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FHSAA JUST POSTED PLAYOFF BRACKETS


Ray Icaza

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Jesse, you need to call the FHSAA.  Obviously they screwed something up.  When I clicked on the brackets for 1A, it showed Madison as a number 3 seed.   WTF?!?!?  They don't even get a bye?   How can the number 1 team in the state be the third seed in their Class 1 region???   Forget the phone call -- head to Gainesville right now and camp outside the FHSAA offices so you can bring this miscarriage of justice to their attention first thing tomorrow morning so they can correct it.  B)

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20 minutes ago, Perspective said:

Jesse, you need to call the FHSAA.  Obviously the screwed something up.  When I clicked on the brackets for 1A, it showed Madison as a number 3 seed.   WTF?!?!?  They don't even get a bye?   How can the number 1 team in the state be the third seed in their Class 1 region???   Forget the phone call -- head to Gainesville right now and camp outside the FHSAA offices so you can bring this miscarriage of justice to their attention first thing tomorrow morning so they can correct it.  B)

It's all good the just gonna flex more 

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A couple of things caught my eye:

1. Lake Gibson/Lakeland rematch in the opening round of the playoffs.  That's epic!

2.  Chamberlain made the playoffs despite a 3-7 record.  But they won their 3-team district with a perfect 2-0 record.   Proves my earlier point with respect to Lakeland -- your first priority has to be to win your district games.  Lakeland gets its rematch, but being on the road for all playoff games could take its toll on more than just the Polk County buses. 

3.  7A Region 3 could get really interesting really fast.  So, as a few of you already have noted, Armwood's loss to Newsome Friday night, combined with its recent forfeits, ends their season.  They lost out on the final playoff spot to Largo, who finished with a .551 RPI vs. Armwood's .539.       But, Gaither's in as the 7 seed and they play Lehigh (2 seed).  And Wharton is in (as the 6 seed) playing Mitchell (as the 3 seed).   I'm not saying it will happen, but I could see Gaither and Wharton both going on the road and both coming home with wins.  In any event, with Armwood out of the way, Region 3 is there for TBT's taking. 

4.  I need some help on this last one:  I was under the impression that seeding (and therefore, home field advantage) determined the Final Four matchups (at least in 5A-8A).   But, when I look on the brackets for the large school classes, each one has the same thing for the final four:  Winner G25 vs. Winner G26 and Winner G27 vs. Winner G28).   That may just be the way the playoff template is set up, but I thought once you got the final four, it was 1 vs. 4 and 2 vs. 3, based on the RPI, that is now set in stone for all of the playoffs. 

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7 minutes ago, Perspective said:

A couple of things caught my eye:

1. Lake Gibson/Lakeland rematch in the opening round of the playoffs.  That's epic!

2.  Chamberlain made the playoffs despite a 3-7 record.  But they won their 3-team district with a perfect 2-0 record.   Proves my earlier point with respect to Lakeland -- your first priority has to be to win your district games.  Lakeland gets its rematch, but being on the road for all playoff games could take its toll on more than just the Polk County buses. 

3.  7A Region 3 could get really interesting really fast.  So, as a few of you already have noted, Armwood's loss to Newsome Friday night, combined with its recent forfeits, ends their season.  They lost out on the final playoff spot to Largo, who finished with a .551 RPI vs. Armwood's .539.       But, Gaither's in as the 7 seed and they play Lehigh (2 seed).  And Wharton is in (as the 6 seed) playing Mitchell (as the 3 seed).   I'm not saying it will happen, but I could see Gaither and Wharton both going on the road and both coming home with wins.  In any event, with Armwood out of the way, Region 3 is there for TBT's taking. 

4.  I need some help on this last one:  I was under the impression that seeding (and therefore, home field advantage) determined the Final Four matchups (at least in 5A-8A).   But, when I look on the brackets for the large school classes, each one has the same thing for the final four:  Winner G25 vs. Winner G26 and Winner G27 vs. Winner G28).   That may just be the way the playoff template is set up, but I thought once you got the final four, it was 1 vs. 4 and 2 vs. 3, based on the RPI, that is now set in stone for all of the playoffs. 

5. And do they continue to recalculate the RPI after each round of the playoffs??  If so, that could also change home field advantage from the playoff template.

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58 minutes ago, Perspective said:

A couple of things caught my eye:

4.  I need some help on this last one:  I was under the impression that seeding (and therefore, home field advantage) determined the Final Four matchups (at least in 5A-8A).   But, when I look on the brackets for the large school classes, each one has the same thing for the final four:  Winner G25 vs. Winner G26 and Winner G27 vs. Winner G28).   That may just be the way the playoff template is set up, but I thought once you got the final four, it was 1 vs. 4 and 2 vs. 3, based on the RPI, that is now set in stone for all of the playoffs. 

