Columbia Fan Top 50 post week 9 Rankings

[DisabledAccount]

Statewide Rankings

 

 

1 6A Tampa Jesuit

2 7A St Thomas Aquinas

3 5A Miami Central

4 3A Chaminade Madonna

5 8A Venice

6 8A Sanford Seminole

7 4A Cocoa

8 4A Cardinal Gibbons

9 5A Miami Killian

10 7A Edgewater

11 6A Orlando Jones

12 6A Miami Northwestern

13 8A Treasure Coast

14 7A Dillard

15 7A Buchholz

16 4A Bolles

17 7A Lakeland

18 4A Gulliver Prep

19 5A American Heritage Plantation

20 3A Berkeley Prep

21 8A Western

22 7A Niceville

23 8A West Orange

24 7A Tampa Bay Tech

25 6A Naples

 

26 8A Osceola

27 4A Lakewood

28 8A Apopka

29 8A Miami Palmetto

30 8A Deerfield Beach

31 2A Champagnat Catholic

32 7A Homestead

33 3A Miami Edison

34 8A Lake Mary

35 7A Armwood

36 6A Panama City Mosley

37 6A Vanguard

38 8A Sarasota Riverview

39 8A Boone

40 8A Bartram Trail

41 8A Vero Beach

42 8A Miami Columbus

43 6A Columbia

44 6A St Augustine

45 6A Jacksonville Riverside

46 7A Lake Gibson

47 1A Madison County

48 3A Florida High

49 5A Rockledge

50 2A Jacksonville Trinity Christian

 

[DisabledAccount]

Statewide Rankings (Tiers)

 

 

6A Tampa Jesuit

7A St Thomas Aquinas

5A Miami Central

3A Chaminade Madonna

8A Venice

8A Sanford Seminole

 

 

 

 

4A Cocoa

4A Cardinal Gibbons

5A Miami Killian

7A Edgewater

6A Orlando Jones

6A Miami Northwestern

8A Treasure Coast

7A Dillard

7A Buchholz

4A Bolles

7A Lakeland

4A Gulliver Prep

5A American Heritage Plantation

3A Berkeley Prep

8A Western

 

 

 

7A Niceville

8A West Orange

7A Tampa Bay Tech

6A Naples

8A Osceola

4A Lakewood

8A Apopka

8A Miami Palmetto

8A Deerfield Beach

2A Champagnat Catholic

7A Homestead

3A Miami Edison

8A Lake Mary

7A Armwood

 

 

 

6A Panama City Mosley

6A Vanguard

8A Sarasota Riverview

8A Boone

8A Bartram Trail

8A Vero Beach

8A Miami Columbus

6A Columbia

6A St Augustine

6A Jacksonville Riverside

7A Lake Gibson

1A Madison County

3A Florida High

5A Rockledge

2A Jacksonville Trinity Christian

[Perspective]

12 minutes ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

Statewide Rankings (Tiers)

 

 

6A Tampa Jesuit

7A St Thomas Aquinas

5A Miami Central

3A Chaminade Madonna

8A Venice

8A Sanford Seminole

 

 

 

 

4A Cocoa

4A Cardinal Gibbons

 

 

 

 

 

Didn't Cardinal Gibbons just beat Venice . . . at Venice?  Yet Venice is still a tier above Cardinal Gibbons?  No dog in the fight for me, just curious. 

[DisabledAccount]

4 minutes ago, Perspective said:

Didn't Cardinal Gibbons just beat Venice . . . at Venice?  Yet Venice is still a tier above Cardinal Gibbons?  No dog in the fight for me, just curious. 

I have to evaluate it over the course of the entire season 

 

Head to head is important but it would be impossible to follow that across the board because when team A beats team B then team B beats team C then Team C beats Team A who do you put over the other?

 

Cardinal Gibbons has been a bit erratic especially with losing to AHP, without that loss I probably would have gibbons over Venice in the rankings and in same tier 

[DarterBlue2]

The top 20 looks solid,  but the question @Perspectiveasks is one I was going to ask. Venice's loss to Gibbons was at home. So, unless you think the game was a fluke, Gibbons should be ahead of them. Just saying that to keep Venice over Gibbons, you need to justify it. 

[DisabledAccount]

3 minutes ago, DarterBlue2 said:

The top 20 looks solid,  but the question @Perspectiveasks is one I was going to ask. Venice's loss to Gibbons was at home. So, unless you think the game was a fluke, Gibbons should be ahead of them. Just saying that to keep Venice over Gibbons, you need to justify it. 

