nostradamus? 

Well Horizon is Windermere relief and Lake Buena Vista is mainly relieving Freedom.  Neither of those schools has won more than 3 games the last 5 years and the last time Freedom had a winning record was 2012.  I feel confident in saying both will struggle in football for years to come.  Both schools got very lucky and put in the same district that they could actually be competitive fairly quickly in that district.  With that said the district is one of the worst districts in the state.

[Beek]

On 6/10/2021 at 9:53 AM, nolebull813 said:

Poinciana needs to go independent. They have one of the worst winning percentages in state history since they opened. (I have their complete game history at home)

Teams like Poinciana would be better suited going independent and trying to make a bowl game at 5 wins. Maybe fundraiser a trip out of state to play some other team comparable to them. Choose an easier schedule to rack up wins and get in the habit of winning. It’s a mentality. 
 

If players see you guys winning 5-7 games they might be inclined to stay and see if they can be apart of the program that takes them to the next level. Build a solid foundation and then jump back into district play 

Exactly my thoughts, we have done just that. Independent. No need playing schools way over our head. I have respect for those teams, I am just tired of being everyone's homecoming date! We feel that we are headed in the right direction. Numbers are looking good for the first year after the "lockdown". Our demographic has not changed. We are who we are. Finally we have a few incoming vs outgoing transfers. Lost a few to greener pastures from last fall only time will tell for those kids, some have transferred to 2 schools after leaving us! Overall I feel we are better than we were last year. Kids are pumped, there is a buzz about the players. Better than I have ever seen in the 8 years here.  I make no guarantees. We have a schedule with teams that are mostly within our abilities. For the first time I feel we have the ability to win  every game on our schedule. Will we do that , absolutely not. But we can compete. We have some strong opponents. Hope the kids are up to that. Part of the slow process of pulling this place out of the basement . I knew it was going to take many years to establish something here. I am committed and so are my coaches. We just take it one day at a time.  As far as a fundraiser. Good luck! We have tried many avenues, but participation and community values make that different. Our AD would never consider letting us go out of state. I feel I am always fighting the "establishment". But what the heck, keep pushing for the kids. It is what we do! When you are not at a "football school" there is always an issue! That is a reason that keeps poinciana where they are. 

 

[Nolestrong]

If you had to list the top Football schools in Osceola County what would it be?

[Beek]

According to MAX Preps (according to state rankings as on 8/14/2021)

1. Osceola  12th

2. St Cloud 251st

3. Toho 239th

4 Harmony 278th

5. Liberty 362nd

6. Gateway 439th

7.  Celebration 440th

8, Poinciana 452nd

 

 

In My humble opinion. Please dont see this as ego or anything else. this is my personal take, 

and I could be horribly be wrong!

in order of my personal opinion knowing what i think I know.

1. Osceola they will continue to dominate unless there is trouble with coaching change, they have 3 of my former players.#greenergrass

2. St Cloud, they may rise to the task. great coaches and staff and kids. it is Osceola's to loose. No offense to 

Brian Smart, great coach, but coaches cant play the game! #schoolofchoice

3. Harmony, great coach, great kids, just think they may be out played by the above, I am known to be wrong!

4. Poinciana, Hate to say this or sound arrogant. (not in the same class as the above county teams, yet!) The games will prove me right or wrong. I mean no offense to my county coaches.

5. Celebration, new head coach, great energy, and a much tougher schedule than Point! (could steal a win from the top 3 in my list, including myself) do not  think 1 off season will overcome the talent. just my humble opinion. He is doing great things there! (the answer to this will be week 2)

(Celebration has already beaten St. Cloud in Fall classic. they seem to be the real deal, Goes to show what I know, or thought i knew.  May have to update the list accordingly. But Ill wait until a few more games are played. We were missing many players this last week due to state grades not being put in)

6. Toho, Lack of players and new coach (no disrespect, just the fact of NEW) will hurt this program.  Unfortunately kids are looking for the golden ticket. Loyalty doesn't exist. (my program included). Too bad kids can just transfer where they want to go !

7. TIE  Gateway and Liberty, (even though I have never beaten either. Gateway is plagued with transfers and lack of participation, Unofficial information) Liberty is struggling, in my opinion after a late coaching change. I know both coaches, both made good choices, they will feel what have felt for the past 2 years. 

I am not a Sh*t talker, I try to tell it to my kids , staff and the world how I see it. I am not a expert. I am a realist. We may look at this thread 3 months from now and say WTF was he saying!. It is just a opinion. I have the greatest respect for my county coaches, because we all struggle from the same issues. Demographics hurt, but Liberty has history on its side, Never lost to Poinciana!

[nolebull813]

If Poinciana is independent maybe they will be interested in playing a bowl game against Land O Lakes. I live in LoL and know some of the coaches. They dropped out of district after realignment and the head coach has expressed interest in playing a bowl if they win 5 games. 
 

The schedule as well is very winnable. I think they only have game that is an automatic loss (Tampa Catholic). But the rest they will be in the thick of things. 
 

I will reach out to Poinciana and see if they would be open to that assuming both teams win 5 games