STATE SEMIFINALS PREVIEW: A look at tonight’s games in all nine classifications with predictions

With the state semifinals slated tonight around the Sunshine State, 18 teams will punch their tickets to play for state championships over the next two weeks between host sites Tallahassee for Classes 1M, 1S, 1R, and 2S and Fort Lauderdale for Classes 4M, 3M, 2M, 4S, and 3S. Here is a preview of all 18 games slated to take place along with predictions for every game.

Seeding numbers reflect the seed number each team received after the reseeding took place for the state semifinals by the FHSAA.

CLASS 4M

No. 4 Ocoee (9-4) vs. No. 1 Columbus (Miami) (12-1), at Tropical Park, 7 PM – This matchup will feature two solid defenses but when looking at and comparing the strength of schedule between the two teams, Columbus is further ahead along with this being their fifth straight state semifinal appearance outside of the 2020 season during COVID-19. Look for the Explorers to advance on to the Class 4M State Championship in about two weeks’ time in Fort Lauderdale. With this information in hand, this could be a very difficult challenge for Ocoee to overcome against host Columbus. PREDICTION: Columbus 38, Ocoee 20

No. 3 Apopka (10-3) at No. 2 Palm Beach Central (Wellington) (11-1), 7 PM – Before this season Palm Beach Central had only been to the Regional Finals twice in school history (2018, 2021) while Apopka has been to the state semifinals for the third time since 2019. The Blue Darters have a lot more experience when it comes to playing in games like this and that experience is very important to keep in mind as they were a state runner-up in 2021 will lend to a victory on the road with a defense that has been playing lights out here during the playoffs. PREDICTION: Apopka 27, Palm Beach Central 14

CLASS 3M

No. 4 Jesuit (Tampa) (9-3) at No. 1 St. Thomas Aquinas (Fort Lauderdale) (12-0), 7 PM – The Tigers and Raiders meet again for the second time in two years, but this time with a spot in the Class 3M state championship on the line. With both teams being the defending state champions, someone will have to see the dream of repeating come to an end. Given the environment at St. Thomas Aquinas is hostile and hard for visiting teams to come in and win at, the advantage is going to the Raiders despite the visiting Tigers finally coming together strong here late in the season and during the regional playoffs. PREDICTION: St. Thomas Aquinas 35, Jesuit 17

No. 3 Homestead (10-2) at No. 2 Jones (Orlando) (11-1), 7 PM – Homestead has never been this far in school history so this trip to Jones is a historic trip for them. For the host Tigers, were in the state semifinals last year and lost in overtime to Pine Forest (Pensacola) in Class 6A. This time things should be very much different given Jones thrashed Region 1 No. 1 seed in Edgewater (Orlando) last week, but the Tigers should keep in mind that the Broncos are part of that South Florida wave of teams with plenty of talent like they have as well. PREDICTION: Jones 38, Homestead 21

CLASS 2M

No. 4 Lakewood (St. Petersburg) (8-4) vs. No. 1 Miami Central (12-0) at Traz Powell, 7:30 PM – Lakewood is back in the state semifinals for the second straight year and this time faces a more daunting task of going up against who are nationally rank with SBLive and High School Football America (where they are currently No. 1) in Miami Central. The Rockets have been tested a few times this year and have been on the brink of their first loss. Lakewood has tested itself this year with several losses to teams from South Florida including two teams in the state semifinals Palm Beach Central and Homestead accounting for two of the losses. At the end of the day, it is a tough out to play at Traz Powell for a visiting team, and for the host Rockets, they should win and move on to the state championship game in two weeks in Fort Lauderdale. Read more on Lakewood reaching the state semifinals here from SBLive Florida. PREDICTION: Miami Central 37, Lakewood 24

