FLAG FOOTBALL: Class 3A regional quarterfinals preview

The FHSAA Flag Football State Series kicks off tomorrow (Wednesday) around the state with regional quarterfinals in all four classifications. Here is a look at Class 3A with our regional quarterfinals preview with five games to watch, statistical leaders in six different categories, SOS rankings, and FPRI Game Forecast:

FIVE GAMES TO WATCH

REGION 1

No. 4 Ponte Vedra (13-2) at No. 5 Oviedo (11-0)

FPRI Forecast: Oviedo 1 over Ponte Vedra

This is a very interesting playoff matchup in the 4 vs. 5 pairings with first-year Ponte Vedra earning a playoff berth with Oviedo winning the district 3A-4 championship in their second year of the sport. With that said, it might be no surprise that this game could be a very close one as the forecast indicates as both teams appear to be very similar on paper. The visiting Sharks led by two-way player Izzy Murray – who is only a sophomore and averages almost 192 yards per game and has a favorite target in freshman Julia Conroy who is averaging almost 10 points per game. For the host Lions Ansley Devos has been their strong hold at quarterback averaging 136 yards per game with Lily McCaslin being Devos’ favorite target. In regards to Strength of Schedule Ponte Vedra ranks with the 79th in the state according to The Florida Power Rankings Index with an SOS of 1.687 while Oviedo ranks 134th at 1.648.

No. 6 Fleming Island (11-3) at No. 3 Fletcher (Neptune Beach) (14-2), Thursday, 6:30

FPRI Forecast: Fletcher 8 over Fleming Island

Not only is this a rematch from the District 3A-3 tournament this is also a rematch from last year’s Class 2A playoffs in which Fletcher has defeated Fleming Island now twice in a row. With this being the second meeting for both the Golden Eagles and the Senators in the last week, the stakes are higher than ever as the season is fully on the line for both teams. Statistically comparing the two teams, Devyn Dudones for the Golden Eagles is averaging just around 157 yards per game compared to her counterpart for the Senators as Jasmine Cross is averaging over 200 yards per game. Those differences along are part of the reason why the Senators were able to defeat Fleming Island last week in the district tournament. This could end up being the same thing once more in this matchup – which noted is being played Thursday instead of Wednesday, due to a school issue with Lacrosse also having a home playoff game on the same day and as such, it gives these two teams an extra day to prepare. According to the Florida Power Rankings Index, Fletcher ranks with the 26th best overall strength of schedule in the state with an SOS of 1.749 while Fleming Island ranks 34th overall with an SOS of 1.731.

REGION 2

No. 5 Martin County (Stuart) (15-2) at No. 4 South Fork (Stuart) (13-3)

FPRI Forecast: Martin County 3 over South Fork

A rematch between in-county foes, marking the third meeting between the Tigers and the Bulldogs, can third time be the charm for Martin County? That is the question that weighs heavy for Martin County having lost to South Fork in the regular season 19-0 and then again in the District 3A-7 semifinals, 7-0. With that said the Tigers must be able to counterbalance the Bulldogs’ nearly 211 yards the average per game and a lot of that will be having to have a different game plan to limit Savannah Tatum who is averaging over 192 yards per game. Now on the flip slide, the Bulldogs have been effective in both games in making sure Calista Scornavacca has not gotten the ball in the end zone through the air or on the ground. Scornavacca has been averaging just over 154 yards per game and will certainly need a way to overcome the Bulldogs if they want to advance on to the regional semifinals. The Tigers rank tied 258th overall on strength of schedule with an SOS of 1.583 while South Fork ranks 126th overall on strength of schedule with an SOS of 1.654.

REGION 3

No. 6 Riverdale (Fort Myers) (9-3) at No. 3 East Lake (Tarpon Springs) (11-4)

FPRI Forecast: Riverdale 7 over East Lake

Riverdale has only played 12 overall games compared to East Lake’s 15 games, but don’t let that fool you as Riverdale already has some experience with the playoffs on their own accord in their second year of fielding the sport. The visiting Raiders, who are district champions for the second year in a row come into this looking advancing deep this season, a goal they had set since their exit from the playoffs last season. East Lake, which has been building up over the years, clinched their district championship last week and look to make some noise in the playoffs. On paper, both of the teams are very similar in style when as they don’t put up a ton of yards per game. For Riverdale, keep an eye on Zoe O’Nan who is averaging just over 121 yards per game and that is compared to the host Eagles’ Taylor Feeley who is averaging 137 yards per game. The biggest difference here is that Feely is averaging over 110 yards passing per game while O’Nan is averaging just 92 yards passing per game. That striking difference could be the key in this game where a little more throwing might be warranted. According to The Florida Power Rankings Index, Riverdale ranks 234th in the state on strength of schedule with an SOS rating of 1.593 while East Lake ranks 135th with an SOS of 1.645.

REGION 4

No. 5 Miami Southridge (9-6) at No. 4 Everglades (Miramar) (9-3), 4:30

FPRI Forecast: Everglades 10 over Miami Southridge

This is one of those games that could be a potential trap game for Everglades as Miami Southridge has had more experience over the last decade navigating the playoff race. When we look at the teams with their strength of schedule, according to The Florida Power Rankings Index, it tells a different story though as the host Gators rank 43rd overall in the state with an SOS rating of 1.723. That is compared to the visiting Spartans’ rank 102nd overall with an SOS rating of 1.668. On paper when it comes to statistical leaders, both teams are very similar with their quarterbacks leading the way with Miami Southridges’ Mary Quinones averaging nearly 150 yards per game while Everglades’ Leilah Lewin is averaging nearly 170 yards per game. That 20 yards difference in average could be the difference of points in this game that could have the Gators ending the season for the Spartans.

