Math Help

[Perspective]

The initial RPI Rankings are out for football.   Per Rule 4.7.4 of the Football Sport Manual, the RPI Ranking Calculation for a particular team is calculated by adding together the following three components:  (1) that team's Winning Percentage (multiplied by .35), (2) that team's Opponent's Winning Percentage (also multiplied by .35), and (3) that team's Opponent's Opponent's Winning Percentage (multiplied by .30). 

As of today, Venice's RPI Ranking is number 1 in the state.  It's .89167, which is derived by adding (1) their Winning Percentage (1.000) times .35 equals .35000, (2) their Opponent's Winning Percentage (1.000) times .35 equals .35000 and (3) their Opponent's Opponent's Winning Percentage (.63889) times .30 equals .191667.  Those three calculations do indeed total .89167. 

Here's where I'm struggling:  if Venice is undefeated (which they are), their Winning Percentage is indeed 1.000.  But, it's impossible for their Opponent's Winning Percentage to be 1.000.  Venice's opponents have at least three collective losses because they all lost to Venice. 

Now, here's what I suspect someone will say:  yo, the "Opponent's Winning Percentage" is based on all the games they have played except the games against the team whose RPI you're trying to figure out.  Maybe that makes sense; maybe it doesn't.  However, I looked over the FHSAA Handbook (including the Administrative Procedures), as well as the Football Sport Manual, and I could not find any mention of doing it this way.   Can someone point me in the right direction? 

[DarterBlue2]

I will readily admit that I have not done any research on this. However, if your research is accurate and complete, it seems like an error to me. Sarasota and Edgewater are 3-1 each for a winning percentage of .75. Cocoa is 2-1 for a winning percentage of .67 (all three taken from MaxPreps since they are the record keeper). Therefore, it seems that the second .35 should be multiplied by about .73 (rough approximation) and not 1.

I have always been uncomfortable with the current system as once complexity is introduced unless there is diligence, errors are likely to abound. 

With that said, I am sure Venice probably has the top RPI in the state at this juncture. However, one wonders whether teams have not been helped/penalized by errors in the past.  

[Hwy17]

1 hour ago, Perspective said:

The initial RPI Rankings are out for football.   Per Rule 4.7.4 of the Football Sport Manual, the RPI Ranking Calculation for a particular team is calculated by adding together the following three components:  (1) that team's Winning Percentage (multiplied by .35), (2) that team's Opponent's Winning Percentage (also multiplied by .35), and (3) that team's Opponent's Opponent's Winning Percentage (multiplied by .30). 

As of today, Venice's RPI Ranking is number 1 in the state.  It's .89167, which is derived by adding (1) their Winning Percentage (1.000) times .35 equals .35000, (2) their Opponent's Winning Percentage (1.000) times .35 equals .35000 and (3) their Opponent's Opponent's Winning Percentage (.63889) times .30 equals .191667.  Those three calculations do indeed total .89167. 

Here's where I'm struggling:  if Venice is undefeated (which they are), their Winning Percentage is indeed 1.000.  But, it's impossible for their Opponent's Winning Percentage to be 1.000.  Venice's opponents have at least three collective losses because they all lost to Venice. 

Now, here's what I suspect someone will say:  yo, the "Opponent's Winning Percentage" is based on all the games they have played except the games against the team whose RPI you're trying to figure out.  Maybe that makes sense; maybe it doesn't.  However, I looked over the FHSAA Handbook (including the Administrative Procedures), as well as the Football Sport Manual, and I could not find any mention of doing it this way.   Can someone point me in the right direction? 

So, my son just ran the math for Hardee's RPI. He said he had to subtract our game out to arrive at the same OWP as FHSAA has.

[Ray Icaza]

1 hour ago, DarterBlue2 said:

I will readily admit that I have not done any research on this. However, if your research is accurate and complete, it seems like an error to me. Sarasota and Edgewater are 3-1 each for a winning percentage of .75. Cocoa is 2-1 for a winning percentage of .67 (all three taken from MaxPreps since they are the record keeper). Therefore, it seems that the second .35 should be multiplied by about .73 (rough approximation) and not 1.