It was a good win 

 

However because Venice is still my projected 8A winner I couldn't drop them below Seminole and with the loss to AHP by cardinal gibbons hurting their resume I couldn't jump them into the top 5 when they were one loss away from falling out of the top 25 heading into last week 

 

I wouldn't say the win was a fluke but I think in 10 games I would favor Venice to win 6 or 7 of 10 

[DisabledAccount]

Based on what I saw from the box score penalties really affected that game so it's tough to know if CG wins in normal circumstances 

[Jesse]

50 minutes ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

Based on what I saw from the box score penalties really affected that game so it's tough to know if CG wins in normal circumstances 

Why didn't Columbia drop farther down 

[Ray Icaza]

1 minute ago, Jesse said:

Why didn't Columbia drop farther down 

Or MadCo jump ahead of them?

[DisabledAccount]

18 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Why didn't Columbia drop farther down 

They dropped from 27 to 43 (16 drop) 

 

The reason they didn't drop as far as Rockledge (who was in the top 25) was because Madison wasn't that far from the top 50 after their win over Florida High and had Madison not had a loss to Winless Chiles earlier this year they would have been in the top 50 two weeks ago 

 

The rule of thumb in my rankings with unranked losses is the size of drop depends on 1 how they lost (margin of victory, overall performance, etc) and 2 how far was the gap between the team who lost and the team who beat them 

 

Merritt Island was much lower coming into last week than Madison was so Columbia didn't drop as far for their loss as Rockledge did 

 

If both teams are ranked then they may end up switching positions relatively if they are ranked close together (see West Orange jumping Osceola) depending upon how the game happened

 

In the case of Venice vs Cardinal Gibbons they were separated significantly with Venice at number 1 and Cardinal Gibbons at 17 last week but with how close they played and looking at the box score and in addition their loss to a down AHP team kept me from jumping them ahead and simply dropped Venice a few spots and put Cardinal Gibbons back in the top 10 

[DisabledAccount]

7 minutes ago, Ray Icaza said:

Or MadCo jump ahead of them?

If Madison was ranked before the week they would have 

 

There were a lot of factors in the game that led to where they were ranked and the Chiles loss still hurts Madison resume and based on what I saw with both teams if played on a neutral site Columbia would win 70% of the time over Madison which was enough to put them same tier because of their positioning in the rankings but not enough to jump them from unranked while also having them jump some other teams between Madison and Columbia 

 

 

Your welcome to do your own rankings and put them wherever you like but I do have over 6 years of experience doing these rankings statewide now so I've gotten used to trying to find the right way to evaluate different approaches to rankings until I found a system that seems to work as evidenced by how the top half of the rankings are and how it's very similar to other ranking services give it take a few teams spots 

[Jesse]

12 minutes ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

If Madison was ranked before the week they would have 

 

There were a lot of factors in the game that led to where they were ranked and the Chiles loss still hurts Madison resume and based on what I saw with both teams if played on a neutral site Columbia would win 70% of the time over Madison which was enough to put them same tier because of their positioning in the rankings but not enough to jump them from unranked while also having them jump some other teams between Madison and Columbia 

 

 

Your welcome to do your own rankings and put them wherever you like but I do have over 6 years of experience doing these rankings statewide now so I've gotten used to trying to find the right way to evaluate different approaches to rankings until I found a system that seems to work as evidenced by how the top half of the rankings are and how it's very similar to other ranking services give it take a few teams spots 

You think madco gonna win state 

[DisabledAccount]

3 minutes ago, Jesse said:

You think madco gonna win state 

I think 1a is wide open at this point 

 

Region 2 is pretty average so Madison at the worst should make final 4 

 

Region 3 should be Union County

 

Region 4 will come down to Pahokee vs Hawthorne

 

I think those are the biggest threats to Madison County at this stage as all those 4 are in the same tier so I see it being one of those 4 winning 1A but idk where each team will be come postseason so it's hard to say who's the favorite right now 

[Ray Icaza]

16 minutes ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

If Madison was ranked before the week they would have 

 

There were a lot of factors in the game that led to where they were ranked and the Chiles loss still hurts Madison resume and based on what I saw with both teams if played on a neutral site Columbia would win 70% of the time over Madison which was enough to put them same tier because of their positioning in the rankings but not enough to jump them from unranked while also having them jump some other teams between Madison and Columbia 

 

 

