FLORIDA POWER RANKINGS INDEX: Complete 2026 Flag Football State Championship Probability Rankings &#8211; All Playoff-Eligible T

EDITOR'S NOTE (Updated February 6, 2026): This article has been updated to correct a calculation error affecting Stoneman Douglas (Parkland) and several other teams, primarily in South Florida. This correction has also impacted state championship probabilities and some regional rankings. We apologize for the error and have implemented additional verification steps to prevent similar issues in the future.

Season Ticket subscribers get the complete state championship probability breakdown for every playoff-eligible Florida flag football team. Below are the state championship probabilities for all teams ranked by their chance of winning a state title prior to the start of the 2026 season.

Rankings are calculated using the Florida Power Rankings Index's rating system, strength of schedule analysis, district placement, and playoff bracket simulations. Teams can reach the playoffs by winning their district tournament OR qualifying as an at-large selection based on overall performance.

Note: Independent teams are not eligible for FHSAA playoffs and therefore do not have championship probabilities.

Rank School Class Region State Championship Probability 1 Robinson (Tampa) 2A Tampa Bay 33.6% 2 Wildwood 1A North Central Florida 33.0% 3 Miami Edison 1A South Florida 33.0% 4 Seminole Ridge (Westlake) 3A South Florida 32.8% 5 Alonso (Tampa) 4A Tampa Bay 32.5% 6 Homestead 3A South Florida 23.4% 7 Wellington 4A South Florida 23.0% 8 Pace 3A Panhandle 21.7% 9 Western (Davie) 4A South Florida 20.2% 10 Fort Pierce Central 4A Space & Treasure Coast 19.9% 11 Lennard (Ruskin) 4A Tampa Bay 18.4% 12 Choctawhatchee (Fort Walton Beach) 2A Panhandle 18.3% 13 Somerset Canyons (Boynton Beach) 1A South Florida 18.1% 14 Miami Palmetto 4A South Florida 18.0% 15 Chiles (Tallahassee) 3A Panhandle 18.0% 16 St. Thomas Aquinas (Fort Lauderdale) 3A South Florida 17.9% 17 Florida High (Tallahassee) 1A Panhandle 17.0% 18 Bradford (Starke) 1A North Central Florida 14.7% 19 Boyd Anderson (Lauderdale Lakes) 3A South Florida 12.9% 20 Spruce Creek (Port Orange) 4A Central Florida 12.7% 21 Clay (Green Cove Springs) 2A Northeast Florida 12.3% 22 Steinbrenner (Lutz) 4A Tampa Bay 12.1% 23 Belleview 3A North Central Florida 11.6% 24 Apopka 4A Central Florida 11.5% 25 Palm Beach Gardens 4A South Florida 10.9% 26 Haines City 4A Tampa Bay 10.9% 27 Stoneman Douglas (Parkland) 4A South Florida 10.1% 28 Oviedo 3A Central Florida 10.1% 29 Spanish River (Boca Raton) 4A South Florida 9.8% 30 Fleming Island 3A Northeast Florida 9.7% 31 Tampa Catholic 1A Tampa Bay 9.7% 32 Dr. Joaquin Garcia (Lake Worth) 2A South Florida 9.5% 33 Timber Creek (Orlando) 4A Central Florida 9.2% 34 East Lake (Tarpon Springs) 3A Tampa Bay 8.8% 35 Harmony 4A Central Florida 8.2% 36 Ferguson (Miami) 4A South Florida 8.1% 37 Mater Lakes (Hialeah) 2A South Florida 7.9% 38 Horizon (Winter Garden) 4A Central Florida 7.8% 39 Celebration 4A Central Florida 7.7% 40 Miami Southridge 3A South Florida 7.6% 41 Fletcher (Neptune Beach) 3A Northeast Florida 7.5% 42 North Fort Myers 3A Southwest Florida 7.3% 43 Martin County (Stuart) 3A Space & Treasure Coast 7.1% 44 Hernando (Brooksville) 2A Tampa Bay 6.9% 45 University