FLORIDA POWER RANKINGS INDEX: Top 15 Flag Football State Championship Contenders &#8211; Week 5 Edition

Using the Florida Power Rankings Index (FPRI), we combine a two-year historical performance blend with strength of schedule, district placement, and projected playoff paths to calculate each team’s probability of winning a state championship.

Teams can reach the postseason by winning their district tournament or earning an at-large berth, and our model accounts for both scenarios as teams advance through the bracket toward the state finals.

Four weeks into the 2026 season, the data is already telling a new story.

Preseason favorites have held firm at the top, but several programs have made significant jumps, reshaping the championship picture across multiple classifications.

Here are the Top 15 teams with the best odds to bring home a state championship.

1. Clay (Green Cove Springs)

Classification: Class 2A Region: Northeast Florida State Championship Probability: Preseason – 12.3% | Now – 44.4%

Quick Thoughts: No team has surged more in Florida than Clay. Entering the season just outside the Top 15, the Blue Devils have exploded into the No. 1 spot with dominant early performances. What once looked like a playoff contender now looks like a legitimate state title favorite in Class 2A.

2. Robinson (Tampa)

Classification: Class 2A Region: Tampa Bay State Championship Probability: Preseason – 33.6% | Now – 44.2%

Quick Thoughts: It is still no surprise to see the Knights near the top. The dynasty continues to roll, and if anything, Robinson has strengthened its grip on Class 2A. A 10th consecutive state championship remains well within reach.

3. Seminole Ridge (Westlake)

Classification: Class 3A Region: South Florida State Championship Probability: Preseason – 32.8% | Now – 44.0%

Quick Thoughts: The Hawks have backed up every bit of preseason hype and then some. Already viewed as a contender, Seminole Ridge has elevated into the elite tier statewide and looks poised to defend its crown.

4. Alonso (Tampa)

Classification: Class 4A Region: Tampa Bay State Championship Probability: Preseason – 32.5% | Now – 43.8%

Quick Thoughts: The Ravens continue to thrive in the state’s most competitive classification. With early-season success reinforcing their position, Alonso remains one of the most complete teams in Class 4A.

5. Miami Edison

Classification: Class 1A Region: South Florida State Championship Probability: Preseason – 33.0% | Now – 38.6%

Quick Thoughts: The Red Raiders have done exactly what was expected—win. While others have surged, Edison has remained steady and dominant as they pursue back-to-back state titles.

6. Wellington

Classification: Class 4A Region: South Florida State Championship Probability: Preseason – 23.0% | Now – 32.0%

Quick Thoughts: Wellington has quietly climbed into a stronger position than where they started. After a heartbreaking loss in last year’s championship, the Wolverines look determined to finish the job in 2026.

7. Bonita Springs

Classification: Class 2A Region: Southwest Florida State Championship Probability: Preseason – 2.2% | Now – 29.7%

Quick Thoughts: One of the biggest surprises in the state. Bonita Springs has gone from outside the conversation to firmly in it, showing early that the Bull Sharks are capable of making a deep postseason run.

8. Ponte Vedra

Classification: Class 3A Region: Northeast Florida State Championship Probability: Preseason – 4.6% | Now – 29.3%

Quick Thoughts: Ponte Vedra has made one of the most dramatic jumps in the state. Their early results have completely reshaped expectations, putting the Sharks squarely in the title hunt.

9. Wildwood

Classification: Class 1A Region: North Central Florida State Championship Probability: Preseason – 33.0% | Now – 28.7%

Quick Thoughts: The Wildcats remain a major contender despite a slight dip in probability. Their experience and talent still make them one of the most dangerous teams in Class 1A.

10. Deltona

Classification: Class 2A Region: Central Florida State Championship Probability: Preseason – 1.9% | Now – 27.4%

Quick Thoughts: Deltona has been one of the fastest risers in Florida. The Wolves' strong start has completely changed their trajectory, turning them into a serious contender in Class 2A.

11. Park Vista (Lake Worth)

Classification: Class 4A Region: South Florida State Championship Probability: Preseason – 4.4% | Now – 27.4%

Quick Thoughts: Park Vista has surged into the spotlight with a strong early-season showing. Now the Cobras look like a real threat in a loaded Class 4A field.

12. Paxon (Jacksonville)

Classification: Class 2A Region: Northeast Florida State Championship Probability: Preseason – 4.6% | Now – 25.1%

Quick Thoughts: Paxon has taken a major step forward this season. The Golden Eagles' rise reflects both improved performance and a favorable path developing toward the postseason.

13. Celebration

Classification: Class 4A Region: Central Florida State Championship Probability: Preseason – 7.7% | Now – 24.2%

Quick Thoughts: Celebration continues to build momentum. Their steady climb suggests the Storm is emerging as a legitimate contender in Class 4A.

14. Osceola (Seminole)

Classification: Class 2A Region: Tampa Bay State Championship Probability: Preseason – 2.8% | Now – 24.0%

Quick Thoughts: Osceola has made one of the biggest jumps in the state rankings. The Warriors' early success has quickly elevated them into the championship conversation.

15. Stoneman Douglas (Parkland)

Classification: Class 4A Region: South Florida State Championship Probability: Preseason – 10.1% | Now – 22.7%

Quick Thoughts: Stoneman Douglas has reestablished itself as a contender in Class 4A. With strong early performances, the Eagles are trending upward at the right time.

NEXT FIVE OUT

Chiles (Tallahassee) – Class 3A (19.4%); East Bay (Gibsonton) – Class 3A (18.4%); Choctawhatchee (Fort Walton Beach) – Class 2A (18.3%); Gateway Charter (Fort Myers) – Class 3A (17.4%); Hernando (Brooksville) – Class 2A (16.3%)

📉 DROPPED OUT OF TOP 15

Homestead – Class 3A (23.4% → 7.6%); Pace – Class 3A (21.7% → 0.3%); Western (Davie) – Class 4A (20.2% → 14.8%); Fort Pierce Central – Class 4A (19.9% → 5.0%); Lennard (Ruskin) – Class 4A (18.1% → 14.4%); Somerset Canyons (Boynton Beach) – Class 1A (18.1% → 11.4%); Miami Palmetto – Class 4A (18.0% → 14.4%); St. Thomas Aquinas (Fort Lauderdale) – Class 3A (18.0% → 13.3%)

Several preseason contenders have seen their championship odds take a hit through the first four weeks, whether due to early losses, strength of schedule shifts, or the emergence of new challengers across multiple classifications.