I have always been uncomfortable with the current system as once complexity is introduced unless there is diligence, errors are likely to abound. 

With that said, I am sure Venice probably has the top RPI in the state at this juncture. However, one wonders whether teams have not been helped/penalized by errors in the past.  

That is why winning the district is more important so you at least get one playoff game at home guaranteed.  If I am not mistaken this RPI then determines the next playoff games.  Last year we were on the road for 3 of the 4 prior to championship games so it does make one suspicious. 

[SubZero]

Those RPI rankings are horrible. How is Miami Central 189, but you got a certain unknown team like First Baptist at #13. Who made these rankings. Flat out garbage. 

[SubZero]

Miramar is ranked at 87, but behind Fort Lauderdale. What is that. No way the Flying L's a better team than the Patriots. How is Doral Academy ahead of Apopka. No sense does it make. 

[DarterBlue2]

44 minutes ago, SubZero said:

Those RPI rankings are horrible. How is Miami Central 189, but you got a certain unknown team like First Baptist at #13. Who made these rankings. Flat out garbage. 

 

40 minutes ago, SubZero said:

Miramar is ranked at 87, but behind Fort Lauderdale. What is that. No way the Flying L's a better team than the Patriots. How is Doral Academy ahead of Apopka. No sense does it make. 

It's still early. The later RPI rankings will make more sense. My concern is that the math could be wrong. 

[Cat_Scratch]

MC choose 2 opponents that would beat almost anyone but IMG.  

It will factor in the SOS as the weeks pass. You have to win and play good teams to advance in the RPI. Those with weak schedules will lose their top ranking in time.

https://fhsaa.com/documents/2021/9/22/2021_Football_Standings.pdf

[Hwy17]

2 hours ago, Cat_Scratch said:

MC choose 2 opponents that would beat almost anyone but IMG.  

It will factor in the SOS as the weeks pass. You have to win and play good teams to advance in the RPI. Those with weak schedules will lose their top ranking in time.

https://fhsaa.com/documents/2021/9/22/2021_Football_Standings.pdf

It's possible to manipulate an RPI. Going 10-0 against weak teams counts 35%.  If a couple of your opponents go 5-5 or 6-4, your RPI actually looks pretty good.

[DarterBlue2]

53 minutes ago, Hwy17 said:

It's possible to manipulate an RPI. Going 10-0 against weak teams counts 35%.  If a couple of your opponents go 5-5 or 6-4, your RPI actually looks pretty good.

Going 10-0 depends on your district, though, if you are in 5A or higher. If you are in a tough one, you will have at least a couple of games you could lose against teams that will go between 10-0 and 8-2. 

[Perspective]

For what it's worth, I reached out to the FHSAA regarding the issue of whether an opponent's loss to the team whose RPI is being determined is reflected in the Opponents Winning Percentage.  I heard back in less than an hour and they confirmed that it is not.   I'm assuming the converse also is true (i.e., an opponent's win over the team whose RPI is being determined would not be reflected in the OWP either), but I have not confirmed this.  So, using Venice as the example, when calculating Venice's OWP, the losses to Venice by Venice's opponents are not reflected in the RPI.  

[Hwy17]

6 hours ago, DarterBlue2 said:

Going 10-0 depends on your district, though, if you are in 5A or higher. If you are in a tough one, you will have at least a couple of games you could lose against teams that will go between 10-0 and 8-2. 

Look at Lemon Bay's RPI. 

[Roadkillav8r]

You guys take the cake for high school football nuttiness.  I now live in NC and as near as I can tell we don't have anything like Florida high school football crazies up here, and I mean football crazies in the best possible way, believe me.  I don't calculate RPI but I do listen to Niceville on-line every Friday even though I'm not there any more.

 

[Jullian]

40 minutes ago, Roadkillav8r said:

You guys take the cake for high school football nuttiness.  I now live in NC and as near as I can tell we don't have anything like Florida high school football crazies up here, and I mean football crazies in the best possible way, believe me.  I don't calculate RPI but I do listen to Niceville on-line every Friday even though I'm not there any more.

 

Crazy is right! Insane is a good word. You follow Reidsville up in NC?

[Roadkillav8r]

Polk County is my local team.  2A