Christian (Jacksonville) 1A Northeast Florida 6.6% 46 Land O Lakes 3A Tampa Bay 6.2% 47 St. Petersburg 2A Tampa Bay 6.1% 48 East Bay (Gibsonton) 3A Tampa Bay 6.0% 49 Keswick Christian (St. Petersburg) 1A Tampa Bay 6.0% 50 Posnack (Davie) 1A South Florida 5.9% 51 Pembroke Pines Charter 3A South Florida 5.6% 52 Miami Norland 2A South Florida 5.1% 53 Miami Northwestern 2A South Florida 5.1% 54 Hialeah Gardens 4A South Florida 5.0% 55 Newsome (Lithia) 4A Tampa Bay 5.0% 56 Springstead (Spring Hill) 3A Tampa Bay 4.9% 57 Trinity Catholic (Ocala) 1A North Central Florida 4.7% 58 Weeki Wachee 2A Tampa Bay 4.6% 59 Ponte Vedra 3A Northeast Florida 4.6% 60 Ed White (Jacksonville) 2A Northeast Florida 4.6% 61 Riverdale (Fort Myers) 3A Southwest Florida 4.5% 62 Navarre 3A Panhandle 4.5% 63 Stanton (Jacksonville) 2A Northeast Florida 4.5% 64 Park Vista (Lake Worth) 4A South Florida 4.4% 65 SLAM (Miami) 1A South Florida 4.3% 66 Jensen Beach 2A Space & Treasure Coast 4.3% 67 Parrish 3A Southwest Florida 4.3% 68 Bloomingdale (Valrico) 4A Tampa Bay 4.1% 69 George Jenkins (Lakeland) 4A Tampa Bay 4.1% 70 Doral Academy 4A South Florida 4.1% 71 Buchholz (Gainesville) 3A North Central Florida 4.0% 72 True North (Miami) 1A South Florida 3.8% 73 Everglades (Miramar) 3A South Florida 3.8% 74 Nature Coast (Brooksville) 2A Tampa Bay 3.8% 75 Niceville 3A Panhandle 3.8% 76 Paxon (Jacksonville) 2A Northeast Florida 3.7% 77 Santa Fe (Alachua) 1A North Central Florida 3.6% 78 West Orange (Winter Garden) 4A Central Florida 3.6% 79 Piper (Sunrise) 4A South Florida 3.6% 80 South Fork (Stuart) 3A Space & Treasure Coast 3.6% 81 Mater Academy (Hialeah Gardens) 3A South Florida 3.5% 82 New Smyrna Beach 2A Central Florida 3.4% 83 Suwannee (Live Oak) 1A North Central Florida 3.4% 84 Jones (Orlando) 2A Central Florida 2.9% 85 Strawberry Crest (Dover) 4A Tampa Bay 2.8% 86 Osceola (Seminole) 2A Tampa Bay 2.8% 87 Lake Howell (Winter Park) 3A Central Florida 2.7% 88 Sumner (Riverview) 4A Tampa Bay 2.6% 89 Lecanto 2A Tampa Bay 2.6% 90 Monsignor Pace (Miami) 1A South Florida 2.5% 91 Lake Minneola 3A Central Florida 2.4% 92 Chaminade-Madonna (Hollywood) 1A South Florida 2.3% 93 DeLand 4A Central Florida 2.3% 94 Lakewood Ranch (Bradenton) 4A Southwest Florida 2.3% 95 Auburndale 3A Tampa Bay 2.3% 96 Estero 2A Southwest Florida 2.2% 97 Nova (Davie) 3A South Florida 2.1% 98 Bartram Trail (St. Johns) 3A Northeast Florida 2.1% 99 Mandarin (Jacksonville) 4A Northeast Florida 2.0% 100 Palm Harbor University 4A Tampa Bay 2.0% 101 Lincoln (Tallahassee) 3A Panhandle 2.0% 102 Hillsborough (Tampa) 2A Tampa Bay 1.9% 103 SEED School (Miami Lakes) 1A South Florida 1.9% 104 Deltona 2A Central Florida 1.9% 105 Oxbridge Academy (West Palm Beach) 1A South Florida 1.8% 106 Mount Dora 2A Central Florida 1.8% 107 Jupiter 4A South Florida 1.8% 108 Dunedin 1A Tampa Bay 1.8% 109 Gateway (Kissimmee) 2A Central Florida 1.8% 110 Manatee (Bradenton) 3A Southwest Florida 1.8% 111 St. Cloud 4A Central Florida 1.7% 112 Tarpon Springs 1A Tampa Bay 1.7% 113 Forest (Ocala) 4A North Central Florida 1.7% 114 Seabreeze (Daytona Beach) 2A Central Florida 1.6% 115 Dr. Phillips (Orlando) 4A Central Florida 1.6% 116 Braddock (Miami) 3A South Florida 1.6% 117 John Carroll (Fort Pierce) 1A Space & Treasure Coast 1.6% 118 Fort Pierce Westwood 3A Space & Treasure