Your welcome to do your own rankings and put them wherever you like but I do have over 6 years of experience doing these rankings statewide now so I've gotten used to trying to find the right way to evaluate different approaches to rankings until I found a system that seems to work as evidenced by how the top half of the rankings are and how it's very similar to other ranking services give it take a few teams spots 

Wouldn't dream of doing my own poll as I readily admit my ignorance to quality of many teams around the state.  For that same reason I don't participate in the Pick'Em as that would just confirm that ignorance.  Just seems strange when Venice loses with home field advantage that doesn't carry more weight, yet when Columbia lost home field advantage based on your thinking carried alot of weight (70% they would have won otherwise).  Have no favorites in this discussion, but it seems like the "RPI" factor is more important than head to head.  One can say they have 6 years of experience doing this or one can say 1 years experience repeated 6 times.  If that experience had alot of merit I would think it would reflect in your Pick'Em standings at least being in the top 5 against other participants who supposedly don't or at least don't claim to.

[Jesse]

30 minutes ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

I think 1a is wide open at this point 

 

Region 2 is pretty average so Madison at the worst should make final 4 

 

Region 3 should be Union County

 

Region 4 will come down to Pahokee vs Hawthorne

 

I think those are the biggest threats to Madison County at this stage as all those 4 are in the same tier so I see it being one of those 4 winning 1A but idk where each team will be come postseason so it's hard to say who's the favorite right now 

Yeah union county going to final 4, baker might miss it but Madison putting 50 on them and blountstown or whoever in final 4

I like madco over pahokee 2 scores. 28-14 all Madison needs is offense

[DisabledAccount]

18 minutes ago, Ray Icaza said:

Wouldn't dream of doing my own poll as I readily admit my ignorance to quality of many teams around the state.  For that same reason I don't participate in the Pick'Em as that would just confirm that ignorance.  Just seems strange when Venice loses with home field advantage that doesn't carry more weight, yet when Columbia lost home field advantage based on your thinking carried alot of weight (70% they would have won otherwise).  Have no favorites in this discussion, but it seems like the "RPI" factor is more important than head to head.  One can say they have 6 years of experience doing this or one can say 1 years experience repeated 6 times.  If that experience had alot of merit I would think it would reflect in your Pick'Em standings at least being in the top 5 against other participants who supposedly don't or at least don't claim to.

Well considering I only rank to 50 there's a lot of games in the PickEms involving teams who are unranked vs unranked plus confidence PickEms always are ones I tend to struggle with because in addition to having to pick the right winner I have to evaluate what games to apply more points to 

 

I've never been that good with confidence PickEms because I usually assign too high on the wrong games and end up getting a bunch of the lower confidence games right instead

 

 

The fact is with Venice vs Cardinal Gibbons I think both teams are really at the same tier and could trade wins but Cardinal Gibbons Ranking is hurt with the AHP loss and remember this was Venice first loss all year with a very strong schedule

 

Had Cardinal Gibbons not lost to AHP they would have jumped them just as Madison would have jumped Columbia if it wasn't for the Chiles loss 

 

There was a more detailed reason why I feel Columbia would win 70% of the time on a neutral field over Madison but it's not something I can discuss on a public board just as I'm sure most people who do rankings don't share every detail of their ranking process and usually only gives bits and pieces of information as to not give away their formula

[DisabledAccount]

28 minutes ago, Ray Icaza said:

Wouldn't dream of doing my own poll as I readily admit my ignorance to quality of many teams around the state.  For that same reason I don't participate in the Pick'Em as that would just confirm that ignorance.  Just seems strange when Venice loses with home field advantage that doesn't carry more weight, yet when Columbia lost home field advantage based on your thinking carried alot of weight (70% they would have won otherwise).  Have no favorites in this discussion, but it seems like the "RPI" factor is more important than head to head.  One can say they have 6 years of experience doing this or one can say 1 years experience repeated 6 times.  If that experience had alot of merit I would think it would reflect in your Pick'Em standings at least being in the top 5 against other participants who supposedly don't or at least don't claim to.

