2025 FOOTBALL SCHEDULE ANALYSIS: Jones looks to repeat quest for elusive state championship with familiar foes

OVERVIEW

Coming off an exciting finish in the Class 4A state championship, where the Tigers fell just short of the school’s first state football championship, the Tigers will have a schedule that will give them balance. But will a couple of the opponents' potential be a determinant along the way to having top playoff positioning? That is a possibility.

2025 SCHEDULE

Kickoff 7:00 pm unless noted

* – District

Week 1 – Fri. 8/22: at Winter Park

Week 2 – Fri. 8/29: at Timber Creek (Orlando)

Week 3 – Fri. 9/5: vs. Evans (Orlando)

Week 4 – Fri. 9/12: at Edgewater (Orlando)

Week 5 – Fri. 9/19: vs. Osceola (Kissimmee)

Week 6 – Fri. 9/26: vs. Auburndale*

Week 7 – Fri. 10/3: BYE WEEK

Week 8 – Fri. 10/10: at Lake Wales*, 7:30

Week 9 – Fri. 10/17: at Wekiva (Apopka)

Week 10 – Fri. 10/24: Lake Region (Eagle Lake)*

Week 11 – Fri. 10/31: Ocoee

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE

While some will say Jones has a strong schedule, when we dive deep into the nuts and bolts with strength of schedule, the combined SOS with our formula, which accounts for the last three years, is at .534, which is about middle of the road. However, this is not to say that this schedule will not be without its challenging moments. We feel that the two opponents will be the most formidable opponents for the Tigers, with Osceola coming off a state runner-up finish in Class 6A and Edgewater who will enter 2025 with a new head coach. Lake Region will be the easiest opponent, a district foe who has been struggling for a long while.

KEY GAMES & MUST-WATCH MATCHUPS

Edgewater will find that the most important game on the district schedule will be Lake Wales again, as they are the most formidable district opponent. With that game coming in Week 8, securing a playoff berth or waiting on the playoff rankings to determine how the postseason could go will have the most significant implications. When we look back at the most formidable opponents, it will be the two most critical non-district games. If we had to choose one to be the top non-district matchup, we should lean on the game with Osceola, given that they are coming off a state championship appearance.

HOME VS. AWAY BALANCE

The schedule sets a fair balance of home and away games, with five home games and five away games. However, looking at things further, the Tigers will have three of their five road games within the first four weeks of the season, but none of those games will take them out of Orange County. But it also should be noted that Jones will have no more than two home games in a row before hitting the road or before the end of the regular season draws to a close. With four of the five road games staying within Orange County, the most extended road trip for Jones will be the trip to Lake Wales, a 53-mile journey to Legion Field in Week 8.

OPPONENT BREAKDOWN

Five of the 10 opponents on the schedule were playoff teams from 2024, none of which were defending state champions. Osceola, a state runner-up, is the top opponent on the schedule. The schedule keeps the same opponents as the 2024 schedule, so there are no new notable opponents and no out-of-state games on the slate for the Tigers in 2025.

BYE WEEK PLACEMENT

With the hurricanes impacting the state last season and Florida’s notorious summer afternoon thunderstorms, the Tigers might view the bye week as somewhat of a musical chair that could be moved around. However, for now, the bye week is situated almost ideally at the midway mark of the season and just before the key critical district game with Lake Wales. If the schedule goes according to plan, the bye week could genuinely help the Tigers be rested in what will help them determine their path to the playoffs.

PLAYOFF IMPLICATIONS

District games with Lake Wales and Auburndale will matter the most in getting to the playoffs, while the games with Edgewater and Osceola will provide the most room to give the Tigers a potential No. 1 seed in Class 4A-Region 2. Jones overall in our thoughts should finish with no lower than earning a No. 2 seed in their region.

PREDICTED RECORD & FINAL THOUGHTS

The Tigers went a perfect 10-0 in the regular season this schedule, but it should be noted that they took overtime to defeat Osceola. In the worst-case scenario, we see the Tigers going 8-2 overall, with most likely losses coming with Osceola and Edgewater, where the two losses could come. In the best-case scenario, we could see the Tigers quickly going for another perfect season record at 10-0. Overall, we feel Jones will go 9-1 overall, with their one loss coming against either Osceola or Edgewater.