Coast 1.5% 119 Davenport 4A Central Florida 1.5% 120 Freedom (Orlando) 4A Central Florida 1.5% 121 Dillard (Fort Lauderdale) 2A South Florida 1.5% 122 Plant (Tampa) 4A Tampa Bay 1.5% 123 Goleman (Miami) 4A South Florida 1.5% 124 Lakeland 3A Tampa Bay 1.4% 125 Cypress Bay (Weston) 4A South Florida 1.4% 126 Atlantic (Port Orange) 1A Central Florida 1.3% 127 Northeast (St. Petersburg) 2A Tampa Bay 1.3% 128 Carrollwood (Tampa) 1A Tampa Bay 1.2% 129 Hebrew Academy (Miami Beach) 1A South Florida 1.2% 130 Bishop Verot (Fort Myers) 2A Southwest Florida 1.2% 131 Deerfield Beach 3A South Florida 1.1% 132 Booker T. Washington (Pensacola) 2A Panhandle 1.1% 133 Windermere 4A Central Florida 1.1% 134 TERRA Institute (Miami) 2A South Florida 1.1% 135 Fort Walton Beach 2A Panhandle 1.0% 136 Coral Gables 4A South Florida 1.0% 137 South Plantation 3A South Florida 1.0% 138 Gateway Charter (Fort Myers) 3A Southwest Florida 1.0% 139 Atlantic (Delray Beach) 3A South Florida 0.9% 140 Bishop Moore (Orlando) 2A Central Florida 0.9% 141 Winter Park 4A Central Florida 0.9% 142 Bonita Springs 2A Southwest Florida 0.9% 143 Dr. Krop (Miami) 3A South Florida 0.9% 144 Cypress Creek (Orlando) 4A Central Florida 0.9% 145 Somerset Academy (Pembroke Pines) 2A South Florida 0.8% 146 Sandalwood (Jacksonville) 4A Northeast Florida 0.8% 147 Pinecrest Glades (Miami) 1A South Florida 0.8% 148 Mariner (Cape Coral) 3A Southwest Florida 0.8% 149 Palm Beach Central (Wellington) 4A South Florida 0.8% 150 Pompano Beach 2A South Florida 0.8% 151 Gibbs (St. Petersburg) 1A Tampa Bay 0.8% 152 Coral Glades (Coral Springs) 4A South Florida 0.8% 153 American (Hialeah) 2A South Florida 0.8% 154 Fort Myers 3A Southwest Florida 0.8% 155 Sunlake (Land O'Lakes) 3A Tampa Bay 0.7% 156 Boone (Orlando) 4A Central Florida 0.6% 157 Citrus (Inverness) 2A Tampa Bay 0.6% 158 Ocoee 4A Central Florida 0.6% 159 Brandon 2A Tampa Bay 0.6% 160 Ridgeview (Orange Park) 2A Northeast Florida 0.6% 161 Oakleaf (Orange Park) 4A Northeast Florida 0.6% 162 Orangewood Christian (Maitland) 1A Central Florida 0.6% 163 Monarch (Coconut Creek) 4A South Florida 0.6% 164 Treasure Coast (Port St. Lucie) 4A Space & Treasure Coast 0.6% 165 East River (Orlando) 3A Central Florida 0.6% 166 Colonial (Orlando) 4A Central Florida 0.5% 167 Tampa Bay Tech 3A Tampa Bay 0.5% 168 Crescent City 1A North Central Florida 0.5% 169 Ida Baker (Cape Coral) 3A Southwest Florida 0.5% 170 Mainland (Daytona Beach) 3A Central Florida 0.5% 171 Seffner Christian 1A Tampa Bay 0.5% 172 Pine Ridge (Deltona) 2A Central Florida 0.5% 173 Winthrop (Riverview) 1A Tampa Bay 0.5% 174 Godby (Tallahassee) 2A Panhandle 0.5% 175 Lyman (Longwood) 3A Central Florida 0.4% 176 Westwood Christian (Miami) 1A South Florida 0.4% 177 West Port (Ocala) 4A North Central Florida 0.4% 178 Crestview 3A Panhandle 0.4% 179 Menendez (St. Augustine) 2A Northeast Florida 0.4% 180 Suncoast (Riviera Beach) 2A South Florida 0.4% 181 Countryside (Clearwater) 2A Tampa Bay 0.4% 182 Brooks DeBartolo (Tampa) 1A Tampa Bay 0.4% 183 Sickles (Tampa) 4A Tampa Bay 0.4% 184 Angeline Academy (Land O'Lakes) 1A Tampa Bay 0.4% 185 Olympia (Orlando) 4A Central Florida 0.4% 186 The Villages 1A North Central Florida 0.4% 187 Somerset Academy Charter South Homestead 1A South Florida 0.4% 188 Gulf (New Port Richey) 2A Tampa