No. 3 Bolles (Jacksonville (9-4) at No. 2 American Heritage (Plantation) (12-1), 7:30 PM – This is an intriguing matchup as these teams have faced each other in the past. However, Bolles was helped through the way the Region 1 bracket played out. However, playing on the road, hours away from home, will be a tough task against the host Patriots. The Patriots have been rolling with a high-powered offense and a defense that is almost like a brick wall in most games. If the Bulldogs can somehow get past the Patriots, the challenge for a state championship would be even tougher with Miami Central the most likely opponent sitting there. At the end of the day, the Patriots are the favorite here and should be able to handle the Bulldogs here in this one to play in the state championship game in their own backyard in two weeks. Read more about American Heritage’s bid for a chance to play for a state title here from SBLive Florida. PREDICTION: American Heritage 42, Bolles 14

CLASS 1M

No. 4 True North (Miami) (9-3) at No. 1 Chaminade-Madonna (Hollywood) (11-0), 7 PM – This is a total mismatch on paper with True North advancing out of the very weak Region 4 while Chaminade taking care of business against Cardinal Newman (West Palm Beach)  This Is the visiting Titans first trip to the state semifinals in program history while Chaminade-Madonna is now seeking a seventh straight trip to a state championship game having won four state championships dating back to 2017. If anything, this game will be over quicker than any other game in the state semifinals just given how cohesive the host Lions have been all season long. PREDICTION: Chaminade-Madonna 62, True North 7

No. 3 Clearwater Central Catholic (11-1) at No. 2 University Christian (Jacksonville) (11-1), 7 PM – The host Fighting Christians beat Trinity Christian (Jacksonville) for the first time in 30 years last week in the Region 1 final and that has given them a huge boost of confidence in looking to reach the state championship game for the first time in two years. That win over the Conquerors last week also avenged University Christian’s only loss of the season. However, Clearwater Central Catholic has been a much more thorough team and has played what we believe is a much tougher schedule that includes two teams that have reached the state semifinals in Jesuit (Tampa) and Trinity Catholic (Ocala). Trinity Catholic is the only team that the visiting Marauders have lost to. University Christian is a run-first program and that could be limited given the fact Clearwater Central Catholic’s defense has been a force this season and has gotten stronger as the season has progressed. PREDICTION: Clearwater Central Catholic 34, University Christian 20

CLASS 4S

No. 4 Osceola (Kissimmee) (10-3) vs. No. 1 Lakeland (12-0) at Bryant Stadium, 7:30 PM – This is going to be a treat for football fans to watch this game as this is a rematch from Week 4 where the host Dreadnaughts beat the Kowboys, 25-22. Lakeland has easily handled its playoff opponents in the Region 2 bracket while Osceola had some close calls in the Region 3 bracket, defeating DeLand by only two points in the regional quarterfinals, and Treasure Coast by three points in the regional semifinals. Only last week did the Kowboys have a convincing victory with a 31-7 victory over No. 1 Vero Beach in the regional final. While expectations say this should be a close game given historically how these teams have played each other, the other side says Lakeland is more polished as a team that knows a trip to Fort Lauderdale in two weeks is just four quarters away from them. You can read more on a preview from SBLive Florida here. PREDICTION: Lakeland 35, Osceola 17

No. 3 Buchholz (Gainesville) (10-2) at No. 2 Venice (8-3), 7:30 PM – This is a toss-up game after Buchholz shockingly pulled the upset on No. 1 seed in Region 1, Bartram Trail 21-10 to advance the Bobcats to their second straight semifinal. If anything, the Bobcats are playing some of their best football right now while Venice has been a hard team to figure out during the season with losses to St. Frances Academy out of Maryland and Clearwater Academy International while having a close win against Riverview (Sarasota) in the regular season. It should also be noted that the opponents that the Indians have faced in the regional bracket in Region 4 had much weaker schedules compared to that of the visiting Bobcats. If the Indians come in thinking they will roll the Bobcats, their season will end here, and given how we have seen things from time to time with Venice, Buchholz has a legitimate chance to end Venice’s season here in the state semifinals. PREDICTION: Buchholz 28, Venice 24