Very good observation. It is likely that the final four brackets as set up will change for several classifications. 

49 minutes ago, Ray Icaza said:

5. And do they continue to recalculate the RPI after each round of the playoffs??  If so, that could also change home field advantage from the playoff template.

Probably not in most cases, but certainly possible. 

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4 hours ago, Ray Icaza said:

5. And do they continue to recalculate the RPI after each round of the playoffs??  If so, that could also change home field advantage from the playoff template.

I think the district champs, no matter their RPI or record, always host a non-district champ. Lakeland actually edged out Edgewater for the top RPI in 7A, Region 2. But, it won't do any good unless a major upset happens. Lakeland did get many more true road games in this season than most seasons. So, they won't be in unknown territory. But, obviously there are advantages to playing at home for the home team, no matter whether the road team is rattled or not. 

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17 hours ago, skyway said:

I think the district champs, no matter their RPI or record, always host a non-district champ. Lakeland actually edged out Edgewater for the top RPI in 7A, Region 2. But, it won't do any good unless a major upset happens. Lakeland did get many more true road games in this season than most seasons. So, they won't be in unknown territory. But, obviously there are advantages to playing at home for the home team, no matter whether the road team is rattled or not. 

Not disagreeing with you, but you need an additional mechanism as by the 3rd round you could easily have 2 district champs and then what.  That's why I always like the formula where in even years top of bracket home and odd years it goes to the bottom type formula.  It takes the bias out and even if it isn't in your favor at times it is deemed fair.

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17 hours ago, Ray Icaza said:

5. And do they continue to recalculate the RPI after each round of the playoffs??  If so, that could also change home field advantage from the playoff template.

Ray, I could be wrong, but I think the RPI's are now set in stone and they will not change at this point.  

And I think Skyway's correct that a district champ would host a non-district champ, even if the non-district champ has a higher RPI than the district champ, but I'll need to look that one up to confirm.  Obviously, that's a pretty rare situation. 

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36 minutes ago, Perspective said:

Ray, I could be wrong, but I think the RPI's are now set in stone and they will not change at this point.  

And I think Skyway's correct that a district champ would host a non-district champ, even if the non-district champ has a higher RPI than the district champ, but I'll need to look that one up to confirm.  Obviously, that's a pretty rare situation. 

So, it looks like we may have gotten it somewhat right. 

The teams are seeded for regional play, with the district winners getting the top four seeds (based on RPI) and the four wildcards (or "at large qualifiers") getting seeds 5-8, based on their respective RPI's.   The "higher" (with 1 being the highest) seed hosts through the regional finals.  So at least in the regional portion of the playoffs, a district winner always hosts a non-district winner, regardless of RPI (because they would have the higher seed). 

When it comes time for the state semifinals (i.e., the final four), the regional seeding goes out the window and the four remaining teams in each region are re-seeded 1 though 4, again, based on their regular-season RPI.  1 plays 4 and 2 plays 3.  This also determines which two teams in each class host the semifinal games (seeds 1 and 2, based on the reseeding, host).  In theory, a district runner-up, such as Lakeland, could win their region playing nothing but road games, but then host the state semifinal game against a district winner because Lakeland has a better RPI today than two of the other teams in the semifinals.  However, if the number one seeds from each region advance, Lakeland would still be on the road, as those teams (TBT, STA and Buchholz) are the only three teams in 7A that have higher RPI's than Lakeland. 

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Still prefer the alternating home games every other year, otherwise the perennially strong teams then get to host almost every year to make them even harder to unseat. They already load up with talent and you reward that by giving them home field to boot.   Plus local fans get to enjoy playoffs at home every other year and I would think they would be in favor of that, for what it's worth.

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21 minutes ago, Ray Icaza said:

Still prefer the alternating home games every other year, otherwise the perennially strong teams then get to host almost every year to make them even harder to unseat. They already load up with talent and you reward that by giving them home field to boot.   Plus local fans get to enjoy playoffs at home every other year and I would think they would be in favor of that, for what it's worth.

Agree 100! 

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Regarding the effectiveness of RPI when it comes to ranking, home field, basically assuming a higher RPI means a better team I wonder especially in the higher classifications what the W-L record will show after the first round.  If this tool was relatively accurate you would think 80-90% of the winners would have the higher RPI and I am curious to what that result will show.  If the number is lower, like in the 60-70% range that would be tangible proof the mathematical formula is flawed.  We shall see.

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Check out 7A Region 1….Buchholz is the top seed and plays Fleming Island who is the #8 seed. Niceville is the #3 seed and host Atlantic Coast who is the #6 seed.