Bay 0.4% 189 Lakewood (St. Petersburg) 1A Tampa Bay 0.3% 190 South Fort Myers 2A Southwest Florida 0.3% 191 Keys Gate (Homestead) 1A South Florida 0.3% 192 Bell Creek (Riverview) 1A Tampa Bay 0.3% 193 Durant (Plant City) 4A Tampa Bay 0.3% 194 Royal Palm Beach 4A South Florida 0.3% 195 Boca Ciega (Gulfport) 1A Tampa Bay 0.3% 196 West Nassau (Callahan) 1A Northeast Florida 0.3% 197 Fernandina Beach 1A Northeast Florida 0.3% 198 Hialeah 2A South Florida 0.2% 199 Keystone Heights 1A Northeast Florida 0.2% 200 River Ridge (New Port Richey) 2A Tampa Bay 0.2% 201 Wakulla (Crawfordville) 2A Panhandle 0.2% 202 Tocoi Creek (St. Augustine) 4A Northeast Florida 0.2% 203 Bishop Snyder (Jacksonville) 1A Northeast Florida 0.2% 204 Pahokee 1A South Florida 0.2% 205 Don Soffer (Aventura) 1A South Florida 0.2% 206 Middleburg 3A Northeast Florida 0.2% 207 Riverside (Jacksonville) 2A Northeast Florida 0.2% 208 West Boca Raton 3A South Florida 0.2% 209 Atlantic Coast (Jacksonville) 4A Northeast Florida 0.2% 210 Forest Hill (West Palm Beach) 3A South Florida 0.2% 211 Dunnellon 2A North Central Florida 0.2% 212 Varela (Miami) 3A South Florida 0.2% 213 Chamberlain (Tampa) 2A Tampa Bay 0.2% 214 Lincoln Park Academy (Fort Pierce) 1A Space & Treasure Coast 0.2% 215 Matanzas (Palm Coast) 3A Central Florida 0.2% 216 Vanguard (Ocala) 2A North Central Florida 0.2% 217 Miami Carol City 1A South Florida 0.2% 218 Vero Beach 4A Space & Treasure Coast 0.2% 219 Destin 1A Panhandle 0.2% 220 Coral Springs Charter 1A South Florida 0.1% 221 Winter Haven 4A Tampa Bay 0.1% 222 Andrew Jackson (Jacksonville) 1A Northeast Florida 0.1% 223 iMater Prep (Hialeah) 1A South Florida 0.1% 224 Ridgeview (Davenport) 1A Central Florida 0.1% 225 Baldwin 1A Northeast Florida 0.1% 226 Bayshore Christian (Tampa) 1A Tampa Bay 0.1% 227 Faith Christian (Orlando) 1A Central Florida 0.1% 228 Cornerstone Charter (Belle Isle) 1A Central Florida 0.1% 229 Archbishop Carroll (Miami) 1A South Florida 0.1% 230 Dunbar (Fort Myers) 2A Southwest Florida 0.1% 231 Cardinal Newman (West Palm Beach) 1A South Florida 0.1% 232 Eagles View (Jacksonville) 1A Northeast Florida 0.1% 233 Braden River (Bradenton) 3A Southwest Florida 0.1% 234 Mitchell (New Port Richey) 3A Tampa Bay 0.1% 235 Classical Prep (Shady Hills) 1A Tampa Bay 0.1% 236 Sebring 3A Central Florida 0.1% 237 Central (Brooksville) 2A Tampa Bay 0.1% 238 Raines (Jacksonville) 2A Northeast Florida 0.1% 239 Pinellas Park (Largo) 3A Tampa Bay 0.1% 240 Florida Deaf and Blind (St. Augustine) 1A Northeast Florida 0.1% 241 Miami Central 2A South Florida 0.1% 242 Bartow 3A Tampa Bay 0.1% 243 Armwood (Seffner) 4A Tampa Bay 0.1% 244 Centennial (Port St. Lucie) 4A Space & Treasure Coast 0.1%

CHAMPIONSHIP PROBABILITY INSIGHTS

Championship Favorites by Classification:

Class 4A:

Alonso (Tampa) - 32.5%

Wellington - 23.0%

Western (Davie) - 20.2%

Class 3A:

Seminole Ridge (Westlake) - 32.8%

Homestead - 23.4%

Pace - 21.7%

Class 2A:

Robinson (Tampa) - 33.6%

Choctawhatchee (Fort Walton Beach) - 18.3%

Clay (Green Cove Springs) - 12.3%

Class 1A:

Wildwood - 33.0%

Miami Edison - 33.0%

Somerset Canyons (Boynton Beach) - 18.1%

These probabilities will update weekly throughout the season as results come in and ratings adjust. Check back each Monday for the latest championship probabilities.