STATISTICAL LEADERS

Here is a look at the top five statistical leaders in six different categories from the teams that are in the Class 3A playoffs.

PASSING

Jerniyah Fowles, Homestead – 328-of-462, 3,765 yards, 39 TDs, 11 INTs

Aubrey Fogel, Seminole Ridge (Westlake) – 302-of-433, 3,431 yards, 45 TDs, 11 INTs

Kaila Pierce, Bartram Trail (St. Johns) – 345-of-536, 3,258 yards, 41 TDs, 23 INTs

Amaya Pablo, Pace – 301-of-429, 2,897 yards, 49 TDs, 6 INTs

Sophia Spiegel, Land O’ Lakes – 276-of-383, 2,760 yards, 53 TDs, 9 INTs

RUSHING

Savannah Tatum, South Fork (Stuart) – 138 carries, 1,248 yards, 17 TDs

Dezrihana Medina, Nova (Davie) – 84 carries, 980 yards, 10 TDs

Jasmine Cross, Fletcher – 105 carries, 967 yards, 13 TDs

J’Ziyah Munford, Springstead – 122 carries, 814 yards, 9 TDs

Sophia Spiegel, Land O’ Lakes – 94 carries, 771 yards, 8 TDs

RECEIVING

Jazalyn Baluja, East Bay (Gibsonton) – 128 receptions, 1,228 yards, 26 TDs

Lily Holden, Bartram Trail (St. Johns) – 105 receptions, 1,142 yards, 14 TDs

Caitylyn Gibson, Homestead – 68 receptions, 935 yards, 19 TDs

Jakyra Bostick, Belleview – 87 receptions, 923 yards, 22 TDs

Loursenie Pascal, Nova (Davie) – 59 receptions, 868 yards, 9 TDs

FLAG PULLS

Isabella Romero, Bartram Trail (St. Johns) – 103

Emily Good, Pace – 102

Bella Maurice, Belleview – 102

Marissa Dadko, South Fork (Stuart) – 94

Delaney Gribben, Martin County (Stuart) – 91

SACKS

Aimee Colson, St. Thomas Aquinas (Fort Lauderdale) – 35

Kiara Hernandez, Oviedo – 30

Payton Ward, Tampa Bay Tech – 25

Ali Harllee, Chiles (Tallahassee) – 21

Marlie Massillon, Boyd Anderson (Lauderdale Lakes) - 19

INTERCEPTIONS

Taylor Booth, Buchholz (Gainesville) – 22

Ronneisha Thomas, St. Thomas Aquinas (Fort Lauderdale) – 15

Julia Conroy, Ponte Vedra – 14

Chachi Saunders, Seminole Ridge (Westlake) – 13

Savannah Tatum, South Fork (Stuart) – 13

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE RANKINGS

Top 10 teams based on Strength of Schedule among Class 3A playoff teams, according to The Florida Power Rankings Index

1. Seminole Ridge (Westlake) – 1.820

2. St. Thomas Aquinas (Fort Lauderdale) – 1.779

3. Homestead – 1.771

4. Fletcher (Neptune Beach) – 1.749

5. Bartram Trail (St. Johns) – 1.746

6. Navarre – 1.743

7. Nova (Davie) – 1.738

8. Fleming Island – 1.731

T9. Pace – 1.724

T9. Chiles (Tallahassee) – 1.724

The 10 lowest rated teams based on Strength of Schedule among Class 3A playoff teams, according to The Florida Power Rankings Index

1. Martin County (Stuart) – 1.583

2. Manatee (Bradenton) – 1.586

3. Riverdale (Fort Myers) – 1.593

4. Buchholz (Gainesville) – 1.603

5. Mariner (Cape Coral) – 1.616

6. Parrish Community – 1.620

7. North Fort Myers – 1.621

8. Atlantic (Delray Beach) – 1.631

9. Land O’ Lakes – 1.641

10. East Lake – 1.648

FLORIDA POWER RANKINGS INDEX FORECAST

Remaining games not previewed

REGION 1

No. 8 Bartram Trail (St. Johns) (15-1) at No. 1 Pace (13-5), 6 CDT Pace 34 over Bartram Trail

No. 7 Navarre (10-6) at No. 2 Chiles (Tallahassee) (11-4) Chiles 16 over Navarre

REGION 2

No. 8 Lakeland (5-3) at No. 1 Seminole Ridge (Westlake) (12-2) Seminole Ridge 31 over Lakeland

No. 6 Springstead (Spring Hill) (11-6) at No. 3 Land O' Lakes (15-1) Land O’ Lakes 17 over Springstead

No. 7 Buchholz (Gainesville) (11-2) at No. 2 Belleview (14-3) Belleview 17 over Buchholz

REGION 3

No. 8 Mariner (Cape Coral) (8-3) at No. 1 East Bay (Gibsonton) (14-3) East Bay 32 over Mariner

No. 5 Tampa Bay Tech (9-6) at No. 4 Parrish Community (11-3) Parrish Community 4 over Tampa Bay Tech

No. 7 Manatee (Bradenton) (12-4) at No. 2 North Fort Myers (9-0) North Fort Myers 8 over Manatee

REGION 4

No. 8 Atlantic (Delray Beach) (9-6) at No. 1 St. Thomas Aquinas (Fort Lauderdale) (14-1) St. Thomas Aquinas 43 over Atlantic

No. 6 Braddock (Miami) (11-4) at No. 3 Boyd Anderson (Lauderdale Lakes) (14-2) Boyd Anderson 34 over Braddock

No. 7 Nova (Davie) (11-5) at No. 2 Homestead (13-4) Homestead 16 over Nova

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FLAG FOOTBALL: Class 3A regional quarterfinals preview

Five games to watch, top statistical leaders for playoff teams and forecasts in this Class 3A playoff preview

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