 

Fleming Island & Atlantic Coast both finished 6-4 overall but Fleming Island finished district play at 3-2 while Atlantic Coast finished at 2-3. Fleming Island also BEAT Atlantic head to head. So #1 seed Buchholz is playing a tougher opponent than #3 seed Niceville lol. 

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10 hours ago, AmstaffNole said:

Check out 7A Region 1….Buchholz is the top seed and plays Fleming Island who is the #8 seed. Niceville is the #3 seed and host Atlantic Coast who is the #6 seed.

 

Fleming Island & Atlantic Coast both finished 6-4 overall but Fleming Island finished district play at 3-2 while Atlantic Coast finished at 2-3. Fleming Island also BEAT Atlantic head to head. So #1 seed Buchholz is playing a tougher opponent than #3 seed Niceville lol. 

Yet, from a ranking standpoint, Atlantic Coast's RPI (156) is over 50 points better than Fleming Island's RPI (209).  So, hard to tell who's the tougher opponent (but I'll give the nod to Fleming because they won the head-to-head match-up). 

Looks like 2021 was a crazy year for 7A, District 3.  The district winner (Fletcher) went 5-5, but 4 of its 5 wins were in district games.  It's only district loss was to Ponte Vedra, who finished the season with a losing record.  As far as RPI ranking goes, Fletcher comes in at 259.   I imagine it's the highest (i.e. worst) RPI's for district winners in 7A (perhaps any class).  Yet, District 3 was able to fill 3 of the 4 wildcard spots in 7A Region 1 with Nease (RPI 160), Fleming Island and Atlantic Coast.  Because they don't play each other in any of the four region 1 playoff games, District 3 could go 4-0.  Or they could go 0-4.   Given the way the season has gone for this district, 2-2 might be the safer bet.  

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The way RPI works, you could load your non-district schedule with powder puffs, go 0-3 in your district, but still make the playoffs with a 7-3 record since RPI heavily weights wins.  It seems like they need to make adjustments to the selection process.  You should never get into the playoffs over a team that finished ahead of you in your district, for example.  I also hate seeing some districts over rewarded for being in a weak geographic area, thus higher RPI due to easy out of district wins like 5A district 9 which got 4 (!) teams into the playoffs.  I would bet my life that only Zephyrhills makes it past round 1 out of those four teams and that's just because Zephyrhills plays another team that benefitted its RPI from winning a bunch of game against weak competition, Gibbs HS.  

In short, the RPI rewards wins vs weak competition.  Yes it does factor in the opponents record and opponents opponents record, but in the end, a win vs an 0-10 team counts more towards your RPI than a close loss to a 10-0 nationally ranked team.  That's ridiculous.

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If I have understood the RPI formula properly as detailed by Perspective, it also gives the same weight 35% to your opponents won loss record so loading up on weak teams would bite you on that part of the formula.  In any event, I do agree that it can produce undeserving teams to get in but that is true with other formulas.  Another poster, possibly Columbia and others pointed out early on biggest flaw is 3 team districts.  I never studied it enough to realize they existed, but after they pointed that out it is clear that is a fixable problem and should be addressed by the FHSAA.  If districts had a minimum of 6 teams and preferably 7 it would level the playing field and then have only a couple of wildcards per region get in based on an RPI type value.

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5 hours ago, Ray Icaza said:

If I have understood the RPI formula properly as detailed by Perspective, it also gives the same weight 35% to your opponents won loss record so loading up on weak teams would bite you on that part of the formula.  In any event, I do agree that it can produce undeserving teams to get in but that is true with other formulas.  Another poster, possibly Columbia and others pointed out early on biggest flaw is 3 team districts.  I never studied it enough to realize they existed, but after they pointed that out it is clear that is a fixable problem and should be addressed by the FHSAA.  If districts had a minimum of 6 teams and preferably 7 it would level the playing field and then have only a couple of wildcards per region get in based on an RPI type value.

I had the wrong formula.  I stand corrected and feel a bit foolish for my rants.  The formula I had in my mind was 50% your win percentage vs the actual 35%.  Looking at the 35%-35%-30% model, there is still a fatal flaw with it.  A 70 point loss to a 10-0 team is the same RPI as a 1 pt loss to a 10-0 team.  Similarly, a 10-0 team that dominates a weak region typically gets whupped in the playoffs when they run into the south FL teams that have worse records because they beat up on each other.  I totally get they cant have something overly complicated that involves a staff of statisticians nor can they add in win margin which would encourage running up the scores.  I actually thought the old way of district winner plus runner up was good and very clear what you had to do to get into the playoffs.  Nobody now has a clear picture of what they have to do to make the playoffs other than win your district which sucks if youre stuck in the same district as a perennial monster team that recruits.  Your team may never get to the playoffs.

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