CLASS 3S

No. 4 Columbia (Lake City) (9-3) vs. No. 1 Lake Wales (13-0) at Legion Field, 7 PM – Columbia is in its first state semifinal appearance since 2015 where they lost to Viera in this round and Lake Wales is making its first state semifinal appearance since 2013 where they lost to American Heritage (Plantation). Legion Field is a tough place to play for any team that is coming in and visiting, but Lake Wales has not faced a team this season like Columbia that played six teams that reached the playoffs in 2022 including two playing in the state semifinals in Buchholz (Gainesville) and Union County (Lake Butler) whereas none of the five teams that made the playoffs from the host Highlanders’ schedule reached the state semifinals. That alone lends a lot to the Tigers who struggled with consistency early on in the season but have since found their way here by putting together complete games despite all the challenges thrown at them including last week’s overtime game against Choctawhatchee (Fort Walton Beach) in the Region 1 final. I think in the end this will be a very close matchup between the visiting Tigers and the host Highlanders with Columbia playing in their first state championship game since 1997. PREDICTION: Columbia 24, Lake Wales 21

No. 3 Mainland (Daytona Beach) (10-3) at No. 2 Dunbar (Fort Myers) (10-1), 7:30 PM – For the host Tigers, this is their first trip to the state semifinals in program history while the visiting Buccaneers are back in the state semifinals for the first time since 2014 when they lost to eventual Class 6A state champion, Miami Central that year. This matchup is a toss-up because while Mainland has fought some battles this year on the field, Dunbar is representing a huge community in the Fort Myers area that has battled a lot on and off the field, especially with the region still recovering from Hurricane Ian. The Tigers played stout football last week against the No. 1 seed in Region 4 in Naples and their stunning win over the Golden Eagles has propelled the Tigers to new heights. For Mainland, they have been playing consistently well here in the playoffs easily taking down the No. 2 seed in Region 3, Jensen Beach last week while handling region No. 1 seed, Rockledge in the regional semifinals the week before. Overall, expect this game to be a fun one, but the advantage is going to be in Dunbar’s favor. Read more on Dunbar and how they want to keep winning for the community here from SBLive Florida. PREDICTION: Dunbar 27, Mainland 20

CLASS 2S

No. 4 Bishop Verot (Fort Myers) (10-2) at No. 1 Florida High (Tallahassee) (13-0), 7:30 PM – The visiting Vikings have not played in a state semifinal game since 1994 and have not been to a state championship game since that year where they lost to Union County (Lake Butler) who was on the start of an impressive tear of 52-wins that took place between 1994 and 1997. For the host Seminoles, they are in their second straight state semifinal and third overall in the last four years. With this being a long road trip for the Vikings and playing a Florida High team that has gotten better over the course of the season, this will be a tall order of a challenge to overcome if they want to make a return trip to Tallahassee next week for the Class 2S State Championship. PREDICTION: Florida High 31, Bishop Verot 20

No. 3 Cocoa (9-3) at Bradford (12-1), 7:30 PM – Bradford is in the state semifinal for the first since 2004 while Cocoa is in an unprecedented 16^th straight state semifinal. The fact the visiting Tigers have been in the state semifinals this many times in a row is unheard of. For the host Tornadoes, they are looking to play in their first state title game since 1985 while the visiting Tigers are looking to play in their eighth overall state championship game dating all the way back to 2008. Cocoa, who finished the 2021 season last year as the Class 4A state runner-up, had a lot of firepower on both offense and defense and played one of the toughest schedules in the state with two of their three losses coming to Jones (Orlando) and St. Thomas Aquinas (Fort Lauderdale), both Class 3M teams and playing in the state semifinals as well this week. For Bradford, the only team they lost to this season in Suwannee (Live Oak) was knocked out last week and had to fight hard in a come-from-behind victory over Baker County (Glen St. Mary) last week. Throw out the seeding numbers in this game as the Tornadoes will be the considerable underdog in this one. PREDICTION: Cocoa 35, Bradford 20