Yeah and that was me at one time too but as I took a chance and started trying to rank teams I was able to learn from talking to people in different parts of the state and evaluating the rankings until I started to get a feel for where teams stand and a formula for ranking that tends to do well over the course of the season 

 

I don't claim to know everything but I do feel I rank fairly and I listen to feedback I get from rankings and it allows me to evaluate why I rank a team in a certain spot and adjust it in the subsequent weeks so that it's close to accurate as possible in a chaotic environment that is high school football where your talking about kids 15-18 where even a small distraction could cause a team to lose on any given week and force a major shakeup in the rankings

[john taylor]

i dont care what offense madison get they wont beat pahokee

[Jesse]

28 minutes ago, john taylor said:

i dont care what offense madison get they wont beat pahokee

You crazy 

[john taylor]

ok we will see

[THIS_IS_DILLARD]

Solid rankings but in my opinion if any team is justified to be #9 is Dillard , Not killian. Granted our overall schedule is nothing to write home about, but neither is killian especially having them ranked that high. 
 

now I did notice Dillard went from 19-14 , but with Dillard literally being a 4th & goal away from beating the number 15th team in the NATION on their home turf holds a lot more weight in my opinion then ANY team killian has faced. 
 

if we going off wat they did last year as well, well killian was knocked out by NMB in the tru county playoffs only for NMB to be blown out by Dillard in the title game. 
 

Once again solid rankings like usual, & I’m actually okay with our #14 rankings but killian hasn’t earned the right to be that high. 
 

p.s behind STA I believe Dillard is the STRONGEST team in 7A. In my opinion NO other team will come close to beating the raiders. 

[DisabledAccount]

25 minutes ago, THIS_IS_DILLARD said:

Solid rankings but in my opinion if any team is justified to be #9 is Dillard , Not killian. Granted our overall schedule is nothing to write home about, but neither is killian especially having them ranked that high. 
 

now I did notice Dillard went from 19-14 , but with Dillard literally being a 4th & goal away from beating the number 15th team in the NATION on their home turf holds a lot more weight in my opinion then ANY team killian has faced. 
 

if we going off wat they did last year as well, well killian was knocked out by NMB in the tru county playoffs only for NMB to be blown out by Dillard in the title game. 
 

Once again solid rankings like usual, & I’m actually okay with our #14 rankings but killian hasn’t earned the right to be that high. 
 

p.s behind STA I believe Dillard is the STRONGEST team in 7A. In my opinion NO other team will come close to beating the raiders. 

The reason Dillard rose was because they did do better offensively than I expected but I still don't see them as a top 10 team yet though Dillard played STA about what I expected but I was advised by a few SFL sources that I should move Dillard up even in the loss and after I set the precedent for doing that earlier this year it opened the door 

 

Killian did have a similar performance to Dillard against a common opponent in Miramar for what it's worth and if Dillard would have won they would have jumped into the top 5 with that win but as for Killian they are the second best team in 5A right now and probably would make final 4 if they didn't have to share a region with Miami Central

[Nulli Secundus]

11 hours ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

Statewide Rankings

 

 

1 6A Tampa Jesuit

2 7A St Thomas Aquinas

3 5A Miami Central

4 3A Chaminade Madonna

5 8A Venice

6 8A Sanford Seminole

7 4A Cocoa

8 4A Cardinal Gibbons

9 5A Miami Killian

10 7A Edgewater

11 6A Orlando Jones

12 6A Miami Northwestern

13 8A Treasure Coast

14 7A Dillard

15 7A Buchholz

16 4A Bolles

17 7A Lakeland

18 4A Gulliver Prep

19 5A American Heritage Plantation

20 3A Berkeley Prep

21 8A Western

22 7A Niceville

23 8A West Orange

24 7A Tampa Bay Tech

25 6A Naples

 

26 8A Osceola

27 4A Lakewood

28 8A Apopka

29 8A Miami Palmetto

30 8A Deerfield Beach

31 2A Champagnat Catholic

32 7A Homestead

33 3A Miami Edison

34 8A Lake Mary

35 7A Armwood

36 6A Panama City Mosley

37 6A Vanguard

38 8A Sarasota Riverview

39 8A Boone

40 8A Bartram Trail

41 8A Vero Beach

42 8A Miami Columbus

43 6A Columbia

44 6A St Augustine

45 6A Jacksonville Riverside

46 7A Lake Gibson

47 1A Madison County

48 3A Florida High

49 5A Rockledge

50 2A Jacksonville Trinity Christian

 

Remove Lakeland from the poll until further notice, LOL!

[DisabledAccount]

44 minutes ago, Nulli Secundus said:

Remove Lakeland from the poll until further notice, LOL!

Lose a few games in a row and I'll consider it

[Jesse]

12 minutes ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:

Lose a few games in a row and I'll consider it

That Columbia receiver is really good. Madco secondary needs colleges to watch them they locked him up. They been great all year.