CLASS 1S

No. 4 Munroe Day (Quincy) (6-6) at No. 1 First Baptist (Naples) (8-2), 7:30 PM – The visiting Bobcats are in the first state semifinal appearance in school history and have a daunting task ahead of making a long road trip all the way to Naples to take on the Lions who are in their second straight state semifinal and third overall in school history. Both teams have played some competitive teams this season, however, Munroe Day was able to avenge an earlier regular season and district loss to North Florida Christian in the Region 1 final. For the host Lions, easily dispatched Moore Haven last week in the Region 4 final and have been riding high on a high-powered offense that has dominated teams throughout the season. The only two losses for the Lions have come on the road at Chardon, Ohio in overtime and against Pahokee. Look for the Lions to be in Tallahassee in the Class 1S State Championship game next week. Read more on First Baptist and their coaching continuity heading into the game from SBLive Florida here. PREDICTION: First Baptist 38, Munroe Day 21

No. 3 John Carroll (Fort Pierce) (10-1) at No. 2 Trinity Catholic (Ocala) (8-2), 7:30 PM – Trinity Catholic is in their first state semifinal in two seasons while John Carroll has not played in the state semifinals since 2004 where they lost to Pahokee. With the visiting Golden Rams looking for their first trip to a state championship game and the Celtics looking for their first trip to state since winning it all in Class 2B in 2010, both teams are going to be fired up and looking to make a statement in this one. While neither team has ever faced each other in the playoffs in years prior, you might as well throw all of that out as both teams have been delivering plays on both sides of the ball all season long. One of the host Celtics’ two losses came at the hands of Florida High (Tallahassee) who is playing in the state semifinals this week as well and that alone should give the Celtics an edge along with the home-field advantage of playing a stronger schedule overall. PREDICTION: Trinity Catholic 31, John Carroll 24

CLASS 1R

No. 4 Blountstown (9-4) at No. 1 Hawthorne (10-0), 7:30 PM – The host Hornets are in the state semifinals for the third straight, the fourth time in the last six years and for the fifth time overall in school history while the visiting Tigers are in their first state semifinal appearance since 2019 when the Tigers reached the state championship game that year before falling to eventual champion Madison County. Now this game has had some controversy surrounding it after some complaints were lodged by Pahokee who lost 21-20 to the host Hornets last week. That led to the game almost being moved to Citizens Field about 25 minutes away in Gainesville, but after the Alachua County School District and the school worked with FHSAA to reassure them they would put additional measures in place for this week’s state semifinal game, the game will be played at Annie Mae Phillips Stadium in Hawthorne with head coach Cornelius Ingram sending out a message after things were locked in place to host the game at home. When looking at the teams and comparing the schedules Hawthorne has played more teams that reached the playoffs in 2022 compared to Blountstown including Union County (Lake Butler) which is playing in the state semifinals while Blountstown played Port St. Joe three times which accounts for two of their nine wins on the schedule, but also lost to Northview (Century) who is playing in the other Class 1R state semifinal this week. Overall, with the way things have transpired over the last week in Hawthorne like has the Hornets fired up to get to the state championship game for the third straight year in this one. PREDICTION: Hawthorne 30, Blountstown 20

No. 3 Union County (Lake Butler) (8-2) at No. 2 Northview (Century) (12-0), 7 PM CT – The only game taking place in the Central Time Zone this week, this game will feature two highly competitive teams that have played some tough games this season. For the visiting Tigers, two of the teams they have played on their schedule are also playing in the state semifinals this week with Columbia (Lake City) and Hawthorne. Union County beat Columbia for the first time in over 90 years this year back in Week 2 Union County was close to defeating Hawthorne but saw the lead slip away in the fourth quarter in that game back in Week 8. For the host Chiefs, this is their first trip to the state semifinals since winning the Class 1A state championship in 2012. The Chiefs defeated Blountstown who advanced to the state semifinals this week during the regular season. The biggest factors in this game come down to the visiting Tigers having to make a nearly 6-hour trip to the Panhandle in this one with a time zone change and the fact this is a home-field advantage for the Chiefs who are part of long history and tradition of teams dating back to the Ernest Ward (Walnut Hill) and Century High days which were later merged to form Northview High. PREDICTION: Northview 34, Union County 21